Florida Atlantic at East Carolina - 2024 Matchup Preview
Florida Atlantic logo Florida Atlantic Owls at East Carolina PiratesEast Carolina logo
Thursday, November 7th 2024 (8:00 PM EST)
East Carolina -5.5 (58.5) (-290)  Open: -7.5 | 55.5
East Carolina 49 - Florida Atlantic: 14  (American Athletic)

 
Owls (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Chad Lunsford (Int) (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 26 - 30 (23 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
ECU coming off BYE
Our Line: East Carolina -16.5   (SP+ ECU -12)

Projected Score: FAU: 21 - ECU: 37 (58)
ECU Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
FAU Travel: 657 miles
Pirates (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Blake Harrell (5 - 0)
Avg Score : 32 - 27 (36 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
Florida Atlantic's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30 Florida Atlantic at Michigan State+12.045.0L 10 - 16UY
Sat 9/7 Florida Atlantic vs Army-1.542.5L 7 - 24UN
Sat 9/14 Florida Atlantic vs Florida International-3.544.5W 38 - 20OY
Sat 9/21 Florida Atlantic at UConn+1.046.0L 14 - 48ON
Sat 9/28 Florida Atlantic vs Wagner-34.552.5W 41 - 10UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Florida Atlantic vs North Texas+5.558.5L 37 - 41OY
Sat 10/19 Florida Atlantic at UTSA+4.052.5L 24 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/1 Florida Atlantic vs South Florida+1.548.0L 21 - 44ON
Thu 11/7 Florida Atlantic at East Carolina+5.558.5L 14 - 49ON
Sat 11/16 Florida Atlantic at Temple+2.050.0L 15 - 18UN
Sat 11/23 Florida Atlantic vs Charlotte+3.049.5L 27 - 39ON
Sat 11/30 Florida Atlantic at Tulsa-2.557.5W 63 - 16OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 4, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida Atlantic's Schedule
East Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 East Carolina vs Norfolk State-31.551.5W 42 - 3UY
Sat 9/7 East Carolina at Old Dominion+1.553.5W 20 - 14UY
Sat 9/14 East Carolina vs App State-0.556.5L 19 - 21UN
Sat 9/21 East Carolina at Liberty+7.555.0L 24 - 35ON
Sat 9/28 East Carolina vs UTSA-2.053.5W 30 - 20UY
Sat 10/5 East Carolina at Charlotte-9.547.5L 24 - 55ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 East Carolina at Army+17.554.0L 28 - 45OY
Sat 10/26 East Carolina vs Temple-8.548.5W 56 - 34OY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/7 East Carolina vs Florida Atlantic-5.558.5W 49 - 14OY
Thu 11/14 East Carolina at Tulsa-16.063.5W 38 - 31ON
Sat 11/23 East Carolina at North Texas+2.573.5W 40 - 28UY
Fri 11/29 East Carolina vs Navy-2.554.0L 20 - 34UN
Sat 12/28 East Carolina vs NC State+7.561.5W 26 - 21UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2

Predictions for East Carolina's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FAU#108 (.12)39% (107)25.943% (73)3.33 (26)11537% (104)2163.72 (83)#77 (.19)43% (85)30.341% (51)46% (122)3.44 (39)33.31.41.5
ECU#132 (.02)33% (132)3235% (128)2.85 (111)11232% (130)1642.62 (129)#40 (.14)34% (6)27.330% (2)39% (37)2.84 (8)54.31.81.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FAU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ECU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FAU Offense1225.923.339.1%3.721.4183311152163.843%55%43%37%20%.12
ECU Defense1227.32134.3%2.841.3 - - - - - 51%48%30%39%20%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FAU Defense1230.330.843.2%3.441.5 - - - - - 51%48%41%46%15%.19
ECU Offense12323633.3%2.621.8152761121643.546%53%35%32%20%.02

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida Atlantic1227:2417.934%38%3.433.31.41.56.92.3331.7
East Carolina1228:5915.130%35%5.854.31.81.36.91.5230.6
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FAU Offense1243% (109)43% (73)30.8115.33.816 (89).16 (67)3.33 (26)72% (85)12% (113)1.01 (59)
ECU Defense1251% (88)30% (2) - - - - -.01 (13)2.53 (7)74% (76)13% (8)1.19 (124)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FAU Defense1251% (84)41% (51) - - - - .08 (30)3.26 (102)76% (92)11% (52)0.81 (7)
ECU Offense1246% (98)35% (128)32.2111.73.512 (116).03 (123)2.85 (111)71% (90)12% (108)0.97 (87)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FAU Offense1255% (27)37% (104)22.134.3215.56.39.819 (78)15 (116).16 (105)1.5 (106)34% (110)24% (125).11 (125)8% (125)2 (102)
ECU Defense1248% (55)39% (37) - - - - - - 6 (120).32 (100)1.8 (126)38% (6)33% (107).43 (116)6% (53)2.2 (98)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FAU Defense1248% (49)46% (122) - - - - - - 10 (67).36 (111)1.6 (57)34% (42)32% (97).34 (81)4% (125)1.9 (33)
ECU Offense1253% (37)32% (130)17.332.3163.95.19.57 (129)14 (107).05 (129)1.5 (92)38% (133)22% (129).11 (127)8% (116)2.1 (55)

Florida Atlantic's Power Ratings
Florida Atlantic's Power Rating: -16.03 #114
Florida Atlantic's Offense Rating: 14.76 #109
Florida Atlantic's Defense Rating: 11.20 #82
2024 Talent Rating: 530.00 #90
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Florida Atlantic's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Florida Atlantic's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.7 #113
Florida Atlantic's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #109
Florida Atlantic's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.1 #104

