South Florida at UAB - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (3:00 PM EST)
South Florida -21.5 (68.5) (-1800) Open: -21.5
South Florida 48 - UAB: 18 (American Athletic)

Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (13 - 12)
Avg Score : 41 - 23 (35 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.9 - 3.1 (#22)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)

Wind: 13.7 MPH
USF 2nd straight Road Game
UAB 2nd straight Home Game
UAB is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: South Florida -25.5 (SP+ USF -27.5)
Projected Score: USF: 46 - UAB: 21 (67)
USF Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
USF Travel: 460 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Blazers (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Trent Dilfer (7 - 17)
Avg Score : 26 - 38 (28 - 38 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
USF Players
UAB Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Florida's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	South Florida vs Boise State	+8.5	63.5	W 34 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/6	South Florida at Florida	+18.5	58.0	W 18 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/13	South Florida at Miami	+17.5	56.5	L 12 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/20	South Florida vs South Carolina State	-36.0	56.5	W 63 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/3	South Florida vs Charlotte	-28.5	54.5	W 54 - 26	O	N
Fri 10/10	South Florida at North Texas	+2.5	68.5	W 63 - 36	O	Y
Sat 10/18	South Florida vs Florida Atlantic	-20.5	72.5	W 48 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/25	South Florida at Memphis	-3.5	58.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6	South Florida vs UTSA	-14.0	66.5	W 55 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/15	South Florida at Navy	-8.5	62.5	L 38 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/22	South Florida at UAB	-21.5	68.5	W 48 - 18	U	Y
Sat 11/29	South Florida vs Rice	-28.5	57.5	W 52 - 3	U	Y
Wed 12/17	South Florida vs Old Dominion	-4.0	52.5	L 10 - 24	U	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule

UAB's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	UAB vs Alabama State	-21.0	53.5	W 52 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/6	UAB at Navy	+20.5	59.0	L 24 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/13	UAB vs Akron	-12.5	58.5	W 31 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/20	UAB at Tennessee	+39.5	69.5	L 24 - 56	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	UAB vs Army	+6.5	55.5	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/11	UAB at Florida Atlantic	+4.5	66.5	L 33 - 53	O	N
Sat 10/18	UAB vs Memphis	+23.5	59.5	W 31 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	UAB at UConn	+10.0	61.5	L 19 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/8	UAB at Rice	-1.5	51.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/15	UAB vs North Texas	+17.5	69.5	L 24 - 53	O	N
Sat 11/22	UAB vs South Florida	+21.5	68.5	L 18 - 48	U	N
Sat 11/29	UAB at Tulsa	+9.0	56.5	W 31 - 24	U	Y

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 2

Predictions for UAB's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF	#83 (.17)	38% (118)	40.5	39% (112)	3.06 (60)	181	38% (106)	227	3.88 (74)	#66 (.16)	39% (36)	23.4	38% (17)	40% (69)	4 (88)	70.9	1.4	2.1
UAB	#85 (.16)	45% (42)	26.4	47% (32)	3.19 (42)	131	44% (48)	262	3.43 (109)	#101 (.23)	45% (104)	38.3	52% (132)	35% (12)	4.24 (110)	73.8	2.2	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UAB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Offense	13	40.5	35	38.3%	3.88	1.4	20	408	181	227	4.8	48%	52%	39%	38%	15%	.17
UAB Defense	12	38.3	37.7	44.9%	4.24	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	58%	42%	52%	35%	13%	.23

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Defense	13	23.4	32.3	39.2%	4	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	38%	40%	20%	.16
UAB Offense	12	26.4	28.2	44.7%	3.43	2.2	22	393	131	262	4	45%	55%	47%	44%	18%	.16

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Florida	13	25:10	20.4	39%	56%	8.1	70.9	1.4	2.1	8.1	2.5	2	30.7
UAB	12	29:26	21.6	38%	46%	8.2	73.8	2.2	1.1	4	1.5	3	27.1

