UTSA at East Carolina - 2024 Matchup Preview
UTSA logo UTSA Roadrunners at East Carolina PiratesEast Carolina logo
Saturday, September 28th 2024 (4:00 PM EDT)
East Carolina -2 (53.5) (-130)  Open: -3.0
East Carolina 30 - UTSA: 20  (American Athletic)

 
Roadrunners (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jeff Traylor (39 - 14)
Avg Score : 33 - 30 (22 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
ECU is playing their 5th straight game
UTSA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: East Carolina -3   (SP+ UTSA -3)

Projected Score: UTSA: 27 - ECU: 30 (57)
ECU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
UTSA Travel: 1299 miles, 1 hrs behind
Pirates (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Blake Harrell (5 - 0)
Avg Score : 32 - 27 (36 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
UTSA's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 UTSA vs Kennesaw State-24.049.5W 28 - 16UN
Sat 9/7 UTSA at Texas State+2.558.5L 10 - 49ON
Sat 9/14 UTSA at Texas+36.556.5L 7 - 56ON
Sat 9/21 UTSA vs Houston Christian-35.554.5W 45 - 7UY
Sat 9/28 UTSA at East Carolina+2.053.5L 20 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 UTSA at Rice-3.551.0L 27 - 29ON
Sat 10/19 UTSA vs Florida Atlantic-4.052.5W 38 - 24OY
Sat 10/26 UTSA at Tulsa-9.552.5L 45 - 46ON
Sat 11/2 UTSA vs Memphis+7.062.0W 44 - 36OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/15 UTSA vs North Texas-1.073.0W 48 - 27OY
Fri 11/22 UTSA vs Temple-16.556.0W 51 - 27OY
Sat 11/30 UTSA at Army+6.553.5L 24 - 29UY
Mon 12/23 UTSA vs Coastal Carolina-12.556.5W 44 - 15OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UTSA's Schedule
East Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 East Carolina vs Norfolk State-31.551.5W 42 - 3UY
Sat 9/7 East Carolina at Old Dominion+1.553.5W 20 - 14UY
Sat 9/14 East Carolina vs App State-0.556.5L 19 - 21UN
Sat 9/21 East Carolina at Liberty+7.555.0L 24 - 35ON
Sat 9/28 East Carolina vs UTSA-2.053.5W 30 - 20UY
Sat 10/5 East Carolina at Charlotte-9.547.5L 24 - 55ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 East Carolina at Army+17.554.0L 28 - 45OY
Sat 10/26 East Carolina vs Temple-8.548.5W 56 - 34OY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/7 East Carolina vs Florida Atlantic-5.558.5W 49 - 14OY
Thu 11/14 East Carolina at Tulsa-16.063.5W 38 - 31ON
Sat 11/23 East Carolina at North Texas+2.573.5W 40 - 28UY
Fri 11/29 East Carolina vs Navy-2.554.0L 20 - 34UN
Sat 12/28 East Carolina vs NC State+7.561.5W 26 - 21UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for East Carolina's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UTSA#61 (.2)40% (100)33.237% (123)3.03 (70)16943% (61)2833.63 (94)#42 (.13)34% (2)30.132% (1)36% (16)3.78 (66)81.11.71.6
ECU#49 (.22)43% (62)3244% (71)3.07 (57)14743% (54)2533.79 (83)#64 (.16)40% (40)27.337% (11)43% (86)3.85 (76)612.21.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UTSA#61 (.2)40% (100)37% (123)3.03 (70)16943% (61)2833.63 (94)#42 (.13)34% (2)32% (1)36% (16)3.78 (66)81.11.71.6
ECU#49 (.22)43% (62)44% (71)3.07 (57)14743% (54)2533.79 (83)#64 (.16)40% (40)37% (11)43% (86)3.85 (76)612.21.6



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UTSA Offense1333.222.240.1%3.631.7224521692834.546%54%37%43%16%.2
ECU Defense1327.32139.5%3.851.6 - - - - - 54%46%37%43%16%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UTSA Defense1330.139.834.3%3.781.6 - - - - - 46%53%32%36%22%.13
ECU Offense13323643.3%3.792.2204001472534.452%48%44%43%15%.22

