NC State at California - 2024 Matchup Preview
NC State logo NC State Wolfpack at California Golden BearsCalifornia logo
Saturday, October 19th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
California -9.5 (46.0) (-355)  Open: -9.5
NC State 24 - California: 23  (ACC)

 
Wolfpack (6 - 7) (4 - 8 - 1)
Coach Dave Doeren (81 - 58)
Avg Score : 29 - 30 (31 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
NCST is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: California -5   (SP+ CAL -0)

Projected Score: NCST: 23 - CAL: 28 (51)
CAL Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
NCST Travel: 2390 miles, 3 hrs ahead
Golden Bears (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (36 - 43)
Avg Score : 25 - 22 (31 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
 
NC State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 NC State vs Western Carolina-32.560.5W 38 - 21UN
Sat 9/7 NC State vs Tennessee+10.060.5L 10 - 51ON
Sat 9/14 NC State vs Louisiana Tech-20.547.5W 30 - 20ON
Sat 9/21 NC State at Clemson+17.044.0L 35 - 59ON
Sat 9/28 NC State vs Northern Illinois-7.046.0W 24 - 17UN
Sat 10/5 NC State vs Wake Forest-4.052.5L 30 - 34ON
Sat 10/12 NC State vs Syracuse+1.051.5L 17 - 24UN
Sat 10/19 NC State at California+9.546.0W 24 - 23OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 NC State vs Stanford-10.046.5W 59 - 28OY
Sat 11/9 NC State vs Duke-3.551.5L 19 - 29UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/21 NC State at Georgia Tech+7.551.5L 29 - 30OY
Sat 11/30 NC State at North Carolina+2.554.5W 35 - 30OY
Sat 12/28 NC State vs East Carolina-7.561.5L 21 - 26UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for NC State's Schedule
California's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 California vs UC Davis-20.556.5W 31 - 13UN
Sat 9/7 California at Auburn+11.552.5W 21 - 14UY
Sat 9/14 California vs San Diego State-18.548.5W 31 - 10UY
Sat 9/21 California at Florida State+3.044.0L 9 - 14UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 California vs Miami+10.054.0L 38 - 39OY
Sat 10/12 California at Pittsburgh+3.557.5L 15 - 17UY
Sat 10/19 California vs NC State-9.546.0L 23 - 24ON
Sat 10/26 California vs Oregon State-13.051.0W 44 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/8 California at Wake Forest-7.554.5W 46 - 36OY
Sat 11/16 California vs Syracuse-10.558.0L 25 - 33UN
Sat 11/23 California vs Stanford-15.053.5W 24 - 21UN
Sat 11/30 California at SMU+11.554.5L 6 - 38UN
Wed 12/18 California vs UNLV+3.045.0L 13 - 24UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for California's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST#26 (.25)45% (36)28.544% (68)3.24 (36)13047% (20)2153.97 (61)#86 (.19)41% (59)30.239% (31)43% (87)3.78 (67)451.71.4
CAL#79 (.17)42% (88)25.140% (104)2.68 (120)12243% (57)2593.07 (125)#48 (.14)40% (52)22.341% (53)40% (67)3.23 (20)59.70.81.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST#26 (.25)45% (36)44% (68)3.24 (36)13047% (20)2153.97 (61)#86 (.19)41% (59)39% (31)43% (87)3.78 (67)451.71.4
CAL#79 (.17)42% (88)40% (104)2.68 (120)12243% (57)2593.07 (125)#48 (.14)40% (52)41% (53)40% (67)3.23 (20)59.70.81.7



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Offense1328.530.845.1%3.971.7193451302154.447%52%44%47%19%.25
CAL Defense1322.32140.4%3.231.7 - - - - - 47%53%41%40%18%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Defense1330.235.540.9%3.781.4 - - - - - 47%53%39%43%20%.19
CAL Offense1325.130.941.5%3.070.8213811222593.641%58%40%43%18%.17

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
NC State1329:1018.637%56%4.8451.71.46.21.8228.9
California1330:3620.737%44%7.459.70.81.75.42.5229.6
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Offense1347% (89)44% (68)29.6130.34.421 (59).15 (56)3.24 (36)69% (92)13% (127)0.98 (59)
CAL Defense1347% (28)41% (53) - - - - .08 (44)2.99 (65)86% (129)10% (72)0.91 (37)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Defense1347% (33)39% (31) - - - - .2 (111)3.07 (83)76% (86)12% (24)1.28 (134)
CAL Offense1341% (121)40% (104)33.7122.23.617 (84).07 (99)2.68 (120)69% (98)13% (126)1.1 (22)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Offense1352% (48)47% (20)18.228.1214.87.711.818 (68)12 (85).36 (24)1.6 (45)30% (35)36% (24).57 (5)6% (83)2.2 (19)
CAL Defense1353% (103)40% (67) - - - - - - 17 (5).21 (52)1.7 (92)33% (44)30% (59).39 (102)8% (12)2.2 (111)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Defense1353% (106)43% (87) - - - - - - 8 (93).19 (47)1.5 (22)33% (49)30% (65).33 (83)8% (16)2.3 (120)
CAL Offense1358% (14)43% (57)23.235.7258.67.311.116 (87)7 (26).25 (72)1.4 (126)36% (128)30% (85).36 (58)5% (23)2.2 (23)

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: -0.50 #66
NC State's Offense Rating: 22.82 #43
NC State's Defense Rating: 12.12 #89
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #33
NC State's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
NC State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #56
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #68

