Southern Miss at Troy - 2024 Matchup Preview
Southern Miss logo Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Troy TrojansTroy logo
Saturday, November 30th 2024 (2:00 PM EST)
Troy -17.5 (48.5) (-1000)  Open: -17.5 | 48.5
Troy 52 - Southern Miss: 20  (Sun Belt)

 
Golden Eagles (1 - 11) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Reed Stringer (Int) (13 - 24)
Avg Score : 15 - 38 (11 - 43 on Road)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#132)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 8)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
USM is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Troy -19   (SP+ TROY -19)

Projected Score: USM: 16 - TROY: 35 (51)
TROY Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
USM Travel: 202 miles
Trojans (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Gerad Parker (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 28 (29 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Southern Miss's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Southern Miss at Kentucky+25.550.5L 0 - 31UN
Sat 9/7 Southern Miss vs SE Louisiana-17.553.5W 35 - 10UY
Sat 9/14 Southern Miss vs South Florida+13.058.5L 24 - 49ON
Sat 9/21 Southern Miss at Jacksonville State+6.059.5L 7 - 44UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Southern Miss vs Louisiana+17.557.5L 13 - 23UY
Sat 10/12 Southern Miss at UL Monroe+4.541.0L 21 - 38ON
Sat 10/19 Southern Miss vs Arkansas State+7.057.0L 28 - 44ON
Sat 10/26 Southern Miss at James Madison+24.054.0L 15 - 32UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 Southern Miss vs Marshall+13.553.5L 3 - 37UN
Sat 11/16 Southern Miss at Texas State+27.556.5L 3 - 58ON
Sat 11/23 Southern Miss vs South Alabama+24.054.0L 14 - 35UY
Sat 11/30 Southern Miss at Troy+17.548.5L 20 - 52ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 5, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 5, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 3, Bad: 5, Poor: 3

Predictions for Southern Miss's Schedule
Troy's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Troy vs Nevada-7.544.5L 26 - 28ON
Sat 9/7 Troy at Memphis+18.557.5L 17 - 38UN
Sat 9/14 Troy at Iowa+23.539.5L 21 - 38OY
Sat 9/21 Troy vs Florida A&M-21.548.5W 34 - 12UY
Sat 9/28 Troy vs UL Monroe-6.046.0L 9 - 13UN
Thu 10/3 Troy vs Texas State+14.556.0L 17 - 38UN
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/15 Troy at South Alabama+10.053.0L 9 - 25UN
Sat 10/26 Troy at Arkansas State+8.550.0L 31 - 34OY
Sat 11/2 Troy vs Coastal Carolina+4.052.0W 38 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Troy at Georgia Southern+7.054.0W 28 - 20UY
Sat 11/23 Troy at Louisiana+7.551.5L 30 - 51ON
Sat 11/30 Troy vs Southern Miss-17.548.5W 52 - 20OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 2

Predictions for Troy's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USM#132 ()35% (130)15.340% (108)2.59 (126)10930% (133)1752.75 (133)#125 (.3)44% (97)37.845% (89)43% (93)4.17 (104)48.32.40.8
TROY#50 (.22)44% (49)2642% (94)2.88 (95)15748% (15)2134.43 (22)#77 (.18)43% (87)28.445% (87)42% (76)3.77 (65)58.81.30.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USM#132 ()35% (130)40% (108)2.59 (126)10930% (133)1752.75 (133)#125 (.3)44% (97)45% (89)43% (93)4.17 (104)48.32.40.8
TROY#50 (.22)44% (49)42% (94)2.88 (95)15748% (15)2134.43 (22)#77 (.18)43% (87)45% (87)42% (76)3.77 (65)58.81.30.7



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USM Offense1215.31134.7%2.752.4162841091753.249%51%40%30%26%
TROY Defense1228.422.543.3%3.770.7 - - - - - 53%47%45%42%17%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USM Defense1237.842.544.1%4.170.8 - - - - - 55%45%45%43%14%.3
TROY Offense122629.344.3%4.431.3203701572134.454%46%42%48%16%.22

