Old Dominion at South Florida - 2025 Matchup Preview
Old Dominion logo Old Dominion Monarchs vs South Florida BullsSouth Florida logo
Wednesday, December 17th 2025 (5:00 PM EST)
South Florida -4 (52.5) (-192)  Open: 0.0
Old Dominion 24 - South Florida: 10  (StaffDNA Cure Bowl)

 
Monarchs (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Ricky Rahne (20 - 30)
Avg Score : 32 - 19 (31 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 3.8 (#33)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 8)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: South Florida -14.5  (SP+ USF -8)

Projected Score: ODU: 20 - USF: 35 (55)
USF Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
ODU Travel: 714 miles
Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (13 - 12)
Avg Score : 41 - 23 (51 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.9 - 3.1 (#22)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Old Dominion's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Old Dominion at Indiana+23.554.5L 14 - 27UY
Sat 9/6 Old Dominion vs North Carolina Central-22.050.5W 54 - 6OY
Sat 9/13 Old Dominion at Virginia Tech+5.550.5W 45 - 26OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Old Dominion vs Liberty-14.553.5W 21 - 7UN
Sat 10/4 Old Dominion vs Coastal Carolina-18.553.5W 47 - 7OY
Sat 10/11 Old Dominion at Marshall-14.557.5L 24 - 48ON
Sat 10/18 Old Dominion at James Madison+3.047.5L 27 - 63ON
Sat 10/25 Old Dominion vs App State-12.560.5W 24 - 21UN
Sat 11/1 Old Dominion at UL Monroe-16.555.5W 31 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/13 Old Dominion vs Troy-9.553.5W 33 - 0UY
Sat 11/22 Old Dominion at Georgia Southern-10.062.0W 45 - 10UY
Sat 11/29 Old Dominion vs Georgia State-29.058.5W 27 - 10UN
Wed 12/17 Old Dominion vs South Florida+4.052.5W 24 - 10UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 7
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 6
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Old Dominion's Schedule
South Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 South Florida vs Boise State+8.563.5W 34 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 South Florida at Florida+18.558.0W 18 - 16UY
Sat 9/13 South Florida at Miami+17.556.5L 12 - 49ON
Sat 9/20 South Florida vs South Carolina State-36.056.5W 63 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/3 South Florida vs Charlotte-28.554.5W 54 - 26ON
Fri 10/10 South Florida at North Texas+2.568.5W 63 - 36OY
Sat 10/18 South Florida vs Florida Atlantic-20.572.5W 48 - 13UY
Sat 10/25 South Florida at Memphis-3.558.5L 31 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6 South Florida vs UTSA-14.066.5W 55 - 23OY
Sat 11/15 South Florida at Navy-8.562.5L 38 - 41ON
Sat 11/22 South Florida at UAB-21.568.5W 48 - 18UY
Sat 11/29 South Florida vs Rice-28.557.5W 52 - 3UY
Wed 12/17 South Florida vs Old Dominion-4.052.5L 10 - 24UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ODU#28 (.25)46% (30)3247% (30)3.19 (25)23944% (44)2163.94 (48)#8 (.03)39% (40)18.545% (101)34% (11)3.03 (20)53.81.82
USF#15 (.31)46% (27)40.547% (28)3.33 (14)21246% (28)2764.45 (21)#25 (.07)38% (24)23.438% (17)38% (40)3.15 (29)611.51.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ODU#47 (.22)42% (71)45% (55)3.24 (34)21140% (89)1934.75 (6)#71 (.17)39% (33)38% (22)40% (64)3.64 (50)54.21.71.4
USF#83 (.17)38% (118)39% (112)3.06 (60)18138% (106)2273.88 (74)#66 (.16)39% (36)38% (17)40% (69)4 (88)70.91.42.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ODU Offense13323145.9%3.941.8224552392165.658%41%47%44%14%.25
USF Defense1323.414.337.8%3.151.9 - - - - - 48%51%38%38%16%.07
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ODU Defense1318.53039.2%3.032 - - - - - 50%47%45%34%19%.03
USF Offense1340.55146.4%4.451.5244882122765.551%48%47%46%14%.31

