Stanford at NC State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 2nd 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
NC State -10 (46.5) (-375) Open: -10.5
NC State 59 - Stanford: 28 (ACC)

Cardinal (3 - 9) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Troy Taylor (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 23 - 34 (21 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NCST coming off BYE
STAN is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: NC State -10.5 (SP+ NCST -12)
Projected Score: STAN: 20 - NCST: 30 (50)
NCST Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
STAN Travel: 2390 miles, 3 hrs behind

Wolfpack (6 - 7) (4 - 8 - 1)
Coach Dave Doeren (81 - 58)
Avg Score : 29 - 30 (31 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
STAN Players
NCST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Stanford's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Stanford vs TCU	+8.0	58.5	L 27 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Stanford vs Cal Poly	-33.5	59.5	W 41 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 9/20	Stanford at Syracuse	+9.5	56.5	W 26 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Stanford at Clemson	+24.0	58.0	L 14 - 40	U	N
Sat 10/5	Stanford vs Virginia Tech	+9.5	50.0	L 7 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/12	Stanford at Notre Dame	+22.5	45.5	L 7 - 49	O	N
Sat 10/19	Stanford vs SMU	+16.5	52.5	L 10 - 40	U	N
Sat 10/26	Stanford vs Wake Forest	+3.0	53.0	L 24 - 27	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Stanford at NC State	+10.0	46.5	L 28 - 59	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Stanford vs Louisville	+21.0	57.5	W 38 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Stanford at California	+15.0	53.5	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Fri 11/29	Stanford at San José State	+2.5	54.5	L 31 - 34	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Stanford's Schedule

NC State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	NC State vs Western Carolina	-32.5	60.5	W 38 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/7	NC State vs Tennessee	+10.0	60.5	L 10 - 51	O	N
Sat 9/14	NC State vs Louisiana Tech	-20.5	47.5	W 30 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/21	NC State at Clemson	+17.0	44.0	L 35 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/28	NC State vs Northern Illinois	-7.0	46.0	W 24 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/5	NC State vs Wake Forest	-4.0	52.5	L 30 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/12	NC State vs Syracuse	+1.0	51.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/19	NC State at California	+9.5	46.0	W 24 - 23	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	NC State vs Stanford	-10.0	46.5	W 59 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/9	NC State vs Duke	-3.5	51.5	L 19 - 29	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/21	NC State at Georgia Tech	+7.5	51.5	L 29 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/30	NC State at North Carolina	+2.5	54.5	W 35 - 30	O	Y
Sat 12/28	NC State vs East Carolina	-7.5	61.5	L 21 - 26	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
STAN	#114 (.1)	40% (101)	22.8	41% (95)	2.72 (116)	134	39% (98)	191	3.67 (92)	#120 (.27)	47% (119)	33.7	45% (92)	48% (124)	4.53 (124)	49	1.8	1.3
NCST	#26 (.25)	45% (36)	28.5	44% (68)	3.24 (36)	130	47% (20)	215	3.97 (61)	#86 (.19)	41% (59)	30.2	39% (31)	43% (87)	3.78 (67)	45	1.7	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
STAN	#114 (.1)	40% (101)		41% (95)	2.72 (116)	134	39% (98)	191	3.67 (92)	#120 (.27)	47% (119)		45% (92)	48% (124)	4.53 (124)	49	1.8	1.3
NCST	#26 (.25)	45% (36)		44% (68)	3.24 (36)	130	47% (20)	215	3.97 (61)	#86 (.19)	41% (59)		39% (31)	43% (87)	3.78 (67)	45	1.7	1.4

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
STAN Offense	12	22.8	21.2	40.1%	3.67	1.8	19	325	134	191	3.7	50%	50%	41%	39%	22%	.1
NCST Defense	13	30.2	24.7	40.9%	3.78	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	39%	43%	20%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
STAN Defense	12	33.7	38.3	46.6%	4.53	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	43%	57%	45%	48%	14%	.27
NCST Offense	13	28.5	31	45.1%	3.97	1.7	19	345	130	215	4.4	47%	52%	44%	47%	19%	.25

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Stanford	12	31:41	18.5	35%	56%	5.4	49	1.8	1.3	5.3	2.1	2	28.5
NC State	13	29:10	18.6	37%	56%	4.8	45	1.7	1.4	6.2	1.8	2	28.9

