East Carolina at Tulsa - 2024 Matchup Preview
East Carolina logo   East Carolina Pirates at Tulsa Golden Hurricane  Tulsa logo
Thursday, November 14th 2024 (7:30 PM EST)
East Carolina -16 (63.5) (-800)  Open: -11.0
East Carolina 38 - Tulsa: 31  (American Athletic)

 
Pirates (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Houston (24 - 34)
Avg Score : 33 - 20 (31 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TLSA coming off BYE
Our Line: East Carolina -20.5  (SP+ ECU -19.5)

Projected Score: ECU: 39 - TLSA: 19 (58)
ECU Win prob: 88% | Cover: 54%
ECU Travel: 1039 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Golden Hurricane (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Kevin Wilson (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (27 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
East Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 East Carolina vs Norfolk State-31.551.5W 42 - 3UY
Sat 9/7 East Carolina at Old Dominion+1.553.5W 20 - 14UY
Sat 9/14 East Carolina vs App State-0.556.5L 19 - 21UN
Sat 9/21 East Carolina at Liberty+7.555.0L 24 - 35ON
Sat 9/28 East Carolina vs UTSA-2.053.5W 30 - 20UY
Sat 10/5 East Carolina at Charlotte-9.547.5L 24 - 55ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 East Carolina at Army+17.554.0L 28 - 45OY
Sat 10/26 East Carolina vs Temple-8.548.5W 56 - 34OY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/7 East Carolina vs Florida Atlantic-5.558.5W 49 - 14OY
Thu 11/14 East Carolina at Tulsa-16.063.5W 38 - 31ON
Sat 11/23 East Carolina at North Texas+2.573.5W 40 - 28UY
Fri 11/29 East Carolina vs Navy-2.554.0L 20 - 34UN
Sat 12/28 East Carolina vs NC State+7.561.5W 26 - 21UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for East Carolina's Schedule
Tulsa's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Tulsa vs Northwestern State-37.555.5W 62 - 28ON
Sat 9/7 Tulsa at Arkansas State+9.565.5L 24 - 28UY
Sat 9/14 Tulsa vs Oklahoma State+17.562.5L 10 - 45UN
Sat 9/21 Tulsa at Louisiana Tech+3.056.5W 23 - 20UY
Sat 9/28 Tulsa at North Texas+7.065.5L 20 - 52ON
Sat 10/5 Tulsa vs Army+13.550.5L 7 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Tulsa at Temple+3.551.5L 10 - 20UN
Sat 10/26 Tulsa vs UTSA+9.552.5W 46 - 45OY
Sat 11/2 Tulsa at UAB+2.557.5L 21 - 59ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/14 Tulsa vs East Carolina+16.063.5L 31 - 38OY
Sat 11/23 Tulsa at South Florida+17.560.0L 30 - 63ON
Sat 11/30 Tulsa vs Florida Atlantic+2.557.5L 16 - 63ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Tulsa's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ECU#132 (.02)33% (132)32.735% (128)2.85 (111)11232% (130)1642.62 (129)#40 (.14)34% (6)20.130% (2)39% (37)2.84 (8)54.31.81.3
TLSA#77 (.18)41% (83)23.240% (99)3.16 (59)18144% (50)2054.23 (34)#120 (.29)44% (96)28.943% (67)46% (121)3.95 (82)43.321.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ECU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TLSA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ECU Offense1232.730.833.3%2.621.8152761121643.546%53%35%32%20%.02
TLSA Defense1228.927.243.9%3.951.7 - - - - - 47%51%43%46%14%.29
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ECU Defense1220.120.834.3%2.841.3 - - - - - 51%48%30%39%20%.14
TLSA Offense1223.227.341%4.232203861812054.157%41%40%44%17%.18