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Old Dominion1328:2922.541%31%653.81.826.93030.3
South Florida1325:2423.846%59%6.6611.51.96.52.5329.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ODU Offense1358% (16)47% (30)42.5238.95.631 (49).14 (60)3.19 (25)64% (114)10% (76)0.96 (71)
USF Defense1348% (46)38% (17) - - - - .02 (23)2.63 (20)79% (120)11% (43)1.06 (113)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ODU Defense1350% (72)45% (101) - - - - .01 (22)2.91 (75)62% (14)12% (15)0.78 (5)
USF Offense1351% (55)47% (28)38.8212.25.529 (30).18 (39)3.33 (14)81% (10)8% (25)0.98 (60)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ODU Offense1341% (121)44% (44)14.725.42168.514.721 (22)10 (119).41 (22)1.8 (6)28% (17)35% (23).5 (11)4% (19)2.3 (3)
USF Defense1351% (94)38% (40) - - - - - - 14 (6).17 (37)1.6 (68)37% (8)27% (38).23 (44)6% (81)2 (53)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ODU Defense1347% (51)34% (11) - - - - - - 15 (55).09 (9)1.5 (34)30% (94)25% (16).21 (33)7% (34)1.8 (12)
USF Offense1348% (80)46% (28)20.831.2275.68.813.333 (8)11 (60).48 (8)1.7 (14)29% (24)30% (75).43 (23)6% (81)2.3 (5)

Old Dominion's Power Ratings
Old Dominion's Power Rating: -2.15  #76
Old Dominion's Offense Rating: 7.09  #78
Old Dominion's Defense Rating: 9.24  #75
2025 Talent Rating: 328.00  #130
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #79
Old Dominion's 2025 Expected Record: 9.2 - 3.8
Old Dominion's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.4  #48
Old Dominion's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.0  #41
Old Dominion's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8  #52

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Old Dominion: -2.15   South Florida: 16.425

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Old Dominion: 6.4   South Florida: 14.6




South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 16.425  #23
South Florida's Offense Rating: 22.95  #12
South Florida's Defense Rating: 4.70  #44
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00  #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
South Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 9.9 - 3.1
South Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.6  #23
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.9  #10
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3  #58

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Old Dominion Scoring
Offense: 32 PPG
Offense on Road: 31
Defense: 18.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 30

Old Dominion's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
South Florida 35
Old Dominion 20


Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
South Florida 29
Old Dominion 27

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
South Florida 35
Old Dominion 25

Total Points: 60
South Florida Scoring
Offense: 40.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 51
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.3

South Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202512/17South Florida10Old Dominion24South Florida -4Old Dominion52.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
South Florida000 Overs
Old Dominion111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0

Old Dominion Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Cure Bowl Old Dominion vs South Florida+4.052.5W 24 - 10
2023Toastery Bowl Old Dominion vs Western Kentucky-4.049.0L 35 - 38
2021Beach Bowl Old Dominion vs Tulsa+7.555.0L 17 - 30
South Florida Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Cure Bowl South Florida vs Old Dominion-4.052.5L 10 - 24
2024I Bowl South Florida vs San José State-1.566.5W 41 - 39
2023Raton Bowl South Florida vs Syracuse+3.056.0W 45 - 0
  
