UTSA at South Florida - 2025 Matchup Preview
UTSA logo UTSA Roadrunners at South Florida BullsSouth Florida logo
Thursday, November 6th 2025 (7:30 PM EST)
South Florida -14 (66.5) (-600)  Open: -12.5
South Florida 55 - UTSA: 23  (American Athletic)

 
Roadrunners (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jeff Traylor (45 - 20)
Avg Score : 36 - 29 (22 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 6.3 (#71)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
USF coming off BYE
Our Line: South Florida -19.5  (SP+ USF -13)

Projected Score: UTSA: 23 - USF: 43 (66)
USF Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
UTSA Travel: 973 miles, 1 hrs behind
Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (13 - 12)
Avg Score : 41 - 23 (51 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.9 - 3.1 (#22)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
UTSA's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 UTSA at Texas A&M+21.556.5L 24 - 42OY
Sat 9/6 UTSA vs Texas State-4.564.5L 36 - 43ON
Sat 9/13 UTSA vs Incarnate Word-21.062.5W 48 - 20OY
Sat 9/20 UTSA at Colorado State-4.558.5W 17 - 16UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 UTSA at Temple-6.558.5L 21 - 27UN
Sat 10/11 UTSA vs Rice-8.548.5W 61 - 13OY
Sat 10/18 UTSA at North Texas+4.064.5L 17 - 55ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/30 UTSA vs Tulane+5.554.5W 48 - 26OY
Thu 11/6 UTSA at South Florida+14.066.5L 23 - 55ON
Sat 11/15 UTSA at Charlotte-16.557.5W 28 - 7UY
Sat 11/22 UTSA vs East Carolina+2.062.5W 58 - 24OY
Sat 11/29 UTSA vs Army-8.550.5L 24 - 27ON
Fri 12/26 UTSA vs Florida International-7.062.5W 57 - 20OY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for UTSA's Schedule
South Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 South Florida vs Boise State+8.563.5W 34 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 South Florida at Florida+18.558.0W 18 - 16UY
Sat 9/13 South Florida at Miami+17.556.5L 12 - 49ON
Sat 9/20 South Florida vs South Carolina State-36.056.5W 63 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/3 South Florida vs Charlotte-28.554.5W 54 - 26ON
Fri 10/10 South Florida at North Texas+2.568.5W 63 - 36OY
Sat 10/18 South Florida vs Florida Atlantic-20.572.5W 48 - 13UY
Sat 10/25 South Florida at Memphis-3.558.5L 31 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6 South Florida vs UTSA-14.066.5W 55 - 23OY
Sat 11/15 South Florida at Navy-8.562.5L 38 - 41ON
Sat 11/22 South Florida at UAB-21.568.5W 48 - 18UY
Sat 11/29 South Florida vs Rice-28.557.5W 52 - 3UY
Wed 12/17 South Florida vs Old Dominion-4.052.5L 10 - 24UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UTSA#33 (.23)45% (35)35.545% (49)2.81 (97)16047% (23)2254.23 (29)#82 (.18)40% (46)28.840% (44)40% (49)4.09 (108)58.50.91.2
USF#15 (.31)46% (27)40.547% (28)3.33 (14)21246% (28)2764.45 (21)#25 (.07)38% (24)23.438% (17)38% (40)3.15 (29)611.51.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UTSA#61 (.2)40% (100)37% (123)3.03 (70)16943% (61)2833.63 (94)#42 (.13)34% (2)32% (1)36% (16)3.78 (66)81.11.71.6
USF#83 (.17)38% (118)39% (112)3.06 (60)18138% (106)2273.88 (74)#66 (.16)39% (36)38% (17)40% (69)4 (88)70.91.42.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UTSA Offense1335.521.745.4%4.230.9203841602255.146%52%45%47%16%.23
USF Defense1323.414.337.8%3.151.9 - - - - - 48%51%38%38%16%.07
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UTSA Defense1328.833.739.6%4.091.2 - - - - - 50%49%40%40%19%.18
USF Offense1340.55146.4%4.451.5244882122765.551%48%47%46%14%.31

