NC State at Virginia - 2023 Matchup Preview

Friday, September 22nd 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
NC State -8.5 (47.5) (0) Open: 0.0
NC State 24 - Virginia: 21 (ACC)

Wolfpack (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (74 - 55)
Avg Score : 26 - 21 (22 - 19 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UVA is playing their 4th straight game
NCST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: NC State -13 (SP+ NCST -19.5)
Projected Score: NCST: 31 - UVA: 18 (49)
NCST Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
NCST Travel: 155 miles

Cavaliers (3 - 9) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 23 - 34 (25 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.7 - 8.3 (#125)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NCST Players
UVA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

NC State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	NC State at UConn	-14.5	47.5	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/9	NC State vs Notre Dame	+7.0	49.5	L 24 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/16	NC State vs VMI	-42.5	51.0	W 45 - 7	O	N
Fri 9/22	NC State at Virginia	-8.5	47.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Fri 9/29	NC State vs Louisville	+3.5	56.5	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/7	NC State vs Marshall	-6.5	44.0	W 48 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/14	NC State at Duke	+3.5	44.0	L 3 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	NC State vs Clemson	+9.5	44.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/4	NC State vs Miami	+6.5	44.0	W 20 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/11	NC State at Wake Forest	+0.5	42.5	W 26 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/18	NC State at Virginia Tech	+2.5	40.5	W 35 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/25	NC State vs North Carolina	+2.0	55.0	W 39 - 20	O	Y
Thu 12/28	NC State vs Kansas State	+3.0	48.5	L 19 - 28	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for NC State's Schedule

Virginia's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Virginia vs Tennessee	+27.5	56.0	L 13 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/9	Virginia vs James Madison	+6.0	40.0	L 35 - 36	O	Y
Fri 9/15	Virginia at Maryland	+16.5	48.5	L 14 - 42	O	N
Fri 9/22	Virginia vs NC State	+8.5	47.5	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Virginia at Boston College	+5.0	52.5	L 24 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Virginia vs William & Mary	-10.0	42.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Virginia at North Carolina	+24.0	58.0	W 31 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Virginia at Miami	+18.5	48.0	L 26 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Virginia vs Georgia Tech	-2.0	57.5	L 17 - 45	O	N
Thu 11/9	Virginia at Louisville	+20.5	49.5	L 24 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Virginia vs Duke	+4.0	48.5	W 30 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Virginia vs Virginia Tech	+2.5	52.5	L 17 - 55	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST	#89 (.15)	40% (100)	26.2	40% (96)	3.11 (68)	157	39% (96)	194	4.11 (47)	#16 (.1)	39% (34)	20.8	39% (34)	40% (40)	3.77 (66)	46.3	1.2	1.9
UVA	#88 (.15)	41% (84)	23.3	42% (82)	3 (89)	118	41% (76)	251	3.68 (85)	#117 (.26)	45% (113)	33.8	48% (118)	43% (90)	4.15 (103)	55.3	1.7	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST	#26 (.25)	45% (36)		44% (68)	3.24 (36)	130	47% (20)	215	3.97 (61)	#86 (.19)	41% (59)		39% (31)	43% (87)	3.78 (67)	45	1.7	1.4
UVA	#102 (.13)	40% (103)		43% (77)	3.29 (25)	133	37% (113)	229	3.47 (106)	#116 (.27)	43% (80)		44% (77)	42% (77)	4.04 (94)	45.3	1.6	1.3

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Offense	13	26.2	22.4	39.5%	4.11	1.2	19	350	157	194	4.3	52%	48%	40%	39%	18%	.15
UVA Defense	12	33.8	33.3	45.2%	4.15	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	48%	43%	15%	.26

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Defense	13	20.8	18.6	38.8%	3.77	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	44%	54%	39%	40%	19%	.1
UVA Offense	12	23.3	24.5	41%	3.68	1.7	21	369	118	251	3.1	49%	50%	42%	41%	19%	.15

