NC State at Virginia - 2023 Matchup Preview

NC State Wolfpack at Virginia Cavaliers

Friday, September 22nd 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
NC State -8.5 (47.5) (0) Open: 0.0
NC State 24 - Virginia: 21 (ACC)

Wolfpack (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (74 - 55)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (23 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UVA is playing their 4th straight game
NCST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: NC State -13 (SP+ NCST -19.5)
Projected Score: NCST: 33 - UVA: 20 (52)
NCST Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
NCST Travel: 155 miles

Cavaliers (3 - 9) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (36 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.7 - 8.3 (#125)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NCST Players
UVA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

NC State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	NC State at UConn	-14.5	47.5	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/9	NC State vs Notre Dame	+7.0	49.5	L 24 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/16	NC State vs VMI	-42.5	51.0	W 45 - 7	O	N
Fri 9/22	NC State at Virginia	-8.5	47.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Fri 9/29	NC State vs Louisville	+3.5	56.5	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/7	NC State vs Marshall	-6.5	44.0	W 48 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/14	NC State at Duke	+3.5	44.0	L 3 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	NC State vs Clemson	+9.5	44.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/4	NC State vs Miami	+6.5	44.0	W 20 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/11	NC State at Wake Forest	+0.5	42.5	W 26 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/18	NC State at Virginia Tech	+2.5	40.5	W 35 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/25	NC State vs North Carolina	+2.0	55.0	W 39 - 20	O	Y
Thu 12/28	NC State vs Kansas State	+3.0	48.5	L 19 - 28	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for NC State's Schedule

Virginia's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Virginia vs Tennessee	+27.5	56.0	L 13 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/9	Virginia vs James Madison	+6.0	40.0	L 35 - 36	O	Y
Fri 9/15	Virginia at Maryland	+16.5	48.5	L 14 - 42	O	N
Fri 9/22	Virginia vs NC State	+8.5	47.5	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Virginia at Boston College	+5.0	52.5	L 24 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Virginia vs William & Mary	-10.0	42.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Virginia at North Carolina	+24.0	58.0	W 31 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Virginia at Miami	+18.5	48.0	L 26 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Virginia vs Georgia Tech	-2.0	57.5	L 17 - 45	O	N
Thu 11/9	Virginia at Louisville	+20.5	49.5	L 24 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Virginia vs Duke	+4.0	48.5	W 30 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Virginia vs Virginia Tech	+2.5	52.5	L 17 - 55	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST	.13	39%	30.2	40%	2.81	114	38%	226	3.52	.1	35%	27.2	33%	37%	3.39	57.8	1.2	1.7
UVA	.08	40%	30.8	44%	3.2	123	37%	221	2.81	.13	41%	19.6	40%	41%	3.54	62.2	2.2	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UVA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Offense	13	30.2	23	38.8%	3.52	1.2	20	340	114	226	3.4	44%	55%	40%	38%	16%	.13
UVA Defense	10	19.6	17.7	40.8%	3.54	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	40%	41%	15%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Defense	13	27.2	39.8	35.1%	3.39	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	42%	57%	33%	37%	19%	.1
UVA Offense	10	30.8	36.4	39.7%	2.81	2.2	19	344	123	221	3.7	45%	54%	44%	37%	22%	.08

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
NC State	13	31:23	20.4	36%	40%	7.3	57.8	1.2	1.7	6.5	2.2	2	31.6
Virginia	10	27:30	19	32%	39%	7	62.2	2.2	1.7	5.1	3	0	28.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Offense	13	44%	40%	34	113.8	3.4	8	.02	2.81	71%	10%	0.82
UVA Defense	10	51%	40%	-	-	-	-	.08	3.26	67%	9%	0.87

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Defense	13	42%	33%	-	-	-	-	.01	2.51	53%	11%	1.04
UVA Offense	10	45%	44%	32.9	123	3.7	13	.17	3.2	72%	12%	1.01

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Offense	13	55%	38%	20.7	36.2	226.1	6.2	10.9	23	8	.25	1.5	35%	27%	.32	6%	2.1
UVA Defense	10	49%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	5	.19	1.4	30%	29%	.31	6%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Defense	13	57%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	19	.2	1.6	38%	30%	.36	8%	2
UVA Offense	10	54%	37%	18.5	34.2	221	6.5	12	7	12	.04	1.5	36%	33%	.42	10%	2

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 5.66 #34
NC State's Offense Rating: 14.92 #83
NC State's Defense Rating: 3.52 #17
2023 Talent Rating: 700.85 #38
Blue Chip Ratio: 18% #34
NC State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
NC State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #30
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #69
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.9 #16