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Southern Miss1227:2215.525%44%648.32.40.85.41.7226.5
Troy1230:1720.350%47%6.758.81.30.76.31.5227
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USM Offense1249% (79)40% (108)34.21093.213 (105).06 (103)2.59 (126)61% (124)18% (133)1 (53)
TROY Defense1253% (89)45% (87) - - - - .12 (68)2.99 (64)71% (52)11% (40)0.91 (36)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USM Defense1255% (116)45% (89) - - - - .27 (129)3.22 (101)71% (54)10% (80)1.21 (131)
TROY Offense1254% (43)42% (94)36.1157.34.417 (84).11 (82)2.88 (95)76% (49)11% (89)0.95 (77)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USM Offense1251% (55)30% (133)13.826.5174.96.612.67 (130)17 (127)-.05 (134)1.7 (30)38% (130)24% (125).15 (129)8% (122)2.1 (45)
TROY Defense1247% (48)42% (76) - - - - - - 6 (109).25 (79)1.6 (76)29% (107)30% (71).28 (58)5% (91)2 (47)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USM Defense1245% (20)43% (93) - - - - - - 6 (109).35 (114)1.7 (114)31% (77)35% (114).51 (124)5% (113)2.2 (116)
TROY Offense1246% (92)48% (15)17.828.3213.17.51221 (51)9 (48).36 (25)1.5 (81)31% (64)35% (32).41 (35)5% (50)1.9 (109)

Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -29.09 #133
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 7.03 #134
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 18.37 #125
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Southern Miss's 2024 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Southern Miss's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -25.6 #133
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.4 #130
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #128

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -29.09   Troy: -8.115

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -25.6   Troy: -6.6




Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: -8.115 #112
Troy's Offense Rating: 20.68 #58
Troy's Defense Rating: 15.27 #111
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Troy's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Troy's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6 #96
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #93
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #90

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 15.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 11
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 42.5

Southern Miss's 2024 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Projected Score
Troy 35
Southern Miss 16


Total Points: 51

Troy Scoring
Offense: 26 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.3
Defense: 28.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.5

Troy's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/30Troy52Southern Miss20TroyTroy -17.5Troy48.5Over
202311/25Southern Miss17Troy35TroyTroy -16.5Troy48.5Over
202210/08Troy27Southern Miss10TroyTroy -7Troy44.0Under
202109/18Southern Miss9Troy21TroyTroy -11Troy49.0Under
201909/14Troy42Southern Miss47Southern MissTroy -3Southern Miss49.0Over
201609/17Southern Miss31Troy37TroySouthern Mississippi -11.5Troy61.0Over
200812/21Troy27Southern Miss30Southern Miss
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Troy554 Overs
Southern Miss212 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 52 - 42 - 20 - 2
Road Teams5 - 24 - 22 - 02 - 2

(#133) Southern Miss Info
Power Rating: -29.09 #133
Offense Rating: 7.03 #134
Defense Rating: 18.37 #125
Overall SP+ Rating: -25.6 #133
Offense SP+ Rating: 14.4 #130
Defense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #128
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 35%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.75 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Awful Pass Success 30%
Poor OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.17 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 45%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Southern Miss has lost 9 straight
Southern Miss has lost 5 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 6 (1 - 5 - 0 vs Spread )

Southern Miss Notes
(11/25) Off awful vs S. Al, worst team in SBC
(11/18) Has to be worst Off in CFB. 3 pts in 2 straight L's
(10/22) Def stop rate 42% (#126) into week 9
(10/20) HC Will Hall fired, GM Reed Stringer Int?
(10/12) QB Crawford abysmal, Def torched in L (UL Mon)
(10/4) Def awful (B 10)/Off getting worse. Staff big trouble
(9/14) Allowed 369 yds rushing to S Fla. Rgame awful
(9/11) Worst Rgame in CFB to date. 36% suc, 39% stuffed
(9/1) Miserable L @ UK. Lucky game called. No Off
(7/30) QB Rodemaker (FSU) leads lots of SEC transfers