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
NC State	13	32:27	18.5	40%	60%	5.8	46.3	1.2	1.9	5.5	2.5	3	30.1
Virginia	12	31:24	21	36%	60%	6.5	55.3	1.7	1.2	4.8	0.9	1	28.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Offense	13	52% (52)	40% (96)	36.8	156.6	4.3	19 (69)	.13 (83)	3.11 (68)	80% (20)	12% (106)	0.93 (100)
UVA Defense	12	51% (87)	48% (118)	-	-	-	-	.26 (124)	3.36 (116)	76% (92)	9% (108)	1.03 (84)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Defense	13	44% (11)	39% (34)	-	-	-	-	.12 (55)	2.88 (31)	66% (27)	11% (32)	1.07 (103)
UVA Offense	12	49% (76)	42% (82)	37.8	117.9	3.1	12 (116)	.11 (91)	3 (89)	70% (98)	13% (123)	0.89 (113)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Offense	13	48% (80)	39% (96)	17.2	29.2	193.8	6.7	11.3	19 (78)	12 (85)	.2 (95)	1.6 (67)	34% (102)	27% (101)	.27 (90)	6% (72)	2 (92)
UVA Defense	12	48% (48)	43% (90)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.32 (97)	1.6 (54)	28% (127)	30% (62)	.33 (76)	6% (57)	2.1 (85)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Defense	13	54% (122)	40% (40)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.14 (15)	1.5 (28)	36% (17)	29% (50)	.2 (19)	7% (25)	1.9 (16)
UVA Offense	12	50% (62)	41% (76)	20.7	33	250.8	7.6	12.1	19 (78)	14 (107)	.29 (67)	1.6 (66)	32% (83)	29% (79)	.21 (105)	6% (79)	1.8 (126)

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 5.66 #34
NC State's Offense Rating: 14.92 #83
NC State's Defense Rating: 3.52 #17
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 18% #34
NC State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
NC State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #30
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #69
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.9 #16

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: 5.66 Virginia: -5.385

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 9.4 Virginia: -10.3

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: -5.385 #93
Virginia's Offense Rating: 14.69 #84
Virginia's Defense Rating: 14.60 #114
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #59
Virginia's 2023 Expected Record: 3.70 - 8.30
Virginia's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.3 #106
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #95
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #99

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

NC State Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.4
Defense: 20.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.6

NC State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
NC State 31
Virginia 18

Total Points: 49

Virginia Scoring
Offense: 23.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.5
Defense: 33.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 33.3

Virginia's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/06	NC State	35	Virginia	31	NC State	NC State -3.0	NC State	53.0	Over
2023	09/22	Virginia	21	NC State	24	NC State	NC State -8.5	Virginia	47.5	Under
2020	10/10	Virginia	21	NC State	38	NC State	Virginia -7	NC State	59.0	Push
2018	09/29	NC State	35	Virginia	21	NC State	NC State -5.5	NC State	52.5	Over
2012	11/03	NC State	6	Virginia	33	Virginia
2011	10/22	Virginia	14	NC State	28	NC State
2007	10/27	NC State	29	Virginia	24	NC State
2006	10/28	Virginia	14	NC State	7	Virginia
2003	11/01	NC State	51	Virginia	37	NC State
2002	11/16	Virginia	14	NC State	9	Virginia
2001	10/27	NC State	24	Virginia	0	NC State
2000	11/17	Virginia	24	NC State	17	Virginia

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Virginia	4	1	2 Overs
NC State	8	3	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 4	3 - 1	2 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	4 - 8	1 - 3	0 - 1	1 - 2

(#34) NC State Info
Power Rating: 5.66 #34
Offense Rating: 14.92 #83
Defense Rating: 3.52 #17
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #30
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #69
Defense SP+ Rating: 18.9 #16
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 18% #34
Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60

