Charlotte at South Florida - 2025 Matchup Preview
Charlotte logo

Charlotte 49ers at South Florida Bulls

South Florida logo
Friday, October 3rd 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
South Florida -28.5 (54.5) (-5000)  Open: -28.5
South Florida 54 - Charlotte: 26  (American Athletic)

 
49ers (1 - 11) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tim Albin (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 14 - 36 (12 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#133)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 5)
CHAR coming off BYE
USF coming off BYE
Our Line: South Florida -40  (SP+ USF -38)

Projected Score: CHAR: 8 - USF: 48 (56)
USF Win prob: 97% | Cover: 52%
CHAR Travel: 517 miles
Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (13 - 12)
Avg Score : 41 - 23 (51 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.9 - 3.1 (#22)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 5)
 
Charlotte's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Charlotte vs App State+8.553.5L 11 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Charlotte vs North Carolina+16.549.5L 3 - 20UN
Sat 9/13 Charlotte vs Monmouth-3.066.5W 42 - 35OY
Thu 9/18 Charlotte vs Rice+1.541.5L 17 - 28ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/3 Charlotte at South Florida+28.554.5L 26 - 54OY
Sat 10/11 Charlotte at Army+17.545.5L 7 - 24UY
Sat 10/18 Charlotte vs Temple+10.047.5L 14 - 49ON
Fri 10/24 Charlotte vs North Texas+25.560.5L 20 - 54ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Charlotte at East Carolina+29.556.5L 22 - 48OY
Sat 11/15 Charlotte vs UTSA+16.557.5L 7 - 28UN
Sat 11/22 Charlotte at Georgia+42.553.5L 3 - 35UY
Sat 11/29 Charlotte at Tulane+31.552.5L 0 - 27UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for Charlotte's Schedule
South Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 South Florida vs Boise State+8.563.5W 34 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 South Florida at Florida+18.558.0W 18 - 16UY
Sat 9/13 South Florida at Miami+17.556.5L 12 - 49ON
Sat 9/20 South Florida vs South Carolina State-36.056.5W 63 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/3 South Florida vs Charlotte-28.554.5W 54 - 26ON
Fri 10/10 South Florida at North Texas+2.568.5W 63 - 36OY
Sat 10/18 South Florida vs Florida Atlantic-20.572.5W 48 - 13UY
Sat 10/25 South Florida at Memphis-3.558.5L 31 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6 South Florida vs UTSA-14.066.5W 55 - 23OY
Sat 11/15 South Florida at Navy-8.562.5L 38 - 41ON
Sat 11/22 South Florida at UAB-21.568.5W 48 - 18UY
Sat 11/29 South Florida vs Rice-28.557.5W 52 - 3UY
Wed 12/17 South Florida vs Old Dominion-4.052.5L 10 - 24UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CHAR#116 (.1)37% (122)14.339% (110)2.75 (113)11935% (120)2243.9 (70)#113 (.25)45% (107)36.348% (111)42% (83)3.87 (81)65.31.81
USF#83 (.17)38% (118)40.539% (112)3.06 (60)18138% (106)2273.88 (74)#66 (.16)39% (36)23.438% (17)40% (69)4 (88)70.91.42.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CHAR0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
USF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CHAR Offense1214.311.637.1%3.91.8173431192243.747%52%39%35%17%.1
USF Defense1323.414.339.2%42.1 - - - - - 49%51%38%40%20%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CHAR Defense1236.337.645.3%3.871 - - - - - 56%44%48%42%15%.25
USF Offense1340.55138.3%3.881.4204081812274.848%52%39%38%15%.17