Southern Miss Highlights

Southern Miss Deficiencies
Southern Miss has a really bad Offense
Southern Miss has a bad TO Margin (#28)
Southern Miss Fumbles a Lot (#1)
Southern Miss Can Not Run the Ball (#109)
Southern Miss throws a Lot of Interceptions (#60)
Southern Miss offense is really bad (#78)
Southern Miss Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#90)
Southern Miss offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#81)
Southern Miss run game is really bad (#99)
Southern Miss pass game is really bad (#56)
Southern Miss offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Southern Miss Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Southern Miss gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#78)
Southern Miss has a bad defensive line (#90)
Southern Miss has a bad red zone defense (#64)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatTROYUSM
OverallOver#63#99
OffenseOff#45#110
DefenseDef#87#102
Special TeamsST#102#74
PassingPass#69#102
RushingRush#36#69
Run BlockRBLK#52#106
Pass BlockPBLK#78#89
Route RunningWR Rt#27#101
TacklingTkl#82#119
Run DefenseR Def#61#100
Pass Rush DefPRush#112#55
Coverage DefCov#86#102

Rematch from Week 14
Troy -17.5 (48.5)
Troy won vs Southern Miss this year (52-20)

Previous Matchups
Troy beat Southern Miss last year (52-20)
Troy beat Southern Miss in 2023 (35-17)
Troy beat Southern Miss in 2022 (27-10)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Veterans Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: USM | TROY
Depth Chart: USM | TROY
Rosters: USM | TROY
(#112) Troy Info
Power Rating: -8.115 #112
Offense Rating: 20.68 #58
Defense Rating: 15.27 #111
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6 #96
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #93
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #90
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.43 PPO
Poor Run Success 42%
Great Pass Success 48%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.77 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 45%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Troy has lost 1 straight
Troy has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 3 - 3 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)

Troy Notes
(11/3) Blasted C. Car, Rgame 344 yds, 6.4 ypc in upset
(10/27) Still fighting, close L (Ark St), Off 450+, Def bad
(10/22) QB Crowder out for season, 2 QB split for now
(10/16) Run game is awful, Run defense is almost as bad
(10/4) Runs 56% but horrible success. QB decent, D bad
(9/8) Serious Rgame issues, bad 0-2 start. Lotta flags
(9/8) QB Crower JAG, D all. 214 Ryds @ home (Nev L)
(7/30) New HC Parker (ND OC), OC Reagan (WVU QB)
(7/30) Major roster TO. 25 transfers out, only 11 in
(7/30) Bottom 5 ret prod. Lost QB, RB, top 3 WR

Troy Highlights
Troy offense is good in red zone (#115)
Troy offense is good on 3rd downs

Troy Deficiencies
Troy does not Sack the QB (#31)


  
Southern Miss's OC Chip Long
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tate Rodemaker (Tr)9816559%985776.0
Ethan Crawford5012042%849077.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rodrigues Clark12460414.954
Kenyon Clay8438774.670
Ethan Crawford9720932.221
Jalen Washington2611814.514
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Larry Simmons (Tr)27421115.675
Tiaquelin Mims33393111.956
Kenyon Clay21225110.737
Kyirin Heath (Tr)15210214.034

View Southern Miss's Full Roster
Southern Miss's DC Clay Bignell
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tre Pinkney (Tr)745120
Jay Jones463033
Chris Jones463101
Ja'Len Sims455113
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brodarius Lewis398400
Ryan Johnson (Tr)234390
Jalil Clemons347330
Jameer Lewis245251
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Will James (Tr)352007
Ques McNeal292004
Ja'Len Sims455113

Troy's OC Sean Reagan
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Matthew Caldwell14122463%16081387.2
Will Crowder446370%547508.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Damien Taylor173101075.856
Gerald Green (Tr)11154534.951
Tucker Kilcrease3911803.025
Will Crowder176313.712
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Devonte Ross7610441113.798
Landon Parker27350013.033
Peyton Higgins3130119.737
Zeriah Beason16208013.035

View Troy's Full Roster
Troy's DC Dontae Wright
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brendan Jackson (Tr)7716223
Jordan Stringer778210
Justin Powe672104
Ian Conerly-Goodly (Tr)542014
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Phillip Lee3011571
Julian Peterson255310
Brendan Jackson (Tr)7716223
Jordan Stringer778210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Damaje Yancey494208
LJ Green272016
Justin Powe672104