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
East Carolina1228:5915.130%35%5.854.31.81.36.91.5230.6
Tulsa1229:4219.845%44%5.143.321.75.41.8028.1
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ECU Offense1246% (98)35% (128)32.2111.73.512 (116).03 (123)2.85 (111)71% (90)12% (108)0.97 (87)
TLSA Defense1247% (37)43% (67) - - - - .21 (107)3.18 (89)67% (30)10% (74)1.13 (115)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ECU Defense1251% (88)30% (2) - - - - -.01 (13)2.53 (7)74% (76)13% (8)1.19 (124)
TLSA Offense1257% (16)40% (99)43.9180.94.113 (108).1 (96)3.16 (59)79% (27)11% (87)0.88 (120)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ECU Offense1253% (37)32% (130)17.332.3163.95.19.57 (129)14 (107).05 (129)1.5 (92)38% (133)22% (129).11 (127)8% (116)2.1 (55)
TLSA Defense1251% (89)46% (121) - - - - - - 10 (67).43 (124)1.7 (100)30% (103)29% (43).41 (111)5% (113)2.6 (133)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ECU Defense1248% (55)39% (37) - - - - - - 6 (120).32 (100)1.8 (126)38% (6)33% (107).43 (116)6% (53)2.2 (98)
TLSA Offense1241% (118)44% (50)15.827.8204.77.412.920 (70)19 (131).36 (37)1.8 (13)34% (95)32% (57).33 (68)6% (73)2.1 (66)

East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: -0.23  #65
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 20.65  #59
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 8.33  #56
2024 Talent Rating: 292.00  #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #102
East Carolina's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
East Carolina's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0  #73
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.5  #58
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.7  #87

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 238.57
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
East Carolina: -0.23   Tulsa: -20.915

SP+ Ratings Matchup
East Carolina: -1.0   Tulsa: -20.6




Tulsa's Power Ratings
Tulsa's Power Rating: -20.915  #132
Tulsa's Offense Rating: 11.18  #125
Tulsa's Defense Rating: 19.20  #127
2024 Talent Rating: 253.00  #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #82
Tulsa's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Tulsa's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -20.6  #128
Tulsa's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.2  #105
Tulsa's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.3  #129

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 238.57
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4


East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.8
Defense: 20.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8

East Carolina's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
East Carolina 39
Tulsa 19


Projected Total Points: 58
Tulsa Scoring
Offense: 23.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.3
Defense: 28.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Tulsa's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/16East Carolina41Tulsa27East Carolina -16.5Tulsa54.5Over
202411/14Tulsa31East Carolina38East Carolina -16Tulsa63.5Over
202311/25East Carolina27Tulsa29East Carolina -4.5Tulsa44.5Over
202010/30Tulsa34East Carolina30Tulsa -17East Carolina59.5Over
201911/30East Carolina24Tulsa49Tulsa -7Tulsa64.0Over
201611/05Tulsa45East Carolina24Tulsa -10Tulsa76.5Under
201510/17East Carolina30Tulsa17East Carolina -11East Carolina77.0Under
201411/28Tulsa32East Carolina49East Carolina -17.5Tulsa0
201311/09East Carolina58Tulsa24East Carolina -14East Carolina0
201009/05East Carolina51Tulsa49
200911/15Tulsa17East Carolina44
200812/06Tulsa24East Carolina27
200610/14East Carolina10Tulsa31
200511/12Tulsa45East Carolina13
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Tulsa665 Overs
East Carolina832 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 75 - 43 - 32 - 1
Road Teams7 - 74 - 51 - 23 - 3

