South Florida at Florida - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 6th 2025 (4:15 PM EDT)
Florida -18.5 (58.0) (-900) Open: -18.0 | 55.0
South Florida 18 - Florida: 16

Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (13 - 12)
Avg Score : 41 - 23 (35 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.9 - 3.1 (#22)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 6)

FLA 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: South Florida -1 (SP+ USF -8)
Projected Score: USF: 29 - FLA: 28 (57)
FLA Win prob: 91% | Cover: 44%
USF Travel: 116 miles

Gators (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (18 - 19)
Avg Score : 22 - 24 (29 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 7) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USF Players
FLA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Florida's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	South Florida vs Boise State	+8.5	63.5	W 34 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/6	South Florida at Florida	+18.5	58.0	W 18 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/13	South Florida at Miami	+17.5	56.5	L 12 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/20	South Florida vs South Carolina State	-36.0	56.5	W 63 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/3	South Florida vs Charlotte	-28.5	54.5	W 54 - 26	O	N
Fri 10/10	South Florida at North Texas	+2.5	68.5	W 63 - 36	O	Y
Sat 10/18	South Florida vs Florida Atlantic	-20.5	72.5	W 48 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/25	South Florida at Memphis	-3.5	58.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6	South Florida vs UTSA	-14.0	66.5	W 55 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/15	South Florida at Navy	-8.5	62.5	L 38 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/22	South Florida at UAB	-21.5	68.5	W 48 - 18	U	Y
Sat 11/29	South Florida vs Rice	-28.5	57.5	W 52 - 3	U	Y
Wed 12/17	South Florida vs Old Dominion	-4.0	52.5	L 10 - 24	U	N

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule

Florida's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Florida vs Long Island University	-46.5	56.5	W 55 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Florida vs South Florida	-18.5	58.0	L 16 - 18	U	N
Sat 9/13	Florida at LSU	+5.5	47.5	L 10 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/20	Florida at Miami	+8.5	51.5	L 7 - 26	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Florida vs Texas	+4.5	42.5	W 29 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Florida at Texas A&M	+7.0	47.5	L 17 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/18	Florida vs Mississippi State	-9.5	50.5	W 23 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Florida vs Georgia	+7.0	50.5	L 20 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Florida at Kentucky	-4.5	44.5	L 7 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/15	Florida at Ole Miss	+10.5	53.5	L 24 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Florida vs Tennessee	+3.5	57.5	L 11 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/29	Florida vs Florida State	+1.5	48.5	W 40 - 21	O	Y

Total: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF	#83 (.17)	38% (118)	40.5	39% (112)	3.06 (60)	181	38% (106)	227	3.88 (74)	#66 (.16)	39% (36)	23.4	38% (17)	40% (69)	4 (88)	70.9	1.4	2.1
FLA	#72 (.18)	43% (64)	21.6	45% (54)	3.04 (66)	164	41% (82)	226	4.17 (46)	#53 (.14)	44% (95)	24	49% (118)	39% (44)	3.12 (14)	54	1.4	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FLA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Offense	13	40.5	35	38.3%	3.88	1.4	20	408	181	227	4.8	48%	52%	39%	38%	15%	.17
FLA Defense	13	24	18.7	43.9%	3.12	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	49%	39%	18%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Defense	13	23.4	32.3	39.2%	4	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	38%	40%	20%	.16
FLA Offense	13	21.6	29	43%	4.17	1.4	19	389	164	226	4.6	54%	46%	45%	41%	16%	.18

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Florida	13	25:10	20.4	39%	56%	8.1	70.9	1.4	2.1	8.1	2.5	2	30.7
Florida	13	28:35	19.2	39%	47%	5.9	54	1.4	1.9	6.4	3.1	1	30.2