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UTSA1331:1021.541%36%8.781.11.71.68.23.2230.4
East Carolina1323:0820.142%53%7.3612.21.66.51.3430.4
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UTSA Offense1346% (97)37% (123)37.71694.521 (59).1 (88)3.03 (70)60% (125)10% (65)1.09 (25)
ECU Defense1354% (109)37% (11) - - - - .03 (22)2.57 (14)57% (3)11% (48)1.02 (84)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UTSA Defense1346% (24)32% (1) - - - - -.03 (5)2.12 (1)63% (16)15% (4)1.2 (129)
ECU Offense1352% (63)44% (71)33.2147.34.420 (67).17 (47)3.07 (57)79% (27)8% (42)1.02 (48)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UTSA Offense1354% (37)43% (61)24.439.2283.57.211.627 (20)13 (103).29 (52)1.5 (82)34% (115)30% (90).34 (67)6% (81)2 (73)
ECU Defense1346% (28)43% (86) - - - - - - 13 (31).32 (105)1.7 (98)33% (51)35% (117).46 (122)5% (104)2.1 (78)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UTSA Defense1353% (112)36% (16) - - - - - - 11 (52).27 (83)1.9 (134)36% (13)27% (22).39 (103)7% (29)2.3 (130)
ECU Offense1348% (72)43% (54)18.530.7252.78.213.726 (26)21 (134).28 (54)1.7 (24)30% (37)34% (33).51 (8)7% (92)2.3 (7)

UTSA's Power Ratings
UTSA's Power Rating: -4.61 #81
UTSA's Offense Rating: 17.26 #91
UTSA's Defense Rating: 6.84 #41
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
UTSA's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
UTSA's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.2 #64
UTSA's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.3 #34
UTSA's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #101

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
UTSA: -4.61   East Carolina: 1.885

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UTSA: 2.2   East Carolina: -1.0




East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: 1.885 #65
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 20.65 #59
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 8.33 #56
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
East Carolina's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
East Carolina's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0 #73
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.5 #58
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #87

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


UTSA Scoring
Offense: 33.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.2
Defense: 30.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.8

UTSA's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
East Carolina 30
UTSA 27


Total Points: 57

East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 27.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

East Carolina's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/28East Carolina30UTSA20East CarolinaEast Carolina -2East Carolina53.5Under
202310/28UTSA41East Carolina27UTSAUT San Antonio -17.5East Carolina48.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
East Carolina121 Overs
UTSA101 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 01 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 21 - 10 - 01 - 1

(#81) UTSA Info
Power Rating: -4.61 #81
Offense Rating: 17.26 #91
Defense Rating: 6.84 #41
Overall SP+ Rating: 2.2 #64
Offense SP+ Rating: 32.3 #34
Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #101
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.63 PPO
Awful Run Success 37%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 34%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.78 PPO
Great Run Def Success 32%
Great Pass Def Success 36%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

UTSA has won 1 straight
UTSA has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 6 (1 - 5 - 0 vs Spread )

UTSA Notes
(11/3) Huge W (Mem), McCown good, forced 2 TOs to W
(10/28) Blew 35-7 halftime lead vs Tulsa. Season killer?
(10/20) Even w/ FAU. McCown good, Def played well
(10/12) Bad L (Rice). Pass D torched, Rgame bad
(9/28) Rgame 170 (4.5)better but Pass D awful vs ECU
(9/15) Off has been really bad. Rgame awful, QB ?
(9/8) Killed by Tex St? Pulled McCown? Rgame just awful
(8/13) Lost DPY DE to Texas, another DE kicked out
(8/13) Starting MLB French suspended indefinitely
(8/13) Lost 3/4 top WR's, new QB, Def suspensions?

