Rice at South Florida - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 29th 2025 (7:00 PM EST)
South Florida -28.5 (57.5) (-6000) Open: -26.5 | 59.5
South Florida 52 - Rice: 3 (American Athletic)

Owls (5 - 8) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Scott Abell (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 33 (14 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.1 - 7.9 (#85)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)

USF is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: South Florida -30 (SP+ USF -26)
Projected Score: RICE: 14 - USF: 44 (57)
USF Win prob: 97% | Cover: 52%
RICE Travel: 790 miles, 1 hrs behind

Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (13 - 12)
Avg Score : 41 - 23 (51 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.9 - 3.1 (#22)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
RICE Players
USF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Rice's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Rice at Louisiana	+14.5	49.5	W 14 - 12	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Rice vs Houston	+13.5	38.5	L 9 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/13	Rice vs Prairie View A&M	-29.5	48.5	W 38 - 17	O	N
Thu 9/18	Rice at Charlotte	-1.5	41.5	W 28 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Rice at Navy	+14.0	45.5	L 13 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/4	Rice vs Florida Atlantic	-4.5	54.5	L 21 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/11	Rice at UTSA	+8.5	48.5	L 13 - 61	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25	Rice vs UConn	+10.5	48.5	W 37 - 34	O	Y
Fri 10/31	Rice vs Memphis	+13.5	48.5	L 14 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/8	Rice vs UAB	+1.5	51.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22	Rice vs North Texas	+18.5	57.0	L 24 - 56	O	N
Sat 11/29	Rice at South Florida	+28.5	57.5	L 3 - 52	U	N
Fri 1/2	Rice vs Texas State	+19.5	55.5	L 10 - 41	U	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 1

Predictions for Rice's Schedule

South Florida's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	South Florida vs Boise State	+8.5	63.5	W 34 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/6	South Florida at Florida	+18.5	58.0	W 18 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/13	South Florida at Miami	+17.5	56.5	L 12 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/20	South Florida vs South Carolina State	-36.0	56.5	W 63 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/3	South Florida vs Charlotte	-28.5	54.5	W 54 - 26	O	N
Fri 10/10	South Florida at North Texas	+2.5	68.5	W 63 - 36	O	Y
Sat 10/18	South Florida vs Florida Atlantic	-20.5	72.5	W 48 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/25	South Florida at Memphis	-3.5	58.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6	South Florida vs UTSA	-14.0	66.5	W 55 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/15	South Florida at Navy	-8.5	62.5	L 38 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/22	South Florida at UAB	-21.5	68.5	W 48 - 18	U	Y
Sat 11/29	South Florida vs Rice	-28.5	57.5	W 52 - 3	U	Y
Wed 12/17	South Florida vs Old Dominion	-4.0	52.5	L 10 - 24	U	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
RICE	#126 (.05)	35% (127)	19.1	36% (127)	2.7 (118)	115	35% (121)	239	3.27 (119)	#60 (.16)	37% (11)	32.9	40% (37)	34% (4)	3.72 (62)	57.4	1.8	1
USF	#83 (.17)	38% (118)	40.5	39% (112)	3.06 (60)	181	38% (106)	227	3.88 (74)	#66 (.16)	39% (36)	23.4	38% (17)	40% (69)	4 (88)	70.9	1.4	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
RICE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
RICE Offense	12	19.1	14.2	35.5%	3.27	1.8	18	354	115	239	4.6	37%	62%	36%	35%	20%	.05
USF Defense	13	23.4	14.3	39.2%	4	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	38%	40%	20%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
RICE Defense	12	32.9	32.6	37%	3.72	1	-	-	-	-	-	55%	45%	40%	34%	17%	.16
USF Offense	13	40.5	51	38.3%	3.88	1.4	20	408	181	227	4.8	48%	52%	39%	38%	15%	.17

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Rice	12	28:40	18.3	35%	35%	7.1	57.4	1.8	1	6.3	2.7	2	32.6
South Florida	13	25:10	20.4	39%	56%	8.1	70.9	1.4	2.1	8.1	2.5	2	30.7

