UCF at Kansas State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (8:00 PM EDT)
Kansas State -6 (53.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Kansas State 44 - UCF: 31 (Big 12)

Knights (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (21 - 9)
Avg Score : 31 - 26 (25 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

KSU is playing their 4th straight game
UCF is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Kansas State -12 (SP+ KSU -11)
Projected Score: UCF: 20 - KSU: 32 (53)
KSU Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
UCF Travel: 1144 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Wildcats (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Chris Klieman (32 - 21)
Avg Score : 37 - 21 (44 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 3.8 (#22)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UCF Players
KSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UCF's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	UCF vs Kent State	-35.0	54.0	W 56 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/9	UCF at Boise State	-3.0	58.5	W 18 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/16	UCF vs Villanova	-26.5	54.0	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/23	UCF at Kansas State	+6.0	53.5	L 31 - 44	O	N
Sat 9/30	UCF vs Baylor	-8.0	56.5	L 35 - 36	O	N
Sat 10/7	UCF at Kansas	-2.0	65.0	L 22 - 51	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	UCF at Oklahoma	+17.0	67.5	L 29 - 31	U	Y
Sat 10/28	UCF vs West Virginia	-6.5	59.5	L 28 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/4	UCF at Cincinnati	-3.5	59.5	W 28 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/11	UCF vs Oklahoma State	+2.5	63.5	W 45 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/18	UCF at Texas Tech	+2.0	59.0	L 23 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/25	UCF vs Houston	-15.5	61.5	W 27 - 13	U	N
Fri 12/22	UCF vs Georgia Tech	-6.0	66.5	L 17 - 30	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UCF's Schedule

Kansas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Kansas State vs Southeast Missouri State	-28.5	56.5	W 45 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Kansas State vs Troy	-15.0	50.0	W 42 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Kansas State at Missouri	-3.5	48.0	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/23	Kansas State vs UCF	-6.0	53.5	W 44 - 31	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/6	Kansas State at Oklahoma State	-11.5	53.5	L 21 - 29	U	N
Sat 10/14	Kansas State at Texas Tech	+1.0	57.0	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Kansas State vs TCU	-5.5	60.0	W 41 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Kansas State vs Houston	-17.5	61.0	W 41 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Kansas State at Texas	+4.0	49.5	L 30 - 33	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Kansas State vs Baylor	-20.5	55.5	W 59 - 25	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Kansas State at Kansas	-7.0	60.5	W 31 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/25	Kansas State vs Iowa State	-9.5	46.0	L 35 - 42	O	N
Thu 12/28	Kansas State vs NC State	-3.0	48.5	W 28 - 19	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF	#16 (.31)	45% (41)	31.3	47% (27)	3.28 (36)	228	43% (57)	259	3.76 (80)	#58 (.16)	47% (125)	25.8	51% (128)	43% (80)	3.79 (69)	50.1	1.4	1.2
KSU	#34 (.28)	47% (18)	37.1	50% (14)	3.33 (28)	205	44% (46)	241	5.11 (1)	#46 (.15)	38% (24)	21	38% (29)	39% (27)	2.98 (12)	43.7	0.9	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF	#58 (.21)	46% (28)		52% (8)	3.62 (2)	248	38% (103)	200	3.75 (86)	#63 (.16)	40% (45)		37% (12)	42% (84)	4.37 (118)	54.4	1.6	0.9
KSU	#17 (.3)	44% (55)		46% (42)	3.37 (14)	190	42% (68)	196	4.08 (53)	#29 (.11)	36% (6)		34% (4)	38% (32)	3.54 (43)	41.3	1.2	1.1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Offense	13	31.3	25.2	44.9%	3.76	1.4	23	487	228	259	5.6	56%	43%	47%	43%	15%	.31
KSU Defense	13	21	16.3	37.8%	2.98	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	46%	52%	38%	39%	17%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Defense	13	25.8	32	46.6%	3.79	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	51%	43%	12%	.16
KSU Offense	13	37.1	43.9	47.3%	5.11	0.9	24	446	205	241	5	53%	47%	50%	44%	12%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UCF	13	28:52	23.1	49%	57%	6.1	50.1	1.4	1.2	4.2	1.7	0	26.6
Kansas State	13	31:51	23.8	48%	58%	4.8	43.7	0.9	1.8	5.6	1.8	1	30.4

