Navy at East Carolina - 2024 Matchup Preview

Navy Midshipmen at East Carolina Pirates

Friday, November 29th 2024 (12:00 PM EST)
East Carolina -2.5 (54.0) (-105) Open: -1.0 | 55.5
Navy 34 - East Carolina: 20 (American Athletic)

Midshipmen (10 - 3) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Brian Newberry (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (26 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NAVY coming off BYE
ECU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Navy -1 (SP+ NAVY -4.5)
Projected Score: NAVY: 28 - ECU: 27 (55)
ECU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
NAVY Travel: 239 miles

Pirates (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Houston (24 - 34)
Avg Score : 33 - 20 (36 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NAVY Players
ECU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Navy's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Navy vs Bucknell	-31.5	48.5	W 49 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/7	Navy vs Temple	-11.5	43.5	W 38 - 11	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Navy vs Memphis	+9.5	47.0	W 56 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Navy at UAB	-4.5	56.5	W 41 - 18	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Navy at Air Force	-10.0	37.0	W 34 - 7	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Navy vs Charlotte	-16.5	57.5	W 51 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Navy vs Notre Dame	+14.0	50.5	L 14 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/2	Navy at Rice	-12.5	49.0	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/9	Navy at South Florida	-4.5	59.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Navy vs Tulane	+7.5	49.0	L 0 - 35	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/29	Navy at East Carolina	+2.5	54.0	W 34 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 12/14	Navy vs Army	+6.0	39.5
Fri 12/27	Navy vs Oklahoma	-1.0	44.0	W 21 - 20	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Navy's Schedule

East Carolina's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	East Carolina vs Norfolk State	-31.5	51.5	W 42 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/7	East Carolina at Old Dominion	+1.5	53.5	W 20 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/14	East Carolina vs App State	-0.5	56.5	L 19 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/21	East Carolina at Liberty	+7.5	55.0	L 24 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/28	East Carolina vs UTSA	-2.0	53.5	W 30 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/5	East Carolina at Charlotte	-9.5	47.5	L 24 - 55	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	East Carolina at Army	+17.5	54.0	L 28 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/26	East Carolina vs Temple	-8.5	48.5	W 56 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/7	East Carolina vs Florida Atlantic	-5.5	58.5	W 49 - 14	O	Y
Thu 11/14	East Carolina at Tulsa	-16.0	63.5	W 38 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/23	East Carolina at North Texas	+2.5	73.5	W 40 - 28	U	Y
Fri 11/29	East Carolina vs Navy	-2.5	54.0	L 20 - 34	U	N
Sat 12/28	East Carolina vs NC State	+7.5	61.5	W 26 - 21	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NAVY	#121 (.07)	37% (117)	31.5	39% (111)	2.86 (108)	195	32% (131)	106	2.38 (133)	#45 (.15)	41% (51)	25	37% (23)	45% (114)	2.84 (7)	46	1	2
ECU	#132 (.02)	33% (132)	32.7	35% (128)	2.85 (111)	112	32% (130)	164	2.62 (129)	#40 (.14)	34% (6)	20.1	30% (2)	39% (37)	2.84 (8)	54.3	1.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NAVY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ECU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NAVY Offense	12	31.5	25.8	37.1%	2.38	1	15	300	195	106	4.3	71%	29%	39%	32%	14%	.07
ECU Defense	12	20.1	19.8	34.3%	2.84	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	30%	39%	20%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NAVY Defense	12	25	30.2	40.6%	2.84	2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	37%	45%	17%	.15
ECU Offense	12	32.7	36.2	33.3%	2.62	1.8	15	276	112	164	3.5	46%	53%	35%	32%	20%	.02

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Navy	12	31:15	14.5	29%	62%	5.7	46	1	2	5.2	2.3	1	32.4
East Carolina	12	28:59	15.1	30%	35%	5.8	54.3	1.8	1.3	6.9	1.5	2	30.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NAVY Offense	12	71% (3)	39% (111)	45.7	194.6	4.3	16 (89)	.07 (110)	2.86 (108)	72% (83)	12% (101)	1.02 (57)
ECU Defense	12	51% (88)	30% (2)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (13)	2.53 (7)	74% (76)	13% (8)	1.19 (124)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NAVY Defense	12	50% (67)	37% (23)	-	-	-	-	.02 (15)	2.87 (30)	67% (34)	11% (36)	0.86 (16)
ECU Offense	12	46% (98)	35% (128)	32.2	111.7	3.5	12 (116)	.03 (123)	2.85 (111)	71% (90)	12% (108)	0.97 (87)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NAVY Offense	12	29% (131)	32% (131)	8.5	16.6	105.7	6.4	12.4	10 (120)	5 (6)	.11 (121)	1.8 (15)	31% (61)	21% (132)	.06 (131)	2% (3)	2 (88)
ECU Defense	12	48% (55)	39% (37)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (120)	.32 (100)	1.8 (126)	38% (6)	33% (107)	.43 (116)	6% (53)	2.2 (98)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NAVY Defense	12	49% (65)	45% (114)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.33 (103)	1.6 (75)	31% (97)	28% (40)	.34 (83)	6% (88)	2.2 (113)
ECU Offense	12	53% (37)	32% (130)	17.3	32.3	163.9	5.1	9.5	7 (129)	14 (107)	.05 (129)	1.5 (92)	38% (133)	22% (129)	.11 (127)	8% (116)	2.1 (55)

