Florida Atlantic at South Florida - 2025 Matchup Preview
Florida Atlantic logo Florida Atlantic Owls at South Florida BullsSouth Florida logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
South Florida -20.5 (72.5) (-1450)  Open: -18.5
South Florida 48 - Florida Atlantic: 13  (American Athletic)

 
Owls (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Zach Kittley (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 30 - 36 (22 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 2)
FAU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: South Florida -26  (SP+ USF -20)

Projected Score: FAU: 21 - USF: 47 (68)
USF Win prob: 94% | Cover: 54%
FAU Travel: 184 miles
Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (13 - 12)
Avg Score : 41 - 23 (51 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.9 - 3.1 (#22)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
 
Florida Atlantic's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida Atlantic at Maryland+16.557.5L 7 - 39UN
Sat 9/6 Florida Atlantic vs Florida A&M-21.051.0W 56 - 14OY
Sat 9/13 Florida Atlantic at Florida International+2.056.5L 28 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Florida Atlantic vs Memphis+14.062.5L 26 - 55ON
Sat 10/4 Florida Atlantic at Rice+4.554.5W 27 - 21UY
Sat 10/11 Florida Atlantic vs UAB-4.566.5W 53 - 33OY
Sat 10/18 Florida Atlantic at South Florida+20.572.5L 13 - 48UN
Sat 10/25 Florida Atlantic at Navy+14.563.5L 32 - 42OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Florida Atlantic vs Tulsa-4.560.5W 40 - 21OY
Sat 11/15 Florida Atlantic at Tulane+16.560.5L 24 - 35UY
Sat 11/22 Florida Atlantic vs UConn+6.064.0L 45 - 48OY
Sat 11/29 Florida Atlantic vs East Carolina+6.566.5L 3 - 42UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Florida Atlantic's Schedule
South Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 South Florida vs Boise State+8.563.5W 34 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 South Florida at Florida+18.558.0W 18 - 16UY
Sat 9/13 South Florida at Miami+17.556.5L 12 - 49ON
Sat 9/20 South Florida vs South Carolina State-36.056.5W 63 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/3 South Florida vs Charlotte-28.554.5W 54 - 26ON
Fri 10/10 South Florida at North Texas+2.568.5W 63 - 36OY
Sat 10/18 South Florida vs Florida Atlantic-20.572.5W 48 - 13UY
Sat 10/25 South Florida at Memphis-3.558.5L 31 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6 South Florida vs UTSA-14.066.5W 55 - 23OY
Sat 11/15 South Florida at Navy-8.562.5L 38 - 41ON
Sat 11/22 South Florida at UAB-21.568.5W 48 - 18UY
Sat 11/29 South Florida vs Rice-28.557.5W 52 - 3UY
Wed 12/17 South Florida vs Old Dominion-4.052.5L 10 - 24UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FAU#80 (.17)39% (108)29.540% (107)3.15 (48)18939% (99)2093.19 (122)#90 (.21)41% (54)36.343% (72)38% (39)3.72 (62)51.61.51.6
USF#83 (.17)38% (118)40.539% (112)3.06 (60)18138% (106)2273.88 (74)#66 (.16)39% (36)23.438% (17)40% (69)4 (88)70.91.42.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FAU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
USF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FAU Offense1229.521.839.2%3.191.520398189209554%45%40%39%17%.17
USF Defense1323.414.339.2%42.1 - - - - - 49%51%38%40%20%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FAU Defense1236.337.240.6%3.721.6 - - - - - 52%47%43%38%16%.21
USF Offense1340.55138.3%3.881.4204081812274.848%52%39%38%15%.17