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
STAN Offense	12	50% (71)	41% (95)	36.3	133.8	3.7	11 (116)	.08 (97)	2.72 (116)	66% (111)	15% (131)	1.01 (52)
NCST Defense	13	47% (33)	39% (31)	-	-	-	-	.2 (111)	3.07 (83)	76% (86)	12% (24)	1.28 (134)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
STAN Defense	12	43% (4)	45% (92)	-	-	-	-	.11 (62)	2.92 (53)	68% (39)	10% (58)	0.99 (70)
NCST Offense	13	47% (89)	44% (68)	29.6	130.3	4.4	21 (59)	.15 (56)	3.24 (36)	69% (92)	13% (127)	0.98 (59)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
STAN Offense	12	50% (64)	39% (98)	18.7	30.8	191.3	6.2	10.3	18 (68)	17 (127)	.13 (111)	1.5 (120)	32% (82)	26% (116)	.22 (106)	7% (102)	2.1 (29)
NCST Defense	13	53% (106)	43% (87)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.19 (47)	1.5 (22)	33% (49)	30% (65)	.33 (83)	8% (16)	2.3 (120)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
STAN Defense	12	57% (131)	48% (124)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.4 (125)	1.6 (69)	30% (96)	34% (113)	.33 (85)	4% (129)	2 (51)
NCST Offense	13	52% (48)	47% (20)	18.2	28.1	214.8	7.7	11.8	18 (68)	12 (85)	.36 (24)	1.6 (45)	30% (35)	36% (24)	.57 (5)	6% (83)	2.2 (19)

Stanford's Power Ratings
Stanford's Power Rating: -4.38 #79
Stanford's Offense Rating: 18.63 #80
Stanford's Defense Rating: 15.49 #112
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #35
Stanford's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Stanford's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2 #101
Stanford's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #90
Stanford's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.1 #112

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Stanford: -4.38 NC State: 4.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Stanford: -8.2 NC State: 3.9

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 4.2 #66
NC State's Offense Rating: 22.82 #43
NC State's Defense Rating: 12.12 #89
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #33
NC State's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
NC State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #56
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #68

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Stanford Scoring
Offense: 22.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.2
Defense: 33.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.3

Stanford's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
NC State 30
Stanford 20

Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
NC State 33
Stanford 17

Total Points: 50

Based on Entire Season
NC State 33
Stanford 25

Total Points: 58

NC State Scoring
Offense: 28.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 31
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.7

NC State's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/02	NC State	59	Stanford	28	NC State -10	NC State	46.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
NC State	1	1	1 Overs
Stanford	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#79) STAN at (#66) NCST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	STAN	NCST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#79	#66
SP+SP+	#101	#56
Perf GradeGrade	#112	#51
OffenseOff	#121	#58
DefenseDef	#106	#49
Spec TeamsST	#6	#94
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#35	#33

Stanford Notes(11/29) Def torched by SJSU, Daniels 3 Int, Rgame meh
(11/29) Taylor 6-18 in 2 years, but is Stan serious?
(11/23) Daniels awful vs Cal, Rgame bad. Rough L
(11/18) At this pt why is 4 star QB Brown not playing?
(11/18) QB Daniels torched L'ville, Rgame awful, D held on
(11/18) Mosley V emerging top WR. 13/168/3 TD vs L'ville
(10/21) QB Daniels inj in SMU game, looks out for Wake
(10/20) Lost 11 straight at home vs FBS into Wake game
(10/12) 3 straight routs, Off v limited, Def wilts eventually
(9/23) QB Daniels limited but mobile QB. Rgame better?
(8/31) Def looked improved vs TCU, opportunistic
(8/19) WR Ayomanor who abused T. Hunter back (1K yds)
Stanford Injury Report

NC State Notes(11/25) Rgame mauled GT, but 3 Bailey INTs, bad Def
(11/13) Off abysmal (< 3 ypc) vs Duke, Pass D torched
(10/23) McCall carted off in WF game. Retired
(10/13) Pass D torched by Cuse. QB Bailey much better
(10/6) Team melted late vs Wake (L). Def is awful
(9/28) Off awful (171 yds) vs N Ill. Forced 4 TOs to W
(9/21) 110 pts allowed to Tenn/Clem. Shockingly bad
(9/18) OL disappointing, portals not as good, injuries
(9/17) McCall hurt, Fr CJ Bailey start at QB vs Clemson
(9/15) Off really bad esp Red Zone. McCall hurt vs LT
(9/8) Off disaster, Run D horrific. Did not belong w/ Tenn
(9/1) Close w/ W Car, gave up 9 TFLs, McCall good
NC State Injury Report

