Tennessee at NC State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Tennessee Volunteers vs NC State Wolfpack

Saturday, September 7th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
Tennessee -10 (60.5) (-340) Open: -4.5
Tennessee 51 - NC State: 10 (Duke’s Mayo Classic)

Volunteers (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Josh Heupel (27 - 12)
Avg Score : 40 - 29 (37 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NCST 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Tennessee -17 (SP+ TENN -18)
Projected Score: TENN: 39 - NCST: 22 (62)
TENN Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
TENN Travel: 180 miles

Wolfpack (6 - 7) (4 - 8 - 1)
Coach Dave Doeren (81 - 58)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (35 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TENN Players
NCST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Tennessee vs Chattanooga	-38.5	56.5	W 69 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Tennessee vs NC State	-10.0	60.5	W 51 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Tennessee vs Kent State	-49.5	61.5	W 71 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Tennessee at Oklahoma	-6.0	57.0	W 25 - 15	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Tennessee at Arkansas	-14.0	57.5	L 14 - 19	U	N
Sat 10/12	Tennessee vs Florida	-13.5	54.5	W 23 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/19	Tennessee vs Alabama	+3.5	57.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Tennessee vs Kentucky	-17.5	45.5	W 28 - 18	O	N
Sat 11/9	Tennessee vs Mississippi State	-26.5	61.5	W 33 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/16	Tennessee at Georgia	+8.5	47.0	L 17 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/23	Tennessee vs UTEP	-41.5	54.0	W 56 - 0	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Tennessee at Vanderbilt	-9.5	45.5	W 36 - 23	O	Y
Sat 12/21	Tennessee at Ohio State	+7.5	47.0	L 17 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Tennessee's Schedule

NC State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	NC State vs Western Carolina	-32.5	60.5	W 38 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/7	NC State vs Tennessee	+10.0	60.5	L 10 - 51	O	N
Sat 9/14	NC State vs Louisiana Tech	-20.5	47.5	W 30 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/21	NC State at Clemson	+17.0	44.0	L 35 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/28	NC State vs Northern Illinois	-7.0	46.0	W 24 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/5	NC State vs Wake Forest	-4.0	52.5	L 30 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/12	NC State vs Syracuse	+1.0	51.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/19	NC State at California	+9.5	46.0	W 24 - 23	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	NC State vs Stanford	-10.0	46.5	W 59 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/9	NC State vs Duke	-3.5	51.5	L 19 - 29	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/21	NC State at Georgia Tech	+7.5	51.5	L 29 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/30	NC State at North Carolina	+2.5	54.5	W 35 - 30	O	Y
Sat 12/28	NC State vs East Carolina	-7.5	61.5	L 21 - 26	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TENN	#36 (.27)	46% (24)	39.8	46% (39)	3.31 (30)	187	47% (25)	232	3.56 (94)	#54 (.16)	39% (35)	28.8	37% (19)	41% (65)	3.41 (34)	65.6	0.9	1.2
NCST	#89 (.15)	40% (100)	30.2	40% (96)	3.11 (68)	157	39% (96)	194	4.11 (47)	#16 (.1)	39% (34)	27.2	39% (34)	40% (40)	3.77 (66)	46.3	1.2	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TENN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NCST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TENN Offense	13	39.8	37	46.3%	3.56	0.9	20	419	187	232	5.6	51%	49%	46%	47%	13%	.27
NCST Defense	13	27.2	21	38.8%	3.77	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	44%	54%	39%	40%	19%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TENN Defense	13	28.8	29	38.9%	3.41	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	37%	41%	18%	.16
NCST Offense	13	30.2	35.3	39.5%	4.11	1.2	19	350	157	194	4.3	52%	48%	40%	39%	18%	.15

