East Carolina at North Texas - 2024 Matchup Preview
East Carolina logo East Carolina Pirates at North Texas Mean GreenNorth Texas logo
Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (3:30 PM EST)
North Texas -2.5 (73.5) (-145)  Open: -3.0 | 73.0
East Carolina 40 - North Texas: 28  (American Athletic)

 
Pirates (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Blake Harrell (5 - 0)
Avg Score : 32 - 27 (29 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
ECU 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: East Carolina -3.5   (SP+ ECU -3.5)

Projected Score: ECU: 36 - UNT: 32 (68)
UNT Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
ECU Travel: 1139 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Mean Green (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Eric Morris (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 34 - 34 (33 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
East Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 East Carolina vs Norfolk State-31.551.5W 42 - 3UY
Sat 9/7 East Carolina at Old Dominion+1.553.5W 20 - 14UY
Sat 9/14 East Carolina vs App State-0.556.5L 19 - 21UN
Sat 9/21 East Carolina at Liberty+7.555.0L 24 - 35ON
Sat 9/28 East Carolina vs UTSA-2.053.5W 30 - 20UY
Sat 10/5 East Carolina at Charlotte-9.547.5L 24 - 55ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 East Carolina at Army+17.554.0L 28 - 45OY
Sat 10/26 East Carolina vs Temple-8.548.5W 56 - 34OY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/7 East Carolina vs Florida Atlantic-5.558.5W 49 - 14OY
Thu 11/14 East Carolina at Tulsa-16.063.5W 38 - 31ON
Sat 11/23 East Carolina at North Texas+2.573.5W 40 - 28UY
Fri 11/29 East Carolina vs Navy-2.554.0L 20 - 34UN
Sat 12/28 East Carolina vs NC State+7.561.5W 26 - 21UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2

Predictions for East Carolina's Schedule
North Texas's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 North Texas at South Alabama+6.061.5W 52 - 38OY
Sat 9/7 North Texas vs Stephen F. Austin-21.572.5W 35 - 20UN
Sat 9/14 North Texas at Texas Tech+10.570.5L 21 - 66ON
Sat 9/21 North Texas vs Wyoming-7.055.0W 44 - 17OY
Sat 9/28 North Texas vs Tulsa-7.065.5W 52 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 North Texas at Florida Atlantic-5.558.5W 41 - 37ON
Sat 10/19 North Texas at Memphis+10.567.5L 44 - 52OY
Sat 10/26 North Texas vs Tulane+7.570.5L 37 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 North Texas vs Army+6.568.0L 3 - 14UN
Fri 11/15 North Texas at UTSA+1.073.0L 27 - 48ON
Sat 11/23 North Texas vs East Carolina-2.573.5L 28 - 40UN
Sat 11/30 North Texas at Temple-10.563.5W 24 - 17UN
Fri 1/3 North Texas vs Texas State+15.567.5L 28 - 30UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ECU#49 (.22)43% (62)3244% (71)3.07 (57)14743% (54)2533.79 (83)#64 (.16)40% (40)27.337% (11)43% (86)3.85 (76)612.21.6
UNT#45 (.23)42% (70)33.540% (109)2.75 (111)15344% (39)2983.91 (69)#98 (.22)44% (98)34.247% (106)42% (79)4.03 (93)52.51.51.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ECU#49 (.22)43% (62)44% (71)3.07 (57)14743% (54)2533.79 (83)#64 (.16)40% (40)37% (11)43% (86)3.85 (76)612.21.6
UNT#45 (.23)42% (70)40% (109)2.75 (111)15344% (39)2983.91 (69)#98 (.22)44% (98)47% (106)42% (79)4.03 (93)52.51.51.1



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ECU Offense13322943.3%3.792.2204001472534.452%48%44%43%15%.22
UNT Defense1334.22644.3%4.031.1 - - - - - 54%46%47%42%11%.22
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ECU Defense1327.334.739.5%3.851.6 - - - - - 54%46%37%43%16%.16
UNT Offense1333.533.242.5%3.911.5224511532985.638%62%40%44%15%.23

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
East Carolina1323:0820.142%53%7.3612.21.66.51.3430.4
North Texas1325:0522.136%48%6.352.51.51.14.51.7128.4
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ECU Offense1352% (63)44% (71)33.2147.34.420 (67).17 (47)3.07 (57)79% (27)8% (42)1.02 (48)
UNT Defense1354% (105)47% (106) - - - - .19 (102)3.29 (111)75% (74)7% (128)0.96 (54)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ECU Defense1354% (109)37% (11) - - - - .03 (22)2.57 (14)57% (3)11% (48)1.02 (84)
UNT Offense1338% (129)40% (109)27.6153.25.622 (55).17 (44)2.75 (111)58% (128)9% (51)1.25 (4)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ECU Offense1348% (72)43% (54)18.530.7252.78.213.726 (26)21 (134).28 (54)1.7 (24)30% (37)34% (33).51 (8)7% (92)2.3 (7)
UNT Defense1346% (26)42% (79) - - - - - - 10 (66).29 (98)1.7 (94)31% (90)30% (72).31 (69)4% (128)2.1 (93)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ECU Defense1346% (28)43% (86) - - - - - - 13 (31).32 (105)1.7 (98)33% (51)35% (117).46 (122)5% (104)2.1 (78)
UNT Offense1362% (6)44% (39)25.239.82987.511.931 (6)12 (85).26 (64)1.6 (60)33% (88)34% (35).35 (64)6% (71)2 (93)

East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: -0.23 #65
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 20.65 #59
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 8.33 #56
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
East Carolina's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
East Carolina's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0 #73
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.5 #58
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #87

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
East Carolina: -0.23   North Texas: -4.3

