Southern Miss at Troy - 2024 Matchup Preview
Southern Miss logo Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Troy TrojansTroy logo
Saturday, November 30th 2024 (2:00 PM EST)
Troy -17.5 (48.5) (-1000)  Open: -17.5 | 48.5
Troy 52 - Southern Miss: 20  (Sun Belt)

 
Golden Eagles (1 - 11) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Reed Stringer (Int) (13 - 24)
Avg Score : 15 - 38 (11 - 43 on Road)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#132)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
USM is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Troy -19   (SP+ TROY -19)

Projected Score: USM: 16 - TROY: 35 (54)
TROY Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
USM Travel: 202 miles
Trojans (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Gerad Parker (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 28 (29 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Southern Miss's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Southern Miss at Kentucky+25.550.5L 0 - 31UN
Sat 9/7 Southern Miss vs SE Louisiana-17.553.5W 35 - 10UY
Sat 9/14 Southern Miss vs South Florida+13.058.5L 24 - 49ON
Sat 9/21 Southern Miss at Jacksonville State+6.059.5L 7 - 44UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Southern Miss vs Louisiana+17.557.5L 13 - 23UY
Sat 10/12 Southern Miss at UL Monroe+4.541.0L 21 - 38ON
Sat 10/19 Southern Miss vs Arkansas State+7.057.0L 28 - 44ON
Sat 10/26 Southern Miss at James Madison+24.054.0L 15 - 32UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 Southern Miss vs Marshall+13.553.5L 3 - 37UN
Sat 11/16 Southern Miss at Texas State+27.556.5L 3 - 58ON
Sat 11/23 Southern Miss vs South Alabama+24.054.0L 14 - 35UY
Sat 11/30 Southern Miss at Troy+17.548.5L 20 - 52ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 5, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 5, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 3, Bad: 5, Poor: 3

Predictions for Southern Miss's Schedule
Troy's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Troy vs Nevada-7.544.5L 26 - 28ON
Sat 9/7 Troy at Memphis+18.557.5L 17 - 38UN
Sat 9/14 Troy at Iowa+23.539.5L 21 - 38OY
Sat 9/21 Troy vs Florida A&M-21.548.5W 34 - 12UY
Sat 9/28 Troy vs UL Monroe-6.046.0L 9 - 13UN
Thu 10/3 Troy vs Texas State+14.556.0L 17 - 38UN
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/15 Troy at South Alabama+10.053.0L 9 - 25UN
Sat 10/26 Troy at Arkansas State+8.550.0L 31 - 34OY
Sat 11/2 Troy vs Coastal Carolina+4.052.0W 38 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Troy at Georgia Southern+7.054.0W 28 - 20UY
Sat 11/23 Troy at Louisiana+7.551.5L 30 - 51ON
Sat 11/30 Troy vs Southern Miss-17.548.5W 52 - 20OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 2

Predictions for Troy's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USM#109 (.12)37% (121)15.340% (106)2.89 (107)16334% (126)1913.07 (121)#105 (.24)42% (69)37.841% (49)45% (109)4.15 (103)48.21.31.4
TROY#56 (.21)41% (78)2642% (79)3.12 (66)15441% (79)2653.78 (78)#4 (.03)38% (27)28.437% (22)40% (43)2.96 (10)46.41.31.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USM0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TROY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USM Offense1215.31136.7%3.071.320354163191453%46%40%34%20%.12
TROY Defense1428.422.538.1%2.961.6 - - - - - 47%52%37%40%18%.03
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USM Defense1237.842.542.2%4.151.4 - - - - - 53%46%41%45%16%.24
TROY Offense142629.341.4%3.781.3214191542654.448%51%42%41%15%.21

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Southern Miss1233:1520.338%44%6.348.21.31.44.52.1228
Troy1430:5921.141%45%5.146.41.31.66.93.1130.9
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USM Offense1253% (41)40% (106)40.5163.4416 (89).13 (80)2.89 (107)67% (109)12% (109)1.11 (19)
TROY Defense1447% (29)37% (22) - - - - -.03 (10)2.75 (18)60% (9)13% (9)0.97 (48)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USM Defense1253% (106)41% (49) - - - - .22 (109)3.21 (94)67% (30)10% (76)1.24 (129)
TROY Offense1448% (85)42% (79)34.6153.94.419 (69).15 (75)3.12 (66)72% (88)10% (62)1.03 (50)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USM Offense1246% (92)34% (126)15.730.4190.76.312.215 (96)8 (30).14 (114)1.7 (26)36% (126)28% (87).34 (67)8% (117)2.1 (49)
TROY Defense1452% (105)40% (43) - - - - - - 10 (67).12 (11)1.4 (12)34% (36)28% (41).2 (16)5% (105)1.9 (28)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USM Defense1246% (27)45% (109) - - - - - - 9 (87).32 (101)1.7 (101)31% (93)33% (103).4 (106)6% (63)2.3 (123)
TROY Offense1451% (45)41% (79)19.932.6265.18.113.329 (18)6 (14).29 (66)1.7 (41)33% (85)29% (80).3 (78)6% (60)2.2 (31)

Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -29.09 #133
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 7.03 #134
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 18.37 #125
2024 Talent Rating: 452.00 #111
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Southern Miss's 2024 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Southern Miss's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -25.6 #133
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.4 #130
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #128

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 471.71
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -29.09   Troy: -8.115

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -25.6   Troy: -6.6




Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: -8.115 #112
Troy's Offense Rating: 20.68 #58
Troy's Defense Rating: 15.27 #111
2024 Talent Rating: 422.00 #113
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Troy's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Troy's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6 #96
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #93
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #90