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Offense	13	48% (82)	39% (112)	37.8	180.8	4.8	34 (10)	.2 (32)	3.06 (60)	66% (114)	10% (62)	1.26 (3)
UAB Defense	12	58% (131)	52% (132)	-	-	-	-	.26 (127)	3.64 (134)	88% (132)	7% (132)	0.87 (17)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Defense	13	49% (46)	38% (17)	-	-	-	-	.04 (26)	2.63 (18)	70% (48)	13% (11)	1.13 (121)
UAB Offense	12	45% (108)	47% (32)	32.6	131	4	9 (125)	.1 (85)	3.19 (42)	80% (21)	12% (111)	0.73 (132)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Offense	13	52% (51)	38% (106)	20.2	34.1	227.5	6.7	11.3	16 (87)	10 (63)	.13 (113)	1.5 (109)	34% (114)	25% (121)	.22 (105)	6% (68)	2.2 (21)
UAB Defense	12	42% (4)	35% (12)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.18 (43)	1.8 (121)	29% (113)	32% (92)	.32 (74)	6% (62)	1.8 (10)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Defense	13	51% (91)	40% (69)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.28 (89)	1.6 (78)	34% (32)	32% (87)	.3 (64)	7% (46)	1.9 (32)
UAB Offense	12	55% (28)	44% (48)	23.7	37.1	261.6	7.1	11.1	24 (38)	16 (124)	.25 (71)	1.5 (94)	31% (59)	31% (73)	.4 (40)	6% (79)	2.1 (37)

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 11.22 #40
South Florida's Offense Rating: 22.51 #18
South Florida's Defense Rating: 11.29 #53
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00 #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #79
South Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 9.9 - 3.1
South Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.6 #29
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #12
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #62

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 11.22 UAB: -13.87

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 11.6 UAB: -15.8

UAB's Power Ratings
UAB's Power Rating: -13.87 #124
UAB's Offense Rating: 8.41 #96
UAB's Defense Rating: 25.35 #132
2025 Talent Rating: 530.00 #111
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
UAB's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
UAB's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.8 #125
UAB's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #80
UAB's Defense SP+ Rating: 39.8 #132

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

South Florida Scoring
Offense: 40.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.3

South Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
South Florida 46
UAB 21

Projected Total Points: 67

UAB Scoring
Offense: 26.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.2
Defense: 38.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 37.7

UAB's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	UAB	18	South Florida	48	South Florida -21.5	South Florida	68.5	Under
2024	10/19	South Florida	35	UAB	25	South Florida -14	UAB	55.5	Over
2023	10/07	UAB	56	South Florida	35	South Florida -3.5	UAB	68.5	Over
2004	11/03	UAB	20	South Florida	45
2003	11/22	South Florida	19	UAB	22

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UAB	2	2	2 Overs
South Florida	3	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 3	1 - 2	0 - 1	1 - 1
Road Teams	3 - 2	2 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0

(#40) USF at (#124) UAB

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USF	UAB
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#40	#124
SP+SP+	#29	#125
Perf GradeGrade	#38	#121
OffenseOff	#27	#56
DefenseDef	#61	#136
Spec TeamsST	#85	#134
TalentTal	#30	#111
Blue ChipsBC%	#79	#79

South Florida Notes(12/16) Hiring Tim Beck as OC for reasons unknown.
(12/3) Hiring OSU OC Brian Hartline, Golesh left for Auburn
(10/10) Mauled N Texas, over 600 yds offense, 300 rushing
(10/4) Still running QB Brown 17 times in Char blowout?
(8/29) QB Brown great vs Boise, tough runner. Big W
(8/28) LB good, exp'd. Starters have over 40 starts
(7/12) Golesh go-go offense could fun after Sept
(6/2) RBs Franklin (OU) & Norton (Char) added
(5/11) OL top 10 exp, 78% returning, 22% via portal
(3/23) QB Brown vs Archie, both inconsistent LY
(3/23) WR lost #1, Nimrod (Tenn)/Singleton good
(3/23) OL returns 4/5. 3 more with exp, 2 portals
South Florida Injury Report

UAB Notes(12/10) Worst program in AAC. Will be ‘26 doormat
(12/4) Interim HC Alex Mortensen has been hired full time
(10/19) Off good, Def great in Memphis W after Dilfer fired
(10/12) HC Dilfer finally fired after 2-4, 3 straight L's
(10/12) Interim HC is OC Alex Mortensen
(10/11) 3 straight L's, defense is horrific, Fire Dilfer already
(9/17) Last 2 games: 55 points 1st half, 0 in 2nd
(8/30) Def torched by Ala. St, 300 pass, 200 rush
(8/30) Run Off good vs Ala St, Kitna decent, we'll see
(6/14) RB Jackson has 2k yds past two years (Utep/FCS)
(6/14) Def poor LY, added 17 portals, 5 DL, 10 DBs
(6/14) WR Milliner had decent Fr year, 3 portals, meh
UAB Injury Report