SP+ Ratings Matchup
East Carolina: -1.0   North Texas: -4.5




North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: -4.3 #98
North Texas's Offense Rating: 19.35 #70
North Texas's Defense Rating: 14.51 #105
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
North Texas's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
North Texas's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.5 #89
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #27
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #121

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32 PPG
Offense on Road: 29
Defense: 27.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.7

East Carolina's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
East Carolina 36
North Texas 32


Total Points: 68

North Texas Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.2
Defense: 34.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

North Texas's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/23North Texas28East Carolina40East CarolinaNorth Texas -2.5East Carolina73.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Texas000 Overs
East Carolina111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#65) East Carolina Info
Power Rating: -0.23 #65
Offense Rating: 20.65 #59
Defense Rating: 8.33 #56
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0 #73
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.5 #58
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #87
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 43%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.79 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 40%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.85 PPO
Great Run Def Success 37%
Bad Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

East Carolina has won 3 straight
East Carolina has won 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 4 - 3 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

East Carolina Notes
(11/26) Interim HC Blake Harrell hired after 5-0 run
(11/25) 4 str W's under Harrell, Off mauled N. Texas
(11/8) Off rolling, 575+ yds, 343 pass/238 rush vs FAU
(10/27) Off had 56 pts in 3 Q's game after Houston fired
(10/20) Run D torched for 295 (5.3 ypc) vs Army
(10/20) HC Houston Fired after Army gm, DC Harrell Int
(10/8) Run D torched for 300+ (6 ypc) vs Char?
(10/8) Slipping after awful '23. Staff done? Quit watch
(9/28) Rgame awful but Garcia good in W over UTSA
(9/23) Have 14 TOs in 4 games (last), Garcia 9 Int

East Carolina Highlights
East Carolina offense is explosive (#31)
East Carolina has a good run defense (#44)
East Carolina Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#5)
East Carolina Defensive Line is very good (#15)

East Carolina Deficiencies
East Carolina has a bad TO Margin (#11)
East Carolina Commits a Lot of Penalties (#127)
East Carolina throws a Lot of Interceptions (#23)
East Carolina does not Sack the QB (#31)
East Carolina gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#91)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUNTECU
OverallOver#75#42
OffenseOff#79#41
DefenseDef#81#33
Special TeamsST#53#105
PassingPass#29#47
RushingRush#20#43
Run BlockRBLK#105#34
Pass BlockPBLK#73#57
Route RunningWR Rt#63#32
TacklingTkl#49#66
Run DefenseR Def#46#16
Pass Rush DefPRush#103#66
Coverage DefCov#89#60

Rematch from Week 13
North Texas -2.5 (73.5)
East Carolina won at North Texas this year (40-28)

Previous Matchups
East Carolina beat North Texas last year (40-28)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Apogee Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: ECU | UNT
Depth Chart: ECU | UNT
Rosters: ECU | UNT
(#98) North Texas Info
Power Rating: -4.3 #98
Offense Rating: 19.35 #70
Defense Rating: 14.51 #105
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.5 #89
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #27
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #121
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.91 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Good Pass Success 44%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.03 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

North Texas has lost 4 straight
North Texas has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 3 - 3 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

North Texas Notes
(11/25) 5 str L's, Def awful, R Def mauled. Bad vibes
(11/18) Def just abysmal (UTSA). Morris INTs, Rgame great
(11/17) DC Caponi after UTSA blowout
(10/20) Morris great, Rgame great, Def awful (Tulane L)
(10/12) QB Morris great, Rgame Ok in shootout W (F Atl)
(10/4) QB Morris been great, Rgame awful. Over Team
(9/1) Great W @ S Al, Morris 415, run game bad, Def bad
(8/21) Starting DB/S I. Young out for the season.
(8/13) Brutal def LY esp. vs run, Off has much to find
(7/30) QB Morris (TCU) out spring, 20 portals in 2 deep

North Texas Highlights
North Texas offense is explosive (#20)

North Texas Deficiencies
North Texas Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#72)
North Texas run game is really bad (#40)
North Texas Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
North Texas Does Not Stuff Runs (#82)
North Texas has a bad defensive line (#38)


  
East Carolina's OC John David Baker
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Katin Houser (Tr)14924561%200618118.2
Jake Garcia (Tr)10918160%14268127.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rahjai Harris2061166115.786
London Montgomery (Tr)7135925.148
Marlon Gunn6122433.720
Katin Houser (Tr)4917043.535
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Smith (Tr)41799619.564
Chase Sowell34678319.956
Winston Wright54556810.365
Yannick Smith25434317.452

View East Carolina's Full Roster
East Carolina's DC Blake Harrell
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Omar Rogers1056122
Zakye Barker8112211
Michael Edwards III759124
Ja'Marley Riddle634004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Morris316420
Samuel Dankah347312
J.D. Lampley255260
Ryheem Craig (Tr)496210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Brown-Murray401006
Michael Edwards III759124
Ja'Marley Riddle634004

North Texas's OC Jordan Davis
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chandler Morris (Tr)32250963%377431127.4
Drew Mestemaker304665%4622210.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Shane Porter9764856.779
Makenzie McGill78470106.075
Chandler Morris (Tr)6024244.049
Kiefer Sibley4420604.719
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
DT Sheffield (Tr)668221112.575
Damon Ward Jr.41755418.457
Blair Conwright40542713.696
Miles Coleman36378210.549

View North Texas's Full Roster
North Texas's DC Matt Caponi
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Smith10680122
Jayden Hill (Tr)863123
Jordan Brown794120
Evan Jackson591012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Breylon Charles296531
Roderick Brown296530
Chavez Brown498410
Ethan Wesloski575321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ridge Texada442007
Taylor Starling202004
Brian Nelson II532013