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Offense	13	48% (82)	39% (112)	37.8	180.8	4.8	34 (10)	.2 (32)	3.06 (60)	66% (114)	10% (62)	1.26 (3)
FLA Defense	13	51% (71)	49% (118)	-	-	-	-	.13 (73)	3.06 (78)	67% (29)	11% (37)	0.84 (10)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Defense	13	49% (46)	38% (17)	-	-	-	-	.04 (26)	2.63 (18)	70% (48)	13% (11)	1.13 (121)
FLA Offense	13	54% (42)	45% (54)	35.4	163.7	4.6	26 (36)	.14 (63)	3.04 (66)	79% (27)	9% (56)	0.94 (82)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Offense	13	52% (51)	38% (106)	20.2	34.1	227.5	6.7	11.3	16 (87)	10 (63)	.13 (113)	1.5 (109)	34% (114)	25% (121)	.22 (105)	6% (68)	2.2 (21)
FLA Defense	13	49% (67)	39% (44)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (23)	.16 (34)	1.6 (87)	31% (86)	37% (124)	.42 (108)	7% (43)	2 (58)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Defense	13	51% (91)	40% (69)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.28 (89)	1.6 (78)	34% (32)	32% (87)	.3 (64)	7% (46)	1.9 (32)
FLA Offense	13	46% (91)	41% (82)	16	26.1	225.7	8.7	14.1	18 (68)	14 (115)	.25 (73)	1.6 (48)	31% (54)	28% (105)	.22 (107)	7% (90)	1.8 (118)

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 11.22 #40
South Florida's Offense Rating: 22.51 #18
South Florida's Defense Rating: 11.29 #54
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00 #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #79
South Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 9.9 - 3.1
South Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.6 #29
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #12
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #62

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 11.22 Florida: 10.195

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 11.6 Florida: 3.5

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 10.195 #33
Florida's Offense Rating: 17.44 #41
Florida's Defense Rating: 5.55 #25
2025 Talent Rating: 976.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 52 #12
Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5 #63
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #89
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #43

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

South Florida Scoring
Offense: 40.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.3

South Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
South Florida 29
Florida 28

Projected Total Points: 57

Florida Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.7

Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/06	Florida	16	South Florida	18	Florida -18.5	South Florida	58.0	Under
2022	09/17	Florida	31	South Florida	28	Florida -23.5	South Florida	58.0	Over
2021	09/11	South Florida	20	Florida	42	Florida -29	South Florida	57.0	Over
2010	09/11	Florida	38	South Florida	14

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Florida	3	0	2 Overs
South Florida	1	3	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 2	1 - 2	0 - 2	1 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 2	2 - 1	0 - 1	2 - 0

(#40) USF at (#33) FLA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USF	FLA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#40	#33
SP+SP+	#29	#63
Perf GradeGrade	#38	#49
OffenseOff	#27	#51
DefenseDef	#61	#62
Spec TeamsST	#85	#86
TalentTal	#30	#15
Blue ChipsBC%	#79	#12

South Florida Notes(12/16) Hiring Tim Beck as OC for reasons unknown.
(12/3) Hiring OSU OC Brian Hartline, Golesh left for Auburn
(10/10) Mauled N Texas, over 600 yds offense, 300 rushing
(10/4) Still running QB Brown 17 times in Char blowout?
(8/29) QB Brown great vs Boise, tough runner. Big W
(8/28) LB good, exp'd. Starters have over 40 starts
(7/12) Golesh go-go offense could fun after Sept
(6/2) RBs Franklin (OU) & Norton (Char) added
(5/11) OL top 10 exp, 78% returning, 22% via portal
(3/23) QB Brown vs Archie, both inconsistent LY
(3/23) WR lost #1, Nimrod (Tenn)/Singleton good
(3/23) OL returns 4/5. 3 more with exp, 2 portals
South Florida Injury Report

Florida Notes(12/6) Jon Sumrall won 3 conf titles in 4 years at Tulane
(12/4) Hired Buster Faulkner (GT OC) as OC. Great Hire
(12/2) Hired Brad White at DC, was DC at UK '19-'25
(11/30) Hired Jon Sumrall (Tulane). Good hire for Gators
(11/16) Gators fought hard, Off no showed 2H vs Ole Miss
(11/9) Have the Gators quit? Killed by Kentucky, yikes
(11/6) Injury report long vs UK. Motivation ?'s now
(11/2) WR D Wilson is out for the season (foot)
(10/19) Napier fired, WR coach Billy Gonzales interim
(10/12) Napier now 0-14 vs ranked teams on the road
(10/6) OG'd Texas by 100 yds, held UT to 3-11 on 3rd down
(10/6) Who is UF? Great def vs UT, Fr WR D Wilson a threat
Florida Injury Report

