East Carolina at Liberty - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 21st 2024 (6:00 PM EDT)
Liberty -7.5 (55.0) (-285) Open: 0.0
Liberty 35 - East Carolina: 24

Pirates (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Houston (24 - 34)
Avg Score : 33 - 20 (31 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

LIB 2nd straight Home Game
LIB is playing their 4th straight game
ECU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Liberty -3.5 (SP+ LIB -1)
Projected Score: ECU: 26 - LIB: 29 (55)
LIB Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
ECU Travel: 158 miles

Flames (8 - 4) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (13 - 1)
Avg Score : 26 - 27 (32 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ECU Players
LIB Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

East Carolina's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	East Carolina vs Norfolk State	-31.5	51.5	W 42 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/7	East Carolina at Old Dominion	+1.5	53.5	W 20 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/14	East Carolina vs App State	-0.5	56.5	L 19 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/21	East Carolina at Liberty	+7.5	55.0	L 24 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/28	East Carolina vs UTSA	-2.0	53.5	W 30 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/5	East Carolina at Charlotte	-9.5	47.5	L 24 - 55	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	East Carolina at Army	+17.5	54.0	L 28 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/26	East Carolina vs Temple	-8.5	48.5	W 56 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/7	East Carolina vs Florida Atlantic	-5.5	58.5	W 49 - 14	O	Y
Thu 11/14	East Carolina at Tulsa	-16.0	63.5	W 38 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/23	East Carolina at North Texas	+2.5	73.5	W 40 - 28	U	Y
Fri 11/29	East Carolina vs Navy	-2.5	54.0	L 20 - 34	U	N
Sat 12/28	East Carolina vs NC State	+7.5	61.5	W 26 - 21	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for East Carolina's Schedule

Liberty's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Liberty vs Campbell	-41.5	58.5	W 41 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/7	Liberty at New Mexico State	-22.5	54.5	W 30 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/14	Liberty vs UTEP	-23.5	57.5	W 28 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/21	Liberty vs East Carolina	-7.5	55.0	W 35 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/8	Liberty vs Florida International	-15.5	56.0	W 31 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/23	Liberty at Kennesaw State	-27.0	48.0	L 24 - 27	O	N
Wed 10/30	Liberty vs Jacksonville State	-2.5	64.0	L 21 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/9	Liberty at Middle Tennessee	-12.5	54.5	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Liberty at Massachusetts	-17.0	53.0	W 35 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/23	Liberty vs Western Kentucky	-1.0	56.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Fri 11/29	Liberty at Sam Houston	-2.5	47.5	L 18 - 20	U	N
Sat 1/4	Liberty vs Buffalo	+4.5	50.5	L 7 - 26	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ECU	#132 (.02)	33% (132)	32.7	35% (128)	2.85 (111)	112	32% (130)	164	2.62 (129)	#40 (.14)	34% (6)	20.1	30% (2)	39% (37)	2.84 (8)	54.3	1.8	1.3
LIB	#3 (.43)	54% (3)	25.6	56% (3)	3.77 (2)	281	51% (8)	197	4.54 (20)	#59 (.17)	42% (73)	26.5	47% (111)	40% (49)	3.63 (54)	59	1.1	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ECU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
LIB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ECU Offense	12	32.7	30.8	33.3%	2.62	1.8	15	276	112	164	3.5	46%	53%	35%	32%	20%	.02
LIB Defense	14	26.5	27.3	42.3%	3.63	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	43%	55%	47%	40%	18%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ECU Defense	12	20.1	20.8	34.3%	2.84	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	30%	39%	20%	.14
LIB Offense	14	25.6	31.5	54.2%	4.54	1.1	24	478	281	197	6.1	68%	32%	56%	51%	7%	.43

