Charlotte at South Florida - 2025 Matchup Preview
Charlotte logo Charlotte 49ers at South Florida BullsSouth Florida logo
Friday, October 3rd 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL  (American Athletic)

 
49ers (1 - 2) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Tim Albin (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 30 (19 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2.3 - 9.7 (#133)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 3)
CHAR coming off BYE
USF coming off BYE
Our Line: South Florida -23   (SP+ USF -18)

Projected Score: CHAR: 12 - USF: 35 (46)
USF Win prob: 95% | Cover: 56%
CHAR Travel: 517 miles
Bulls (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (13 - 12)
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (34 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 3.4 (#31)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 5)
 
Charlotte's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Charlotte vs App State+8.553.5L 11 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Charlotte vs North Carolina+16.549.5L 3 - 20UN
Sat 9/13 Charlotte vs Monmouth-3.066.5W 42 - 35OY
Thu 9/18 Charlotte vs Rice+2.542.5
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/3 Charlotte at South Florida+23
Sat 10/11 Charlotte at Army+13
Sat 10/18 Charlotte vs Temple+13
Fri 10/24 Charlotte vs North Texas+19
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Charlotte at East Carolina+21
Sat 11/15 Charlotte vs UTSA+14.5
Sat 11/22 Charlotte at Georgia+46
Sat 11/29 Charlotte at Tulane+24

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 6, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 5, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Charlotte's Schedule
South Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 South Florida vs Boise State+8.563.5W 34 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 South Florida at Florida+18.558.0W 18 - 16UY
Sat 9/13 South Florida at Miami+17.556.5L 12 - 49ON
Sat 9/20 South Florida vs South Carolina State-27
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/3 South Florida vs Charlotte-23
Fri 10/10 South Florida at North Texas+3.5
Sat 10/18 South Florida vs Florida Atlantic-14.5
Sat 10/25 South Florida at Memphis+14
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6 South Florida vs UTSA-6
Sat 11/15 South Florida at Navy+0.5
Sat 11/22 South Florida at UAB-15.5
Sat 11/29 South Florida vs Rice-16.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CHAR#89 (.14)44% (65)18.741% (91)1.92 (132)9447% (42)2583.24 (108)#110 (.24)50% (127)29.752% (126)49% (119)4.32 (99)66.72.30.3
USF#86 (.15)33% (129)21.328% (134)2.62 (102)9537% (106)2704 (67)#76 (.15)43% (93)2447% (107)40% (69)3.79 (80)48.70.72
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CHAR#116 (.1)37% (122)39% (110)2.75 (113)11935% (120)2243.9 (70)#113 (.25)45% (107)48% (111)42% (83)3.87 (81)65.31.81
USF#83 (.17)38% (118)39% (112)3.06 (60)18138% (106)2273.88 (74)#66 (.16)39% (36)38% (17)40% (69)4 (88)70.91.42.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CHAR Offense318.718.743.9%3.242.322352942582.949%50%41%47%16%.14
USF Defense324743%3.792 - - - - - 46%53%47%40%13%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CHAR Defense329.729.750.2%4.320.3 - - - - - 40%60%52%49%10%.24
USF Offense321.33433.3%40.717365952703.443%57%28%37%16%.15

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Charlotte329:5021.745%60%7.766.72.30.351.7027.8
South Florida324:2816.737%40%648.70.724.71026.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CHAR Offense349% (78)41% (91)32.793.72.93 (95)-.06 (121)1.92 (132)77% (45)9% (73)0.77 (118)
USF Defense346% (44)47% (107) - - - - .08 (77)3.2 (111)80% (107)8% (94)0.75 (24)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CHAR Defense340% (13)52% (126) - - - - .11 (93)3.08 (102)73% (77)7% (106)0.71 (19)
USF Offense343% (111)28% (134)28953.43 (95)-.03 (114)2.62 (102)78% (41)9% (70)1.36 (15)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CHAR Offense350% (61)47% (42)21.3322588.112.14 (72)4 (121).36 (56)1.6 (40)32% (83)35% (49).33 (71)8% (118)1.7 (109)
USF Defense353% (86)40% (69) - - - - - - 3 (28).26 (82)1.5 (62)30% (96)35% (107).3 (78)5% (85)1.4 (11)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CHAR Defense360% (128)49% (119) - - - - - - 0.32 (105)1.4 (47)31% (89)33% (95).25 (65)3% (125)1.8 (48)
USF Offense357% (23)37% (106)21.3342707.912.73 (90)1 (23).29 (69)1.6 (54)41% (131)22% (120).31 (76)7% (113)2.6 (5)

Charlotte's Power Ratings
Charlotte's Power Rating: -16.29 #120
Charlotte's Offense Rating: 3.08 #113
Charlotte's Defense Rating: 19.37 #116
2025 Talent Rating: 588.00 #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Charlotte's 2025 Expected Record: 2.3 - 9.7
Charlotte's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.3 #124
Charlotte's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.0 #118
Charlotte's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.3 #123

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Charlotte: -16.29   South Florida: 6.245

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Charlotte: -17.3   South Florida: 0.4




South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 6.245 #64
South Florida's Offense Rating: 14.13 #60
South Florida's Defense Rating: 7.04 #68
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00 #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
South Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 3.4
South Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4 #69
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #53
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #91

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Charlotte Scoring
Offense: 18.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.7
Defense: 29.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.7

Charlotte's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
South Florida 35
Charlotte 12


Total Points: 46

South Florida Scoring
Offense: 21.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 34
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense at Home: 7

South Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/16Charlotte24South Florida59South FloridaCharlotte -1.5South Florida53.5Over
202311/25South Florida48Charlotte14South FloridaSouth Florida -7.5South Florida56.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
South Florida222 Overs
Charlotte000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 11 - 10 - 01 - 1

