NC State at Clemson - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 21st 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Clemson -17 (44.0) (-800) Open: -7.5
Clemson 59 - NC State: 35 (ACC)

Wolfpack (6 - 7) (4 - 8 - 1)
Coach Dave Doeren (81 - 58)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (23 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

CLEM coming off BYE
NCST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Clemson -14.5 (SP+ CLEM -9)
Projected Score: NCST: 17 - CLEM: 32 (49)
CLEM Win prob: 90% | Cover: 52%
NCST Travel: 245 miles

Tigers (10 - 4) (6 - 8 - 0)
Coach Dabo Swinney (170 - 43)
Avg Score : 27 - 21 (28 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 4 (#17)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NCST Players
CLEM Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

NC State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	NC State vs Western Carolina	-32.5	60.5	W 38 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/7	NC State vs Tennessee	+10.0	60.5	L 10 - 51	O	N
Sat 9/14	NC State vs Louisiana Tech	-20.5	47.5	W 30 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/21	NC State at Clemson	+17.0	44.0	L 35 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/28	NC State vs Northern Illinois	-7.0	46.0	W 24 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/5	NC State vs Wake Forest	-4.0	52.5	L 30 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/12	NC State vs Syracuse	+1.0	51.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/19	NC State at California	+9.5	46.0	W 24 - 23	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	NC State vs Stanford	-10.0	46.5	W 59 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/9	NC State vs Duke	-3.5	51.5	L 19 - 29	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/21	NC State at Georgia Tech	+7.5	51.5	L 29 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/30	NC State at North Carolina	+2.5	54.5	W 35 - 30	O	Y
Sat 12/28	NC State vs East Carolina	-7.5	61.5	L 21 - 26	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for NC State's Schedule

Clemson's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Clemson vs Georgia	+10.5	49.0	L 3 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/7	Clemson vs App State	-13.5	53.5	W 66 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Clemson vs NC State	-17.0	44.0	W 59 - 35	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Clemson vs Stanford	-24.0	58.0	W 40 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Clemson at Florida State	-16.5	47.0	W 29 - 13	U	N
Sat 10/12	Clemson at Wake Forest	-21.0	63.0	W 49 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Clemson vs Virginia	-20.0	57.5	W 48 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Clemson vs Louisville	-11.0	62.5	L 21 - 33	U	N
Sat 11/9	Clemson at Virginia Tech	-6.5	54.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Clemson at Pittsburgh	-12.0	52.0	W 24 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/23	Clemson vs The Citadel	-49.5	58.5	W 51 - 14	O	N
Sat 11/30	Clemson vs South Carolina	-2.5	48.5	L 14 - 17	U	N
Sat 12/7	Clemson vs SMU	+2.5	56.5	W 34 - 31	O	Y
Sat 12/21	Clemson at Texas	+13.5	49.5	L 24 - 38	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST	#89 (.15)	40% (100)	30.2	40% (96)	3.11 (68)	157	39% (96)	194	4.11 (47)	#16 (.1)	39% (34)	27.2	39% (34)	40% (40)	3.77 (66)	46.3	1.2	1.9
CLEM	#87 (.16)	45% (38)	27.2	47% (25)	3.22 (47)	174	43% (56)	229	3.62 (90)	#9 (.07)	33% (2)	20.5	35% (10)	32% (2)	4.04 (91)	42.2	1.7	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
CLEM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Offense	13	30.2	23	39.5%	4.11	1.2	19	350	157	194	4.3	52%	48%	40%	39%	18%	.15
CLEM Defense	13	20.5	24	33%	4.04	2	-	-	-	-	-	46%	54%	35%	32%	22%	.07

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Defense	13	27.2	39.8	38.8%	3.77	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	44%	54%	39%	40%	19%	.1
CLEM Offense	13	27.2	28	45%	3.62	1.7	23	403	174	229	4.3	49%	51%	47%	43%	16%	.16

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
NC State	13	32:27	18.5	40%	60%	5.8	46.3	1.2	1.9	5.5	2.5	3	30.1
Clemson	13	33:04	23.1	40%	52%	4.9	42.2	1.7	2	6.5	2.3	4	32.3

