Navy Midshipmen at East Carolina Pirates
Friday, November 29th 2024 (12:00 PM EST)
East Carolina -2.5 (54.0) (-105) Open: -1.0 | 55.5
Navy 34 - East Carolina: 20 (American Athletic)
Midshipmen (10 - 3) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Brian Newberry (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 31 - 22 (29 - 15 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Coach Brian Newberry (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 31 - 22 (29 - 15 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
NAVY coming off BYE
ECU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Navy -1 (SP+ NAVY -4.5)
Projected Score: NAVY: 27 - ECU: 26 (54)
ECU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
NAVY Travel: 239 miles
ECU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Navy -1 (SP+ NAVY -4.5)
Projected Score: NAVY: 27 - ECU: 26 (54)
ECU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
NAVY Travel: 239 miles
Pirates (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Blake Harrell (5 - 0)
Avg Score : 32 - 27 (36 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Coach Blake Harrell (5 - 0)
Avg Score : 32 - 27 (36 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
| Navy's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/31 | Navy vs Bucknell | -31.5 | 48.5 | W 49 - 21 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/7 | Navy vs Temple | -11.5 | 43.5 | W 38 - 11 | O | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Navy vs Memphis | +9.5 | 47.0 | W 56 - 44 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/28 | Navy at UAB | -4.5 | 56.5 | W 41 - 18 | O | Y | |
| Sat 10/5 | Navy at Air Force | -10.0 | 37.0 | W 34 - 7 | O | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/19 | Navy vs Charlotte | -16.5 | 57.5 | W 51 - 17 | O | Y | |
| Sat 10/26 | Navy vs Notre Dame | +14.0 | 50.5 | L 14 - 51 | O | N | |
| Sat 11/2 | Navy at Rice | -12.5 | 49.0 | L 10 - 24 | U | N | |
| Sat 11/9 | Navy at South Florida | -4.5 | 59.5 | W 28 - 7 | U | Y | |
| Sat 11/16 | Navy vs Tulane | +7.5 | 49.0 | L 0 - 35 | U | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Fri 11/29 | Navy at East Carolina | +2.5 | 54.0 | W 34 - 20 | U | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 12/14 | Navy vs Army | +6.0 | 39.5 | ||||
| Fri 12/27 | Navy vs Oklahoma | -1.0 | 44.0 | W 21 - 20 | U | N | |
Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Predictions for Navy's Schedule
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
| East Carolina's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/31 | East Carolina vs Norfolk State | -31.5 | 51.5 | W 42 - 3 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/7 | East Carolina at Old Dominion | +1.5 | 53.5 | W 20 - 14 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/14 | East Carolina vs App State | -0.5 | 56.5 | L 19 - 21 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/21 | East Carolina at Liberty | +7.5 | 55.0 | L 24 - 35 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/28 | East Carolina vs UTSA | -2.0 | 53.5 | W 30 - 20 | U | Y | |
| Sat 10/5 | East Carolina at Charlotte | -9.5 | 47.5 | L 24 - 55 | O | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/19 | East Carolina at Army | +17.5 | 54.0 | L 28 - 45 | O | Y | |
| Sat 10/26 | East Carolina vs Temple | -8.5 | 48.5 | W 56 - 34 | O | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Thu 11/7 | East Carolina vs Florida Atlantic | -5.5 | 58.5 | W 49 - 14 | O | Y | |
| Thu 11/14 | East Carolina at Tulsa | -16.0 | 63.5 | W 38 - 31 | O | N | |
| Sat 11/23 | East Carolina at North Texas | +2.5 | 73.5 | W 40 - 28 | U | Y | |
| Fri 11/29 | East Carolina vs Navy | -2.5 | 54.0 | L 20 - 34 | U | N | |
| Sat 12/28 | East Carolina vs NC State | +7.5 | 61.5 | W 26 - 21 | U | Y | |
Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 7
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Predictions for East Carolina's Schedule
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 7
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Important Stats (2024)