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
RICE Offense	12	37% (132)	36% (127)	24.8	114.5	4.6	14 (98)	-.03 (126)	2.7 (118)	86% (3)	10% (63)	1 (55)
USF Defense	13	49% (46)	38% (17)	-	-	-	-	.04 (26)	2.63 (18)	70% (48)	13% (11)	1.13 (121)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
RICE Defense	12	55% (112)	40% (37)	-	-	-	-	.16 (85)	3.06 (80)	76% (83)	11% (45)	1.07 (103)
USF Offense	13	48% (82)	39% (112)	37.8	180.8	4.8	34 (10)	.2 (32)	3.06 (60)	66% (114)	10% (62)	1.26 (3)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
RICE Offense	12	62% (4)	35% (121)	24.3	39.8	239	6	9.8	17 (79)	13 (103)	.11 (121)	1.5 (97)	38% (129)	25% (119)	.17 (119)	10% (133)	1.9 (104)
USF Defense	13	51% (91)	40% (69)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.28 (89)	1.6 (78)	34% (32)	32% (87)	.3 (64)	7% (46)	1.9 (32)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
RICE Defense	12	45% (24)	34% (4)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.16 (33)	1.7 (109)	34% (30)	24% (4)	.19 (23)	6% (70)	2.1 (81)
USF Offense	13	52% (51)	38% (106)	20.2	34.1	227.5	6.7	11.3	16 (87)	10 (63)	.13 (113)	1.5 (109)	34% (114)	25% (121)	.22 (105)	6% (68)	2.2 (21)

Rice's Power Ratings
Rice's Power Rating: -17.27 #126
Rice's Offense Rating: 2.31 #128
Rice's Defense Rating: 19.58 #105
2025 Talent Rating: 554.00 #107
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Rice's 2025 Expected Record: 5.1 - 7.9
Rice's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.8 #120
Rice's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #119
Rice's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #112

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Rice: -17.27 South Florida: 13.91

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Rice: -14.8 South Florida: 11.6

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 13.91 #40
South Florida's Offense Rating: 22.51 #18
South Florida's Defense Rating: 11.29 #54
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00 #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
South Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 9.9 - 3.1
South Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.6 #29
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #12
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #62

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Rice Scoring
Offense: 19.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 14.2
Defense: 32.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.6

Rice's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
South Florida 44
Rice 14

Projected Total Points: 57

South Florida Scoring
Offense: 40.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 51
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.3

South Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	South Florida	52	Rice	3	South Florida -28.5	South Florida	57.5	Under
2024	11/30	Rice	35	South Florida	28	South Florida -5.5	Rice	53.5	Over
2023	09/23	South Florida	42	Rice	29	Rice -2.5	South Florida	56.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
South Florida	2	2	2 Overs
Rice	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 0	3 - 0	1 - 0	2 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 3	0 - 3	0 - 2	0 - 1

(#126) RICE at (#40) USF

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	RICE	USF
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#126	#40
SP+SP+	#120	#29
Perf GradeGrade	#123	#38
OffenseOff	#107	#27
DefenseDef	#124	#61
Spec TeamsST	#96	#85
TalentTal	#107	#30
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#79

Rice Notes(10/25) Huge W over UConn, 300 yds rushing, 4 TDs
(10/24) Down to QB4? Won't know QB1 till UConn game
(9/18) Option team w/ a good punter. Love 'em
(9/18) Team is really undersized, but play hard
(9/18) QB Jenkins can scoot, but passing not strong
(8/30) 200+ yds rushing in huge W over Louisiana
(8/25) QB1 Chase Jenkins starter, was WR LY at times
(6/6) RB Balthazar (CCU) hurt LY, but will be a factor
(6/6) Pass rush huge ? Have LBs, DB looks decent.
(6/6) QB - Warner left (Fresno). Who can run option?
(6/6) Def was bad, have some exp. 4 portal adds
(6/6) Really hard job, minimal portal. Option great idea
Rice Injury Report

South Florida Notes(12/16) Hiring Tim Beck as OC for reasons unknown.
(12/3) Hiring OSU OC Brian Hartline, Golesh left for Auburn
(10/10) Mauled N Texas, over 600 yds offense, 300 rushing
(10/4) Still running QB Brown 17 times in Char blowout?
(8/29) QB Brown great vs Boise, tough runner. Big W
(8/28) LB good, exp'd. Starters have over 40 starts
(7/12) Golesh go-go offense could fun after Sept
(6/2) RBs Franklin (OU) & Norton (Char) added
(5/11) OL top 10 exp, 78% returning, 22% via portal
(3/23) QB Brown vs Archie, both inconsistent LY
(3/23) WR lost #1, Nimrod (Tenn)/Singleton good
(3/23) OL returns 4/5. 3 more with exp, 2 portals
South Florida Injury Report