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: -0.50   California: 6.885

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 3.9   California: 4.0




California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 6.885 #44
California's Offense Rating: 18.12 #85
California's Defense Rating: 6.35 #39
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #38
California's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
California's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #55
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #65
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


NC State Scoring
Offense: 28.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.5

NC State's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
California 28
NC State 23


Total Points: 51

California Scoring
Offense: 25.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.9
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

California's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/19California23NC State24NC StateCalifornia -9.5NC State46.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
California001 Overs
NC State110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#66) NC State Info
Power Rating: -0.50 #66
Offense Rating: 22.82 #43
Defense Rating: 12.12 #89
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #56
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #68
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #33
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Great Pass Success 47%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.78 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Bad Pass Def Success 43%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

NC State has lost 2 straight
NC State has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 2 - 2 (3 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

NC State Notes
(11/13) Off abysmal (< 3 ypc) vs Duke, Pass D torched
(10/23) McCall carted off in WF game. Retired
(10/13) Pass D torched by Cuse. QB Bailey much better
(10/6) Team melted late vs Wake (L). Def is awful
(9/28) Off awful (171 yds) vs N Ill. Forced 4 TOs to W
(9/21) 110 pts allowed to Tenn/Clem. Shockingly bad
(9/18) OL disappointing, portals not as good, injuries
(9/17) McCall hurt, Fr CJ Bailey start at QB vs Clemson
(9/15) Off really bad esp Red Zone. McCall hurt vs LT
(9/8) Off disaster, Run D horrific. Did not belong w/ Tenn

NC State Highlights
NC State Front 7 is disruptive (#94)
NC State Secondary is very good (#80)
NC State commits very few Penalties (#75)

NC State Deficiencies
NC State has a bad TO Margin (#11)
NC State Fumbles a Lot (#1)
NC State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#127)
NC State Does Not Stuff Runs (#42)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatCALNCST
OverallOver#49#37
OffenseOff#75#49
DefenseDef#25#36
Special TeamsST#12#79
PassingPass#46#33
RushingRush#77#79
Run BlockRBLK#92#20
Pass BlockPBLK#77#10
Route RunningWR Rt#36#65
TacklingTkl#25#37
Run DefenseR Def#35#43
Pass Rush DefPRush#40#51
Coverage DefCov#36#43

Rematch from Week 8
California -9.5 (46.0)
NC State won at California this year (24-23)

Previous Matchups
NC State beat California last year (24-23)

Weather Forecast
Playing in California Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: NCST | CAL
Depth Chart: NCST | CAL
Rosters: NCST | CAL
(#44) California Info
Power Rating: 6.885 #44
Offense Rating: 18.12 #85
Defense Rating: 6.35 #39
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #55
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #65
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #38
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.07 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Great in Scoring Position 3.23 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

California has lost 3 straight
California has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 4 - 3 (3 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

California Notes
(12/19) QB Caminong cannot play. Period.
(12/11) Hired OC Bryan Harsin (Aub/Boise HC)
(11/25) 5 L's by avg of 3.4 ppg, lowest in CFB
(11/23) Mendoza 299, 3 TDs/Rgame awful in W vs Stan
(11/18) Def bad, 2 TOs cost vs Cuse. Rgame OK, QB bad
(11/13) QB Mend. torched Wake, Rgame bad, WTF Ott?
(10/27) QB Mend. torched Oreg St, Run D outstanding TW
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 14 Def TO's, 4th in CFB
(10/12) OG'd Pitt & D held 1-12 3rd down, 12 flags killer
(10/12) Cal has lost 3 straight heart wrenching games

California Highlights
California Defense Sacks the QB a lot

California defense is really good in red zone (#41)
California Secondary is very good (#17)
California has a great TO Margin (#28)
California defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

California Deficiencies
California Commits a Lot of Penalties (#95)
California Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#76)
California offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#90)
California run game is really bad (#93)


  
NC State's OC Robert Anae
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Bailey19630265%241217108.0
Grayson McCall (Tr)538066%518326.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Daylan Smothers8957166.453
Jordan Waters (Tr)9547044.994
Kendrick Raphael7842535.440
CJ Bailey9927952.831
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Justin Joly (Tr)43661415.440
Noah Rogers (Tr)35478113.775
Kevin Concepcion5345968.742
Wesley Grimes (Tr)24319113.330

View NC State's Full Roster
NC State's DC Tony Gibson
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sean Brown9593131
Donovan Kaufman (Tr)744164
Devon Betty619262
Aydan White590005
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davin Vann4114722
Travali Price379430
Sean Brown9593131
Devon Betty619262
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bishop Fitzgerald557028
Devon Marshall (Tr)331007
Tamarcus Cooley (Tr)393126

California's OC Mike Bloesch
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Fernando Mendoza26538669%30041667.8
CJ Harris (Tr)193161%184015.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaivian Thomas10062676.375
Jadyn Ott11638543.353
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)2612414.860
Fernando Mendoza8710521.250
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jack Endries56623211.157
Nyziah Hunter40578514.560
Trond Grizzell27401114.951
Jonathan Brady (Tr)34366310.830

View California's Full Roster
California's DC Peter Sirmon
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Teddye Buchanan (Tr)10812564
Craig Woodson703017
Cade Uluave683152
Nohl Williams511018
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Carlton4711981
Teddye Buchanan (Tr)10812564
David Reese228512
Ryan McCulloch185381
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nohl Williams511018
Craig Woodson703017
Lu-Magia Hearns III120005