Nevada at Troy - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, August 31st 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Troy -7.5 (44.5) (-550) Open: -15.0 | 45.5
Nevada 28 - Troy: 26

Wolf Pack (3 - 10) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Jeff Choate (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (18 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 10 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Temp: 96.8° (38% Hum)
Our Line: Troy -6 (SP+ TROY -9)
Projected Score: NEV: 22 - TROY: 28 (50)
TROY Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
NEV Travel: 1962 miles, 2 hrs behind

Trojans (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Gerad Parker (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 28 (29 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NEV Players
TROY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Nevada's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	Nevada vs SMU	+28.0	55.5	L 24 - 29	U	Y
Sat 8/31	Nevada at Troy	+7.5	44.5	W 28 - 26	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Nevada vs Georgia Southern	-1.5	56.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/14	Nevada at Minnesota	+17.5	44.5	L 0 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/21	Nevada vs Eastern Washington	-13.5	54.5	W 49 - 16	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Nevada at San José State	+7.0	51.5	L 31 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Nevada vs Oregon State	+3.0	47.0	W 42 - 37	O	Y
Fri 10/18	Nevada vs Fresno State	+3.0	50.0	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Nevada at Hawai'i	+2.5	42.0	L 13 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/2	Nevada vs Colorado State	+2.0	45.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/9	Nevada at Boise State	+23.5	60.5	L 21 - 28	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Nevada vs Air Force	-3.0	44.5	L 19 - 22	U	N
Sat 11/30	Nevada at UNLV	+17.5	54.5	L 14 - 38	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule

Troy's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Troy vs Nevada	-7.5	44.5	L 26 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/7	Troy at Memphis	+18.5	57.5	L 17 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/14	Troy at Iowa	+23.5	39.5	L 21 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Troy vs Florida A&M	-21.5	48.5	W 34 - 12	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Troy vs UL Monroe	-6.0	46.0	L 9 - 13	U	N
Thu 10/3	Troy vs Texas State	+14.5	56.0	L 17 - 38	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/15	Troy at South Alabama	+10.0	53.0	L 9 - 25	U	N
Sat 10/26	Troy at Arkansas State	+8.5	50.0	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Troy vs Coastal Carolina	+4.0	52.0	W 38 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Troy at Georgia Southern	+7.0	54.0	W 28 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Troy at Louisiana	+7.5	51.5	L 30 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/30	Troy vs Southern Miss	-17.5	48.5	W 52 - 20	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV	#55 (.21)	45% (46)	23.1	47% (33)	3.06 (59)	164	42% (65)	213	3.88 (73)	#110 (.24)	46% (117)	28.8	49% (121)	43% (92)	4.33 (114)	73.1	1.2	1
TROY	#50 (.22)	44% (49)	26	42% (94)	2.88 (95)	157	48% (15)	213	4.43 (22)	#77 (.18)	43% (87)	28.4	45% (87)	42% (76)	3.77 (65)	58.8	1.3	0.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV	#55 (.21)	45% (46)		47% (33)	3.06 (59)	164	42% (65)	213	3.88 (73)	#110 (.24)	46% (117)		49% (121)	43% (92)	4.33 (114)	73.1	1.2	1
TROY	#50 (.22)	44% (49)		42% (94)	2.88 (95)	157	48% (15)	213	4.43 (22)	#77 (.18)	43% (87)		45% (87)	42% (76)	3.77 (65)	58.8	1.3	0.7

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Offense	13	23.1	17.8	44.5%	3.88	1.2	19	377	164	213	4.6	53%	47%	47%	42%	16%	.21
TROY Defense	12	28.4	22.5	43.3%	3.77	0.7	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	45%	42%	17%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Defense	13	28.8	31.3	46.4%	4.33	1	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	49%	43%	14%	.24
TROY Offense	12	26	29.3	44.3%	4.43	1.3	20	370	157	213	4.4	54%	46%	42%	48%	16%	.22

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Nevada	13	31:02	19.5	45%	52%	7.6	73.1	1.2	1	4.2	1.1	1	26.4
Troy	12	30:17	20.3	50%	47%	6.7	58.8	1.3	0.7	6.3	1.5	2	27