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 471.71
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 15.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 11
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 42.5

Southern Miss's 2024 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Projected Score
Troy 35
Southern Miss 16


Projected Total Points: 54
Troy Scoring
Offense: 26 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.3
Defense: 28.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.5

Troy's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/30Troy52Southern Miss20TroyTroy -17.5Troy48.5Over
202311/25Southern Miss17Troy35TroyTroy -16.5Troy48.5Over
202210/08Troy27Southern Miss10TroyTroy -7Troy44.0Under
202109/18Southern Miss9Troy21TroyTroy -11Troy49.0Under
201909/14Troy42Southern Miss47Southern MissTroy -3Southern Miss49.0Over
201609/17Southern Miss31Troy37TroySouthern Mississippi -11.5Troy61.0Over
200812/21Troy27Southern Miss30Southern Miss
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Troy554 Overs
Southern Miss212 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 52 - 42 - 20 - 2
Road Teams5 - 24 - 22 - 02 - 2

(#133) Southern Miss Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -29.09 #133
Offense Rating: 7.03 #134
Defense Rating: 18.37 #125
Overall SP+ Rating: -25.6 #133
Offense SP+ Rating: 14.4 #130
Defense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #128
Talent Rating: 452.00 #111
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 35%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.75 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Awful Pass Success 30%
Poor OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.17 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 45%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Southern Miss Notes
(11/25) Off awful vs S. Al, worst team in SBC
(11/18) Has to be worst Off in CFB. 3 pts in 2 straight L's
(10/22) Def stop rate 42% (#126) into week 9
(10/20) HC Will Hall fired, GM Reed Stringer Int?
(10/12) QB Crawford abysmal, Def torched in L (UL Mon)
(10/4) Def awful (B 10)/Off getting worse. Staff big trouble
(9/14) Allowed 369 yds rushing to S Fla. Rgame awful
(9/11) Worst Rgame in CFB to date. 36% suc, 39% stuffed
(9/1) Miserable L @ UK. Lucky game called. No Off
(7/30) QB Rodemaker (FSU) leads lots of SEC transfers
Southern Miss     Ratings Matchup     Troy
Power #133
#112
Off #134
#58
Def #125
#111
Talent #111
#113
SP+ #133
#96
SP+ Off #130
#93
SP+ Def #128
#90

Rematch from Week 14
Troy -17.5 (48.5)
Troy won vs Southern Miss this year (52-20)

Previous Matchups
Troy beat Southern Miss last year (52-20)
Troy beat Southern Miss in 2023 (35-17)
Troy beat Southern Miss in 2022 (27-10)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Veterans Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 54° - Wind: 9 mph


Team Information
Injuries: USM | TROY
Depth Chart: USM | TROY
Rosters: USM | TROY
(#112) Troy Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -8.115 #112
Offense Rating: 20.68 #58
Defense Rating: 15.27 #111
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6 #96
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #93
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #90
Talent Rating: 422.00 #113
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.43 PPO
Poor Run Success 42%
Great Pass Success 48%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.77 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 45%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Troy Notes
(11/3) Blasted C. Car, Rgame 344 yds, 6.4 ypc in upset
(10/27) Still fighting, close L (Ark St), Off 450+, Def bad
(10/22) QB Crowder out for season, 2 QB split for now
(10/16) Run game is awful, Run defense is almost as bad
(10/4) Runs 56% but horrible success. QB decent, D bad
(9/8) Serious Rgame issues, bad 0-2 start. Lotta flags
(9/8) QB Crower JAG, D all. 214 Ryds @ home (Nev L)
(7/30) New HC Parker (ND OC), OC Reagan (WVU QB)
(7/30) Major roster TO. 25 transfers out, only 11 in
(7/30) Bottom 5 ret prod. Lost QB, RB, top 3 WR


  
Southern Miss's OC Chip Long
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tate Rodemaker (Tr)9816559%985776.0
Ethan Crawford5012042%849077.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kenyon Clay8438774.670
Ethan Crawford9720932.221
Jalen Washington2611814.514
JQ Gray3210603.319
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Larry Simmons (Tr)27421115.675
Tiaquelin Mims33393111.956
Kenyon Clay21225110.737
Kyirin Heath (Tr)15210214.034

View Southern Miss's Full Roster
Southern Miss's DC Clay Bignell
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tre Pinkney (Tr)745120
Chris Jones463101
Ja'Len Sims455113
Desmyn Baker (Tr)422212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brodarius Lewis398400
Ryan Johnson (Tr)234390
Jameer Lewis245251
Desmyn Baker (Tr)422212
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Will James (Tr)352007
Ques McNeal292004
Ja'Len Sims455113

Troy's OC Sean Reagan
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Matthew Caldwell14122463%16081387.2
Will Crowder446370%547508.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Damien Taylor173101075.856
Gerald Green (Tr)11154534.951
Tucker Kilcrease3911803.025
Will Crowder176313.712
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Devonte Ross7610441113.798
Peyton Higgins3130119.737
Zeriah Beason16208013.035
Brody Dalton15188312.536

View Troy's Full Roster
Troy's DC Dontae Wright
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brendan Jackson (Tr)7716223
Jordan Stringer778210
Justin Powe672104
Ian Conerly-Goodly (Tr)542014
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Phillip Lee3011571
Julian Peterson255310
Brendan Jackson (Tr)7716223
Jordan Stringer778210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
LJ Green272016
Justin Powe672104
Ian Conerly-Goodly (Tr)542014