(#76) ODU at (#23) USF
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatODUUSF
Power RatePwr #76 #23
SP+SP+ #48 #23
Perf GradeGrade #40 #29
OffenseOff #50 #15
DefenseDef #24 #61
Spec TeamsST #112 #75
TalentTal #130 #30
Blue ChipsBC% #79 #79
Old Dominion Notes
(12/2) QB Colton Joseph will enter portal. Huge loss
(10/21) Killed by JMU, Def dogwalked, Rush Off tanked, 3 TO
(10/12) Def torched in awful L vs Marshall. Season derailer?
(10/7) Off is dropping big time #'s, Monarchs #1 SBC team?
(10/7) QB Colton Joseph is the best QB no one has heard of
(9/15) Joseph torched VT, great W for ODU, Off good
(9/7) LB Henderson retired. Big loss & blow to Def
(8/30) Run game good vs IU, Run Def torched 300+
(8/1) QB Joseph back, mobile. Good red zone runner
(8/1) WR/TE rebuild, little exp. Rahne like units though
(8/1) Def Avg LY, returns a ton. Added 8 DB portals
(8/1) Emerging team with upward trajectory this year
Old Dominion Injury Report
South Florida Notes
(12/16) Hiring Tim Beck as OC for reasons unknown.
(12/3) Hiring OSU OC Brian Hartline, Golesh left for Auburn
(10/10) Mauled N Texas, over 600 yds offense, 300 rushing
(10/4) Still running QB Brown 17 times in Char blowout?
(8/29) QB Brown great vs Boise, tough runner. Big W
(8/28) LB good, exp'd. Starters have over 40 starts
(7/12) Golesh go-go offense could fun after Sept
(6/2) RBs Franklin (OU) & Norton (Char) added
(5/11) OL top 10 exp, 78% returning, 22% via portal
(3/23) QB Brown vs Archie, both inconsistent LY
(3/23) WR lost #1, Nimrod (Tenn)/Singleton good
(3/23) OL returns 4/5. 3 more with exp, 2 portals
South Florida Injury Report
Old Dominion on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
ODU OffUSF Def
Perf GradePerf #50 #61
SuccessSuc #30 #24
ExplosiveExp #41 #107
PPAPPA #28 #25
PowerPwr #78 #44
SP+SP+ #41 #58
Pts POPPO #48 #29
HavocHav #44 #58
Old Dominion Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
ODU OffUSF Def
Run GameRun #18 #74
Run SuccessRSuc #30 #17
Run ExplRExp #71 #113
PPAExp #60 #23
Run BlockR Blk #119 -
OL YdsOLY #25 #20
Stuff RateStuff #23 #16
TackleTak -  #130
Old Dominion Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
ODU OffUSF Def
Pass GamePass #64 #70
Pass SuccessPSuc #44 #40
Pass ExplPExl #6 #68
PPAExp #22 #37
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #30 #18
F7 HavocF7 #76 #43
DB HavocDB #19 #81
South Florida on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatUSF OffODU Def
Perf GradePerf #15 #24
SuccessSuc #27 #40
ExplosiveExp #28 #1
PPAPPA #15 #8
PowerPwr #12 #75
SP+SP+ #10 #52
Pts POPPO #21 #20
HavocHav #44 #17
South Florida Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
USF OffODU Def
Run GameRun #19 #44
Run SuccessRSuc #28 #101
Run ExplRExp #60 #5
PPAExp #39 #22
Run BlockR Blk #48 -
OL YdsOLY #14 #75
Stuff RateStuff #11 #42
TackleTak -  #111
South Florida Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatUSF OffODU Def
Pass GamePass #9 #6
Pass SuccessPSuc #28 #11
Pass ExplPExl #14 #34
PPAExp #8 #9
Pass Block/RushP Blk #15 #86
F7 HavocF7 #25 #15
DB HavocDB #81 #34
Program Comparison
USF 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

ODU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Camping World Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 70° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 1
South Florida -4.0 (52.5)
Old Dominion won at South Florida this year (24-10)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
ODU's OC Kevin Decker (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Colton Joseph17328860%261921109.1
Quinn Henicle174043%184004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Colton Joseph1571011136.478
Trequan Jones10579267.593
Devin Roche11163445.767
Ke'Travion Hargrove (Tr)6426844.229
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre' Brown III38762420.198
Ja'Cory Thomas41714517.455
Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding51667613.146
Ke'Travion Hargrove (Tr)6192232.080

View Old Dominion's Full Roster

ODU's DC Blake Seiler (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mario Easterly802034
Jerome Carter763022
Jeremy Mack Jr.7510633
Jahleel Culbreath7110330
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jeremy Mack Jr.7510633
Jackson Forrest527510
Kris Trinidad337443
Javen Gibson245410
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Crutchfield350006
Zion Frink601006
Nickendre Stiger (Tr)463005

USF's OC Joel Gordon (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Byrum Brown22634166%31582879.3
Gaston Moore (Tr)344871%290226.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Byrum Brown1751008145.860
Nykahi Davenport9861276.260
Sam Franklin (Tr)8047445.973
Alvon Isaac7335004.849
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keshaun Singleton50877817.566
Jeremiah Koger38597815.763
Mudia Reuben (Tr)36495513.860
Chas Nimrod (Tr)23466320.355

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Todd Orlando (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhalyn Shuler1059368
Mac Harris1038672
Tavin Ward602002
De'Shawn Rucker582004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mac Harris1038672
Jarvis Lee Jr.5512442
Ricardo Watson497351
Jhalyn Shuler1059368
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhalyn Shuler1059368
De'Shawn Rucker582004
Jonas Duclona (Tr)353104