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Tennessee	13	22:32	19.9	43%	31%	7.5	65.6	0.9	1.2	7.2	2.8	4	30.3
NC State	13	32:27	18.5	40%	60%	5.8	46.3	1.2	1.9	5.5	2.5	3	30.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TENN Offense	13	51% (60)	46% (39)	33.5	186.9	5.6	20 (61)	.22 (28)	3.31 (30)	72% (80)	7% (16)	1.05 (39)
NCST Defense	13	44% (11)	39% (34)	-	-	-	-	.12 (55)	2.88 (31)	66% (27)	11% (32)	1.07 (103)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TENN Defense	13	48% (41)	37% (19)	-	-	-	-	.05 (21)	2.71 (15)	65% (24)	13% (11)	1.03 (85)
NCST Offense	13	52% (52)	40% (96)	36.8	156.6	4.3	19 (69)	.13 (83)	3.11 (68)	80% (20)	12% (106)	0.93 (100)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TENN Offense	13	49% (69)	47% (25)	19.3	30.1	231.7	7.7	12	21 (65)	5 (6)	.35 (39)	1.5 (110)	30% (39)	32% (64)	.38 (54)	6% (68)	2.1 (63)
NCST Defense	13	54% (122)	40% (40)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.14 (15)	1.5 (28)	36% (17)	29% (50)	.2 (19)	7% (25)	1.9 (16)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TENN Defense	13	52% (96)	41% (65)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.29 (85)	1.6 (85)	35% (27)	31% (82)	.36 (93)	5% (100)	2 (41)
NCST Offense	13	48% (80)	39% (96)	17.2	29.2	193.8	6.7	11.3	19 (78)	12 (85)	.2 (95)	1.6 (67)	34% (102)	27% (101)	.27 (90)	6% (72)	2 (92)

Tennessee's Power Ratings
Tennessee's Power Rating: 15.13 #14
Tennessee's Offense Rating: 20.60 #61
Tennessee's Defense Rating: 3.79 #16
2024 Talent Rating: 521.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 44% #12
Tennessee's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Tennessee's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 22.0 #9
Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.7 #23
Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.5 #6

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Tennessee: 15.13 NC State: 1.7

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tennessee: 22.0 NC State: 3.9

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 1.7 #66
NC State's Offense Rating: 22.82 #43
NC State's Defense Rating: 12.12 #89
2024 Talent Rating: 393.00 #36
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #33
NC State's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
NC State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #56
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #68

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 39.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 29

Tennessee's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Tennessee 39
NC State 22

Projected Total Points: 62

NC State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.3
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

NC State's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/07	NC State	10	Tennessee	51	Tennessee -10	Tennessee	60.5	Over
2012	08/31	Tennessee	35	NC State	21

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
NC State	0	0	1 Overs
Tennessee	2	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0

(#14) TENN at (#66) NCST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TENN	NCST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#14	#66
SP+SP+	#9	#56
Perf GradeGrade	#21	#51
OffenseOff	#57	#58
DefenseDef	#19	#49
Spec TeamsST	#42	#94
TalentTal	#15	#36
Blue ChipsBC%	#12	#33

Tennessee Injury Report

NC State Notes(11/25) Rgame mauled GT, but 3 Bailey INTs, bad Def
(11/13) Off abysmal (< 3 ypc) vs Duke, Pass D torched
(10/23) McCall carted off in WF game. Retired
(10/13) Pass D torched by Cuse. QB Bailey much better
(10/6) Team melted late vs Wake (L). Def is awful
(9/28) Off awful (171 yds) vs N Ill. Forced 4 TOs to W
(9/21) 110 pts allowed to Tenn/Clem. Shockingly bad
(9/18) OL disappointing, portals not as good, injuries
(9/17) McCall hurt, Fr CJ Bailey start at QB vs Clemson
(9/15) Off really bad esp Red Zone. McCall hurt vs LT
(9/8) Off disaster, Run D horrific. Did not belong w/ Tenn
(9/1) Close w/ W Car, gave up 9 TFLs, McCall good
NC State Injury Report

Tennessee on Offense

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	TENN Off	NCST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#57	#49
SuccessSuc	#24	#34
ExplosiveExp	#86	#72
PPAPPA	#36	#16
PowerPwr	#61	#89
SP+SP+	#23	#68
Pts POPPO	#94	#66
HavocHav	#21	#22