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida Atlantic1230:2219.535%47%6.651.61.51.65.71.4128.5
South Florida1325:1020.439%56%8.170.91.42.18.12.5230.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FAU Offense1254% (41)40% (107)38189.2524 (45).2 (34)3.15 (48)64% (118)12% (113)1.28 (2)
USF Defense1349% (46)38% (17) - - - - .04 (26)2.63 (18)70% (48)13% (11)1.13 (121)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FAU Defense1252% (86)43% (72) - - - - .16 (87)3.09 (86)83% (124)10% (65)1.05 (97)
USF Offense1348% (82)39% (112)37.8180.84.834 (10).2 (32)3.06 (60)66% (114)10% (62)1.26 (3)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FAU Offense1245% (98)39% (99)17.129.2208.67.212.214 (108)11 (72).19 (96)1.6 (51)33% (105)32% (65).39 (46)5% (37)2.1 (43)
USF Defense1351% (91)40% (69) - - - - - - 13 (31).28 (89)1.6 (78)34% (32)32% (87).3 (64)7% (46)1.9 (32)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FAU Defense1247% (45)38% (39) - - - - - - 11 (52).28 (94)1.8 (129)34% (33)32% (88).35 (91)6% (52)2.2 (108)
USF Offense1352% (51)38% (106)20.234.1227.56.711.316 (87)10 (63).13 (113)1.5 (109)34% (114)25% (121).22 (105)6% (68)2.2 (21)

Florida Atlantic's Power Ratings
Florida Atlantic's Power Rating: -15.22  #120
Florida Atlantic's Offense Rating: 7.75  #101
Florida Atlantic's Defense Rating: 22.97  #126
2025 Talent Rating: 658.00  #83
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
Florida Atlantic's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Florida Atlantic's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.7  #98
Florida Atlantic's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8  #64
Florida Atlantic's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.1  #131

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida Atlantic: -15.22   South Florida: 13.91

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida Atlantic: -8.7   South Florida: 11.6




South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 13.91  #40
South Florida's Offense Rating: 22.51  #18
South Florida's Defense Rating: 11.29  #53
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00  #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
South Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 9.9 - 3.1
South Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.6  #29
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7  #12
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3  #62

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Florida Atlantic Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.8
Defense: 36.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.2

Florida Atlantic's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
South Florida 47
Florida Atlantic 21


Projected Total Points: 68
South Florida Scoring
Offense: 40.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 51
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.3

South Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18South Florida48Florida Atlantic13South Florida -20.5South Florida72.5Under
202411/01Florida Atlantic21South Florida44South Florida -1.5South Florida48.0Over
202310/14South Florida14Florida Atlantic56South Florida -3Florida Atlantic61.0Over
201309/14South Florida10Florida Atlantic28South Florida -10.5Florida Atlantic0
201010/02South Florida31Florida Atlantic3
200710/06Florida Atlantic23South Florida35
200208/29South Florida51Florida Atlantic10
TeamWinsCoversO/U
South Florida522 Overs
Florida Atlantic221 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 41 - 31 - 20 - 1
Road Teams4 - 33 - 11 - 02 - 1

