Florida Atlantic at South Florida - 2025 Matchup Preview
Florida Atlantic logo Florida Atlantic Owls at South Florida BullsSouth Florida logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL  (American Athletic)

 
Owls (1 - 2) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Zach Kittley (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (18 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#117)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 3)
FAU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: South Florida -14.5   (SP+ USF -10)

Projected Score: FAU: 18 - USF: 33 (51)
USF Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
FAU Travel: 184 miles
Bulls (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (13 - 12)
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (34 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 3.4 (#31)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 5)
 
Florida Atlantic's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida Atlantic at Maryland+16.557.5L 7 - 39UN
Sat 9/6 Florida Atlantic vs Florida A&M-21.051.0W 56 - 14OY
Sat 9/13 Florida Atlantic at Florida International+2.056.5L 28 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Florida Atlantic vs Memphis+21.5
Sat 10/4 Florida Atlantic at Rice+0.5
Sat 10/11 Florida Atlantic vs UAB-8.5
Sat 10/18 Florida Atlantic at South Florida+14.5
Sat 10/25 Florida Atlantic at Navy+12.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Florida Atlantic vs Tulsa-5
Sat 11/15 Florida Atlantic at Tulane+15.5
Sat 11/22 Florida Atlantic vs UConn+9.5
Sat 11/29 Florida Atlantic vs East Carolina+7.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida Atlantic's Schedule
South Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 South Florida vs Boise State+8.563.5W 34 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 South Florida at Florida+18.558.0W 18 - 16UY
Sat 9/13 South Florida at Miami+17.556.5L 12 - 49ON
Sat 9/20 South Florida vs South Carolina State-27
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/3 South Florida vs Charlotte-23
Fri 10/10 South Florida at North Texas+3.5
Sat 10/18 South Florida vs Florida Atlantic-14.5
Sat 10/25 South Florida at Memphis+14
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6 South Florida vs UTSA-6
Sat 11/15 South Florida at Navy+0.5
Sat 11/22 South Florida at UAB-15.5
Sat 11/29 South Florida vs Rice-16.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FAU#103 (.1)44% (62)30.347% (56)2.53 (109)13043% (72)3273.93 (69)#107 (.22)36% (49)30.336% (48)37% (46)3.08 (54)61.330.3
USF#86 (.15)33% (129)21.328% (134)2.62 (102)9537% (106)2704 (67)#76 (.15)43% (93)2447% (107)40% (69)3.79 (80)48.70.72
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FAU#80 (.17)39% (108)40% (107)3.15 (48)18939% (99)2093.19 (122)#90 (.21)41% (54)43% (72)38% (39)3.72 (62)51.61.51.6
USF#83 (.17)38% (118)39% (112)3.06 (60)18138% (106)2273.88 (74)#66 (.16)39% (36)38% (17)40% (69)4 (88)70.91.42.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FAU Offense330.317.544%3.933264571303274.136%64%47%43%19%.1
USF Defense324743%3.792 - - - - - 46%53%47%40%13%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FAU Defense330.338.536.5%3.080.3 - - - - - 30%70%36%37%16%.22
USF Offense321.33433.3%40.717365952703.443%57%28%37%16%.15

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida Atlantic328:4426.339%44%6.761.330.36.31229.6
South Florida324:2816.737%40%648.70.724.71026.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FAU Offense336% (133)47% (56)32130.34.12 (109).01 (104)2.53 (109)100% (1)8% (65)0.98 (63)
USF Defense346% (44)47% (107) - - - - .08 (77)3.2 (111)80% (107)8% (94)0.75 (24)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FAU Defense330% (1)36% (48) - - - - .06 (66)2 (10)0% (1)8% (97)0.86 (51)
USF Offense343% (111)28% (134)28953.43 (95)-.03 (114)2.62 (102)78% (41)9% (70)1.36 (15)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FAU Offense364% (2)43% (72)32.752.7326.76.2108 (18)9 (136).15 (102)1.5 (89)33% (99)32% (64).5 (41)11% (134)2.3 (25)
USF Defense353% (86)40% (69) - - - - - - 3 (28).26 (82)1.5 (62)30% (96)35% (107).3 (78)5% (85)1.4 (11)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FAU Defense370% (136)37% (46) - - - - - - 0.29 (98)1.6 (93)43% (3)28% (65).27 (69)8% (25)1.9 (55)
USF Offense357% (23)37% (106)21.3342707.912.73 (90)1 (23).29 (69)1.6 (54)41% (131)22% (120).31 (76)7% (113)2.6 (5)