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: 2.20 #53
Navy's Offense Rating: 24.12 #27
Navy's Defense Rating: 5.57 #31
2024 Talent Rating: 39.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Navy's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Navy's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5 #57
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #51
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #53

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 238.57
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Navy: 2.20 East Carolina: 1.885

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Navy: 3.5 East Carolina: -1.0

East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: 1.885 #65
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 20.65 #59
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 8.33 #56
2024 Talent Rating: 292.00 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
East Carolina's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
East Carolina's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0 #73
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.5 #58
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #87

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 238.57
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Navy's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Navy 28
East Carolina 27

Projected Total Points: 55

East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.2
Defense: 20.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.8

East Carolina's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/29	East Carolina	20	Navy	34	East Carolina -2.5	Navy	54.0	Push
2023	11/18	Navy	10	East Carolina	0	Navy -2.5	Navy	30.5	Under
2022	09/24	East Carolina	20	Navy	23	East Carolina -16.5	Navy	48.5	Under
2021	11/20	Navy	35	East Carolina	38	East Carolina -3.5	Navy	46.0	Over
2020	10/17	East Carolina	23	Navy	27	Navy -3	Navy	55.5	Under
2019	09/14	Navy	42	East Carolina	10	Navy -7.5	Navy	53.0	Under
2016	11/19	East Carolina	31	Navy	66	Navy -8	Navy	64.0	Over
2015	09/19	Navy	45	East Carolina	21	Navy -1.5	Navy	58.0	Over
2012	10/27	East Carolina	28	Navy	56
2011	10/22	Navy	35	East Carolina	38
2010	11/06	East Carolina	35	Navy	76
2006	09/02	Navy	28	East Carolina	23

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
East Carolina	2	0	3 Overs
Navy	10	8	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 8	4 - 4	3 - 2	1 - 2
Road Teams	8 - 4	4 - 4	2 - 1	2 - 3

(#53) NAVY at (#65) ECU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NAVY	ECU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#53	#65
SP+SP+	#57	#73
Perf GradeGrade	#20	#58
OffenseOff	#19	#47
DefenseDef	#30	#44
Spec TeamsST	#3	#128
TalentTal	#134	#77
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#102

Navy Notes(12/28) Beat OU in bowl, 225+ rushing. Great season
(12/14) Dominated Army, Rgame 275+, Def was perfect
(11/29) Backup QB Woodson torched ECU in finale
(11/29) Run Def great, held ECU to 4-15 on 3rd, 1-3 4th
(11/18) Off abysmal vs Tulane, can't play with quality opps
(11/3) Horvath playing hurt (thumb) not the same
(11/3) Sinking L (Rice), 2 TOs, Rgame was really bad
(10/28) 7.5 ppg via TOs even after the ND game (6 TOs)
(10/22) Def has a stop rate of 73% (#15) into ND game
(10/20) Even w/ Char but forced 5 TOs. Outrushed
(10/18) Run Def is atrocious & schedule gets harder now
(9/23) OC Cronic has been a revelation. Staff saver.
Navy Injury Report

East Carolina Notes(11/29) Snapped vs Navy, Def abysmal, Rgame awful
(11/26) Interim HC Blake Harrell hired after 5-0 run
(11/25) 4 str W's under Harrell, Off mauled N. Texas
(11/8) Off rolling, 575+ yds, 343 pass/238 rush vs FAU
(10/27) Off had 56 pts in 3 Q's game after Houston fired
(10/20) Run D torched for 295 (5.3 ypc) vs Army
(10/20) HC Houston Fired after Army gm, DC Harrell Int
(10/8) Run D torched for 300+ (6 ypc) vs Char?
(10/8) Slipping after awful '23. Staff done? Quit watch
(9/28) Rgame awful but Garcia good in W over UTSA
(9/23) Have 14 TOs in 4 games (last), Garcia 9 Int
(9/23) Blew 17-0 (Lib), Garcia meh, Rgame meh
East Carolina Injury Report