(#120) FAU at (#40) USF
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFAUUSF
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #120 #40
SP+SP+ #98 #29
Perf GradeGrade #106 #38
OffenseOff #87 #27
DefenseDef #114 #61
Spec TeamsST #73 #85
TalentTal #83 #30
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #79
Florida Atlantic Notes
(10/12) 2 straight W's, QB Veltkamp heating up
(9/24) Fastest Off in CFB, snap every 18 seconds
(9/24) Off TOs a huge issue, Success #'s both sides bad
(9/24) Def is awful and hasn't played good Off either
(9/24) Most pass heavy offense, throwing 50 times a game
(8/30) Vetkamp 4 Int vs MD? Run Off awful. Woof
(6/5) Over bet watch, unless Def portals hit big
(6/5) WR rebuild. 5 portal adds. Messer (WKU) good
(6/5) OL complete rebuild. Least exp'd line in CFB
(6/5) OL 1/5 back, 3 PT players, 4 portals. Looks bad
(6/5) 20 portal adds on Def, 9 DL, 9 DBs. Bad LY
(5/17) Kittley Air Raid offense lead by Veltkamp, fun
Florida Atlantic Injury Report
South Florida Notes
(12/16) Hiring Tim Beck as OC for reasons unknown.
(12/3) Hiring OSU OC Brian Hartline, Golesh left for Auburn
(10/10) Mauled N Texas, over 600 yds offense, 300 rushing
(10/4) Still running QB Brown 17 times in Char blowout?
(8/29) QB Brown great vs Boise, tough runner. Big W
(8/28) LB good, exp'd. Starters have over 40 starts
(7/12) Golesh go-go offense could fun after Sept
(6/2) RBs Franklin (OU) & Norton (Char) added
(5/11) OL top 10 exp, 78% returning, 22% via portal
(3/23) QB Brown vs Archie, both inconsistent LY
(3/23) WR lost #1, Nimrod (Tenn)/Singleton good
(3/23) OL returns 4/5. 3 more with exp, 2 portals
South Florida Injury Report
Florida Atlantic on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 36%
CategoryCat
FAU OffUSF Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #87 #61
SuccessSuc #108 #36
ExplosiveExp #5 #115
PPAPPA #80 #66
PowerPwr #101 #53
SP+SP+ #64 #62
Pts POPPO #122 #88
HavocHav #89 #15
Florida Atlantic Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 36%
CategoryCat
FAU OffUSF Def
Run GameRun #125 #77
Run SuccessRSuc #107 #17
Run ExplRExp #2 #121
PPAExp #34 #26
Run BlockR Blk #125 -
OL YdsOLY #48 #18
Stuff RateStuff #66 #10
TackleTak -  #132
Florida Atlantic Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 36%
CategoryCat
FAU OffUSF Def
Pass GamePass #46 #71
Pass SuccessPSuc #99 #69
Pass ExplPExl #51 #78
PPAExp #96 #89
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #41 #8
F7 HavocF7 #113 #11
DB HavocDB #37 #46
South Florida on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatUSF OffFAU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #27 #114
SuccessSuc #118 #54
ExplosiveExp #10 #117
PPAPPA #83 #90
PowerPwr #18 #126
SP+SP+ #12 #131
Pts POPPO #74 #62
HavocHav #57 #61
South Florida Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
USF OffFAU Def
Run GameRun #19 #105
Run SuccessRSuc #112 #72
Run ExplRExp #3 #97
PPAExp #32 #87
Run BlockR Blk #76 -
OL YdsOLY #60 #86
Stuff RateStuff #45 #79
TackleTak -  #69
South Florida Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatUSF OffFAU Def
Pass GamePass #8 #118
Pass SuccessPSuc #106 #39
Pass ExplPExl #109 #129
PPAExp #113 #94
Pass Block/RushP Blk #18 #72
F7 HavocF7 #62 #65
DB HavocDB #68 #52
Program Comparison
USF 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

FAU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Raymond James Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 79°
Rematch from Week 8
South Florida -20.5 (72.5)
South Florida won vs Florida Atlantic this year (48-13)

Previous Matchups
South Florida beat Florida Atlantic last year (48-13)
South Florida beat Florida Atlantic in 2024 (44-21)
Florida Atlantic beat South Florida in 2023 (56-14)

  
FAU's OC Vacant (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Caden Veltkamp (Tr)34551467%365224177.1
Zach Gibson (Tr)315359%323336.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Gemari Sands10546504.437
Kaden Shields-Dutton8346065.550
Xavier Terrell5416113.014
Easton Messer (Tr)351117.039
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Easton Messer (Tr)1001029610.355
Asaad Waseem (Tr)69726510.544
Jayshon Platt46720515.748
Dom Henry40575414.490

View Florida Atlantic's Full Roster

FAU's DC Brett Dewhurst (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Stolsky (Tr)862112
Leon Hart Jr. (Tr)835201
Dillion Williams (Tr)622003
Christopher Keys471001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deshaun Batiste (Tr)234430
Josh Roberts225320
Wilky Denaud295300
Cecil Doggette Jr.247320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Terez Reid (Tr)424008
Damarius McGhee (Tr)300004
Jayden Sweeney (Tr)412034

USF's OC Joel Gordon (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Byrum Brown22634166%31582879.3
Gaston Moore (Tr)344871%290226.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Byrum Brown1751008145.860
Nykahi Davenport9861276.260
Sam Franklin (Tr)8047445.973
Alvon Isaac7335004.849
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keshaun Singleton50877817.566
Jeremiah Koger38597815.763
Mudia Reuben (Tr)36495513.860
Chas Nimrod (Tr)23466320.355

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Todd Orlando (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhalyn Shuler1059368
Mac Harris1038672
Tavin Ward602002
De'Shawn Rucker582004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mac Harris1038672
Jarvis Lee Jr.5512442
Ricardo Watson497351
Jhalyn Shuler1059368
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhalyn Shuler1059368
De'Shawn Rucker582004
Jonas Duclona (Tr)353104