Stanford on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	STAN Off	NCST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#121	#49
SuccessSuc	#101	#59
ExplosiveExp	#98	#113
PPAPPA	#114	#86
PowerPwr	#80	#89
SP+SP+	#90	#68
Pts POPPO	#92	#67
HavocHav	#132	#16

Stanford Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	STAN Off	NCST Def
Run GameRun	#127	#53
Run SuccessRSuc	#95	#31
Run ExplRExp	#52	#134
PPAExp	#97	#111
Run BlockR Blk	#108	-
OL YdsOLY	#116	#83
Stuff RateStuff	#127	#105
TackleTak	-	#41

Stanford Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	STAN Off	NCST Def
Pass GamePass	#119	#54
Pass SuccessPSuc	#98	#87
Pass ExplPExl	#120	#22
PPAExp	#111	#47
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#94	#57
F7 HavocF7	#131	#24
DB HavocDB	#102	#16

NC State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	NCST Off	STAN Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#58	#106
SuccessSuc	#36	#119
ExplosiveExp	#32	#103
PPAPPA	#26	#120
PowerPwr	#43	#112
SP+SP+	#47	#112
Pts POPPO	#61	#124
HavocHav	#122	#94

NC State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	NCST Off	STAN Def
Run GameRun	#110	#93
Run SuccessRSuc	#68	#92
Run ExplRExp	#59	#70
PPAExp	#56	#62
Run BlockR Blk	#24	-
OL YdsOLY	#36	#53
Stuff RateStuff	#37	#29
TackleTak	-	#98

NC State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	NCST Off	STAN Def
Pass GamePass	#40	#117
Pass SuccessPSuc	#20	#124
Pass ExplPExl	#45	#69
PPAExp	#24	#125
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#10	#53
F7 HavocF7	#127	#58
DB HavocDB	#83	#129

Program Comparison
NCST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

STAN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Carter-Finley Stadium
Conditions: Overcast
Temp: 70° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 10
NC State -10.0 (46.5)
NC State won vs Stanford this year (59-28)

Previous Matchups
NC State beat Stanford last year (59-28)

STAN's OC Troy Taylor (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ashton Daniels	170	271	63%	1700	10	12	6.3
Elijah Brown	28	48	58%	274	2	3	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ashton Daniels	148	669	3	4.5	67
Micah Ford	76	309	0	4.1	26
Chris Davis Jr.	54	288	0	5.3	47
Cole Tabb	27	130	0	4.8	39

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elic Ayomanor	63	831	6	13.2	60
Emmett Mosley V	48	525	6	10.9	62
Sam Roush	40	334	2	8.4	28
Ismael Cisse	26	241	2	9.3	25

View Stanford's Full Roster

STAN's DC Bobby April III (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gaethan Bernadel	86	6	1	2	1
Scotty Edwards	80	2	0	0	2
Tristan Sinclair	77	7	2	5	1
Mitch Leigber	54	4	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
David Bailey	31	8	6	8	0
Tevarua Tafiti	41	7	4	3	0
Tobin Phillips	16	5	4	1	0
Zach Buckey	11	6	3	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Collin Wright	45	3	5
Aaron Morris	32	0	4
Zahran Manley	12	0	3

NCST's OC Robert Anae (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
CJ Bailey	196	302	65%	2412	17	10	8.0
Grayson McCall (Tr)	53	80	66%	518	3	2	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Daylan Smothers	89	571	6	6.4	53
Jordan Waters (Tr)	95	470	4	4.9	94
Kendrick Raphael	78	425	3	5.4	40
CJ Bailey	99	279	5	2.8	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Justin Joly (Tr)	43	661	4	15.4	40
Noah Rogers (Tr)	35	478	1	13.7	75
Kevin Concepcion	53	459	6	8.7	42
Wesley Grimes (Tr)	24	319	1	13.3	30

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC Tony Gibson (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sean Brown	95	9	3	13	1
Donovan Kaufman (Tr)	74	4	1	6	4
Devon Betty	61	9	2	6	2
Aydan White	59	0	0	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davin Vann	41	14	7	2	2
Travali Price	37	9	4	3	0
Sean Brown	95	9	3	13	1
Devon Betty	61	9	2	6	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bishop Fitzgerald	55	7	0	2	8
Devon Marshall (Tr)	33	1	0	0	7
Tamarcus Cooley (Tr)	39	3	1	2	6