UTSA Highlights
UTSA offense is explosive (#11)
UTSA Defense Sacks the QB a lot

UTSA has a really good defense (#77)
UTSA has a good run defense (#54)
UTSA has a good pass defense (#101)
UTSA Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#57)
UTSA Defensive Line is very good (#19)
UTSA Front 7 is disruptive (#74)
UTSA Secondary is very good (#41)

UTSA Deficiencies
UTSA has a bad TO Margin (#1)
UTSA Fumbles a Lot (#1)
UTSA Commits a Lot of Penalties (#59)
UTSA throws a Lot of Interceptions (#1)
UTSA offense is really bad (#74)
UTSA Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#48)
UTSA run game is really bad (#72)
UTSA gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#130)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatECUUTSA
OverallOver#42#50
OffenseOff#41#72
DefenseDef#33#27
Special TeamsST#105#59
PassingPass#47#26
RushingRush#43#56
Run BlockRBLK#34#61
Pass BlockPBLK#57#95
Route RunningWR Rt#32#71
TacklingTkl#66#103
Run DefenseR Def#16#15
Pass Rush DefPRush#66#18
Coverage DefCov#60#74

Rematch from Week 5
East Carolina -2.0 (53.5)
East Carolina won vs UTSA this year (30-20)

Previous Matchups
East Carolina beat UTSA last year (30-20)
UTSA beat East Carolina in 2023 (41-27)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UTSA | ECU
Depth Chart: UTSA | ECU
Rosters: UTSA | ECU
(#65) East Carolina Info
Power Rating: 1.885 #65
Offense Rating: 20.65 #59
Defense Rating: 8.33 #56
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0 #73
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.5 #58
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #87
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 43%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.79 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 40%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.85 PPO
Great Run Def Success 37%
Bad Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

East Carolina has lost 2 straight
East Carolina has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 4 - 2 (4 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

East Carolina Notes
(11/26) Interim HC Blake Harrell hired after 5-0 run
(11/25) 4 str W's under Harrell, Off mauled N. Texas
(11/8) Off rolling, 575+ yds, 343 pass/238 rush vs FAU
(10/27) Off had 56 pts in 3 Q's game after Houston fired
(10/20) Run D torched for 295 (5.3 ypc) vs Army
(10/20) HC Houston Fired after Army gm, DC Harrell Int
(10/8) Run D torched for 300+ (6 ypc) vs Char?
(10/8) Slipping after awful '23. Staff done? Quit watch
(9/28) Rgame awful but Garcia good in W over UTSA
(9/23) Have 14 TOs in 4 games (last), Garcia 9 Int

East Carolina Highlights
East Carolina offense is explosive (#31)
East Carolina has a good run defense (#44)
East Carolina Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#5)
East Carolina Defensive Line is very good (#15)

East Carolina Deficiencies
East Carolina has a bad TO Margin (#11)
East Carolina Commits a Lot of Penalties (#127)
East Carolina throws a Lot of Interceptions (#23)
East Carolina does not Sack the QB (#31)
East Carolina gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#91)


  
UTSA's OC Justin Burke
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Owen McCown29446763%342425107.3
Eddie Lee Marburger224055%234235.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Robert Henry13070675.488
Brandon High9349585.366
Owen McCown8634034.075
Kevorian Barnes7822122.817
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Willie McCoy28536419.166
Chris Carpenter39479112.369
Houston Thomas34470313.844
Devin Mccuin4542459.454

View UTSA's Full Roster
UTSA's DC Jess Loepp
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Martavius French8017143
Elliott Davison580004
Brevin Randle (Tr)483144
Jamal Ligon467343
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jimmori Robinson44181181
Ronald Triplette235420
Brandon Brown299410
Jamal Ligon467343
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zah Frazier241019
Tyan Milton182115
Elliott Davison580004

East Carolina's OC John David Baker
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Katin Houser (Tr)14924561%200618118.2
Jake Garcia (Tr)10918160%14268127.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rahjai Harris2061166115.786
London Montgomery (Tr)7135925.148
Marlon Gunn6122433.720
Katin Houser (Tr)4917043.535
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Smith (Tr)41799619.564
Chase Sowell34678319.956
Winston Wright54556810.365
Yannick Smith25434317.452

View East Carolina's Full Roster
East Carolina's DC Blake Harrell
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Omar Rogers1056122
Zakye Barker8112211
Michael Edwards III759124
Ja'Marley Riddle634004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Morris316420
Samuel Dankah347312
J.D. Lampley255260
Ryheem Craig (Tr)496210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Brown-Murray401006
Michael Edwards III759124
Ja'Marley Riddle634004