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Offense	13	53% (47)	47% (33)	35.4	164.2	4.6	21 (59)	.16 (51)	3.06 (59)	69% (93)	10% (81)	0.97 (64)
TROY Defense	12	53% (89)	45% (87)	-	-	-	-	.12 (68)	2.99 (64)	71% (52)	11% (40)	0.91 (36)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Defense	13	56% (126)	49% (121)	-	-	-	-	.27 (130)	3.17 (91)	80% (109)	8% (119)	1.08 (107)
TROY Offense	12	54% (43)	42% (94)	36.1	157.3	4.4	17 (84)	.11 (82)	2.88 (95)	76% (49)	11% (89)	0.95 (77)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Offense	13	47% (87)	42% (65)	19	28.2	212.6	7.6	11.2	19 (65)	8 (40)	.27 (57)	1.6 (71)	32% (69)	32% (60)	.42 (29)	6% (74)	2.1 (59)
TROY Defense	12	47% (48)	42% (76)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (109)	.25 (79)	1.6 (76)	29% (107)	30% (71)	.28 (58)	5% (91)	2 (47)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Defense	13	44% (11)	43% (92)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.2 (50)	1.5 (49)	30% (103)	39% (130)	.46 (119)	7% (47)	1.9 (42)
TROY Offense	12	46% (92)	48% (15)	17.8	28.3	213.1	7.5	12	21 (51)	9 (48)	.36 (25)	1.5 (81)	31% (64)	35% (32)	.41 (35)	5% (50)	1.9 (109)

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -13.37 #109
Nevada's Offense Rating: 22.53 #46
Nevada's Defense Rating: 14.97 #108
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Nevada's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 10.0
Nevada's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #117
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #106
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #113

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -13.37 Troy: -8.115

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -15.2 Troy: -6.6

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: -8.115 #112
Troy's Offense Rating: 20.68 #58
Troy's Defense Rating: 15.27 #111
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Troy's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Troy's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6 #96
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #93
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #90

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 23.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.3

Nevada's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Troy 28
Nevada 22

Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
Troy 38
Nevada 20

Total Points: 58

Based on Entire Season
Troy 29
Nevada 23

Total Points: 52

Troy Scoring
Offense: 26 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.3
Defense: 28.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.5

Troy's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	08/31	Troy	26	Nevada	28	Troy -7.5	Nevada	44.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Troy	0	0	1 Overs
Nevada	1	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#109) NEV at (#112) TROY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NEV	TROY
Power RatePwr	#109	#112
SP+SP+	#117	#96
Perf GradeGrade	#94	#89
OffenseOff	#39	#52
DefenseDef	#119	#107
Spec TeamsST	#133	#125
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#65

Nevada Notes(11/3) Outgained CSU but 2 TOs, bad 3rd down cost em
(10/19) 2nd H vs Fresno, 4 Punts, 2 loss of downs
(10/19) Rgame abysmal, 84 yds (2.2 ypc) vs Fresno in L
(10/19) QB Lewis benched for Purdy in Fresno game
(10/12) QB Lewis/RB Red almost 300 rush yds over Oreg St
(9/23) Choate a huge upgrade over prev staff
(9/1) QB Lewis v mobile, better passer than anticipated
(9/1) Played w/ SMU, W @ Troy. Nev vastly improved TY
(7/30) Worst team in CFB in '23, fired everyone
(7/30) Off near worst in '23, QB Purdy (Neb)?, WR ?
(7/30) OL has 3 back, RB actually decent. Lost AA Kicker
(7/30) Def near worst in 23, rebuild. All will take time
Nevada Injury Report

Troy Notes(11/18) 2 str W's, upset GaSo. QB Caldwell great TW
(11/3) Blasted C. Car, Rgame 344 yds, 6.4 ypc in upset
(10/27) Still fighting, close L (Ark St), Off 450+, Def bad
(10/22) QB Crowder out for season, 2 QB split for now
(10/16) Run game is awful, Run defense is almost as bad
(10/4) Runs 56% but horrible success. QB decent, D bad
(9/8) Serious Rgame issues, bad 0-2 start. Lotta flags
(9/8) QB Crower JAG, D all. 214 Ryds @ home (Nev L)
(7/30) New HC Parker (ND OC), OC Reagan (WVU QB)
(7/30) Major roster TO. 25 transfers out, only 11 in
(7/30) Bottom 5 ret prod. Lost QB, RB, top 3 WR
(7/30) OL has some pieces, Def massive losses
Troy Injury Report