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Offense	13	52% (52)	40% (96)	36.8	156.6	4.3	19 (69)	.13 (83)	3.11 (68)	80% (20)	12% (106)	0.93 (100)
CLEM Defense	13	46% (19)	35% (10)	-	-	-	-	.13 (62)	2.9 (33)	83% (117)	13% (10)	1.22 (128)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Defense	13	44% (11)	39% (34)	-	-	-	-	.12 (55)	2.88 (31)	66% (27)	11% (32)	1.07 (103)
CLEM Offense	13	49% (77)	47% (25)	40.2	174.3	4.3	24 (41)	.17 (55)	3.22 (47)	79% (25)	9% (55)	0.91 (106)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Offense	13	48% (80)	39% (96)	17.2	29.2	193.8	6.7	11.3	19 (78)	12 (85)	.2 (95)	1.6 (67)	34% (102)	27% (101)	.27 (90)	6% (72)	2 (92)
CLEM Defense	13	54% (116)	32% (2)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (15)	.05 (3)	1.6 (51)	40% (1)	23% (2)	.13 (4)	9% (1)	1.9 (17)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Defense	13	54% (122)	40% (40)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.14 (15)	1.5 (28)	36% (17)	29% (50)	.2 (19)	7% (25)	1.9 (16)
CLEM Offense	13	51% (53)	43% (56)	23.2	36.5	228.6	6.3	9.8	20 (70)	9 (40)	.16 (104)	1.3 (133)	29% (20)	29% (85)	.18 (109)	6% (85)	1.9 (117)

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: -0.50 #66
NC State's Offense Rating: 22.82 #43
NC State's Defense Rating: 12.12 #89
2024 Talent Rating: 393.00 #36
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #33
NC State's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
NC State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #56
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #68

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: -0.50 Clemson: 16.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 3.9 Clemson: 13.3

Clemson's Power Ratings
Clemson's Power Rating: 16.1 #17
Clemson's Offense Rating: 25.96 #15
Clemson's Defense Rating: 7.50 #47
2024 Talent Rating: 574.00 #7
Blue Chip Ratio: 58 #6
Clemson's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 4.0
Clemson's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.3 #22
Clemson's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.4 #16
Clemson's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

NC State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.8

NC State's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Clemson 32
NC State 17

Projected Total Points: 49

Clemson Scoring
Offense: 27.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 28
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 24

Clemson's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/21	Clemson	59	NC State	35	Clemson -17	Clemson	44.0	Over
2023	10/28	NC State	24	Clemson	17	Clemson -9.5	NC State	44.5	Under
2022	10/01	Clemson	30	NC State	20	Clemson -6.5	Clemson	46.0	Over
2021	09/25	NC State	27	Clemson	21	Clemson -10.5	NC State	46.5	Over
2019	11/09	NC State	10	Clemson	55	Clemson -34	Clemson	54.5	Over
2018	10/20	Clemson	41	NC State	7	Clemson -17.5	Clemson	58.0	Under
2017	11/04	NC State	31	Clemson	38	Clemson -9.5	NC State	51.0	Over
2016	10/15	Clemson	24	NC State	17	Clemson -17	NC State	60.0	Under
2015	10/31	NC State	41	Clemson	56	Clemson -9.5	Clemson	50.5	Over
2014	10/04	Clemson	41	NC State	0	Clemson -14	Clemson	0
2013	09/19	NC State	14	Clemson	26	Clemson -13	NC State	0
2012	11/17	Clemson	62	NC State	48
2011	11/19	NC State	37	Clemson	13
2010	11/06	Clemson	14	NC State	13
2009	11/14	NC State	23	Clemson	43
2008	09/13	Clemson	27	NC State	9
2007	09/22	NC State	20	Clemson	42
2006	11/11	Clemson	20	NC State	14
2005	10/13	NC State	10	Clemson	31
2004	10/30	Clemson	26	NC State	20
2003	10/16	NC State	17	Clemson	15
2002	10/24	Clemson	6	NC State	38
2001	10/13	NC State	37	Clemson	45
2000	10/06	Clemson	34	NC State	27

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Clemson	19	6	6 Overs
NC State	5	5	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 9	8 - 3	4 - 1	4 - 2
Road Teams	9 - 15	3 - 8	2 - 4	1 - 4

(#66) NCST at (#17) CLEM

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NCST	CLEM
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#66	#17
SP+SP+	#56	#22
Perf GradeGrade	#51	#32
OffenseOff	#58	#37
DefenseDef	#49	#33
Spec TeamsST	#94	#38
TalentTal	#36	#7
Blue ChipsBC%	#33	#6

NC State Notes(11/25) Rgame mauled GT, but 3 Bailey INTs, bad Def
(11/13) Off abysmal (< 3 ypc) vs Duke, Pass D torched
(10/23) McCall carted off in WF game. Retired
(10/13) Pass D torched by Cuse. QB Bailey much better
(10/6) Team melted late vs Wake (L). Def is awful
(9/28) Off awful (171 yds) vs N Ill. Forced 4 TOs to W
(9/21) 110 pts allowed to Tenn/Clem. Shockingly bad
(9/18) OL disappointing, portals not as good, injuries
(9/17) McCall hurt, Fr CJ Bailey start at QB vs Clemson
(9/15) Off really bad esp Red Zone. McCall hurt vs LT
(9/8) Off disaster, Run D horrific. Did not belong w/ Tenn
(9/1) Close w/ W Car, gave up 9 TFLs, McCall good
NC State Injury Report