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: 5.66 Virginia: -5.385

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 9.4 Virginia: -10.3

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: -5.385 #93
Virginia's Offense Rating: 14.69 #84
Virginia's Defense Rating: 14.60 #114
2023 Talent Rating: 622.70 #66
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #59
Virginia's 2023 Expected Record: 3.70 - 8.30
Virginia's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.3 #106
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #95
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #99

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

NC State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.8

NC State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
NC State 33
Virginia 20

Projected Total Points: 52

Virginia Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.4
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

Virginia's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/06	NC State	35	Virginia	31	NC State -3.0	NC State	53.0	Over
2023	09/22	Virginia	21	NC State	24	NC State -8.5	Virginia	47.5	Under
2020	10/10	Virginia	21	NC State	38	Virginia -7	NC State	59.0	Push
2018	09/29	NC State	35	Virginia	21	NC State -5.5	NC State	52.5	Over
2012	11/03	NC State	6	Virginia	33
2011	10/22	Virginia	14	NC State	28
2007	10/27	NC State	29	Virginia	24
2006	10/28	Virginia	14	NC State	7
2003	11/01	NC State	51	Virginia	37
2002	11/16	Virginia	14	NC State	9
2001	10/27	NC State	24	Virginia	0
2000	11/17	Virginia	24	NC State	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Virginia	4	1	2 Overs
NC State	8	3	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 4	3 - 1	2 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	4 - 8	1 - 3	0 - 1	1 - 2

(#34) NCST at (#93) UVA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NCST	UVA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#34	#93
SP+SP+	#30	#106
Perf GradeGrade	#81	#116
OffenseOff	#110	#97
DefenseDef	#44	#128
Spec TeamsST	#57	#112
TalentTal	#38	#66
Blue ChipsBC%	#34	#59

NC State Injury Report

Virginia Injury Report

NC State on Offense


CategoryCat	NCST Off	UVA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#110	#128
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#83	#114
SP+SP+	#69	#99
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

NC State Run Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	UVA Def
Run GameRun	#93	#129
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#91	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#96

NC State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	UVA Def
Pass GamePass	#78	#97
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#72	#127
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Virginia on Offense


CategoryCat	UVA Off	NCST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#97	#44
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#84	#17
SP+SP+	#95	#16
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Virginia Run Game


CategoryCat	UVA Off	NCST Def
Run GameRun	#115	#14
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#79	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#10

Virginia Pass Game


CategoryCat	UVA Off	NCST Def
Pass GamePass	#58	#93
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#133	#96
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UVA 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

NCST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scott Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
NC State 8.5 (47.5)
NC State won at Virginia this year (24-21)

Previous Matchups
NC State beat Virginia last year (35-31)
NC State beat Virginia in 2023 (24-21)

NCST's OC Robert Anae (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brennan Armstrong (Tr)	160	262	61%	1783	11	7	6.8
MJ Morris	63	113	56%	719	7	5	6.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brennan Armstrong (Tr)	143	665	7	4.7	43
Kevin Concepcion	41	320	0	7.8	65
Kendrick Raphael	67	311	1	4.6	31
Delbert Mimms III	96	282	8	2.9	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kevin Concepcion	71	839	10	11.8	72
Keyon Lesane	28	247	0	8.8	38
Dacari Collins (Tr)	14	210	2	15.0	38
Brad Rozner	18	208	2	11.6	21

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC Tony Gibson (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Jaylon Scott	75	6	2	10	3
Sean Brown	66	5	2	4	5
Devan Boykin	54	3	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davin Vann	43	8	7	11	1
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Red Hibbler	12	6	6	3	1
Brandon Cleveland	28	5	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aydan White	37	2	1	0	10
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Sean Brown	66	5	2	4	5

UVA's OC Des Kitchings (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Anthony Colandrea	154	246	63%	1958	13	9	8.0
Tony Muskett (Tr)	93	147	63%	1031	6	5	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Perris Jones	76	393	2	5.2	43
Kobe Pace (Tr)	125	382	1	3.1	22
Mike Hollins	80	274	7	3.4	22
Anthony Colandrea	73	225	0	3.1	30

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Washington	110	1426	9	13.0	64
Malachi Fields	58	811	5	14.0	39
Kobe Pace (Tr)	19	176	3	9.3	75
Sackett Wood Jr.	9	141	0	15.7	28

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC John Rudzinski (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jonas Sanker	107	4	0	1	11
James Jackson	80	4	1	7	5
Kamren Robinson	71	5	1	4	1
Coen King	60	3	0	1	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kameron Butler	22	5	3	1	0
Ben Smiley III	15	4	2	1	1
Paul Akere	15	3	1	4	0
Kamren Robinson	71	5	1	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jonas Sanker	107	4	1	11
Dre Walker	11	0	0	5
Coen King	60	3	1	5