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAVY | #12 (.31) | 44% (51) | 31.3 | 46% (43) | 3.27 (32) | 231 | 39% (101) | 117 | 4.39 (26) | #28 (.1) | 41% (61) | 22.2 | 46% (95) | 37% (24) | 3.48 (35) | 41.9 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| ECU | #49 (.22) | 43% (62) | 32 | 44% (71) | 3.07 (57) | 147 | 43% (54) | 253 | 3.79 (83) | #64 (.16) | 40% (40) | 27.3 | 37% (11) | 43% (86) | 3.85 (76) | 61 | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAVY | #12 (.31) | 44% (51) | 46% (43) | 3.27 (32) | 231 | 39% (101) | 117 | 4.39 (26) | #28 (.1) | 41% (61) | 46% (95) | 37% (24) | 3.48 (35) | 41.9 | 1.1 | 1.8 | ||
| ECU | #49 (.22) | 43% (62) | 44% (71) | 3.07 (57) | 147 | 43% (54) | 253 | 3.79 (83) | #64 (.16) | 40% (40) | 37% (11) | 43% (86) | 3.85 (76) | 61 | 2.2 | 1.6 |
Overall Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAVY Offense | 13 | 31.3 | 29.4 | 44.2% | 4.39 | 1.1 | 16 | 347 | 231 | 117 | 5.5 | 74% | 26% | 46% | 39% | 11% | .31 |
| ECU Defense | 13 | 27.3 | 21 | 39.5% | 3.85 | 1.6 | - | - | - | - | - | 54% | 46% | 37% | 43% | 16% | .16 |
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAVY Defense | 13 | 22.2 | 15.2 | 41.2% | 3.48 | 1.8 | - | - | - | - | - | 51% | 48% | 46% | 37% | 14% | .1 |
| ECU Offense | 13 | 32 | 36 | 43.3% | 3.79 | 2.2 | 20 | 400 | 147 | 253 | 4.4 | 52% | 48% | 44% | 43% | 15% | .22 |
Additional Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs | Avg Field Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navy | 13 | 27:47 | 16.2 | 39% | 64% | 4.8 | 41.9 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 3 | 31.6 |
| East Carolina | 13 | 23:08 | 20.1 | 42% | 53% | 7.3 | 61 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 6.5 | 1.3 | 4 | 30.4 |
Run Game Stats (2024)
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAVY Offense | 13 | 74% (3) | 46% (43) | 42.3 | 230.7 | 5.5 | 35 (8) | .29 (10) | 3.27 (32) | 82% (15) | 8% (28) | 1.2 (7) |
| ECU Defense | 13 | 54% (109) | 37% (11) | - | - | - | - | .03 (22) | 2.57 (14) | 57% (3) | 11% (48) | 1.02 (84) |
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAVY Defense | 13 | 51% (77) | 46% (95) | - | - | - | - | .16 (89) | 3.27 (107) | 77% (89) | 9% (101) | 0.92 (39) |
| ECU Offense | 13 | 52% (63) | 44% (71) | 33.2 | 147.3 | 4.4 | 20 (67) | .17 (47) | 3.07 (57) | 79% (27) | 8% (42) | 1.02 (48) |
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAVY Offense | 13 | 26% (132) | 39% (101) | 7.1 | 12.8 | 116.7 | 9.1 | 16.5 | 15 (98) | 6 (10) | .39 (15) | 2 (3) | 29% (26) | 27% (110) | .4 (37) | 3% (4) | 2.5 (2) |
| ECU Defense | 13 | 46% (28) | 43% (86) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 13 (31) | .32 (105) | 1.7 (98) | 33% (51) | 35% (117) | .46 (122) | 5% (104) | 2.1 (78) |
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAVY Defense | 13 | 48% (57) | 37% (24) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 17 (5) | .07 (8) | 1.5 (51) | 31% (85) | 25% (8) | .2 (30) | 5% (89) | 2.2 (112) |
| ECU Offense | 13 | 48% (72) | 43% (54) | 18.5 | 30.7 | 252.7 | 8.2 | 13.7 | 26 (26) | 21 (134) | .28 (54) | 1.7 (24) | 30% (37) | 34% (33) | .51 (8) | 7% (92) | 2.3 (7) |
Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: 2.20 #53
Navy's Offense Rating: 24.12 #27
Navy's Defense Rating: 5.57 #31
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Navy's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Navy's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5 #57
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #51
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #53
Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Navy's Power Rating: 2.20 #53
Navy's Offense Rating: 24.12 #27
Navy's Defense Rating: 5.57 #31
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Navy's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Navy's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5 #57
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #51
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #53
Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Power Ratings Matchup
Navy: 2.20 East Carolina: 1.885
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Navy: 3.5 East Carolina: -1.0
Navy: 2.20 East Carolina: 1.885
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Navy: 3.5 East Carolina: -1.0
East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: 1.885 #65
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 20.65 #59