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Offense	13	56% (24)	47% (27)	40.7	228.2	5.6	28 (25)	.24 (19)	3.28 (36)	71% (93)	9% (48)	1.14 (10)
KSU Defense	13	46% (23)	38% (29)	-	-	-	-	.14 (68)	2.82 (25)	61% (12)	11% (47)	1.24 (130)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Defense	13	56% (121)	51% (128)	-	-	-	-	.23 (110)	3.39 (117)	81% (111)	7% (127)	0.99 (62)
KSU Offense	13	53% (43)	50% (14)	40.8	205.2	5	32 (10)	.27 (13)	3.33 (28)	75% (60)	6% (5)	0.99 (75)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Offense	13	43% (111)	43% (57)	17.6	28.2	258.8	9.2	14.7	24 (41)	11 (68)	.48 (12)	1.9 (5)	30% (30)	37% (15)	.52 (17)	6% (51)	2.2 (27)
KSU Defense	13	52% (107)	39% (27)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.22 (38)	1.7 (95)	35% (24)	27% (23)	.23 (32)	7% (45)	2.2 (101)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Defense	13	43% (11)	43% (80)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.17 (17)	1.4 (4)	29% (120)	34% (113)	.23 (33)	5% (120)	1.7 (1)
KSU Offense	13	47% (88)	44% (46)	19.8	32.8	241.2	7.3	12.2	30 (16)	10 (56)	.31 (60)	1.6 (80)	29% (17)	35% (25)	.46 (31)	6% (50)	2.1 (50)

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 3.43 #46
UCF's Offense Rating: 22.78 #23
UCF's Defense Rating: 11.34 #89
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 8% #53
UCF's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
UCF's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5 #48
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #35
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #54

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF: 3.43 Kansas State: 15.89

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: 4.5 Kansas State: 15.4

Kansas State's Power Ratings
Kansas State's Power Rating: 15.89 #16
Kansas State's Offense Rating: 23.70 #16
Kansas State's Defense Rating: 4.11 #22
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 5 #61
Kansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80
Kansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.4 #15
Kansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.3 #8
Kansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #39

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

UCF Scoring
Offense: 31.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 25.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 32

UCF's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Kansas State 32
UCF 20

Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Kansas State 28
UCF 19

Total Points: 47

Based on Entire Season
Kansas State 35
UCF 23

Total Points: 58

Kansas State Scoring
Offense: 37.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.9
Defense: 21 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.3

Kansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/27	Kansas State	34	UCF	20	Kansas State -5.5	Kansas State	48.5	Over
2023	09/23	Kansas State	44	UCF	31	Kansas State -6	Kansas State	53.5	Over
2010	09/25	Kansas State	17	UCF	13

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Kansas State	3	2	2 Overs
UCF	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 0	2 - 0	2 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 3	0 - 2	0 - 0	0 - 2

(#46) UCF at (#16) KSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UCF	KSU
Power RatePwr	#46	#16
SP+SP+	#48	#15
Perf GradeGrade	#38	#32
OffenseOff	#21	#23
DefenseDef	#87	#68
Spec TeamsST	#109	#69
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#53	#61

UCF Injury Report

Kansas State Injury Report

UCF on Offense


CategoryCat	UCF Off	KSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#21	#68
SuccessSuc	#41	#24
ExplosiveExp	#3	#127
PPAPPA	#16	#46
PowerPwr	#23	#22
SP+SP+	#35	#39
Pts POPPO	#80	#12
HavocHav	#47	#42