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UTSA1329:2819.840%42%6.558.50.91.25.31.6231.8
South Florida1325:2423.846%59%6.6611.51.96.52.5329.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UTSA Offense1346% (102)45% (49)31.1159.85.117 (49).19 (36)2.81 (97)73% (63)10% (102)1.17 (6)
USF Defense1348% (46)38% (17) - - - - .02 (23)2.63 (20)79% (120)11% (43)1.06 (113)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UTSA Defense1350% (66)40% (44) - - - - .12 (83)2.86 (62)64% (21)11% (24)0.97 (72)
USF Offense1351% (55)47% (28)38.8212.25.529 (30).18 (39)3.33 (14)81% (10)8% (25)0.98 (60)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UTSA Offense1352% (38)47% (23)21.532224.5710.431 (33)7 (34).33 (42)1.5 (95)30% (46)36% (20).45 (20)6% (59)2.2 (12)
USF Defense1351% (94)38% (40) - - - - - - 14 (6).17 (37)1.6 (68)37% (8)27% (38).23 (44)6% (81)2 (53)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UTSA Defense1349% (78)40% (49) - - - - - - 9 (75).29 (87)1.8 (131)35% (18)28% (49).3 (70)7% (20)2.2 (122)
USF Offense1348% (80)46% (28)20.831.2275.68.813.333 (8)11 (60).48 (8)1.7 (14)29% (24)30% (75).43 (23)6% (81)2.3 (5)

UTSA's Power Ratings
UTSA's Power Rating: -2.27  #78
UTSA's Offense Rating: 12.57  #49
UTSA's Defense Rating: 14.84  #110
2025 Talent Rating: 648.00  #85
Blue Chip Ratio: 7%  #46
UTSA's 2025 Expected Record: 6.7 - 6.3
UTSA's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.6  #65
UTSA's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2  #39
UTSA's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.0  #95

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
UTSA: -2.27   South Florida: 18.925

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UTSA: 1.6   South Florida: 14.6




South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 18.925  #23
South Florida's Offense Rating: 22.95  #12
South Florida's Defense Rating: 4.70  #44
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00  #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
South Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 9.9 - 3.1
South Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.6  #23
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.9  #10
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3  #58

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


UTSA Scoring
Offense: 35.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.7
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.7

UTSA's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 3
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
South Florida 43
UTSA 23


Total Points: 66

Based on Last 4 Games
South Florida 43
UTSA 26

Total Points: 68

Based on Entire Season
South Florida 39
UTSA 24

Total Points: 63
South Florida Scoring
Offense: 40.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 51
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.3

South Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/06South Florida55UTSA23South Florida -14South Florida66.5Over
202311/17UTSA49South Florida21UT San Antonio -14.5UTSA65.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
South Florida112 Overs
UTSA110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 02 - 02 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 20 - 00 - 2

