Troy at South Alabama Game Matchup
Troy logo Troy Trojans at South Alabama JaguarsSouth Alabama logo
Tuesday, October 15th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
South Alabama -10 (53.0) (-395)  Open: -13.5
South Alabama 25 - Troy: 9  (Sun Belt)

 
Trojans (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Gerad Parker (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 28 (23 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 4)
TROY coming off BYE
USA coming off BYE
Our Line: South Alabama -12.5   (SP+ USA -9)

Projected Score: TROY: 22 - USA: 35 (57)
USA Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
TROY Travel: 145 miles
Jaguars (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Major Applewhite (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (44 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 4)
 
Troy's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Troy vs Nevada-7.544.5L 26 - 28ON
Sat 9/7 Troy at Memphis+18.557.5L 17 - 38UN
Sat 9/14 Troy at Iowa+23.539.5L 21 - 38OY
Sat 9/21 Troy vs Florida A&M-21.548.5W 34 - 12UY
Sat 9/28 Troy vs UL Monroe-6.046.0L 9 - 13UN
Thu 10/3 Troy vs Texas State+14.556.0L 17 - 38UN
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/15 Troy at South Alabama+10.053.0L 9 - 25UN
Sat 10/26 Troy at Arkansas State+8.550.0L 31 - 34OY
Sat 11/2 Troy vs Coastal Carolina+4.052.0W 38 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Troy at Georgia Southern+7.054.0W 28 - 20UY
Sat 11/23 Troy at Louisiana+7.551.5L 30 - 51ON
Sat 11/30 Troy vs Southern Miss-17.548.5W 52 - 20OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Troy's Schedule
South Alabama's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 South Alabama vs North Texas-6.061.5L 38 - 52ON
Sat 9/7 South Alabama at Ohio-1.555.5L 20 - 27UN
Thu 9/12 South Alabama vs Northwestern State-36.560.5W 87 - 10OY
Thu 9/19 South Alabama at App State+8.062.5W 48 - 14UY
Sat 9/28 South Alabama at LSU+21.064.5L 10 - 42UN
Sat 10/5 South Alabama at Arkansas State-2.562.5L 16 - 18UN
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/15 South Alabama vs Troy-10.053.0W 25 - 9UY
Sat 10/26 South Alabama vs UL Monroe-7.045.0W 46 - 17OY
Sat 11/2 South Alabama vs Georgia Southern-5.560.0L 30 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 South Alabama at Louisiana+6.560.0W 24 - 22UY
Sat 11/23 South Alabama at Southern Miss-24.054.0W 35 - 14UN
Fri 11/29 South Alabama vs Texas State+2.560.5L 38 - 45ON
Sat 12/14 South Alabama vs Western Michigan-6.053.5W 30 - 23UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for South Alabama's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TROY#56 (.21)41% (78)2642% (79)3.12 (66)15441% (79)2653.78 (78)#4 (.03)38% (27)28.437% (22)40% (43)2.96 (10)46.41.31.6
USA#31 (.28)43% (57)34.442% (80)3.24 (44)17245% (35)2684.67 (15)#34 (.14)37% (17)25.235% (8)40% (44)3.32 (21)57.71.51.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TROY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
USA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TROY Offense142622.741.4%3.781.3214191542654.448%51%42%41%15%.21
USA Defense1325.227.836.6%3.321.7 - - - - - 54%45%35%40%16%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TROY Defense1428.434.338.1%2.961.6 - - - - - 47%52%37%40%18%.03
USA Offense1334.44443%4.671.5234401722684.848%51%42%45%15%.28

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Troy1430:5921.141%45%5.146.41.31.66.93.1130.9
South Alabama1330:3022.643%63%6.757.71.51.75.82031.4
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TROY Offense1448% (85)42% (79)34.6153.94.419 (69).15 (75)3.12 (66)72% (88)10% (62)1.03 (50)
USA Defense1354% (116)35% (8) - - - - -.01 (12)2.69 (14)74% (74)11% (33)0.9 (27)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TROY Defense1447% (29)37% (22) - - - - -.03 (10)2.75 (18)60% (9)13% (9)0.97 (48)
USA Offense1348% (81)42% (80)36171.94.828 (25).18 (49)3.24 (44)74% (71)10% (76)1.18 (6)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TROY Offense1451% (45)41% (79)19.932.6265.18.113.329 (18)6 (14).29 (66)1.7 (41)33% (85)29% (80).3 (78)6% (60)2.2 (31)
USA Defense1345% (19)40% (44) - - - - - - 13 (26).36 (109)1.8 (124)36% (12)27% (29).28 (47)5% (106)2.2 (104)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TROY Defense1452% (105)40% (43) - - - - - - 10 (67).12 (11)1.4 (12)34% (36)28% (41).2 (16)5% (105)1.9 (28)
USA Offense1351% (55)45% (35)22.432.9268.28.11228 (23)11 (68).41 (26)1.7 (34)34% (104)39% (8).59 (7)5% (27)2.2 (34)

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: -14.63 #112
Troy's Offense Rating: 20.68 #58
Troy's Defense Rating: 15.27 #111
2024 Talent Rating: 422.00 #113
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Troy's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Troy's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6 #96
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #93
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #90

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 471.71
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Troy: -14.63   South Alabama: 2.08

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Troy: -6.6   South Alabama: 2.8




South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: 2.08 #76
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 25.69 #16
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 10.70 #78
2024 Talent Rating: 512.00 #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
South Alabama's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
South Alabama's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #71

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 471.71
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Troy Scoring
Offense: 26 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.7
Defense: 28.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.3

Troy's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
South Alabama 35
Troy 22


