NC State at Virginia Tech - 2023 Matchup Preview

NC State Wolfpack at Virginia Tech Hokies

Saturday, November 18th 2023 (3:30 PM EST)
Virginia Tech -2.5 (40.5) (0) Open: 0.0
NC State 35 - Virginia Tech: 28 (ACC)

Wolfpack (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (74 - 55)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (23 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NCST 2nd straight Road Game
VT is playing their 4th straight game
NCST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: NC State -2 (SP+ NCST -4.5)
Projected Score: NCST: 25 - VT: 23 (49)
VT Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
NCST Travel: 136 miles

Hokies (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brent Pry (4 - 10)
Avg Score : 21 - 30 (26 - 32 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.2 - 5.8 (#57)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NCST Players
VT Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

NC State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	NC State at UConn	-14.5	47.5	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/9	NC State vs Notre Dame	+7.0	49.5	L 24 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/16	NC State vs VMI	-42.5	51.0	W 45 - 7	O	N
Fri 9/22	NC State at Virginia	-8.5	47.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Fri 9/29	NC State vs Louisville	+3.5	56.5	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/7	NC State vs Marshall	-6.5	44.0	W 48 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/14	NC State at Duke	+3.5	44.0	L 3 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	NC State vs Clemson	+9.5	44.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/4	NC State vs Miami	+6.5	44.0	W 20 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/11	NC State at Wake Forest	+0.5	42.5	W 26 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/18	NC State at Virginia Tech	+2.5	40.5	W 35 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/25	NC State vs North Carolina	+2.0	55.0	W 39 - 20	O	Y
Thu 12/28	NC State vs Kansas State	+3.0	48.5	L 19 - 28	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for NC State's Schedule

Virginia Tech's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Virginia Tech vs Old Dominion	-16.0	48.0	W 36 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Virginia Tech vs Purdue	-1.5	49.0	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/16	Virginia Tech at Rutgers	+6.5	37.5	L 16 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/23	Virginia Tech at Marshall	+5.5	41.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh	+3.0	40.0	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Virginia Tech at Florida State	+23.5	52.5	L 17 - 39	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Virginia Tech vs Wake Forest	-1.5	48.5	W 30 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/26	Virginia Tech vs Syracuse	-2.5	47.5	W 38 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Virginia Tech at Louisville	+9.5	48.5	L 3 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/11	Virginia Tech at Boston College	-2.5	48.5	W 48 - 22	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Virginia Tech vs NC State	-2.5	40.5	L 28 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/25	Virginia Tech at Virginia	-2.5	52.5	W 55 - 17	O	Y
Wed 12/27	Virginia Tech vs Tulane	-13.5	43.5	W 41 - 20	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST	.13	39%	30.2	40%	2.81	114	38%	226	3.52	.1	35%	27.2	33%	37%	3.39	57.8	1.2	1.7
VT	.1	38%	21.4	40%	2.95	112	36%	203	2.62	.17	38%	30.2	41%	36%	3.86	57.9	1.4	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
VT		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Offense	13	30.2	23	38.8%	3.52	1.2	20	340	114	226	3.4	44%	55%	40%	38%	16%	.13
VT Defense	11	30.2	31.6	38%	3.86	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	41%	36%	19%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Defense	13	27.2	39.8	35.1%	3.39	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	42%	57%	33%	37%	19%	.1
VT Offense	11	21.4	26	37.6%	2.62	1.4	18	315	112	203	3.2	49%	50%	40%	36%	16%	.1

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
NC State	13	31:23	20.4	36%	40%	7.3	57.8	1.2	1.7	6.5	2.2	2	31.6
Virginia Tech	11	29:09	17.5	31%	43%	7.3	57.9	1.4	1.3	6.7	2.1	3	28.4

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Offense	13	44%	40%	34	113.8	3.4	8	.02	2.81	71%	10%	0.82
VT Defense	11	47%	41%	-	-	-	-	.13	2.83	68%	12%	1.08

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Defense	13	42%	33%	-	-	-	-	.01	2.51	53%	11%	1.04
VT Offense	11	49%	40%	35.3	111.8	3.2	15	.08	2.95	74%	10%	0.91

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Offense	13	55%	38%	20.7	36.2	226.1	6.2	10.9	23	8	.25	1.5	35%	27%	.32	6%	2.1
VT Defense	11	53%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	4	.25	1.7	36%	27%	.32	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Defense	13	57%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	19	.2	1.6	38%	30%	.36	8%	2
VT Offense	11	50%	36%	18.5	31.5	202.9	6.5	11	9	9	.15	1.5	35%	27%	.31	6%	2.2

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 5.66 #34
NC State's Offense Rating: 14.92 #83
NC State's Defense Rating: 3.52 #17
2023 Talent Rating: 700.85 #38
Blue Chip Ratio: 18% #34
NC State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
NC State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #30
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #69
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.9 #16