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Charlotte1228:3717.330%42%7.865.31.814.91.2126.1
South Florida1325:1020.439%56%8.170.91.42.18.12.5230.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CHAR Offense1247% (88)39% (110)32.3118.73.716 (90).09 (93)2.75 (113)68% (105)11% (106)1.1 (24)
USF Defense1349% (46)38% (17) - - - - .04 (26)2.63 (18)70% (48)13% (11)1.13 (121)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CHAR Defense1256% (118)48% (111) - - - - .19 (104)3.27 (106)68% (35)8% (114)0.96 (57)
USF Offense1348% (82)39% (112)37.8180.84.834 (10).2 (32)3.06 (60)66% (114)10% (62)1.26 (3)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CHAR Offense1252% (46)35% (120)14.829.4224.17.615.216 (87)14 (115).12 (120)1.9 (6)35% (123)29% (96).23 (103)6% (57)2.3 (3)
USF Defense1351% (91)40% (69) - - - - - - 13 (31).28 (89)1.6 (78)34% (32)32% (87).3 (64)7% (46)1.9 (32)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CHAR Defense1244% (18)42% (83) - - - - - - 10 (66).34 (112)1.8 (122)31% (92)33% (107).57 (132)6% (51)2.4 (133)
USF Offense1352% (51)38% (106)20.234.1227.56.711.316 (87)10 (63).13 (113)1.5 (109)34% (114)25% (121).22 (105)6% (68)2.2 (21)

Charlotte's Power Ratings
Charlotte's Power Rating: -25.40  #135
Charlotte's Offense Rating: -0.08  #134
Charlotte's Defense Rating: 25.32  #132
2025 Talent Rating: 588.00  #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Charlotte's 2025 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Charlotte's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -26.7  #134
Charlotte's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.5  #132
Charlotte's Defense SP+ Rating: 39.8  #132

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Charlotte: -25.40   South Florida: 13.91

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Charlotte: -26.7   South Florida: 11.6




South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 13.91  #40
South Florida's Offense Rating: 22.51  #18
South Florida's Defense Rating: 11.29  #54
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00  #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
South Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 9.9 - 3.1
South Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.6  #29
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7  #12
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3  #62

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Charlotte Scoring
Offense: 14.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.6
Defense: 36.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.6

Charlotte's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
South Florida 48
Charlotte 8


Projected Total Points: 56
South Florida Scoring
Offense: 40.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 51
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.3

South Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/03South Florida54Charlotte26South Florida -28.5Charlotte54.5Over
202411/16Charlotte24South Florida59Charlotte -1.5South Florida53.5Over
202311/25South Florida48Charlotte14South Florida -7.5South Florida56.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
South Florida323 Overs
Charlotte010 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 11 - 21 - 20 - 0
Road Teams1 - 22 - 10 - 02 - 1