Florida Atlantic's Power Ratings
Florida Atlantic's Power Rating: -7.23 #99
Florida Atlantic's Offense Rating: 4.73 #108
Florida Atlantic's Defense Rating: 11.96 #90
2025 Talent Rating: 658.00 #83
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Florida Atlantic's 2025 Expected Record: 3.9 - 8.1
Florida Atlantic's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.7 #102
Florida Atlantic's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.3 #98
Florida Atlantic's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #103

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida Atlantic: -7.23   South Florida: 6.245

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida Atlantic: -9.7   South Florida: 0.4




South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 6.245 #64
South Florida's Offense Rating: 14.13 #60
South Florida's Defense Rating: 7.04 #68
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00 #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
South Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 3.4
South Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4 #69
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #53
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #91

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Florida Atlantic Scoring
Offense: 30.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.5

Florida Atlantic's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
South Florida 33
Florida Atlantic 18


Total Points: 51

South Florida Scoring
Offense: 21.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 34
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense at Home: 7

South Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/01Florida Atlantic21South Florida44South FloridaSouth Florida -1.5South Florida48.0Over
202310/14South Florida14Florida Atlantic56Florida AtlanticSouth Florida -3Florida Atlantic61.0Over
201309/14South Florida10Florida Atlantic28Florida AtlanticSouth Florida -10.5Florida Atlantic0
201010/02South Florida31Florida Atlantic3South Florida
200710/06Florida Atlantic23South Florida35South Florida
200208/29South Florida51Florida Atlantic10South Florida
TeamWinsCoversO/U
South Florida412 Overs
Florida Atlantic220 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 40 - 30 - 20 - 1
Road Teams4 - 23 - 01 - 02 - 0

(#99) Florida Atlantic Info
Power Rating: -7.23 #99
Offense Rating: 4.73 #108
Defense Rating: 11.96 #90
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.7 #102
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.3 #98
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #103
Talent Rating: 658.00 #83
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Expected Record: 3.9 - 8.1

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.93 PPO
Avg Run Success 47%
Bad Pass Success 43%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 36%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.08 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 36%
Avg Pass Def Success 37%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Florida Atlantic has lost 4 straight
Florida Atlantic has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 2 (0 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Florida Atlantic Notes
(8/30) Vetkamp 4 Int vs MD? Run Off awful. Woof
(6/5) Over bet watch, unless Def portals hit big
(6/5) WR rebuild. 5 portal adds. Messer (WKU) good
(6/5) OL complete rebuild. Least exp'd line in CFB
(6/5) OL 1/5 back, 3 PT players, 4 portals. Looks bad
(6/5) 20 portal adds on Def, 9 DL, 9 DBs. Bad LY
(5/17) Kittley Air Raid offense lead by Veltkamp, fun
(3/24) QB Veltkamp a big portal+ from WKU LY
(3/24) New HC Kittley was OC at T Tech. Likely OC
(3/24) RB complete rebuild. No portals, some depth

Florida Atlantic Highlights
Florida Atlantic Defensive Line is very good (#10)
Florida Atlantic Secondary is very good (#25)
Florida Atlantic defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#)

