App State at East Carolina - 2024 Matchup Preview

App State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates

Saturday, September 14th 2024 (4:00 PM EDT)
East Carolina -0.5 (56.5) (-105) Open: -2.5 | 57.5
App State 21 - East Carolina: 19

Mountaineers (5 - 6) (3 - 7 - 1)
Coach Shawn Clark (35 - 18)
Avg Score : 27 - 33 (24 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 6 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

APP 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: East Carolina -10.5 (SP+ ECU -7)
Projected Score: APP: 24 - ECU: 35 (59)
ECU Win prob: 53% | Cover: 53%
APP Travel: 246 miles

Pirates (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Blake Harrell (5 - 0)
Avg Score : 32 - 27 (36 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
APP Players
ECU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

App State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	App State vs East Tennessee State	-35.5	58.5	W 38 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/7	App State at Clemson	+13.5	53.5	L 20 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/14	App State at East Carolina	+0.5	56.5	W 21 - 19	U	Y
Thu 9/19	App State vs South Alabama	-8.0	62.5	L 14 - 48	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	App State at Marshall	+3.0	56.5	L 37 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/12	App State at Louisiana	+10.0	64.0	L 24 - 34	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	App State vs Georgia State	-7.5	59.0	W 33 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/2	App State vs Old Dominion	+2.5	58.0	W 28 - 20	U	Y
Thu 11/7	App State at Coastal Carolina	-1.5	62.5	L 24 - 38	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	App State vs James Madison	+7.5	57.5	W 34 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/30	App State at Georgia Southern	+2.5	60.5	L 20 - 29	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for App State's Schedule

East Carolina's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	East Carolina vs Norfolk State	-31.5	51.5	W 42 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/7	East Carolina at Old Dominion	+1.5	53.5	W 20 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/14	East Carolina vs App State	-0.5	56.5	L 19 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/21	East Carolina at Liberty	+7.5	55.0	L 24 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/28	East Carolina vs UTSA	-2.0	53.5	W 30 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/5	East Carolina at Charlotte	-9.5	47.5	L 24 - 55	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	East Carolina at Army	+17.5	54.0	L 28 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/26	East Carolina vs Temple	-8.5	48.5	W 56 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/7	East Carolina vs Florida Atlantic	-5.5	58.5	W 49 - 14	O	Y
Thu 11/14	East Carolina at Tulsa	-16.0	63.5	W 38 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/23	East Carolina at North Texas	+2.5	73.5	W 40 - 28	U	Y
Fri 11/29	East Carolina vs Navy	-2.5	54.0	L 20 - 34	U	N
Sat 12/28	East Carolina vs NC State	+7.5	61.5	W 26 - 21	U	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
APP	#57 (.21)	44% (60)	26.6	45% (58)	3.01 (75)	157	43% (62)	273	3.89 (71)	#123 (.3)	49% (127)	32.9	51% (130)	47% (119)	4.78 (132)	57	2	1.2
ECU	#49 (.22)	43% (62)	32	44% (71)	3.07 (57)	147	43% (54)	253	3.79 (83)	#64 (.16)	40% (40)	27.3	37% (11)	43% (86)	3.85 (76)	61	2.2	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
APP	#57 (.21)	44% (60)		45% (58)	3.01 (75)	157	43% (62)	273	3.89 (71)	#123 (.3)	49% (127)		51% (130)	47% (119)	4.78 (132)	57	2	1.2
ECU	#49 (.22)	43% (62)		44% (71)	3.07 (57)	147	43% (54)	253	3.79 (83)	#64 (.16)	40% (40)		37% (11)	43% (86)	3.85 (76)	61	2.2	1.6

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
APP Offense	11	26.6	24.3	43.6%	3.89	2	24	430	157	273	4.5	48%	51%	45%	43%	16%	.21
ECU Defense	13	27.3	21	39.5%	3.85	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	37%	43%	16%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
APP Defense	11	32.9	39.7	49%	4.78	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	51%	47%	12%	.3
ECU Offense	13	32	36	43.3%	3.79	2.2	20	400	147	253	4.4	52%	48%	44%	43%	15%	.22