(#135) CHAR at (#40) USF
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatCHARUSF
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #135 #40
SP+SP+ #134 #29
Perf GradeGrade #129 #38
OffenseOff #113 #27
DefenseDef #132 #61
Spec TeamsST #129 #85
TalentTal #97 #30
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #79
Charlotte Notes
(10/19) Team is awful, Off is bad but Def is worse.
(10/4) QB1 is now Zach Wilcke, played OK in USF blowout
(10/4) Off is still really bad, can't run. 3 QBs thru wk 6
(10/2) QB1 Connor Harrell out for season (knee), Loftis QB1
(9/18) WR E. Jai Mason a baller to watch. QB meh
(9/18) Run Off awful, Run Def bad. Not much hope
(9/18) Tim Albin very good coach but roster is bad
(8/30) QB Harrell bad, Run game putrid vs App St
(8/30) Def torched for 580+ vs App St, Pass D worse?
(3/24) QB Connor Harrell (NC) or G Loftis (Duke)
(3/24) RB rebuild. Chaney (Lou) added, depth?
(3/24) WR complete rebuild. 5 portals.
Charlotte Injury Report
South Florida Notes
(12/16) Hiring Tim Beck as OC for reasons unknown.
(12/3) Hiring OSU OC Brian Hartline, Golesh left for Auburn
(10/10) Mauled N Texas, over 600 yds offense, 300 rushing
(10/4) Still running QB Brown 17 times in Char blowout?
(8/29) QB Brown great vs Boise, tough runner. Big W
(8/28) LB good, exp'd. Starters have over 40 starts
(7/12) Golesh go-go offense could fun after Sept
(6/2) RBs Franklin (OU) & Norton (Char) added
(5/11) OL top 10 exp, 78% returning, 22% via portal
(3/23) QB Brown vs Archie, both inconsistent LY
(3/23) WR lost #1, Nimrod (Tenn)/Singleton good
(3/23) OL returns 4/5. 3 more with exp, 2 portals
South Florida Injury Report
Charlotte on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat
CHAR OffUSF Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #113 #61
SuccessSuc #122 #36
ExplosiveExp #2 #115
PPAPPA #116 #66
PowerPwr #134 #54
SP+SP+ #132 #62
Pts POPPO #70 #88
HavocHav #92 #15
Charlotte Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat
CHAR OffUSF Def
Run GameRun #136 #77
Run SuccessRSuc #110 #17
Run ExplRExp #24 #121
PPAExp #93 #26
Run BlockR Blk #104 -
OL YdsOLY #113 #18
Stuff RateStuff #109 #10
TackleTak -  #132
Charlotte Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat
CHAR OffUSF Def
Pass GamePass #77 #71
Pass SuccessPSuc #120 #69
Pass ExplPExl #6 #78
PPAExp #120 #89
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #126 #8
F7 HavocF7 #106 #11
DB HavocDB #57 #46
South Florida on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatUSF OffCHAR Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #27 #132
SuccessSuc #118 #107
ExplosiveExp #10 #85
PPAPPA #83 #113
PowerPwr #18 #132
SP+SP+ #12 #132
Pts POPPO #74 #81
HavocHav #57 #87
South Florida Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
USF OffCHAR Def
Run GameRun #19 #130
Run SuccessRSuc #112 #111
Run ExplRExp #3 #57
PPAExp #32 #104
Run BlockR Blk #76 -
OL YdsOLY #60 #106
Stuff RateStuff #45 #100
TackleTak -  #129
South Florida Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatUSF OffCHAR Def
Pass GamePass #8 #122
Pass SuccessPSuc #106 #83
Pass ExplPExl #109 #122
PPAExp #113 #112
Pass Block/RushP Blk #18 #121
F7 HavocF7 #62 #114
DB HavocDB #68 #51
Program Comparison
USF 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

CHAR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Raymond James Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 6
South Florida -28.5 (54.5)
South Florida won vs Charlotte this year (54-26)

Previous Matchups
South Florida beat Charlotte last year (54-26)
South Florida beat Charlotte in 2024 (59-24)
South Florida beat Charlotte in 2023 (48-14)

  
CHAR's OC Todd Fitch (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Grayson Loftis (Tr)12823255%1415886.1
Conner Harrell (Tr)649667%737427.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rod Gainey Jr.7426013.537
Cameren Smith (Tr)6222003.513
Jariel Cobb (Tr)5119003.721
C.J. Stokes4814913.121
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Javen Nicholas (Tr)60740512.364
Sean Brown36508114.146
E. Jai Mason31423413.662
Miles Burris1413409.618

View Charlotte's Full Roster

CHAR's DC Nate Faanes (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Reid Williford746420
Kadin Schmitz (Tr)651032
Ja'Qurious Conley640002
Shay Taylor (Tr)626260
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Reid Williford746420
Curtis Simpson (Tr)315341
Shay Taylor (Tr)626260
Yamil Talib284251
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Thailand Baldwin (Tr)200004
Ja'Qurious Conley640002
Derrick Edwards191002

USF's OC Joel Gordon (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Byrum Brown22634166%31582879.3
Gaston Moore (Tr)344871%290226.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Byrum Brown1751008145.860
Nykahi Davenport9861276.260
Sam Franklin (Tr)8047445.973
Alvon Isaac7335004.849
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keshaun Singleton50877817.566
Jeremiah Koger38597815.763
Mudia Reuben (Tr)36495513.860
Chas Nimrod (Tr)23466320.355

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Todd Orlando (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhalyn Shuler1059368
Mac Harris1038672
Tavin Ward602002
De'Shawn Rucker582004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mac Harris1038672
Jarvis Lee Jr.5512442
Ricardo Watson497351
Jhalyn Shuler1059368
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhalyn Shuler1059368
De'Shawn Rucker582004
Jonas Duclona (Tr)353104