Clemson Injury Report

NC State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	NCST Off	CLEM Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#58	#33
SuccessSuc	#100	#2
ExplosiveExp	#97	#115
PPAPPA	#89	#9
PowerPwr	#43	#47
SP+SP+	#47	#26
Pts POPPO	#47	#91
HavocHav	#97	#3

NC State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	NCST Off	CLEM Def
Run GameRun	#110	#43
Run SuccessRSuc	#96	#10
Run ExplRExp	#100	#128
PPAExp	#83	#62
Run BlockR Blk	#24	-
OL YdsOLY	#68	#33
Stuff RateStuff	#65	#92
TackleTak	-	#93

NC State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	NCST Off	CLEM Def
Pass GamePass	#40	#44
Pass SuccessPSuc	#96	#2
Pass ExplPExl	#67	#51
PPAExp	#95	#3
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#10	#40
F7 HavocF7	#106	#10
DB HavocDB	#72	#1

Clemson on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	CLEM Off	NCST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#37	#49
SuccessSuc	#38	#34
ExplosiveExp	#132	#72
PPAPPA	#87	#16
PowerPwr	#15	#89
SP+SP+	#16	#68
Pts POPPO	#90	#66
HavocHav	#64	#22

Clemson Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	CLEM Off	NCST Def
Run GameRun	#42	#53
Run SuccessRSuc	#25	#34
Run ExplRExp	#106	#103
PPAExp	#55	#55
Run BlockR Blk	#62	-
OL YdsOLY	#47	#31
Stuff RateStuff	#17	#23
TackleTak	-	#41

Clemson Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	CLEM Off	NCST Def
Pass GamePass	#10	#54
Pass SuccessPSuc	#56	#40
Pass ExplPExl	#133	#28
PPAExp	#104	#15
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#59	#57
F7 HavocF7	#55	#32
DB HavocDB	#85	#25

Program Comparison
CLEM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'24 Profile: Remains Top 25 Contenders

NCST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Clemson -17.0 (44.0)
Clemson won vs NC State this year (59-35)

Previous Matchups
Clemson beat NC State in 2024 (59-35)
NC State beat Clemson in 2023 (24-17)

NCST's OC Robert Anae (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
CJ Bailey	196	302	65%	2412	17	10	8.0
Grayson McCall (Tr)	53	80	66%	518	3	2	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Daylan Smothers	89	571	6	6.4	53
Jordan Waters (Tr)	95	470	4	4.9	94
Kendrick Raphael	78	425	3	5.4	40
CJ Bailey	99	279	5	2.8	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Justin Joly (Tr)	43	661	4	15.4	40
Noah Rogers (Tr)	35	478	1	13.7	75
Kevin Concepcion	53	459	6	8.7	42
Wesley Grimes (Tr)	24	319	1	13.3	30

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC Tony Gibson (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sean Brown	95	9	3	13	1
Donovan Kaufman (Tr)	74	4	1	6	4
Devon Betty	61	9	2	6	2
Aydan White	59	0	0	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davin Vann	41	14	7	2	2
Travali Price	37	9	4	3	0
Sean Brown	95	9	3	13	1
Devon Betty	61	9	2	6	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bishop Fitzgerald	55	7	0	2	8
Devon Marshall (Tr)	33	1	0	0	7
Tamarcus Cooley (Tr)	39	3	1	2	6

CLEM's OC Garrett Riley (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cade Klubnik	308	486	63%	3639	36	6	7.5
Christopher Vizzina	19	34	56%	190	0	0	5.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Phil Mafah	216	1115	8	5.2	83
Cade Klubnik	119	462	7	3.9	55
Jay Haynes	43	295	3	6.9	70
Keith Adams Jr.	30	122	1	4.1	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Antonio Williams	74	902	11	12.2	57
Bryant Wesco Jr.	41	708	5	17.3	76
T.J. Moore	45	651	5	14.5	41
Jake Briningstool	49	530	7	10.8	41

View Clemson's Full Roster

CLEM's DC Mickey Conn (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Wade Woodaz	75	9	3	9	4
Barrett Carter	74	10	4	7	6
R.J. Mickens	68	6	0	2	7
Sammy Brown	66	12	5	2	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
T.J. Parker	50	17	11	5	1
Sammy Brown	66	12	5	2	2
Barrett Carter	74	10	4	7	6
Peter Woods	26	7	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Avieon Terrell	49	5	1	0	11
R.J. Mickens	68	6	0	2	7
Barrett Carter	74	10	4	7	6