(#78) UTSA at (#23) USF
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUTSAUSF
Power RatePwr #78 #23
SP+SP+ #65 #23
Perf GradeGrade #105 #29
OffenseOff #70 #15
DefenseDef #120 #61
Spec TeamsST #121 #75
TalentTal #85 #30
Blue ChipsBC% #46 #79
UTSA Notes
(11/29) Wild season ends w/ loss to Army. 6-6 feels meh
(11/22) Killed ECU to get bowl eligible. Odd year 4 Meeps
(10/31) McCown was 31/33 for 370, 4 TD in Tulane rout
(10/5) Def is poor & Off isn't enough, danger of bowl miss
(9/24) Off good, RB Henry great, Def is really bad
(9/24) QB McCown & Pass Def awful vs CSU, lucky W
(7/28) Offense should be lethal, up to Def portals/dev
(7/20) RB Emery Jr (5*, LSU) fun add if healthy
(7/6) WR good/deep, 4/6 back. TE Thomas a weapon
(7/6) Proj #1 WR Clark will not play in 2025, NFL
(7/4) Def bad LY, 12 portal adds, 3 DL & 6 DBs
(6/25) Sched opp no Mem/Navy, Tul/Army/ECU home
UTSA Injury Report
South Florida Notes
(12/16) Hiring Tim Beck as OC for reasons unknown.
(12/3) Hiring OSU OC Brian Hartline, Golesh left for Auburn
(10/10) Mauled N Texas, over 600 yds offense, 300 rushing
(10/4) Still running QB Brown 17 times in Char blowout?
(8/29) QB Brown great vs Boise, tough runner. Big W
(8/28) LB good, exp'd. Starters have over 40 starts
(7/12) Golesh go-go offense could fun after Sept
(6/2) RBs Franklin (OU) & Norton (Char) added
(5/11) OL top 10 exp, 78% returning, 22% via portal
(3/23) QB Brown vs Archie, both inconsistent LY
(3/23) WR lost #1, Nimrod (Tenn)/Singleton good
(3/23) OL returns 4/5. 3 more with exp, 2 portals
South Florida Injury Report
UTSA on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
UTSA OffUSF Def
Perf GradePerf #70 #61
SuccessSuc #35 #24
ExplosiveExp #24 #107
PPAPPA #33 #25
PowerPwr #49 #44
SP+SP+ #39 #58
Pts POPPO #29 #29
HavocHav #79 #58
UTSA Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
UTSA OffUSF Def
Run GameRun #51 #74
Run SuccessRSuc #49 #17
Run ExplRExp #6 #113
PPAExp #36 #23
Run BlockR Blk #102 -
OL YdsOLY #97 #20
Stuff RateStuff #107 #16
TackleTak -  #130
UTSA Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
UTSA OffUSF Def
Pass GamePass #54 #70
Pass SuccessPSuc #23 #40
Pass ExplPExl #95 #68
PPAExp #42 #37
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #112 #18
F7 HavocF7 #102 #43
DB HavocDB #59 #81
South Florida on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatUSF OffUTSA Def
Perf GradePerf #15 #120
SuccessSuc #27 #46
ExplosiveExp #28 #126
PPAPPA #15 #82
PowerPwr #12 #110
SP+SP+ #10 #95
Pts POPPO #21 #108
HavocHav #44 #18
South Florida Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
USF OffUTSA Def
Run GameRun #19 #114
Run SuccessRSuc #28 #44
Run ExplRExp #60 #72
PPAExp #39 #83
Run BlockR Blk #48 -
OL YdsOLY #14 #62
Stuff RateStuff #11 #77
TackleTak -  #117
South Florida Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatUSF OffUTSA Def
Pass GamePass #9 #116
Pass SuccessPSuc #28 #49
Pass ExplPExl #14 #131
PPAExp #8 #87
Pass Block/RushP Blk #15 #75
F7 HavocF7 #25 #24
DB HavocDB #81 #20
Program Comparison
USF 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

UTSA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Raymond James Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 73°
Rematch from Week 11
South Florida -14.0 (66.5)
South Florida won vs UTSA this year (55-23)

Previous Matchups
UTSA beat South Florida in 2023 (49-21)

  
UTSA's OC Justin Burke (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Owen McCown27640968%29903077.3
Brandon Tennison203459%199205.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Robert Henry151104596.976
Will Henderson III12586666.959
A'Marion Peterson (Tr)4917733.614
Bryson Donnell208414.228
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Mccuin65726811.252
AJ Wilson (Tr)30523417.477
David Amador4544349.845
Houston Thomas34347210.232

View UTSA's Full Roster

UTSA's DC Jess Loepp (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shadrach Banks938222
Jimmy Wyrick621008
Tyan Milton513013
Kendrick Blackshire441101
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nnanna Anyanwu217541
Kenny Ozowalu166331
Chidera Otutu283300
Jonathan Jones158324
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jimmy Wyrick621008
KK Meier (Tr)250005
Jakevian Rodgers232004

USF's OC Joel Gordon (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Byrum Brown22634166%31582879.3
Gaston Moore (Tr)344871%290226.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Byrum Brown1751008145.860
Nykahi Davenport9861276.260
Sam Franklin (Tr)8047445.973
Alvon Isaac7335004.849
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keshaun Singleton50877817.566
Jeremiah Koger38597815.763
Mudia Reuben (Tr)36495513.860
Chas Nimrod (Tr)23466320.355

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Todd Orlando (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhalyn Shuler1059368
Mac Harris1038672
Tavin Ward602002
De'Shawn Rucker582004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mac Harris1038672
Jarvis Lee Jr.5512442
Ricardo Watson497351
Jhalyn Shuler1059368
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhalyn Shuler1059368
De'Shawn Rucker582004
Jonas Duclona (Tr)353104