South Florida on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	USF Off	UAB Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#27	#136
SuccessSuc	#118	#104
ExplosiveExp	#10	#21
PPAPPA	#83	#101
PowerPwr	#18	#132
SP+SP+	#12	#132
Pts POPPO	#74	#110
HavocHav	#57	#118

South Florida Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	USF Off	UAB Def
Run GameRun	#19	#129
Run SuccessRSuc	#112	#132
Run ExplRExp	#3	#17
PPAExp	#32	#127
Run BlockR Blk	#76	-
OL YdsOLY	#60	#134
Stuff RateStuff	#45	#130
TackleTak	-	#130

South Florida Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	USF Off	UAB Def
Pass GamePass	#8	#136
Pass SuccessPSuc	#106	#12
Pass ExplPExl	#109	#121
PPAExp	#113	#43
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#18	#104
F7 HavocF7	#62	#132
DB HavocDB	#68	#62

UAB on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UAB Off	USF Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#56	#61
SuccessSuc	#42	#36
ExplosiveExp	#126	#115
PPAPPA	#85	#66
PowerPwr	#96	#53
SP+SP+	#80	#62
Pts POPPO	#109	#88
HavocHav	#106	#15

UAB Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UAB Off	USF Def
Run GameRun	#83	#77
Run SuccessRSuc	#32	#17
Run ExplRExp	#132	#121
PPAExp	#85	#26
Run BlockR Blk	#50	-
OL YdsOLY	#42	#18
Stuff RateStuff	#26	#10
TackleTak	-	#132

UAB Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UAB Off	USF Def
Pass GamePass	#79	#71
Pass SuccessPSuc	#48	#69
Pass ExplPExl	#94	#78
PPAExp	#71	#89
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#50	#8
F7 HavocF7	#111	#11
DB HavocDB	#79	#46

Program Comparison
UAB 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

USF 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Protective Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 81° - Wind: 14 mph

Rematch from Week 13
South Florida 21.5 (68.5)
South Florida won at UAB this year (48-18)

Previous Matchups
South Florida beat UAB last year (48-18)
South Florida beat UAB in 2024 (35-25)
UAB beat South Florida in 2023 (56-35)

USF's OC Joel Gordon (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Byrum Brown	226	341	66%	3158	28	7	9.3
Gaston Moore (Tr)	34	48	71%	290	2	2	6.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Byrum Brown	175	1008	14	5.8	60
Nykahi Davenport	98	612	7	6.2	60
Sam Franklin (Tr)	80	474	4	5.9	73
Alvon Isaac	73	350	0	4.8	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keshaun Singleton	50	877	8	17.5	66
Jeremiah Koger	38	597	8	15.7	63
Mudia Reuben (Tr)	36	495	5	13.8	60
Chas Nimrod (Tr)	23	466	3	20.3	55

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Todd Orlando (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jhalyn Shuler	105	9	3	6	8
Mac Harris	103	8	6	7	2
Tavin Ward	60	2	0	0	2
De'Shawn Rucker	58	2	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Harris	103	8	6	7	2
Jarvis Lee Jr.	55	12	4	4	2
Ricardo Watson	49	7	3	5	1
Jhalyn Shuler	105	9	3	6	8

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jhalyn Shuler	105	9	3	6	8
De'Shawn Rucker	58	2	0	0	4
Jonas Duclona (Tr)	35	3	1	0	4

UAB's OC Alex Mortensen (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jalen Kitna	223	337	66%	2462	13	11	7.3
Ryder Burton (Tr)	62	98	63%	708	7	5	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jevon Jackson (Tr)	167	900	5	5.4	58
Isaiah Jacobs	79	342	4	4.3	23
Solomon Beebe	56	338	6	6.0	81
Nate Rogers	13	84	2	6.5	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Iverson Hooks	72	927	7	12.9	51
BJ Hawkins Jr.	41	540	5	13.2	68
Corri Milliner	24	341	3	14.2	49
Solomon Beebe	31	284	0	9.2	43

View UAB's Full Roster

UAB's DC Steve Russ (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devin Hightower (Tr)	81	3	1	2	0
Jeremiah Vessel (Tr)	54	1	1	0	2
AJ Brown	53	0	0	0	0
Eamon Smalls	50	4	1	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Chris Burge	32	5	4	7
Jonathan Allen	34	3	2	1
Eddy Toussom	46	7	2	3
Eli Ennis (Tr)	11	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Tamarion Crumpley (Tr)	18	2	0	6
Delvon Gulley (Tr)	19	1	1	3
Perry Fisher (Tr)	21	0	0	3