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482.57
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida Atlantic: -16.03   East Carolina: 1.885

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida Atlantic: -12.7   East Carolina: -1.0




East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: 1.885 #65
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 20.65 #59
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 8.33 #56
2024 Talent Rating: 590.00 #78
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
East Carolina's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
East Carolina's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0 #73
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.5 #58
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #87

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482.57
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Florida Atlantic Scoring
Offense: 25.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.3
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.8

Florida Atlantic's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
East Carolina 37
Florida Atlantic 21


Projected Total Points: 58
East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 27.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

East Carolina's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/07East Carolina49Florida Atlantic14East CarolinaEast Carolina -5.5East Carolina58.5Over
202311/11Florida Atlantic7East Carolina22East CarolinaFlorida Atlantic -7.5East Carolina44.5Under
201309/05East Carolina31Florida Atlantic13East CarolinaEast Carolina -15East Carolina0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
East Carolina331 Overs
Florida Atlantic001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 12 - 12 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 21 - 20 - 01 - 2

(#114) Florida Atlantic Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -16.03 #114
Offense Rating: 14.76 #109
Defense Rating: 11.20 #82
Overall SP+ Rating: -12.7 #113
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #109
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.1 #104
Talent Rating: 530.00 #90
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.19 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.72 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Florida Atlantic Notes
(12/5) Hired new HC Tex Tech OC Zach Kittley
(11/18) HC Herman fired, ST's Lunsford taking over
(11/18) Off is lost. Herman fired after Temple L. DC back?
(11/18) DC Bellantoni back after Herman fired?
(11/10) Fired DC Bellantoni and OL Warinner
(11/8) Killed by ECU, Def mauled, QB Weisman good find?
(11/8) QB Fancher inj (ECU). BU Weisman looks good
(11/4) Def mauled by USF, 300+ rush, 7.4 ypc, Off OK, flags
(10/20) Def bad vs UTSA, 480+ yds. Run heavy but 3 ypc?
(10/12) Fancher/Rgame good, Def torched shootout L N.T.
Florida Atlantic     Ratings Matchup     East Carolina
Power #114
#65
Off #109
#59
Def #82
#56
Talent #90
#78
SP+ #113
#73
SP+ Off #109
#58
SP+ Def #104
#87

Rematch from Week 11
East Carolina -5.5 (58.5)
East Carolina won vs Florida Atlantic this year (49-14)

Previous Matchups
East Carolina beat Florida Atlantic last year (49-14)
East Carolina beat Florida Atlantic in 2023 (22-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 70° - Wind: 6 mph


Team Information
Injuries: FAU | ECU
Depth Chart: FAU | ECU
Rosters: FAU | ECU
(#65) East Carolina Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 1.885 #65
Offense Rating: 20.65 #59
Defense Rating: 8.33 #56
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0 #73
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.5 #58
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #87
Talent Rating: 590.00 #78
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 43%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.79 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 40%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.85 PPO
Great Run Def Success 37%
Bad Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


East Carolina Notes
(11/26) Interim HC Blake Harrell hired after 5-0 run
(11/25) 4 str W's under Harrell, Off mauled N. Texas
(11/8) Off rolling, 575+ yds, 343 pass/238 rush vs FAU
(10/27) Off had 56 pts in 3 Q's game after Houston fired
(10/20) Run D torched for 295 (5.3 ypc) vs Army
(10/20) HC Houston Fired after Army gm, DC Harrell Int
(10/8) Run D torched for 300+ (6 ypc) vs Char?
(10/8) Slipping after awful '23. Staff done? Quit watch
(9/28) Rgame awful but Garcia good in W over UTSA
(9/23) Have 14 TOs in 4 games (last), Garcia 9 Int


  
Florida Atlantic's OC Charlie Frye
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cam Fancher (Tr)12621259%1528667.2
Kasen Weisman (Tr)397353%416235.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
CJ Campbell165860115.258
Zuberi Mobley9147145.272
Cam Fancher (Tr)9936533.776
Xavier Terrell14261318.693
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Omari Hayes39590315.171
CJ Campbell40466311.778
Jabari Smith17296317.476
Marlyn Johnson (Tr)1716909.922

View Florida Atlantic's Full Roster
Florida Atlantic's DC Roc Bellantoni
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
C.J. Heard741001
Jackson Ambush686202
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)483014
Kahzir Brown (Tr)422017
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacob Merrifield154320
Jackson Ambush686202
Devonta Davis (Tr)296210
Chisom Ifeanyi (Tr)214240
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kahzir Brown (Tr)422017
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)483014
Wendol Philord416104

East Carolina's OC John David Baker
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Katin Houser (Tr)14924561%200618118.2
Jake Garcia (Tr)10918160%14268127.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
London Montgomery (Tr)7135925.148
Marlon Gunn6122433.720
Katin Houser (Tr)4917043.535
Javious Bond149216.618
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Smith (Tr)41799619.564
Chase Sowell34678319.956
Winston Wright54556810.365
Yannick Smith25434317.452

View East Carolina's Full Roster
East Carolina's DC Blake Harrell
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zakye Barker8112211
Ja'Marley Riddle634004
Gavin Gibson (Tr)527013
Ryheem Craig (Tr)496210
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Samuel Dankah347312
Ryheem Craig (Tr)496210
J.D. Lampley255260
Zakye Barker8112211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Brown-Murray401006
Ja'Marley Riddle634004
Gavin Gibson (Tr)527013