Projected Total Points: 57
South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 44
Defense: 25.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

South Alabama's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/15South Alabama25Troy9South AlabamaSouth Alabama -10South Alabama53.0Under
202311/02Troy28South Alabama10TroyTroy -5.5Troy44.5Under
202210/20South Alabama6Troy10TroySouth Alabama -3Troy47.0Under
202111/06Troy31South Alabama24TroyTroy -3.5Troy47.5Over
202012/05South Alabama0Troy29TroyTroy -4.5Troy53.5Under
201910/16Troy37South Alabama13TroyTroy -17.5Troy55.5Under
201810/23South Alabama17Troy38TroyTroy -11Troy52.5Over
201710/11Troy8South Alabama19South AlabamaTroy -18South Alabama51.5Under
201610/20South Alabama21Troy28TroyTroy -9South Alabama49.0Push
201510/03Troy18South Alabama24South AlabamaTroy -3South Alabama61.5Under
201410/24South Alabama27Troy13South AlabamaSouth Alabama -12South Alabama0
201310/05Troy34South Alabama33TroyTroy -2.5South Alabama0
201209/29South Alabama10Troy31Troy
TeamWinsCoversO/U
South Alabama462 Overs
Troy967 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 76 - 65 - 41 - 2
Road Teams7 - 66 - 62 - 14 - 5

(#112) Troy Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -14.63 #112
Offense Rating: 20.68 #58
Defense Rating: 15.27 #111
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6 #96
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #93
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #90
Talent Rating: 422.00 #113
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.43 PPO
Poor Run Success 42%
Great Pass Success 48%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.77 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 45%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Troy Notes
(11/3) Blasted C. Car, Rgame 344 yds, 6.4 ypc in upset
(10/27) Still fighting, close L (Ark St), Off 450+, Def bad
(10/22) QB Crowder out for season, 2 QB split for now
(10/16) Run game is awful, Run defense is almost as bad
(10/4) Runs 56% but horrible success. QB decent, D bad
(9/8) Serious Rgame issues, bad 0-2 start. Lotta flags
(9/8) QB Crower JAG, D all. 214 Ryds @ home (Nev L)
(7/30) New HC Parker (ND OC), OC Reagan (WVU QB)
(7/30) Major roster TO. 25 transfers out, only 11 in
(7/30) Bottom 5 ret prod. Lost QB, RB, top 3 WR
Troy     Ratings Matchup     South Alabama
Power #112
#76
Off #58
#16
Def #111
#78
Talent #113
#93
SP+ #96
#61
SP+ Off #93
#47
SP+ Def #90
#71

Rematch from Week 8
South Alabama -10.0 (53.0)
South Alabama won vs Troy this year (25-9)

Previous Matchups
South Alabama beat Troy last year (25-9)
Troy beat South Alabama in 2023 (28-10)
Troy beat South Alabama in 2022 (10-6)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hancock Whitney Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 71° - Wind: 9 mph


Team Information
Injuries: TROY | USA
Depth Chart: TROY | USA
Rosters: TROY | USA
(#76) South Alabama Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 2.08 #76
Offense Rating: 25.69 #16
Defense Rating: 10.70 #78
Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #71
Talent Rating: 512.00 #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
Great Offense Success Rate of 50%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.66 PPO
Great Run Success 53%
Great Pass Success 47%
Bad OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.66 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


South Alabama Notes
(12/15) Great QB depth, backup Davenport can run/throw
(11/29) Def torched, gave up 3 TOs, OG'd by 160 by T St
(11/25) Rgame good, Lopez 3 TD over awful So Miss
(11/18) Huge W @ ULL, QB good, Def barely held on
(11/3) 450+ yds but 2 TOs cost badly in GaSo loss
(10/27) Rgame great (ULM), 358 yds, 7.8 ypc. Run D bad
(10/16) Avg 17 ppg last 3 games, stopped Troy, NBD
(10/4) Off great, Def v bad. High totals keep going under
(9/19) QB Lopez dynamic, FR RB Bothwell is a weapon
(9/8) QB Lopez (toe) DNP in L at Ohio


  
Troy's OC Sean Reagan
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Matthew Caldwell14122463%16081387.2
Will Crowder446370%547508.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Damien Taylor173101075.856
Gerald Green (Tr)11154534.951
Tucker Kilcrease3911803.025
Will Crowder176313.712
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Devonte Ross7610441113.798
Peyton Higgins3130119.737
Zeriah Beason16208013.035
Brody Dalton15188312.536

View Troy's Full Roster
Troy's DC Dontae Wright
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brendan Jackson (Tr)7716223
Jordan Stringer778210
Justin Powe672104
Ian Conerly-Goodly (Tr)542014
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Phillip Lee3011571
Julian Peterson255310
Brendan Jackson (Tr)7716223
Jordan Stringer778210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
LJ Green272016
Justin Powe672104
Ian Conerly-Goodly (Tr)542014

South Alabama's OC Rob Ezell
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Giovanni Lopez20531166%25571858.2
Bishop Davenport487961%604317.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell112834137.459
Kentrel Bullock15283275.559
Giovanni Lopez8246575.750
Bishop Davenport3716114.450
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Voisin34407012.028
Kentrel Bullock15153110.228
Anthony Eager10133213.338
Fluff Bothwell129007.528

View South Alabama's Full Roster
South Alabama's DC Will Windham
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blayne Myrick1018232
Darius McKenzie (Tr)724104
Jordan Scruggs705002
Wesley Miller592004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Courtney McBride3911530
Parker Shattuck113301
Tyler Thomas194300
Jordan Norman254322
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Amarion Fortenberry432006
Wesley Miller592004
Darius McKenzie (Tr)724104