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
App State	11	30:06	23.9	43%	59%	6	57	2	1.2	4.3	2.1	1	27.6
East Carolina	13	23:08	20.1	42%	53%	7.3	61	2.2	1.6	6.5	1.3	4	30.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
APP Offense	11	48% (81)	45% (58)	34.9	157.4	4.5	13 (105)	.1 (89)	3.01 (75)	80% (21)	7% (15)	0.89 (104)
ECU Defense	13	54% (109)	37% (11)	-	-	-	-	.03 (22)	2.57 (14)	57% (3)	11% (48)	1.02 (84)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
APP Defense	11	56% (124)	51% (130)	-	-	-	-	.26 (128)	3.41 (125)	77% (94)	9% (89)	1.04 (94)
ECU Offense	13	52% (63)	44% (71)	33.2	147.3	4.4	20 (67)	.17 (47)	3.07 (57)	79% (27)	8% (42)	1.02 (48)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
APP Offense	11	51% (53)	43% (62)	19.8	35.6	272.9	7.7	13.8	23 (41)	16 (124)	.32 (41)	1.8 (13)	35% (122)	37% (15)	.46 (19)	9% (130)	2.2 (18)
ECU Defense	13	46% (28)	43% (86)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.32 (105)	1.7 (98)	33% (51)	35% (117)	.46 (122)	5% (104)	2.1 (78)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
APP Defense	11	44% (10)	47% (119)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.37 (119)	1.5 (46)	26% (133)	35% (115)	.38 (100)	2% (134)	2 (62)
ECU Offense	13	48% (72)	43% (54)	18.5	30.7	252.7	8.2	13.7	26 (26)	21 (134)	.28 (54)	1.7 (24)	30% (37)	34% (33)	.51 (8)	7% (92)	2.3 (7)

App State's Power Ratings
App State's Power Rating: -8.96 #97
App State's Offense Rating: 21.99 #50
App State's Defense Rating: 17.06 #121
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
App State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 6.0
App State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.1 #100
App State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #67
App State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.6 #110

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
App State: -8.96 East Carolina: 1.885

SP+ Ratings Matchup
App State: -8.1 East Carolina: -1.0

East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: 1.885 #65
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 20.65 #59
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 8.33 #56
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
East Carolina's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
East Carolina's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0 #73
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.5 #58
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #87

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

App State Scoring
Offense: 26.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.3
Defense: 32.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.7

App State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 6
Record vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 2 - 9
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
East Carolina 35
App State 24

Total Points: 59

Based on Last 4 Games
East Carolina 40
App State 22

Total Points: 62

Based on Entire Season
East Carolina 35
App State 25

Total Points: 60

East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 27.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

East Carolina's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/14	East Carolina	19	App State	21	East Carolina -0.5	App State	56.5	Under
2023	09/16	App State	43	East Carolina	28	Appalachian State -7.5	App State	48.5	Over
2021	09/02	App State	33	East Carolina	19	Appalachian State -9	App State	55.5	Under
2012	09/01	East Carolina	35	App State	13
2009	09/05	East Carolina	29	App State	24

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
East Carolina	2	0	1 Overs
App State	3	3	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 1	2 - 1	2 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 4	1 - 2	0 - 0	1 - 2

(#97) APP at (#65) ECU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	APP	ECU
Power RatePwr	#97	#65
SP+SP+	#100	#73
Perf GradeGrade	#84	#58
OffenseOff	#70	#47
DefenseDef	#92	#44
Spec TeamsST	#69	#128
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#102

App State Notes(12/10) Hired HC Loggains (OC/QB S Car 23-24)
(12/2) HC Clark fired after 40-24 in 5 yrs, Huff rumors?
(11/25) Huge upset vs JMU, box score L but 2 Def TOs
(11/8) Run D bad vs C.Car, 3 TO's hurt. QB Aguilar 2 INT
(11/3) Pass D torched by ODU, Aguilar good, forced 4 TOs
(10/22) Def stop rate 42% (#127) into week 9
(10/12) OG'd ULL but 5 TO's, QB/Rgame OK, Def meh
(9/23) Clark & staff better improve, feels stale/bad
(9/23) Missed 26 tackles! vs S Al
(9/19) This Off looks broken. Rgame awful, Aguilar erratic
(9/12) D not P5 ready, 712 yds to Clem. QB Aguilar ?
(7/30) QB Aguilar v good, WRs all back, lost RB to Mizzu.
App State Injury Report

East Carolina Notes(11/29) Snapped vs Navy, Def abysmal, Rgame awful
(11/26) Interim HC Blake Harrell hired after 5-0 run
(11/25) 4 str W's under Harrell, Off mauled N. Texas
(11/8) Off rolling, 575+ yds, 343 pass/238 rush vs FAU
(10/27) Off had 56 pts in 3 Q's game after Houston fired
(10/20) Run D torched for 295 (5.3 ypc) vs Army
(10/20) HC Houston Fired after Army gm, DC Harrell Int
(10/8) Run D torched for 300+ (6 ypc) vs Char?
(10/8) Slipping after awful '23. Staff done? Quit watch
(9/28) Rgame awful but Garcia good in W over UTSA
(9/23) Have 14 TOs in 4 games (last), Garcia 9 Int
(9/23) Blew 17-0 (Lib), Garcia meh, Rgame meh
East Carolina Injury Report