South Florida on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	USF Off	FLA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#27	#62
SuccessSuc	#118	#95
ExplosiveExp	#10	#32
PPAPPA	#83	#53
PowerPwr	#18	#25
SP+SP+	#12	#43
Pts POPPO	#74	#14
HavocHav	#57	#36

South Florida Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	USF Off	FLA Def
Run GameRun	#19	#47
Run SuccessRSuc	#112	#118
Run ExplRExp	#3	#10
PPAExp	#32	#73
Run BlockR Blk	#76	-
OL YdsOLY	#60	#78
Stuff RateStuff	#45	#84
TackleTak	-	#11

South Florida Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	USF Off	FLA Def
Pass GamePass	#8	#80
Pass SuccessPSuc	#106	#44
Pass ExplPExl	#109	#87
PPAExp	#113	#34
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#18	#98
F7 HavocF7	#62	#37
DB HavocDB	#68	#43

Florida on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	FLA Off	USF Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#51	#61
SuccessSuc	#64	#36
ExplosiveExp	#93	#115
PPAPPA	#72	#66
PowerPwr	#41	#54
SP+SP+	#89	#62
Pts POPPO	#46	#88
HavocHav	#68	#15

Florida Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	FLA Off	USF Def
Run GameRun	#34	#77
Run SuccessRSuc	#54	#17
Run ExplRExp	#82	#121
PPAExp	#63	#26
Run BlockR Blk	#13	-
OL YdsOLY	#66	#18
Stuff RateStuff	#77	#10
TackleTak	-	#132

Florida Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	FLA Off	USF Def
Pass GamePass	#86	#71
Pass SuccessPSuc	#82	#69
Pass ExplPExl	#48	#78
PPAExp	#73	#89
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#36	#8
F7 HavocF7	#56	#11
DB HavocDB	#90	#46

Program Comparison
FLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

USF 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
Florida -18.5 (58.0)
South Florida won at Florida this year (18-16)

Previous Matchups
South Florida beat Florida last year (18-16)

USF's OC Joel Gordon (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Byrum Brown	226	341	66%	3158	28	7	9.3
Gaston Moore (Tr)	34	48	71%	290	2	2	6.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Byrum Brown	175	1008	14	5.8	60
Nykahi Davenport	98	612	7	6.2	60
Sam Franklin (Tr)	80	474	4	5.9	73
Alvon Isaac	73	350	0	4.8	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keshaun Singleton	50	877	8	17.5	66
Jeremiah Koger	38	597	8	15.7	63
Mudia Reuben (Tr)	36	495	5	13.8	60
Chas Nimrod (Tr)	23	466	3	20.3	55

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Todd Orlando (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jhalyn Shuler	105	9	3	6	8
Mac Harris	103	8	6	7	2
Tavin Ward	60	2	0	0	2
De'Shawn Rucker	58	2	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Harris	103	8	6	7	2
Jarvis Lee Jr.	55	12	4	4	2
Ricardo Watson	49	7	3	5	1
Jhalyn Shuler	105	9	3	6	8

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jhalyn Shuler	105	9	3	6	8
De'Shawn Rucker	58	2	0	0	4
Jonas Duclona (Tr)	35	3	1	0	4

FLA's OC Rob Sale (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
D.J. Lagway	213	337	63%	2264	16	14	6.7
Tramell Jones Jr.	21	35	60%	191	2	0	5.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jadan Baugh	220	1170	8	5.3	26
D.J. Lagway	71	136	1	1.9	38
KD Daniels	28	120	1	4.3	16
Ja'Kobi Jackson	27	98	0	3.6	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Vernell Brown III	40	524	0	13.1	60
J.Michael Sturdivant (Tr)	27	406	3	15.0	57
Hayden Hansen	30	254	2	8.5	28
Eugene Wilson	27	239	3	8.9	40

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Ron Roberts (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Graham	76	7	2	7	4
Bryce Thornton	56	3	1	5	6
Jordan Castell	54	0	0	2	0
Aaron Chiles	52	3	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayden Woods	27	5	4	3	1
Kamran James	44	5	3	3	2
Brendan Bett (Tr)	40	4	3	1	0
Myles Graham	76	7	2	7	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryce Thornton	56	3	1	5	6
Myles Graham	76	7	2	7	4
J'Vari Flowers	17	1	0	0	4