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 8.33 #56
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
East Carolina's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
East Carolina's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0 #73
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.5 #58
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #87
Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
East Carolina's Power Rating: 1.885 #65
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 20.65 #59
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 8.33 #56
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
East Carolina's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
East Carolina's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0 #73
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.5 #58
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #87
Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.4
Defense: 22.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 15.2
Navy's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Offense: 31.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.4
Defense: 22.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 15.2
Navy's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Navy 27
East Carolina 26
Total Points: 54
Navy 27
East Carolina 26
Total Points: 54
East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 27.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 21
East Carolina's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Offense: 32 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 27.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 21
East Carolina's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
| Year | Date | Home | Score | Away | Score | Winner | Spread | Cover | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 11/29 | East Carolina | 20 | Navy | 34 | Navy | East Carolina -2.5 | Navy | 54.0 | Push |
| 2023 | 11/18 | Navy | 10 | East Carolina | 0 | Navy | Navy -2.5 | Navy | 30.5 | Under |
| 2022 | 09/24 | East Carolina | 20 | Navy | 23 | Navy | East Carolina -16.5 | Navy | 48.5 | Under |
| 2021 | 11/20 | Navy | 35 | East Carolina | 38 | East Carolina | East Carolina -3.5 | Navy | 46.0 | Over |
| 2020 | 10/17 | East Carolina | 23 | Navy | 27 | Navy | Navy -3 | Navy | 55.5 | Under |
| 2019 | 09/14 | Navy | 42 | East Carolina | 10 | Navy | Navy -7.5 | Navy | 53.0 | Under |
| 2016 | 11/19 | East Carolina | 31 | Navy | 66 | Navy | Navy -8 | Navy | 64.0 | Over |
| 2015 | 09/19 | Navy | 45 | East Carolina | 21 | Navy | Navy -1.5 | Navy | 58.0 | Over |
| 2012 | 10/27 | East Carolina | 28 | Navy | 56 | Navy | ||||
| 2011 | 10/22 | Navy | 35 | East Carolina | 38 | East Carolina | ||||
| 2010 | 11/06 | East Carolina | 35 | Navy | 76 | Navy | ||||
| 2006 | 09/02 | Navy | 28 | East Carolina | 23 | Navy |
| Team | Wins | Covers | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| East Carolina | 2 | 0 | 3 Overs |
| Navy | 10 | 8 | 4 Unders |
| Wins | Covers | Favs | Dogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 4 - 8 | 4 - 4 | 3 - 2 | 1 - 2 |
| Road Teams | 8 - 4 | 4 - 4 | 2 - 1 | 2 - 3 |
(#53) Navy Info
Power Rating: 2.20 #53
Offense Rating: 24.12 #27
Defense Rating: 5.57 #31
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5 #57
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #51
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #53
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Team Profile
Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.39 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Good in Scoring Position 3.48 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Navy has lost 1 straight
Navy has won 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 5 - 1 (4 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )
Navy Notes
(12/14) Dominated Army, Rgame 275+, Def was perfect
(11/29) Backup QB Woodson torched ECU in finale
(11/29) Run Def great, held ECU to 4-15 on 3rd, 1-3 4th
(11/18) Off abysmal vs Tulane, can't play with quality opps
(11/3) Horvath playing hurt (thumb) not the same
(11/3) Sinking L (Rice), 2 TOs, Rgame was really bad
(10/28) 7.5 ppg via TOs even after the ND game (6 TOs)
(10/22) Def has a stop rate of 73% (#15) into ND game