Nevada on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	TROY Def
Perf GradePerf	#39	#107
SuccessSuc	#46	#87
ExplosiveExp	#94	#50
PPAPPA	#55	#77
PowerPwr	#46	#111
SP+SP+	#106	#90
Pts POPPO	#73	#65
HavocHav	#78	#60

Nevada Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	TROY Def
Run GameRun	#70	#77
Run SuccessRSuc	#33	#87
Run ExplRExp	#64	#36
PPAExp	#51	#68
Run BlockR Blk	#50	-
OL YdsOLY	#59	#64
Stuff RateStuff	#47	#80
TackleTak	-	#95

Nevada Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	TROY Def
Pass GamePass	#23	#106
Pass SuccessPSuc	#65	#76
Pass ExplPExl	#71	#76
PPAExp	#57	#79
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#80	#133
F7 HavocF7	#81	#40
DB HavocDB	#74	#91

Troy on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	TROY Off	NEV Def
Perf GradePerf	#52	#119
SuccessSuc	#49	#117
ExplosiveExp	#87	#59
PPAPPA	#50	#110
PowerPwr	#58	#108
SP+SP+	#93	#113
Pts POPPO	#22	#114
HavocHav	#75	#95

Troy Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	TROY Off	NEV Def
Run GameRun	#51	#132
Run SuccessRSuc	#94	#121
Run ExplRExp	#77	#107
PPAExp	#82	#130
Run BlockR Blk	#66	-
OL YdsOLY	#95	#91
Stuff RateStuff	#93	#69
TackleTak	-	#131

Troy Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	TROY Off	NEV Def
Pass GamePass	#88	#75
Pass SuccessPSuc	#15	#92
Pass ExplPExl	#81	#49
PPAExp	#25	#50
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#92	#58
F7 HavocF7	#89	#119
DB HavocDB	#50	#47

Program Comparison
TROY 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Veterans Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 97°

Rematch from Week 1
Troy -7.5 (44.5)
Nevada won at Troy this year (28-26)

Previous Matchups
Nevada beat Troy last year (28-26)

NEV's OC Matt Lubick (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendon Lewis	211	312	68%	2290	16	7	7.3
Chubba Purdy (Tr)	18	25	72%	239	1	1	9.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brendon Lewis	157	775	8	4.9	67
Savion Red (Tr)	119	687	8	5.8	69
Pat Garwo III	55	246	5	4.5	25
Sean Dollars	47	165	0	3.5	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Smith	62	849	7	13.7	62
Cortez Braham	56	724	4	12.9	57
Marcus Bellon	39	522	4	13.4	63
Caleb Ramseur	8	106	1	13.3	44

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kitan Crawford (Tr)	76	3	0	1	6
Drue Watts	65	5	1	0	3
Tongiaki Mateialona	61	9	2	0	2
Stone Combs	58	3	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Henry Ikahihifo	43	8	4	3	0
Kristopher Ross	29	6	3	3	2
Tongiaki Mateialona	61	9	2	0	2
Jonathan Maldonado	17	3	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Michael Coats Jr.	41	1	0	10
Kitan Crawford (Tr)	76	3	1	6
Chad Brown	47	5	0	6

TROY's OC Sean Reagan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Matthew Caldwell	141	224	63%	1608	13	8	7.2
Will Crowder	44	63	70%	547	5	0	8.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Damien Taylor	173	1010	7	5.8	56
Gerald Green (Tr)	111	545	3	4.9	51
Tucker Kilcrease	39	118	0	3.0	25
Will Crowder	17	63	1	3.7	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devonte Ross	76	1044	11	13.7	98
Landon Parker	27	350	0	13.0	33
Peyton Higgins	31	301	1	9.7	37
Zeriah Beason	16	208	0	13.0	35

View Troy's Full Roster

TROY's DC Dontae Wright (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brendan Jackson (Tr)	77	16	2	2	3
Jordan Stringer	77	8	2	1	0
Justin Powe	67	2	1	0	4
Ian Conerly-Goodly (Tr)	54	2	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Phillip Lee	30	11	5	7	1
Julian Peterson	25	5	3	1	0
Brendan Jackson (Tr)	77	16	2	2	3
Jordan Stringer	77	8	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Damaje Yancey	49	4	2	0	8
LJ Green	27	2	0	1	6
Justin Powe	67	2	1	0	4