Navy on Offense

Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	ECU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#19	#44
SuccessSuc	#117	#6
ExplosiveExp	#111	#130
PPAPPA	#121	#40
PowerPwr	#27	#56
SP+SP+	#51	#87
Pts POPPO	#133	#8
HavocHav	#33	#11

Navy Run Game

Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	ECU Def
Run GameRun	#42	#20
Run SuccessRSuc	#111	#2
Run ExplRExp	#57	#124
PPAExp	#110	#13
Run BlockR Blk	#18	-
OL YdsOLY	#108	#7
Stuff RateStuff	#84	#12
TackleTak	-	#76

Navy Pass Game

Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	ECU Def
Pass GamePass	#121	#74
Pass SuccessPSuc	#131	#37
Pass ExplPExl	#15	#126
PPAExp	#121	#100
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#26	#75
F7 HavocF7	#101	#8
DB HavocDB	#3	#53

East Carolina on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	ECU Off	NAVY Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#47	#30
SuccessSuc	#132	#51
ExplosiveExp	#89	#59
PPAPPA	#132	#45
PowerPwr	#59	#31
SP+SP+	#58	#53
Pts POPPO	#129	#7
HavocHav	#116	#56

East Carolina Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	ECU Off	NAVY Def
Run GameRun	#60	#37
Run SuccessRSuc	#128	#23
Run ExplRExp	#87	#16
PPAExp	#123	#15
Run BlockR Blk	#43	-
OL YdsOLY	#111	#30
Stuff RateStuff	#74	#33
TackleTak	-	#16

East Carolina Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	ECU Off	NAVY Def
Pass GamePass	#59	#29
Pass SuccessPSuc	#130	#114
Pass ExplPExl	#92	#75
PPAExp	#129	#103
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#65	#97
F7 HavocF7	#108	#36
DB HavocDB	#116	#88

Program Comparison
ECU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Top G5

NAVY 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 14
East Carolina -2.5 (54.0)
Navy won at East Carolina this year (34-20)

Previous Matchups
Navy beat East Carolina in 2024 (34-20)
Navy beat East Carolina in 2023 (10-0)

NAVY's OC Drew Cronic (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Horvath	80	139	58%	1353	13	4	9.7
Braxton Woodson	18	36	50%	243	2	2	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Blake Horvath	176	1254	17	7.1	95
Alex Tecza	123	556	8	4.5	65
Eli Heidenreich	65	444	3	6.8	60
Daba Fofana	60	263	2	4.4	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eli Heidenreich	39	671	6	17.2	74
Brandon Chatman	18	257	4	14.3	46
Alex Tecza	12	229	2	19.1	46
Nathan Kent	10	222	2	22.2	77

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC P.J. Volker (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Colin Ramos	129	9	3	4	2
Kyle Jacob	102	5	1	2	2
Rayuan Lane	70	1	0	0	4
Luke Pirris	68	6	3	5	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Justin Reed	49	11	6	4	1
Landon Robinson	61	6	5	7	0
Colin Ramos	129	9	3	4	2
Luke Pirris	68	6	3	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Dashaun Peele	45	4	2	5
Rayuan Lane	70	1	0	4
Andrew Duhart	29	2	0	4

ECU's OC John David Baker (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Katin Houser (Tr)	149	245	61%	2006	18	11	8.2
Jake Garcia (Tr)	109	181	60%	1426	8	12	7.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rahjai Harris	206	1166	11	5.7	86
London Montgomery (Tr)	71	359	2	5.1	48
Marlon Gunn	61	224	3	3.7	20
Katin Houser (Tr)	49	170	4	3.5	35

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Smith (Tr)	41	799	6	19.5	64
Chase Sowell	34	678	3	19.9	56
Winston Wright	54	556	8	10.3	65
Yannick Smith	25	434	3	17.4	52

View East Carolina's Full Roster

ECU's DC Blake Harrell (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Omar Rogers	105	6	1	2	2
Zakye Barker	81	12	2	1	1
Michael Edwards III	75	9	1	2	4
Ja'Marley Riddle	63	4	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah Morris	31	6	4	2	0
Samuel Dankah	34	7	3	1	2
J.D. Lampley	25	5	2	6	0
Ryheem Craig (Tr)	49	6	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaiah Brown-Murray	40	1	0	0	6
Michael Edwards III	75	9	1	2	4
Ja'Marley Riddle	63	4	0	0	4