(10/20) Even w/ Char but forced 5 TOs. Outrushed
(10/18) Run Def is atrocious & schedule gets harder now
Navy Highlights
Navy has Really Good Running Game (#1)
Navy offense is explosive (#102)
Navy offense is good in red zone (#31)
Navy does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#5)
Navy defense does not give up big plays (#92)
Navy has a good pass defense (#89)
Navy commits very few Penalties (#59)
Navy defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)
Navy Deficiencies
Navy pass game is really bad (#32)
Navy Does Not Stuff Runs (#50)
Navy has a bad defensive line (#37)
Power Rating: 2.20 #53
Offense Rating: 24.12 #27
Defense Rating: 5.57 #31
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5 #57
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #51
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #53
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Team Profile
Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.39 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Good in Scoring Position 3.48 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Navy has lost 1 straight
Navy has won 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 5 - 1 (4 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )
Navy Notes
(12/14) Dominated Army, Rgame 275+, Def was perfect
(11/29) Backup QB Woodson torched ECU in finale
(11/29) Run Def great, held ECU to 4-15 on 3rd, 1-3 4th
(11/18) Off abysmal vs Tulane, can't play with quality opps
(11/3) Horvath playing hurt (thumb) not the same
(11/3) Sinking L (Rice), 2 TOs, Rgame was really bad
(10/28) 7.5 ppg via TOs even after the ND game (6 TOs)
(10/22) Def has a stop rate of 73% (#15) into ND game
(10/20) Even w/ Char but forced 5 TOs. Outrushed
(10/18) Run Def is atrocious & schedule gets harder now
Navy Highlights
Navy has Really Good Running Game (#1)
Navy offense is explosive (#102)
Navy offense is good in red zone (#31)
Navy does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#5)
Navy defense does not give up big plays (#92)
Navy has a good pass defense (#89)
Navy commits very few Penalties (#59)
Navy defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)
Navy Deficiencies
Navy pass game is really bad (#32)
Navy Does Not Stuff Runs (#50)
Navy has a bad defensive line (#37)
| Performance GradesPerf Grades | ||
|---|---|---|
| CategoryCat | ECU | NAVY |
| OverallOver | #42 | #16 |
| OffenseOff | #41 | #18 |
| DefenseDef | #33 | #23 |
| Special TeamsST | #105 | #3 |
| PassingPass | #47 | #98 |
| RushingRush | #43 | #28 |
| Run BlockRBLK | #34 | #16 |
| Pass BlockPBLK | #57 | #26 |
| Route RunningWR Rt | #32 | #25 |
| TacklingTkl | #66 | #14 |
| Run DefenseR Def | #16 | #29 |
| Pass Rush DefPRush | #66 | #83 |
| Coverage DefCov | #60 | #21 |
Rematch from Week 14
East Carolina -2.5 (54.0)
Navy won at East Carolina this year (34-20)
Previous Matchups
Navy beat East Carolina last year (34-20)
Navy beat East Carolina in 2023 (10-0)
Navy beat East Carolina in 2022 (23-20)
Weather Forecast
Playing in Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Team Information
Injuries: NAVY | ECU
Depth Chart: NAVY | ECU
Rosters: NAVY | ECU
(#65) East Carolina Info
Power Rating: 1.885 #65
Offense Rating: 20.65 #59
Defense Rating: 8.33 #56
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0 #73
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.5 #58
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #87
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 43%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.79 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 40%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.85 PPO
Great Run Def Success 37%
Bad Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
East Carolina has won 4 straight
East Carolina has won 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 4 - 2 (4 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)
East Carolina Notes
(11/26) Interim HC Blake Harrell hired after 5-0 run
(11/25) 4 str W's under Harrell, Off mauled N. Texas
(11/8) Off rolling, 575+ yds, 343 pass/238 rush vs FAU
(10/27) Off had 56 pts in 3 Q's game after Houston fired
(10/20) Run D torched for 295 (5.3 ypc) vs Army
(10/20) HC Houston Fired after Army gm, DC Harrell Int
(10/8) Run D torched for 300+ (6 ypc) vs Char?