(#120) Charlotte Info
Power Rating: -16.29 #120
Offense Rating: 3.08 #113
Defense Rating: 19.37 #116
Overall SP+ Rating: -17.3 #124
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.0 #118
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.3 #123
Talent Rating: 588.00 #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Expected Record: 2.3 - 9.7

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.24 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Good Pass Success 47%
Poor OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 50%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.32 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 52%
Awful Pass Def Success 49%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Charlotte has lost 1 straight
Record on Road: 0 - 0 (0 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Charlotte Notes
(8/30) QB Harrell bad, Run game putrid vs App St
(8/30) Def torched for 580+ vs App St, Pass D worse?
(3/24) QB Connor Harrell (NC) or G Loftis (Duke)
(3/24) RB rebuild. Chaney (Lou) added, depth?
(3/24) WR complete rebuild. 5 portals.
(3/24) OL rebuild 1/5 back. Only 1 portal add?

Charlotte Highlights
Charlotte offense is good on 3rd downs
Charlotte defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#)

Charlotte Deficiencies
Charlotte has a really bad Offense
Charlotte has a bad TO Margin (#125)
Charlotte Fumbles a Lot (#113)
Charlotte Can Not Run the Ball (#124)
Charlotte Commits a Lot of Penalties (#109)
Charlotte throws a Lot of Interceptions (#121)
Charlotte Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#104)
Charlotte offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#108)
Charlotte has a bad defense (#127)
Charlotte Does Not Stuff Runs (#118)
Charlotte has a bad defensive line (#102)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUSFCHAR
OverallOver#104#92
OffenseOff#100#74
DefenseDef#103#104
Special TeamsST#109#63
PassingPass#70#37
RushingRush#85#94
Run BlockRBLK#114#87
Pass BlockPBLK#66#107
Route RunningWR Rt#93#28
TacklingTkl#114#49
Run DefenseR Def#110#100
Pass Rush DefPRush#96#92
Coverage DefCov#62#100

Previous Matchups
South Florida beat Charlotte last year (59-24)
South Florida beat Charlotte in 2023 (48-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Raymond James Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: CHAR | USF
Depth Chart: CHAR | USF
Rosters: CHAR | USF
(#64) South Florida Info
Power Rating: 6.245 #64
Offense Rating: 14.13 #60
Defense Rating: 7.04 #68
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4 #69
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #53
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #91
Talent Rating: 876.00 #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
Expected Record: 8.6 - 3.4

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 33%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 4 PPO
Awful Run Success 28%
Poor Pass Success 37%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 43%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.79 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

South Florida has lost 2 straight
South Florida has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

South Florida Notes
(8/28) LB good, exp'd. Starters have over 40 starts
(7/12) Golesh go-go offense could fun after Sept
(6/2) RBs Franklin (OU) & Norton (Char) added
(5/11) OL top 10 exp, 78% returning, 22% via portal
(3/23) QB Brown vs Archie, both inconsistent LY
(3/23) WR lost #1, Nimrod (Tenn)/Singleton good
(3/23) OL returns 4/5. 3 more with exp, 2 portals
(3/23) Def bad LY, return a lot. 3 DL portals added
(3/23) OL improve? QB settle? Could be really good
(3/23) HC Golesh former OC. Big year for staff

South Florida Highlights
South Florida is Undefeated at Home
South Florida is Undefeated vs Spread at Home
South Florida is Undefeated vs Spread as Home Underdogs

South Florida offense is explosive (#14)
South Florida does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#21)

South Florida has a great TO Margin (#28)
South Florida defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

South Florida Deficiencies
South Florida Can Not Run the Ball (#123)
South Florida offense is really bad (#129)
South Florida run game is really bad (#134)
South Florida pass game is really bad (#106)
South Florida does not Sack the QB (#112)
South Florida has a bad defensive line (#111)


  
Charlotte's OC Todd Fitch
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Conner Harrell (Tr)568368%664428.0
Grayson Loftis (Tr)81362%110028.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
C.J. Stokes329603.016
Rod Gainey Jr.239414.111
Conner Harrell (Tr)254521.817
Cameren Smith (Tr)142902.19
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
E. Jai Mason16284317.862
Javen Nicholas (Tr)17177010.428
Miles Burris672012.017
Justin Olson256028.047

View Charlotte's Full Roster
Charlotte's DC Nate Faanes
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ja'Qurious Conley200000
Shay Taylor (Tr)192110
Jamarrion Solomon (Tr)142010
Collin Gill (Tr)131000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Reid Williford113200
Curtis Simpson (Tr)102220
Macyo Williams (Tr)41100
Shay Taylor (Tr)192110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dwight Bootle II (Tr)70001
Braden Mullen (Tr)10001
Gavin Willis (Tr)50001

South Florida's OC Joel Gordon
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Byrum Brown599662%747217.8
Gaston Moore (Tr)4580%18003.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Byrum Brown4411122.523
Alvon Isaac1410807.749
Cartevious Norton (Tr)154913.38
Sam Franklin (Tr)81902.45
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chas Nimrod (Tr)10248024.855
Keshaun Singleton9207223.066
Wyatt Sullivan (Tr)87509.430
Alvon Isaac774010.629

View South Florida's Full Roster
South Florida's DC Todd Orlando
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhalyn Shuler292002
Mac Harris262220
De'Shawn Rucker211001
Tavin Ward160001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mac Harris262220
Ricardo Watson152110
Jhalyn Shuler292002
Boogsie Silvera (Tr)50000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhalyn Shuler292002
De'Shawn Rucker211001
Tavin Ward160001