Tennessee Run Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	TENN Off	NCST Def
Run GameRun	#25	#53
Run SuccessRSuc	#39	#34
Run ExplRExp	#39	#103
PPAExp	#28	#55
Run BlockR Blk	#89	-
OL YdsOLY	#30	#31
Stuff RateStuff	#10	#23
TackleTak	-	#41

Tennessee Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	TENN Off	NCST Def
Pass GamePass	#21	#54
Pass SuccessPSuc	#25	#40
Pass ExplPExl	#110	#28
PPAExp	#39	#15
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#75	#57
F7 HavocF7	#16	#32
DB HavocDB	#68	#25

NC State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	NCST Off	TENN Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#58	#19
SuccessSuc	#100	#35
ExplosiveExp	#97	#104
PPAPPA	#89	#54
PowerPwr	#43	#16
SP+SP+	#47	#6
Pts POPPO	#47	#34
HavocHav	#97	#35

NC State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	NCST Off	TENN Def
Run GameRun	#110	#14
Run SuccessRSuc	#96	#19
Run ExplRExp	#100	#85
PPAExp	#83	#21
Run BlockR Blk	#24	-
OL YdsOLY	#68	#15
Stuff RateStuff	#65	#28
TackleTak	-	#29

NC State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	NCST Off	TENN Def
Pass GamePass	#40	#27
Pass SuccessPSuc	#96	#65
Pass ExplPExl	#67	#85
PPAExp	#95	#85
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#10	#13
F7 HavocF7	#106	#11
DB HavocDB	#72	#100

Program Comparison
NCST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

TENN 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'24 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bank of America Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
Tennessee 10.0 (60.5)
Tennessee won at NC State this year (51-10)

Previous Matchups
Tennessee beat NC State in 2024 (51-10)

TENN's OC Joey Halzle (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nico Iamaleava	213	334	64%	2616	19	5	7.8
Gaston Moore	16	27	59%	201	2	2	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dylan Sampson	258	1491	22	5.8	56
DeSean Bishop	74	455	3	6.1	53
Nico Iamaleava	109	364	3	3.3	31
Peyton Lewis	64	339	3	5.3	35

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dont'E Thornton	26	661	6	25.4	86
Bru McCoy	39	472	2	12.1	42
Squirrel White	34	381	2	11.2	45
Chris Brazzell II (Tr)	29	333	2	11.5	53

View Tennessee's Full Roster

TENN's DC Tim Banks (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Arion Carter	68	7	0	3	6
Will Brooks	59	4	1	1	5
Jermod McCoy (Tr)	44	1	0	0	7
Jeremiah Telander	43	4	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
James Pearce Jr.	38	13	8	10	1
Omarr Norman-Lott	18	4	4	3	0
Jaxson Moi (Tr)	16	5	2	0	1
Tyre West	16	5	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jermod McCoy (Tr)	44	1	0	0	7
Arion Carter	68	7	0	3	6
Will Brooks	59	4	1	1	5

NCST's OC Robert Anae (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
CJ Bailey	196	302	65%	2412	17	10	8.0
Grayson McCall (Tr)	53	80	66%	518	3	2	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Daylan Smothers	89	571	6	6.4	53
Jordan Waters (Tr)	95	470	4	4.9	94
Kendrick Raphael	78	425	3	5.4	40
CJ Bailey	99	279	5	2.8	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Justin Joly (Tr)	43	661	4	15.4	40
Noah Rogers (Tr)	35	478	1	13.7	75
Kevin Concepcion	53	459	6	8.7	42
Wesley Grimes (Tr)	24	319	1	13.3	30

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC Tony Gibson (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sean Brown	95	9	3	13	1
Donovan Kaufman (Tr)	74	4	1	6	4
Devon Betty	61	9	2	6	2
Aydan White	59	0	0	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davin Vann	41	14	7	2	2
Travali Price	37	9	4	3	0
Sean Brown	95	9	3	13	1
Devon Betty	61	9	2	6	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bishop Fitzgerald	55	7	0	2	8
Devon Marshall (Tr)	33	1	0	0	7
Tamarcus Cooley (Tr)	39	3	1	2	6