Rice on Offense

Option Offense 71%, Pass: 28%
CategoryCat	RICE Off	USF Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#107	#61
SuccessSuc	#127	#36
ExplosiveExp	#36	#115
PPAPPA	#126	#66
PowerPwr	#128	#54
SP+SP+	#119	#62
Pts POPPO	#119	#88
HavocHav	#123	#15

Rice Run Game

Option Offense 71%, Pass: 28%
CategoryCat	RICE Off	USF Def
Run GameRun	#129	#77
Run SuccessRSuc	#127	#17
Run ExplRExp	#55	#121
PPAExp	#126	#26
Run BlockR Blk	#90	-
OL YdsOLY	#118	#18
Stuff RateStuff	#81	#10
TackleTak	-	#132

Rice Pass Game

Option Offense 71%, Pass: 28%
CategoryCat	RICE Off	USF Def
Pass GamePass	#77	#71
Pass SuccessPSuc	#121	#69
Pass ExplPExl	#97	#78
PPAExp	#121	#89
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#112	#8
F7 HavocF7	#63	#11
DB HavocDB	#133	#46

South Florida on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	USF Off	RICE Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#27	#124
SuccessSuc	#118	#11
ExplosiveExp	#10	#99
PPAPPA	#83	#60
PowerPwr	#18	#105
SP+SP+	#12	#112
Pts POPPO	#74	#62
HavocHav	#57	#55

South Florida Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	USF Off	RICE Def
Run GameRun	#19	#101
Run SuccessRSuc	#112	#37
Run ExplRExp	#3	#103
PPAExp	#32	#85
Run BlockR Blk	#76	-
OL YdsOLY	#60	#80
Stuff RateStuff	#45	#110
TackleTak	-	#115

South Florida Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	USF Off	RICE Def
Pass GamePass	#8	#130
Pass SuccessPSuc	#106	#4
Pass ExplPExl	#109	#109
PPAExp	#113	#33
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#18	#76
F7 HavocF7	#62	#45
DB HavocDB	#68	#70

Program Comparison
USF 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

RICE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Raymond James Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 14
South Florida -28.5 (57.5)
South Florida won vs Rice this year (52-3)

Previous Matchups
South Florida beat Rice last year (52-3)
Rice beat South Florida in 2024 (35-28)
South Florida beat Rice in 2023 (42-29)

RICE's OC Vince Munch (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Chase Jenkins	119	172	69%	1025	9	2	6.0
Drew Devillier	10	21	48%	123	1	0	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quinton Jackson	180	889	6	4.9	73
Chase Jenkins	151	531	5	3.5	34
Daelen Alexander	74	392	3	5.3	57
DAndre Hardeman Jr.	76	302	2	4.0	36

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Aaron Turner	63	398	4	6.3	55
Drayden Dickmann	37	323	3	8.7	46
Tyson Thompson	8	105	2	13.1	37
Payton Matthews	4	93	0	23.3	54

View Rice's Full Roster

RICE's DC Jon Kay (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Andrew Awe	93	9	4	3	2
Ty Anthony Morris	79	9	3	3	3
Tony Anyanwu	63	8	7	3	1
Marcus Williams	61	4	0	1	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tony Anyanwu	63	8	7	3	1
Michael Daley	15	5	5	2	2
Andrew Awe	93	9	4	3	2
Ty Anthony Morris	79	9	3	3	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Omari Porter	31	1	1	8
Khary Crump	14	0	0	6
Marcus Williams	61	4	1	5

USF's OC Joel Gordon (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Byrum Brown	226	341	66%	3158	28	7	9.3
Gaston Moore (Tr)	34	48	71%	290	2	2	6.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Byrum Brown	175	1008	14	5.8	60
Nykahi Davenport	98	612	7	6.2	60
Sam Franklin (Tr)	80	474	4	5.9	73
Alvon Isaac	73	350	0	4.8	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keshaun Singleton	50	877	8	17.5	66
Jeremiah Koger	38	597	8	15.7	63
Mudia Reuben (Tr)	36	495	5	13.8	60
Chas Nimrod (Tr)	23	466	3	20.3	55

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Todd Orlando (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jhalyn Shuler	105	9	3	6	8
Mac Harris	103	8	6	7	2
Tavin Ward	60	2	0	0	2
De'Shawn Rucker	58	2	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Harris	103	8	6	7	2
Jarvis Lee Jr.	55	12	4	4	2
Ricardo Watson	49	7	3	5	1
Jhalyn Shuler	105	9	3	6	8

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jhalyn Shuler	105	9	3	6	8
De'Shawn Rucker	58	2	0	0	4
Jonas Duclona (Tr)	35	3	1	0	4