NC State has won 1 straight
NC State has won 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 4 - 1 (2 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

NC State Highlights
NC State Defense Sacks the QB a lot

NC State Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#42)
NC State Secondary is very good (#80)
NC State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

NC State Deficiencies
NC State offense is really bad (#67)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	UVA	NCST
OverallOver	#97	#66
OffenseOff	#83	#93
DefenseDef	#101	#36
Special TeamsST	#90	#47
PassingPass	#45	#64
RushingRush	#82	#66
Run BlockRBLK	#61	#68
Pass BlockPBLK	#116	#62
Route RunningWR Rt	#46	#103
TacklingTkl	#83	#9
Run DefenseR Def	#110	#12
Pass Rush DefPRush	#94	#75
Coverage DefCov	#78	#75

Rematch from Week 4
NC State 8.5 (47.5)
NC State won at Virginia this year (24-21)

Previous Matchups
NC State beat Virginia in 2023 (24-21)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scott Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: NCST | UVA
Depth Chart: NCST | UVA
Rosters: NCST | UVA

(#93) Virginia Info
Power Rating: -5.385 #93
Offense Rating: 14.69 #84
Defense Rating: 14.60 #114
Overall SP+ Rating: -10.3 #106
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #95
Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #99
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #59
Expected Record: 3.70 - 8.30

Virginia has lost 3 straight
Virginia has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 4 (4 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Virginia Highlights

Virginia Deficiencies
Virginia Can Not Run the Ball (#4)
Virginia throws a Lot of Interceptions (#60)
Virginia Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Virginia Defense Gives up a Lot of Points at Home
Virginia does not Sack the QB (#97)
Virginia has a bad defense (#51)
Virginia has a bad defensive line (#63)
Virginia has a bad red zone defense (#104)

NC State's OC Robert Anae

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brennan Armstrong (Tr)	160	262	61%	1783	11	7	6.8
MJ Morris	63	113	56%	719	7	5	6.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brennan Armstrong (Tr)	143	665	7	4.7	43
Kevin Concepcion	41	320	0	7.8	65
Kendrick Raphael	67	311	1	4.6	31
Delbert Mimms III	96	282	8	2.9	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kevin Concepcion	71	839	10	11.8	72
Keyon Lesane	28	247	0	8.8	38
Dacari Collins (Tr)	14	210	2	15.0	38
Brad Rozner	18	208	2	11.6	21

View NC State's Full Roster

NC State's DC Tony Gibson

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Jaylon Scott	75	6	2	10	3
Sean Brown	66	5	2	4	5
Devan Boykin	54	3	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davin Vann	43	8	7	11	1
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Red Hibbler	12	6	6	3	1
Brandon Cleveland	28	5	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aydan White	37	2	1	0	10
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Sean Brown	66	5	2	4	5

Virginia's OC Des Kitchings

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Anthony Colandrea	154	246	63%	1958	13	9	8.0
Tony Muskett (Tr)	93	147	63%	1031	6	5	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Perris Jones	76	393	2	5.2	43
Kobe Pace (Tr)	125	382	1	3.1	22
Mike Hollins	80	274	7	3.4	22
Anthony Colandrea	73	225	0	3.1	30

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Washington	110	1426	9	13.0	64
Malachi Fields	58	811	5	14.0	39
Kobe Pace (Tr)	19	176	3	9.3	75
Sackett Wood Jr.	9	141	0	15.7	28

View Virginia's Full Roster

Virginia's DC John Rudzinski

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jonas Sanker	107	4	0	1	11
James Jackson	80	4	1	7	5
Kamren Robinson	71	5	1	4	1
Coen King	60	3	0	1	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kameron Butler	22	5	3	1	0
Ben Smiley III	15	4	2	1	1
Paul Akere	15	3	1	4	0
Kamren Robinson	71	5	1	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jonas Sanker	107	4	1	11
Dre Walker	11	0	0	5
Coen King	60	3	1	5