Florida Atlantic Deficiencies
Florida Atlantic has a bad TO Margin (#135)
Florida Atlantic throws a Lot of Interceptions (#136)
Florida Atlantic does not Sack the QB (#112)
Florida Atlantic gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#104)
Florida Atlantic Does Not Stuff Runs (#119)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUSFFAU
OverallOver#104#59
OffenseOff#100#76
DefenseDef#103#48
Special TeamsST#109#17
PassingPass#70#99
RushingRush#85#86
Run BlockRBLK#114#61
Pass BlockPBLK#66#21
Route RunningWR Rt#93#48
TacklingTkl#114#73
Run DefenseR Def#110#18
Pass Rush DefPRush#96#69
Coverage DefCov#62#81

Previous Matchups
South Florida beat Florida Atlantic last year (44-21)
Florida Atlantic beat South Florida in 2023 (56-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Raymond James Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: FAU | USF
Depth Chart: FAU | USF
Rosters: FAU | USF
(#64) South Florida Info
Power Rating: 6.245 #64
Offense Rating: 14.13 #60
Defense Rating: 7.04 #68
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4 #69
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #53
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #91
Talent Rating: 876.00 #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
Expected Record: 8.6 - 3.4

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 33%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 4 PPO
Awful Run Success 28%
Poor Pass Success 37%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 43%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.79 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

South Florida has lost 4 straight
South Florida has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

South Florida Notes
(8/28) LB good, exp'd. Starters have over 40 starts
(7/12) Golesh go-go offense could fun after Sept
(6/2) RBs Franklin (OU) & Norton (Char) added
(5/11) OL top 10 exp, 78% returning, 22% via portal
(3/23) QB Brown vs Archie, both inconsistent LY
(3/23) WR lost #1, Nimrod (Tenn)/Singleton good
(3/23) OL returns 4/5. 3 more with exp, 2 portals
(3/23) Def bad LY, return a lot. 3 DL portals added
(3/23) OL improve? QB settle? Could be really good
(3/23) HC Golesh former OC. Big year for staff

South Florida Highlights
South Florida is Undefeated at Home
South Florida is Undefeated vs Spread at Home
South Florida is Undefeated vs Spread as Home Underdogs

South Florida offense is explosive (#14)
South Florida does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#21)

South Florida has a great TO Margin (#28)
South Florida defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

South Florida Deficiencies
South Florida Can Not Run the Ball (#123)
South Florida offense is really bad (#129)
South Florida run game is really bad (#134)
South Florida pass game is really bad (#106)
South Florida does not Sack the QB (#112)
South Florida has a bad defensive line (#111)


  
Florida Atlantic's OC Vacant
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Caden Veltkamp (Tr)9013865%880876.4
Zach Gibson (Tr)71547%82025.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Gemari Sands3323207.037
Xavier Terrell237003.014
Kaden Shields-Dutton116015.513
Caden Veltkamp (Tr)232110.912
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Easton Messer (Tr)2521318.530
Asaad Waseem (Tr)14163311.631
Jayshon Platt10146114.638
Dom Henry9127214.140

View Florida Atlantic's Full Roster
Florida Atlantic's DC Brett Dewhurst
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christopher Keys161000
Dillion Williams (Tr)140002
Khmari Johnson (Tr)122000
Zyere Horton121000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Leon Hart Jr. (Tr)21100
Wilky Denaud92100
Deshaun Batiste (Tr)71110
Christopher Keys161000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Terez Reid (Tr)92003
Wendol Philord51002
Damarius McGhee (Tr)20002

South Florida's OC Joel Gordon
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Byrum Brown599662%747217.8
Gaston Moore (Tr)4580%18003.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Byrum Brown4411122.523
Alvon Isaac1410807.749
Cartevious Norton (Tr)154913.38
Sam Franklin (Tr)81902.45
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chas Nimrod (Tr)10248024.855
Keshaun Singleton9207223.066
Wyatt Sullivan (Tr)87509.430
Alvon Isaac774010.629

View South Florida's Full Roster
South Florida's DC Todd Orlando
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhalyn Shuler292002
Mac Harris262220
De'Shawn Rucker211001
Tavin Ward160001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mac Harris262220
Ricardo Watson152110
Jhalyn Shuler292002
Boogsie Silvera (Tr)50000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhalyn Shuler292002
De'Shawn Rucker211001
Tavin Ward160001