(#65) ECU at (#132) TLSA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatECUTLSA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #65 #132
SP+SP+ #73 #128
Perf GradeGrade #58 #133
OffenseOff #47 #118
DefenseDef #44 #133
Spec TeamsST #128 #119
TalentTal #77 #94
Blue ChipsBC% #102 #82
East Carolina Notes
(11/29) Snapped vs Navy, Def abysmal, Rgame awful
(11/26) Interim HC Blake Harrell hired after 5-0 run
(11/25) 4 str W's under Harrell, Off mauled N. Texas
(11/8) Off rolling, 575+ yds, 343 pass/238 rush vs FAU
(10/27) Off had 56 pts in 3 Q's game after Houston fired
(10/20) Run D torched for 295 (5.3 ypc) vs Army
(10/20) HC Houston Fired after Army gm, DC Harrell Int
(10/8) Run D torched for 300+ (6 ypc) vs Char?
(10/8) Slipping after awful '23. Staff done? Quit watch
(9/28) Rgame awful but Garcia good in W over UTSA
(9/23) Have 14 TOs in 4 games (last), Garcia 9 Int
(9/23) Blew 17-0 (Lib), Garcia meh, Rgame meh
East Carolina Injury Report
Tulsa Notes
(12/8) Hired HC Tre Lamb (ETSU/Gar Web)
(11/24) HC Wilson fired, WR coach Ryan Switzer in
(11/4) Wilson is 3-10 in AAC play, 7-14 overall
(11/3) Killed by UAB? Def torched 400+ pass? Run awful
(10/28) Down 35-7, season saving comeback vs UTSA
(10/20) L to Temple after Bye? QB meh, Rgame abysmal
(10/20) Pass D torched by Temple for 300+, QBs awful
(10/20) Not sure what plan is or level of give a shit
(9/25) Even with LT, 13 flags killers, forced 3 TOs in OT W
(7/30) New QB Francis got PT LY, backups better upside
(7/30) Def was awful LY, returns little, need portal adds
(7/30) Is HC Wilson still a prick? OC is Spurrier Jr.
Tulsa Injury Report
East Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
ECU OffTLSA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #47 #133
SuccessSuc #132 #96
ExplosiveExp #89 #123
PPAPPA #132 #120
PowerPwr #59 #127
SP+SP+ #58 #129
Pts POPPO #129 #82
HavocHav #116 #108
East Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
ECU OffTLSA Def
Run GameRun #60 #108
Run SuccessRSuc #128 #67
Run ExplRExp #87 #115
PPAExp #123 #107
Run BlockR Blk #43 -
OL YdsOLY #111 #89
Stuff RateStuff #74 #69
TackleTak -  #130
East Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
ECU OffTLSA Def
Pass GamePass #59 #136
Pass SuccessPSuc #130 #121
Pass ExplPExl #92 #100
PPAExp #129 #124
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #65 #44
F7 HavocF7 #108 #74
DB HavocDB #116 #113
Tulsa on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatTLSA OffECU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #118 #44
SuccessSuc #83 #6
ExplosiveExp #77 #130
PPAPPA #77 #40
PowerPwr #125 #56
SP+SP+ #105 #87
Pts POPPO #34 #8
HavocHav #87 #11
Tulsa Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TLSA OffECU Def
Run GameRun #105 #20
Run SuccessRSuc #99 #2
Run ExplRExp #120 #124
PPAExp #96 #13
Run BlockR Blk #122 -
OL YdsOLY #59 #7
Stuff RateStuff #22 #12
TackleTak -  #76
Tulsa Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatTLSA OffECU Def
Pass GamePass #112 #74
Pass SuccessPSuc #50 #37
Pass ExplPExl #13 #126
PPAExp #37 #100
Pass Block/RushP Blk #121 #75
F7 HavocF7 #87 #8
DB HavocDB #73 #53
Program Comparison
TLSA 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

ECU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in at H. A. Chapman Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 12
East Carolina 16.0 (63.5)
East Carolina won at Tulsa this year (38-31)

Previous Matchups
East Carolina beat Tulsa last year (41-27)
East Carolina beat Tulsa in 2024 (38-31)
Tulsa beat East Carolina in 2023 (29-27)

  
ECU's OC John David Baker (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Katin Houser (Tr)14924561%200618118.2
Jake Garcia (Tr)10918160%14268127.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rahjai Harris2061166115.786
London Montgomery (Tr)7135925.148
Marlon Gunn6122433.720
Katin Houser (Tr)4917043.535
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Smith (Tr)41799619.564
Chase Sowell34678319.956
Winston Wright54556810.365
Yannick Smith25434317.452

View East Carolina's Full Roster

ECU's DC Blake Harrell (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Omar Rogers1056122
Zakye Barker8112211
Michael Edwards III759124
Ja'Marley Riddle634004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Morris316420
Samuel Dankah347312
J.D. Lampley255260
Ryheem Craig (Tr)496210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Brown-Murray401006
Michael Edwards III759124
Ja'Marley Riddle634004

TLSA's OC Steve Spurrier Jr. (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kirk Francis14925359%1585966.3
Cooper Legas (Tr)8716254%11441267.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Watkins8740244.677
Viron Ellison Jr.6235315.732
Bill Jackson6731904.837
Lloyd Avant7625913.416
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kamdyn Benjamin70822611.774
Joseph Williams30588519.672
Luke Mcgary17231113.632
Zion Steptoe (Tr)15203013.534

View Tulsa's Full Roster

TLSA's DC Chris Polizzi (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Gavin Potter (Tr)7511140
Dayne Hodge601003
Malachi Jones490003
Zach Marcheselli (Tr)4710100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
R.J. Jackson354302
Owen Ostroski358240
Vontroy Malone255210
Myles Jackson (Tr)366210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keuan Parker200004
Buddha Garrett381003
Dayne Hodge601003