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
East Carolina	12	28:59	15.1	30%	35%	5.8	54.3	1.8	1.3	6.9	1.5	2	30.6
Liberty	14	31:18	23.6	50%	55%	5.9	59	1.1	1.7	4.9	1.7	2	30.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ECU Offense	12	46% (98)	35% (128)	32.2	111.7	3.5	12 (116)	.03 (123)	2.85 (111)	71% (90)	12% (108)	0.97 (87)
LIB Defense	14	43% (9)	47% (111)	-	-	-	-	.19 (94)	3.14 (77)	75% (86)	10% (84)	0.97 (49)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ECU Defense	12	51% (88)	30% (2)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (13)	2.53 (7)	74% (76)	13% (8)	1.19 (124)
LIB Offense	14	68% (4)	56% (3)	45.9	281.3	6.1	39 (2)	.35 (3)	3.77 (2)	85% (4)	5% (1)	0.98 (81)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ECU Offense	12	53% (37)	32% (130)	17.3	32.3	163.9	5.1	9.5	7 (129)	14 (107)	.05 (129)	1.5 (92)	38% (133)	22% (129)	.11 (127)	8% (116)	2.1 (55)
LIB Defense	14	55% (125)	40% (49)	-	-	-	-	-	-	21 (1)	.23 (48)	1.6 (84)	31% (77)	29% (48)	.17 (9)	9% (6)	2.1 (94)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ECU Defense	12	48% (55)	39% (37)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (120)	.32 (100)	1.8 (126)	38% (6)	33% (107)	.43 (116)	6% (53)	2.2 (98)
LIB Offense	14	32% (130)	51% (8)	11.6	19.9	196.9	9.9	16.9	31 (14)	5 (6)	.65 (2)	1.9 (9)	23% (2)	38% (13)	.59 (8)	2% (2)	2.3 (18)

East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: -0.23 #65
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 20.65 #59
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 8.33 #56
2024 Talent Rating: 292.00 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
East Carolina's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
East Carolina's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0 #73
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.5 #58
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #87

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 238.57
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
East Carolina: -0.23 Liberty: 2.89

SP+ Ratings Matchup
East Carolina: -1.0 Liberty: 0.2

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 2.89 #60
Liberty's Offense Rating: 25.37 #17
Liberty's Defense Rating: 6.21 #38
2024 Talent Rating: 274.00 #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Liberty's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Liberty's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.2 #71
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #60
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #70

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 177.5
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.8
Defense: 20.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8

East Carolina's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Liberty 29
East Carolina 26

Projected Total Points: 55

Liberty Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.5
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Liberty's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/21	Liberty	35	East Carolina	24	Liberty -7.5	Liberty	55.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Liberty	1	1	1 Overs
East Carolina	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#65) ECU at (#60) LIB

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ECU	LIB
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#65	#60
SP+SP+	#73	#71
Perf GradeGrade	#58	#36
OffenseOff	#47	#21
DefenseDef	#44	#73
Spec TeamsST	#128	#98
TalentTal	#77	#84
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#82

East Carolina Notes(11/29) Snapped vs Navy, Def abysmal, Rgame awful
(11/26) Interim HC Blake Harrell hired after 5-0 run
(11/25) 4 str W's under Harrell, Off mauled N. Texas
(11/8) Off rolling, 575+ yds, 343 pass/238 rush vs FAU
(10/27) Off had 56 pts in 3 Q's game after Houston fired
(10/20) Run D torched for 295 (5.3 ypc) vs Army
(10/20) HC Houston Fired after Army gm, DC Harrell Int
(10/8) Run D torched for 300+ (6 ypc) vs Char?
(10/8) Slipping after awful '23. Staff done? Quit watch
(9/28) Rgame awful but Garcia good in W over UTSA
(9/23) Have 14 TOs in 4 games (last), Garcia 9 Int
(9/23) Blew 17-0 (Lib), Garcia meh, Rgame meh
East Carolina Injury Report

Liberty Notes(11/25) Rgame 400+ yds (WKU), W vs SHSU=CUSA title gm
(11/18) All. 263 (5.6 ypc) to UMass. Rgame good, Salter not
(10/30) All. 363 yds rush, 7.4 ypc vs Jax St in 2nd L
(10/23) Awful L to Ken St, Off awful outside of Salter
(10/8) Escape FIU, Rgame good, Salter avg, Pass D bad
(10/4) GOY vs App canceled. Play 1 game in entire month
(9/23) Great comeback W (ECU), Rgame good, 13-17 3rd
(9/20) WR is an issue, drops, inconsistent. Off step back
(9/8) Dogfight/Comeback W @ NMSU? 1-11 on 3rd down
(8/3) Roster/Talent vs who they play is a joke.
(7/30) 2nd Easiest sched, fav'd in all, need 13-0 for CFP
(7/30) QB Salter is v good & mobile. Best backfield in G5?
Liberty Injury Report