App State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	APP Off	ECU Def
Perf GradePerf	#70	#44
SuccessSuc	#60	#40
ExplosiveExp	#28	#100
PPAPPA	#57	#64
PowerPwr	#50	#56
SP+SP+	#67	#87
Pts POPPO	#71	#76
HavocHav	#66	#69

App State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	APP Off	ECU Def
Run GameRun	#48	#20
Run SuccessRSuc	#58	#11
Run ExplRExp	#104	#84
PPAExp	#89	#22
Run BlockR Blk	#54	-
OL YdsOLY	#75	#14
Stuff RateStuff	#87	#11
TackleTak	-	#76

App State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	APP Off	ECU Def
Pass GamePass	#95	#74
Pass SuccessPSuc	#62	#86
Pass ExplPExl	#13	#98
PPAExp	#41	#105
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#96	#75
F7 HavocF7	#15	#48
DB HavocDB	#130	#104

East Carolina on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	ECU Off	APP Def
Perf GradePerf	#47	#92
SuccessSuc	#62	#127
ExplosiveExp	#18	#53
PPAPPA	#49	#123
PowerPwr	#59	#121
SP+SP+	#58	#110
Pts POPPO	#83	#132
HavocHav	#50	#132

East Carolina Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	ECU Off	APP Def
Run GameRun	#60	#88
Run SuccessRSuc	#71	#130
Run ExplRExp	#48	#94
PPAExp	#47	#128
Run BlockR Blk	#43	-
OL YdsOLY	#57	#125
Stuff RateStuff	#65	#113
TackleTak	-	#86

East Carolina Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	ECU Off	APP Def
Pass GamePass	#59	#109
Pass SuccessPSuc	#54	#119
Pass ExplPExl	#24	#46
PPAExp	#54	#119
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#65	#34
F7 HavocF7	#42	#89
DB HavocDB	#92	#134

Program Comparison
ECU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

APP 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 3
East Carolina -0.5 (56.5)
App State won at East Carolina this year (21-19)

Previous Matchups
App State beat East Carolina last year (21-19)
App State beat East Carolina in 2023 (43-28)

APP's OC Frank Ponce (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Joey Aguilar	218	390	56%	3002	23	14	7.7
Kaedin Robinson	0	1	0%	0	0	1	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ahmani Marshall	149	713	7	4.8	29
Kanye Roberts	82	332	1	4.0	18
Anderson Castle	50	246	1	4.9	21
Joey Aguilar	58	217	2	3.7	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kaedin Robinson	53	840	2	15.8	50
Makai Jackson	46	745	5	16.2	64
Christan Horn	19	367	1	19.3	83
Dalton Stroman	20	307	5	15.4	47

View App State's Full Roster

APP's DC Scott Sloan (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Brendan Harrington	55	1	1	1
Kyle Arnholt	54	2	2	0
DJ Burks	52	3	0	0
Jason Chambers (Tr)	37	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Thomas Davis	35	6	4	1
Santana Hopper	30	8	4	0
Michael Fletcher	16	4	4	6
Joshua Donald (Tr)	31	6	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jordan Favors	33	1	0	4
Ethan Johnson	22	0	1	2
Brendan Harrington	55	1	1	1

ECU's OC John David Baker (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Katin Houser (Tr)	149	245	61%	2006	18	11	8.2
Jake Garcia (Tr)	109	181	60%	1426	8	12	7.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rahjai Harris	206	1166	11	5.7	86
London Montgomery (Tr)	71	359	2	5.1	48
Marlon Gunn	61	224	3	3.7	20
Katin Houser (Tr)	49	170	4	3.5	35

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Smith (Tr)	41	799	6	19.5	64
Chase Sowell	34	678	3	19.9	56
Winston Wright	54	556	8	10.3	65
Yannick Smith	25	434	3	17.4	52

View East Carolina's Full Roster

ECU's DC Blake Harrell (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Omar Rogers	105	6	1	2	2
Zakye Barker	81	12	2	1	1
Michael Edwards III	75	9	1	2	4
Ja'Marley Riddle	63	4	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah Morris	31	6	4	2	0
Samuel Dankah	34	7	3	1	2
J.D. Lampley	25	5	2	6	0
Ryheem Craig (Tr)	49	6	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaiah Brown-Murray	40	1	0	0	6
Michael Edwards III	75	9	1	2	4
Ja'Marley Riddle	63	4	0	0	4