(10/8) Slipping after awful '23. Staff done? Quit watch
(9/28) Rgame awful but Garcia good in W over UTSA
(9/23) Have 14 TOs in 4 games (last), Garcia 9 Int
East Carolina Highlights
East Carolina offense is explosive (#31)
East Carolina has a good run defense (#44)
East Carolina Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#5)
East Carolina Defensive Line is very good (#15)
East Carolina Deficiencies
East Carolina has a bad TO Margin (#11)
East Carolina Commits a Lot of Penalties (#127)
East Carolina throws a Lot of Interceptions (#23)
East Carolina does not Sack the QB (#31)
East Carolina gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#91)
Power Rating: 1.885 #65
Offense Rating: 20.65 #59
Defense Rating: 8.33 #56
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0 #73
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.5 #58
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #87
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 43%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.79 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 40%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.85 PPO
Great Run Def Success 37%
Bad Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
East Carolina has won 4 straight
East Carolina has won 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 4 - 2 (4 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)
East Carolina Notes
(11/26) Interim HC Blake Harrell hired after 5-0 run
(11/25) 4 str W's under Harrell, Off mauled N. Texas
(11/8) Off rolling, 575+ yds, 343 pass/238 rush vs FAU
(10/27) Off had 56 pts in 3 Q's game after Houston fired
(10/20) Run D torched for 295 (5.3 ypc) vs Army
(10/20) HC Houston Fired after Army gm, DC Harrell Int
(10/8) Run D torched for 300+ (6 ypc) vs Char?
(10/8) Slipping after awful '23. Staff done? Quit watch
(9/28) Rgame awful but Garcia good in W over UTSA
(9/23) Have 14 TOs in 4 games (last), Garcia 9 Int
East Carolina Highlights
East Carolina offense is explosive (#31)
East Carolina has a good run defense (#44)
East Carolina Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#5)
East Carolina Defensive Line is very good (#15)
East Carolina Deficiencies
East Carolina has a bad TO Margin (#11)
East Carolina Commits a Lot of Penalties (#127)
East Carolina throws a Lot of Interceptions (#23)
East Carolina does not Sack the QB (#31)
East Carolina gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#91)
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Horvath | 80 | 139 | 58% | 1353 | 13 | 4 | 9.7 |
| Braxton Woodson | 18 | 36 | 50% | 243 | 2 | 2 | 6.8 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Horvath | 176 | 1254 | 17 | 7.1 | 95 |
| Alex Tecza | 123 | 556 | 8 | 4.5 | 65 |
| Eli Heidenreich | 65 | 444 | 3 | 6.8 | 60 |
| Daba Fofana | 60 | 263 | 2 | 4.4 | 49 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Heidenreich | 39 | 671 | 6 | 17.2 | 74 |
| Brandon Chatman | 18 | 257 | 4 | 14.3 | 46 |
| Alex Tecza | 12 | 229 | 2 | 19.1 | 46 |
| Nathan Kent | 10 | 222 | 2 | 22.2 | 77 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Ramos | 129 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Kyle Jacob | 102 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Rayuan Lane | 70 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Luke Pirris | 68 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Reed | 49 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
| Landon Robinson | 61 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Colin Ramos | 129 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Luke Pirris | 68 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dashaun Peele | 45 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| Rayuan Lane | 70 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Andrew Duhart | 29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katin Houser (Tr) | 149 | 245 | 61% | 2006 | 18 | 11 | 8.2 |
| Jake Garcia (Tr) | 109 | 181 | 60% | 1426 | 8 | 12 | 7.9 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rahjai Harris | 206 | 1166 | 11 | 5.7 | 86 |
| London Montgomery (Tr) | 71 | 359 | 2 | 5.1 | 48 |
| Marlon Gunn | 61 | 224 | 3 | 3.7 | 20 |
| Katin Houser (Tr) | 49 | 170 | 4 | 3.5 | 35 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Smith (Tr) | 41 | 799 | 6 | 19.5 | 64 |
| Chase Sowell | 34 | 678 | 3 | 19.9 | 56 |
| Winston Wright | 54 | 556 | 8 | 10.3 | 65 |
| Yannick Smith | 25 | 434 | 3 | 17.4 | 52 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omar Rogers | 105 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Zakye Barker | 81 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Michael Edwards III | 75 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Ja'Marley Riddle | 63 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Morris | 31 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Samuel Dankah | 34 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| J.D. Lampley | 25 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Ryheem Craig (Tr) | 49 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Brown-Murray | 40 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Michael Edwards III | 75 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Ja'Marley Riddle | 63 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |