Troy at Georgia Southern - 2024 Matchup Preview
Troy logo Troy Trojans at Georgia Southern EaglesGeorgia Southern logo
Saturday, November 16th 2024 (4:00 PM EST)
Georgia Southern -7 (54.0) (-278)  Open: -8.5
Troy 28 - Georgia Southern: 20  (Sun Belt)

 
Trojans (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Gerad Parker (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 28 (23 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
TROY coming off BYE
GASO coming off BYE
Our Line: Georgia Southern -8   (SP+ GASO -5)

Projected Score: TROY: 24 - GASO: 32 (55)
GASO Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
TROY Travel: 248 miles, 1 hrs behind
Eagles (8 - 5) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Clay Helton (12 - 14)
Avg Score : 28 - 28 (31 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
 
Troy's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Troy vs Nevada-7.544.5L 26 - 28ON
Sat 9/7 Troy at Memphis+18.557.5L 17 - 38UN
Sat 9/14 Troy at Iowa+23.539.5L 21 - 38OY
Sat 9/21 Troy vs Florida A&M-21.548.5W 34 - 12UY
Sat 9/28 Troy vs UL Monroe-6.046.0L 9 - 13UN
Thu 10/3 Troy vs Texas State+14.556.0L 17 - 38UN
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/15 Troy at South Alabama+10.053.0L 9 - 25UN
Sat 10/26 Troy at Arkansas State+8.550.0L 31 - 34OY
Sat 11/2 Troy vs Coastal Carolina+4.052.0W 38 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Troy at Georgia Southern+7.054.0W 28 - 20UY
Sat 11/23 Troy at Louisiana+7.551.5L 30 - 51ON
Sat 11/30 Troy vs Southern Miss-17.548.5W 52 - 20OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 3

Predictions for Troy's Schedule
Georgia Southern's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Georgia Southern vs Boise State+13.057.5L 45 - 56OY
Sat 9/7 Georgia Southern at Nevada+1.556.5W 20 - 17UY
Sat 9/14 Georgia Southern vs South Carolina State-27.552.5W 42 - 14OY
Sat 9/21 Georgia Southern at Ole Miss+35.068.5L 13 - 52UN
Sat 9/28 Georgia Southern at Georgia State+3.557.5W 38 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Georgia Southern vs Marshall-1.058.5W 24 - 23UN
Sat 10/19 Georgia Southern vs James Madison+9.558.5W 28 - 14UY
Thu 10/24 Georgia Southern at Old Dominion-1.052.0L 19 - 47ON
Sat 11/2 Georgia Southern at South Alabama+5.560.0W 34 - 30OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Georgia Southern vs Troy-7.054.0L 20 - 28UN
Sat 11/23 Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina+2.059.5W 26 - 6UY
Sat 11/30 Georgia Southern vs App State-2.560.5W 29 - 20UY
Thu 12/19 Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston-3.548.0L 26 - 31ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Georgia Southern's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TROY#50 (.22)44% (49)2642% (94)2.88 (95)15748% (15)2134.43 (22)#77 (.18)43% (87)28.445% (87)42% (76)3.77 (65)58.81.30.7
GASO#68 (.19)43% (65)2846% (44)2.84 (101)12840% (85)2384.57 (17)#105 (.23)45% (108)27.647% (109)44% (102)3.81 (71)48.31.71.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TROY#50 (.22)44% (49)42% (94)2.88 (95)15748% (15)2134.43 (22)#77 (.18)43% (87)45% (87)42% (76)3.77 (65)58.81.30.7
GASO#68 (.19)43% (65)46% (44)2.84 (101)12840% (85)2384.57 (17)#105 (.23)45% (108)47% (109)44% (102)3.81 (71)48.31.71.5



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TROY Offense122622.744.3%4.431.3203701572134.454%46%42%48%16%.22
GASO Defense1327.625.845.5%3.811.5 - - - - - 47%53%47%44%14%.23
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TROY Defense1228.434.343.3%3.770.7 - - - - - 53%47%45%42%17%.18
GASO Offense132831.342.9%4.571.7223661282383.846%53%46%40%17%.19

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Troy1230:1720.350%47%6.758.81.30.76.31.5227
Georgia Southern1330:0921.845%75%5.648.31.71.54.61.6127.7
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TROY Offense1254% (43)42% (94)36.1157.34.417 (84).11 (82)2.88 (95)76% (49)11% (89)0.95 (77)
GASO Defense1347% (27)47% (109) - - - - .18 (99)3.1 (87)72% (60)8% (106)1 (79)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TROY Defense1253% (89)45% (87) - - - - .12 (68)2.99 (64)71% (52)11% (40)0.91 (36)
GASO Offense1346% (95)46% (44)33.8128.23.824 (45).15 (57)2.84 (101)78% (36)11% (94)0.99 (57)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TROY Offense1246% (92)48% (15)17.828.3213.17.51221 (51)9 (48).36 (25)1.5 (81)31% (64)35% (32).41 (35)5% (50)1.9 (109)
GASO Defense1353% (108)44% (102) - - - - - - 13 (31).28 (97)1.5 (52)31% (89)32% (94).35 (89)5% (100)2 (54)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TROY Defense1247% (48)42% (76) - - - - - - 6 (109).25 (79)1.6 (76)29% (107)30% (71).28 (58)5% (91)2 (47)
GASO Offense1353% (39)40% (85)22.234.2237.8710.721 (51)11 (72).23 (86)1.5 (84)31% (60)33% (48).39 (43)6% (65)2 (90)

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: -14.63 #112
Troy's Offense Rating: 20.68 #58
Troy's Defense Rating: 15.27 #111
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Troy's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Troy's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6 #96
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #93
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #90

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Troy: -14.63   Georgia Southern: -2.765

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Troy: -6.6   Georgia Southern: -1.7




Georgia Southern's Power Ratings
Georgia Southern's Power Rating: -2.765 #96
Georgia Southern's Offense Rating: 20.12 #66
Georgia Southern's Defense Rating: 14.04 #102
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Georgia Southern's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Georgia Southern's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.7 #76
Georgia Southern's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #72
Georgia Southern's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #90

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Troy Scoring
Offense: 26 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.7
Defense: 28.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.3

Troy's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Georgia Southern 32
Troy 24


Total Points: 55

Georgia Southern Scoring
Offense: 28 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.3
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.8

Georgia Southern's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/16Georgia Southern20Troy28TroyGeorgia Southern -7Troy54.0Under
202110/09Troy27Georgia Southern24TroyTroy -5.5Georgia Southern51.0Push
202011/07Georgia Southern20Troy13Georgia SouthernTroy -2.5Georgia Southern51.5Under
201911/09Troy49Georgia Southern28TroyGeorgia Southern -2.5Troy57.0Over
201811/10Georgia Southern21Troy35TroyTroy -2Troy44.5Over
201710/28Troy38Georgia Southern16TroyTroy -23.5Georgia Southern49.5Over
201612/03Georgia Southern28Troy24Georgia SouthernTroy -9Georgia Southern53.0Under
201511/14Troy10Georgia Southern45Georgia SouthernGeorgia Southern -10Georgia Southern58.5Under
201410/30Georgia Southern42Troy10Georgia SouthernTroy -20.5Georgia Southern0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Georgia Southern463 Overs
Troy534 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 34 - 50 - 34 - 2
Road Teams3 - 65 - 42 - 43 - 0

(#112) Troy Info
Power Rating: -14.63 #112
Offense Rating: 20.68 #58
Defense Rating: 15.27 #111
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6 #96
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #93
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #90
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.43 PPO
Poor Run Success 42%
Great Pass Success 48%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.77 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 45%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Troy has won 1 straight
Troy has lost 4 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 5 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

Troy Notes
(11/3) Blasted C. Car, Rgame 344 yds, 6.4 ypc in upset
(10/27) Still fighting, close L (Ark St), Off 450+, Def bad
(10/22) QB Crowder out for season, 2 QB split for now
(10/16) Run game is awful, Run defense is almost as bad
(10/4) Runs 56% but horrible success. QB decent, D bad
(9/8) Serious Rgame issues, bad 0-2 start. Lotta flags
(9/8) QB Crower JAG, D all. 214 Ryds @ home (Nev L)
(7/30) New HC Parker (ND OC), OC Reagan (WVU QB)
(7/30) Major roster TO. 25 transfers out, only 11 in
(7/30) Bottom 5 ret prod. Lost QB, RB, top 3 WR

Troy Highlights
Troy offense is good in red zone (#115)
Troy offense is good on 3rd downs

Troy Deficiencies
Troy does not Sack the QB (#31)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatGASOTROY
OverallOver#68#63
OffenseOff#77#45
DefenseDef#70#87
Special TeamsST#62#102
PassingPass#68#69
RushingRush#58#36
Run BlockRBLK#88#52
Pass BlockPBLK#23#78
Route RunningWR Rt#72#27
TacklingTkl#56#82
Run DefenseR Def#67#61
Pass Rush DefPRush#76#112
Coverage DefCov#63#86

Rematch from Week 12
Georgia Southern -7.0 (54.0)
Troy won at Georgia Southern this year (28-20)

Previous Matchups
Troy beat Georgia Southern last year (28-20)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Paulson Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TROY | GASO
Depth Chart: TROY | GASO
Rosters: TROY | GASO
(#96) Georgia Southern Info
Power Rating: -2.765 #96
Offense Rating: 20.12 #66
Defense Rating: 14.04 #102
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.7 #76
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #72
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #90
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 43%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.57 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Bad Pass Success 40%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 45%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.81 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Georgia Southern has won 1 straight
Georgia Southern has won 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 4 - 2 (4 - 1 - 1 vs Spread)

Georgia Southern Notes
(11/25) French torced CC, Rgame awful, Def 3 INTs in W
(11/18) Bad L vs Troy, Rgame awful, Pass D awful
(11/3) Big W (S. Al), Outgained (100+) but forced 2 TOs
(10/24) Killed by ODU, gave up 500+ yds, 250+ rushing
(10/20) Rgame 190 (4.8 ypc), Def great in JMU upset
(10/18) QB French (concussion) cleared for JMU game
(10/13) Rgame bad vs Marshall, 21 pt 4Q comeback W
(9/28) Rgame 261 (5.4), French good vs Ga St.
(9/1) Good fight vs Boise, QB French good. Def awful
(8/17) Big year for Helton, need progress

Georgia Southern Highlights
Georgia Southern offense is good in red zone (#74)

Georgia Southern Deficiencies
Georgia Southern has a bad TO Margin (#54)
Georgia Southern Fumbles a Lot (#42)
Georgia Southern has a bad defense (#136)


  
Troy's OC Sean Reagan
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Matthew Caldwell14122463%16081387.2
Will Crowder446370%547508.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Damien Taylor173101075.856
Gerald Green (Tr)11154534.951
Tucker Kilcrease3911803.025
Will Crowder176313.712
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Devonte Ross7610441113.798
Landon Parker27350013.033
Peyton Higgins3130119.737
Zeriah Beason16208013.035

View Troy's Full Roster
Troy's DC Dontae Wright
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brendan Jackson (Tr)7716223
Jordan Stringer778210
Justin Powe672104
Ian Conerly-Goodly (Tr)542014
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Phillip Lee3011571
Julian Peterson255310
Brendan Jackson (Tr)7716223
Jordan Stringer778210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Damaje Yancey494208
LJ Green272016
Justin Powe672104

Georgia Southern's OC Ryan Aplin
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
JC French26941066%283117116.9
Dexter Williams II (Tr)193063%248308.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen White164745144.549
OJ Arnold6231535.132
JC French11823822.019
David Mbadinga5822933.929
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Derwin Burgess Jr.59659311.248
Josh Dallas46614613.359
Dalen Cobb52599411.555
LV Bunkley-Shelton (Tr)30322010.734

View Georgia Southern's Full Roster
Georgia Southern's DC Brandon Bailey
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marques Watson-Trent1188221
Davon Gilmore625341
Jusfin Meyers613111
Chance Gamble (Tr)482007
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davon Gilmore625341
Davion Rhodes226310
Elhadj Fall205311
Marc Stampley II422207
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chance Gamble (Tr)482007
Marc Stampley II422207
Isaac Walker234233