UCF Run Game


CategoryCat	UCF Off	KSU Def
Run GameRun	#10	#95
Run SuccessRSuc	#27	#29
Run ExplRExp	#10	#130
PPAExp	#19	#68
Run BlockR Blk	#59	-
OL YdsOLY	#36	#25
Stuff RateStuff	#102	#6
TackleTak	-	#123

UCF Pass Game


CategoryCat	UCF Off	KSU Def
Pass GamePass	#30	#42
Pass SuccessPSuc	#57	#27
Pass ExplPExl	#5	#95
PPAExp	#12	#38
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#14	#114
F7 HavocF7	#48	#47
DB HavocDB	#51	#45

Kansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	KSU Off	UCF Def
Perf GradePerf	#23	#87
SuccessSuc	#18	#125
ExplosiveExp	#98	#7
PPAPPA	#34	#58
PowerPwr	#16	#89
SP+SP+	#8	#54
Pts POPPO	#1	#69
HavocHav	#9	#128

Kansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	KSU Off	UCF Def
Run GameRun	#15	#90
Run SuccessRSuc	#14	#128
Run ExplRExp	#75	#62
PPAExp	#13	#110
Run BlockR Blk	#20	-
OL YdsOLY	#28	#117
Stuff RateStuff	#69	#78
TackleTak	-	#88

Kansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	KSU Off	UCF Def
Pass GamePass	#61	#64
Pass SuccessPSuc	#46	#80
Pass ExplPExl	#80	#4
PPAExp	#60	#17
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#37	#94
F7 HavocF7	#5	#127
DB HavocDB	#50	#120

Program Comparison
KSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

UCF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 80°

Rematch from Week 4
Kansas State -6.0 (53.5)
Kansas State won vs UCF this year (44-31)

Previous Matchups
Kansas State beat UCF in 2023 (44-31)

UCF's OC Darin Hinshaw (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
John Rhys Plumlee	161	256	63%	2271	15	8	8.9
Timmy McClain (Tr)	64	102	63%	1065	9	3	10.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
RJ Harvey	226	1416	16	6.3	92
Johnny Richardson	87	573	1	6.6	79
John Rhys Plumlee	106	505	5	4.8	32
Xavier Townsend	15	163	0	10.9	39

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Javon Baker	52	1139	7	21.9	86
Kobe Hudson	44	900	8	20.5	75
Xavier Townsend	33	325	3	9.8	37
Alec Holler	24	244	2	10.2	38

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC David Gibbs (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jason Johnson	104	6	3	0	1
Walter Yates	68	1	0	0	2
Lee Hunter	57	10	2	1	1
Tre'Mon Morris-Brash	50	16	9	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tre'Mon Morris-Brash	50	16	9	2	1
Malachi Lawrence	24	9	6	5	1
Jason Johnson	104	6	3	0	1
Lee Hunter	57	10	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Corey Thornton	22	0	0	6
Quadric Bullard	28	0	0	3
Brandon Adams	19	1	1	2

KSU's OC Collin Klein (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Will Howard	219	358	61%	2643	24	10	7.4
Avery Johnson	37	66	56%	479	5	0	7.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
DJ Giddens	223	1226	10	5.5	43
Treshaun Ward (Tr)	125	651	5	5.2	52
Will Howard	80	364	9	4.6	70
Avery Johnson	51	288	7	5.6	30

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ben Sinnott	49	676	6	13.8	44
Phillip Brooks III	53	589	5	11.1	40
Jayce Brown	27	437	3	16.2	46
DJ Giddens	29	323	3	11.1	61

View Kansas State's Full Roster

KSU's DC Joe Klanderman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marques Sigle (Tr)	63	3	0	1	9
Austin Moore	63	13	2	1	0
Kobe Savage	57	4	0	2	0
VJ Payne	57	3	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Khalid Duke	19	8	6	2	0
Nate Matlack	15	8	4	2	1
Jevon Banks (Tr)	9	2	2	1	0
Cody Stufflebean	19	3	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marques Sigle (Tr)	63	3	0	1	9
Jacob Parrish	44	3	1	0	9
Will Lee III	42	2	0	0	6