East Carolina on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	ECU Off	LIB Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#47	#73
SuccessSuc	#132	#73
ExplosiveExp	#89	#85
PPAPPA	#132	#59
PowerPwr	#59	#38
SP+SP+	#58	#70
Pts POPPO	#129	#54
HavocHav	#116	#30

East Carolina Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	ECU Off	LIB Def
Run GameRun	#60	#73
Run SuccessRSuc	#128	#111
Run ExplRExp	#87	#49
PPAExp	#123	#94
Run BlockR Blk	#43	-
OL YdsOLY	#111	#77
Stuff RateStuff	#74	#59
TackleTak	-	#71

East Carolina Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	ECU Off	LIB Def
Pass GamePass	#59	#62
Pass SuccessPSuc	#130	#49
Pass ExplPExl	#92	#84
PPAExp	#129	#48
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#65	#67
F7 HavocF7	#108	#84
DB HavocDB	#116	#6

Liberty on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat	LIB Off	ECU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#21	#44
SuccessSuc	#3	#6
ExplosiveExp	#94	#130
PPAPPA	#3	#40
PowerPwr	#17	#56
SP+SP+	#60	#87
Pts POPPO	#20	#8
HavocHav	#1	#11

Liberty Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat	LIB Off	ECU Def
Run GameRun	#39	#20
Run SuccessRSuc	#3	#2
Run ExplRExp	#81	#124
PPAExp	#3	#13
Run BlockR Blk	#4	-
OL YdsOLY	#2	#7
Stuff RateStuff	#12	#12
TackleTak	-	#76

Liberty Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat	LIB Off	ECU Def
Pass GamePass	#38	#74
Pass SuccessPSuc	#8	#37
Pass ExplPExl	#9	#126
PPAExp	#2	#100
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#102	#75
F7 HavocF7	#1	#8
DB HavocDB	#2	#53

Program Comparison
LIB 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Top G5

ECU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Williams Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Liberty -7.5 (55.0)
Liberty won vs East Carolina this year (35-24)

Previous Matchups
Liberty beat East Carolina in 2024 (35-24)

ECU's OC John David Baker (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Katin Houser (Tr)	149	245	61%	2006	18	11	8.2
Jake Garcia (Tr)	109	181	60%	1426	8	12	7.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rahjai Harris	206	1166	11	5.7	86
London Montgomery (Tr)	71	359	2	5.1	48
Marlon Gunn	61	224	3	3.7	20
Katin Houser (Tr)	49	170	4	3.5	35

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Smith (Tr)	41	799	6	19.5	64
Chase Sowell	34	678	3	19.9	56
Winston Wright	54	556	8	10.3	65
Yannick Smith	25	434	3	17.4	52

View East Carolina's Full Roster

ECU's DC Blake Harrell (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Omar Rogers	105	6	1	2	2
Zakye Barker	81	12	2	1	1
Michael Edwards III	75	9	1	2	4
Ja'Marley Riddle	63	4	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah Morris	31	6	4	2	0
Samuel Dankah	34	7	3	1	2
J.D. Lampley	25	5	2	6	0
Ryheem Craig (Tr)	49	6	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaiah Brown-Murray	40	1	0	0	6
Michael Edwards III	75	9	1	2	4
Ja'Marley Riddle	63	4	0	0	4

LIB's OC Newland Isaac (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kaidon Salter	147	261	56%	1886	15	6	7.2
Ryan Burger (Tr)	8	19	42%	88	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quinton Cooley	205	1254	13	6.1	44
Billy Lucas	123	720	5	5.9	55
Kaidon Salter	114	587	7	5.1	41
Vaughn Blue	35	207	1	5.9	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Treon Sibley	28	510	2	18.2	70
Elijah Canion (Tr)	25	354	3	14.2	50
Reese Smith	18	277	4	15.4	44
Tyson Mobley (Tr)	29	276	1	9.5	25

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Jack Curtis (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Joseph Carter	88	5	2	0	3
T.J. Bush	58	10	6	1	4
Jerome Jolly Jr.	55	5	1	1	1
CJ Bazile Jr.	54	5	2	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
T.J. Bush	58	10	6	1	4
CJ Bazile Jr.	54	5	2	2	0
Quinton Reese	40	5	2	1	0
Joseph Carter	88	5	2	0	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
T.J. Bush	58	10	6	1	4
Joseph Carter	88	5	2	0	3
A'Khori Jones	53	5	0	0	3