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: 5.66 Virginia Tech: 5.605

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 9.4 Virginia Tech: 4.7

Virginia Tech's Power Ratings
Virginia Tech's Power Rating: 5.605 #54
Virginia Tech's Offense Rating: 17.22 #58
Virginia Tech's Defense Rating: 9.01 #61
2023 Talent Rating: 638.89 #59
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #57
Virginia Tech's 2023 Expected Record: 7.20 - 5.80
Virginia Tech's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.7 #46
Virginia Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Virginia Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #44

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

NC State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.8

NC State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
NC State 25
Virginia Tech 23

Projected Total Points: 49

Virginia Tech Scoring
Offense: 21.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 26
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 31.6

Virginia Tech's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/27	NC State	21	Virginia Tech	23	NC State -10	Virginia Tech	57.5	Under
2023	11/18	Virginia Tech	28	NC State	35	Virginia Tech -2.5	NC State	40.5	Over
2022	10/27	NC State	22	Virginia Tech	21	NC State -13	Virginia Tech	39.0	Over
2020	09/26	Virginia Tech	45	NC State	24	Virginia Tech -6.5	Virginia Tech	57.5	Over
2015	10/09	Virginia Tech	28	NC State	13	Virginia Tech -2	Virginia Tech	44.0	Under
2010	10/02	NC State	30	Virginia Tech	41
2009	11/21	Virginia Tech	38	NC State	10
2005	09/04	NC State	16	Virginia Tech	20
2004	09/25	Virginia Tech	16	NC State	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Virginia Tech	6	4	3 Overs
NC State	3	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 5	2 - 3	2 - 3	0 - 0
Road Teams	5 - 4	3 - 2	0 - 0	3 - 2

(#34) NCST at (#54) VT

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NCST	VT
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#34	#54
SP+SP+	#30	#46
Perf GradeGrade	#81	#74
OffenseOff	#110	#92
DefenseDef	#44	#76
Spec TeamsST	#57	#45
TalentTal	#38	#59
Blue ChipsBC%	#34	#57

NC State Injury Report

Virginia Tech Injury Report

NC State on Offense


CategoryCat	NCST Off	VT Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#110	#76
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#83	#61
SP+SP+	#69	#44
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

NC State Run Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	VT Def
Run GameRun	#93	#110
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#91	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#94

NC State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	VT Def
Pass GamePass	#78	#77
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#72	#9
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Virginia Tech on Offense


CategoryCat	VT Off	NCST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#92	#44
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#58	#17
SP+SP+	#65	#16
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Virginia Tech Run Game


CategoryCat	VT Off	NCST Def
Run GameRun	#49	#14
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#109	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#10

Virginia Tech Pass Game


CategoryCat	VT Off	NCST Def
Pass GamePass	#89	#93
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#86	#96
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
VT 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'23 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

NCST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Lane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 12
Virginia Tech -2.5 (40.5)
NC State won at Virginia Tech this year (35-28)

Previous Matchups
Virginia Tech beat NC State last year (23-21)
NC State beat Virginia Tech in 2023 (35-28)

NCST's OC Robert Anae (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brennan Armstrong (Tr)	160	262	61%	1783	11	7	6.8
MJ Morris	63	113	56%	719	7	5	6.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brennan Armstrong (Tr)	143	665	7	4.7	43
Kevin Concepcion	41	320	0	7.8	65
Kendrick Raphael	67	311	1	4.6	31
Delbert Mimms III	96	282	8	2.9	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kevin Concepcion	71	839	10	11.8	72
Keyon Lesane	28	247	0	8.8	38
Dacari Collins (Tr)	14	210	2	15.0	38
Brad Rozner	18	208	2	11.6	21

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC Tony Gibson (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Jaylon Scott	75	6	2	10	3
Sean Brown	66	5	2	4	5
Devan Boykin	54	3	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davin Vann	43	8	7	11	1
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Red Hibbler	12	6	6	3	1
Brandon Cleveland	28	5	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aydan White	37	2	1	0	10
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Sean Brown	66	5	2	4	5

VT's OC Tyler Bowen (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kyron Drones (Tr)	166	285	58%	2084	17	3	7.3
Grant Wells	37	68	54%	519	5	2	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bhayshul Tuten (Tr)	173	863	10	5.0	49
Kyron Drones (Tr)	166	818	5	4.9	59
Malachi Thomas	83	381	2	4.6	35
Grant Wells	17	75	1	4.4	60

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Da'Quan Felton (Tr)	38	667	8	17.6	84
Jaylin Lane (Tr)	41	538	6	13.1	75
Dae'Quan Wright	28	366	0	13.1	39
Stephen Gosnell	22	347	3	15.8	44

View Virginia Tech's Full Roster

VT's DC Chris Marve (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keli Lawson	76	7	3	4	6
Alan Tisdale	71	4	2	2	2
Jalen Stroman	55	2	0	1	2
Mansoor Delane	52	3	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Antwuan Powell	38	14	10	6	0
Cole Nelson	27	8	5	1	0
Pheldarius Payne	28	9	4	5	1
Norell Pollard	23	8	4	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dorian Strong	24	1	0	0	8
Keli Lawson	76	7	3	4	6
Derrick Canteen (Tr)	34	2	0	0	5