Kansas State at Texas - 2023 Matchup Preview
Kansas State logo   Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Longhorns  Texas logo
Saturday, November 4th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Texas -4 (49.5) (-180)  Open: -9.5
Texas 33 - Kansas State: 30  (Big 12)

 
Wildcats (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Chris Klieman (32 - 21)
Avg Score : 29 - 27 (31 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 3.8 (#22)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TEX 2nd straight Home Game
KSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Texas -9.5  (SP+ TEX -9)
Projected Score: KSU: 21 - TEX: 31 (52)
TEX Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
KSU Travel: 620 miles
Longhorns (12 - 2) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (16 - 12)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (39 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.6 - 3.4 (#8)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Kansas State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Kansas State vs Southeast Missouri State-28.556.5W 45 - 0UY
Sat 9/9 Kansas State vs Troy-15.050.0W 42 - 13OY
Sat 9/16 Kansas State at Missouri-3.548.0L 27 - 30ON
Sat 9/23 Kansas State vs UCF-6.053.5W 44 - 31OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/6 Kansas State at Oklahoma State-11.553.5L 21 - 29UN
Sat 10/14 Kansas State at Texas Tech+1.057.0W 38 - 21OY
Sat 10/21 Kansas State vs TCU-5.560.0W 41 - 3UY
Sat 10/28 Kansas State vs Houston-17.561.0W 41 - 0UY
Sat 11/4 Kansas State at Texas+4.049.5L 30 - 33OY
Sat 11/11 Kansas State vs Baylor-20.555.5W 59 - 25OY
Sat 11/18 Kansas State at Kansas-7.060.5W 31 - 27UN
Sat 11/25 Kansas State vs Iowa State-9.546.0L 35 - 42ON
Thu 12/28 Kansas State vs NC State-3.048.5W 28 - 19UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Kansas State's Schedule
Texas's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Texas vs Rice-35.559.0W 37 - 10UN
Sat 9/9 Texas at Alabama+7.053.0W 34 - 24OY
Sat 9/16 Texas vs Wyoming-31.048.5W 31 - 10UN
Sat 9/23 Texas at Baylor-17.549.5W 38 - 6UY
Sat 9/30 Texas vs Kansas-15.561.0W 40 - 14UY
Sat 10/7 Texas vs Oklahoma-4.062.0L 30 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Texas at Houston-24.060.5W 31 - 24UN
Sat 10/28 Texas vs BYU-20.548.5W 35 - 6UY
Sat 11/4 Texas vs Kansas State-4.049.5W 33 - 30ON
Sat 11/11 Texas at TCU-13.056.0W 29 - 26UN
Sat 11/18 Texas at Iowa State-7.543.5W 26 - 16UY
Fri 11/24 Texas vs Texas Tech-16.553.5W 57 - 7OY
Sat 12/2 Texas vs Oklahoma State-14.055.0W 49 - 21OY
Mon 1/1 Texas vs Washington-3.061.5L 31 - 37ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
KSU.2543%29.444%3.1920842%2114.18.1439%26.742%38%3.5842.90.92.1
TEX.2848%30.551%3.2918846%2414.52.1339%20.337%40%3.0647.31.11.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
KSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TEX0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
KSU Offense1429.430.843%4.180.9204192082115.157%43%44%42%12%.25
TEX Defense1320.31738.5%3.061.3 - - - - - 45%55%37%40%17%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
KSU Defense1426.726.439.3%3.582.1 - - - - - 48%50%42%38%15%.14
TEX Offense1330.538.848.3%4.521.1234291882415.248%52%51%46%12%.28

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Kansas State1431:4320.139%59%5.342.90.92.14.92.1331.3
Texas1327:1822.839%55%6.147.31.11.36.72.1330.4
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
KSU Offense1457%44%40.6208.35.132.213.1966%8%1.1
TEX Defense1345%37% - - - - .052.9181%11%0.97
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
KSU Defense1448%42% - - - - .143.2160%9%0.95
TEX Offense1348%51%36.21885.229.223.2975%8%0.9

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
KSU Offense1443%42%17.327.7210.57.612.2216.291.730%34%.514%2.2
TEX Defense1355%40% - - - - - - 10.211.635%31%.266%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
KSU Defense1450%38% - - - - - - 16.231.732%27%.156%2
TEX Offense1352%46%19.131.2241.47.812.7227.341.528%32%.44%2

Kansas State's Power Ratings
Kansas State's Power Rating: 11.38  #16
Kansas State's Offense Rating: 23.70  #16
Kansas State's Defense Rating: 4.11  #22
2023 Talent Rating: 616.00  #68
Blue Chip Ratio: 5%  #61
Kansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80
Kansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.4  #15
Kansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.3  #8
Kansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.0  #39

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Kansas State: 11.38   Texas: 22.735

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kansas State: 15.4   Texas: 24.6




Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 22.735  #11
Texas's Offense Rating: 19.42  #40
Texas's Defense Rating: 2.04  #15
2023 Talent Rating: 913.24  #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 70  #7
Texas's 2023 Expected Record: 10.60 - 3.40
Texas's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.6  #6
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.5  #6
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.5  #10

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Kansas State Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.8
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.4

Kansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Texas 31
Kansas State 21

Projected Total Points: 52
Texas Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Texas's 2023 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/04Texas33Kansas State30Texas -4Kansas State49.5Over
202211/05Kansas State27Texas34Texas -3Texas54.5Over
202111/26Texas22Kansas State17Texas -3Texas54.5Under
202012/05Kansas State31Texas69Texas -7Texas53.5Over
201911/09Texas27Kansas State24Texas -7.5Kansas State57.5Under
201809/29Kansas State14Texas19Texas -8.5Kansas State48.5Under
201710/07Texas40Kansas State34Texas -5.5Texas47.0Over
201610/22Kansas State24Texas21Kansas State -3Push54.0Under
201510/24Texas23Kansas State9Texas -3.5Texas46.5Under
201410/25Kansas State23Texas0Kansas State -13Kansas State0
201309/21Texas31Kansas State21Texas -7Texas0
201212/01Kansas State42Texas24
201111/19Texas13Kansas State17
201011/06Kansas State39Texas14
200709/29Texas21Kansas State41
200611/11Kansas State45Texas42
200310/04Texas24Kansas State20
200210/19Kansas State14Texas17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas1164 Overs
Kansas State745 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 66 - 45 - 21 - 2
Road Teams6 - 124 - 62 - 12 - 5

(#16) KSU at (#11) TEX
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatKSUTEX
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #16 #11
SP+SP+ #15 #6
Perf GradeGrade #32 #10
OffenseOff #23 #17
DefenseDef #68 #17
Spec TeamsST #69 #4
TalentTal #68 #6
Blue ChipsBC% #61 #7
Kansas State on Offense
CategoryCat
KSU OffTEX Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #23 #17
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #16 #15
SP+SP+ #8 #10
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Kansas State Run Game
CategoryCat
KSU OffTEX Def
Run GameRun #15 #7
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #20 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #78
Kansas State Pass Game
CategoryCat
KSU OffTEX Def
Pass GamePass #61 #61
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #37 #16
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Texas on Offense
CategoryCatTEX OffKSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #17 #68
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #40 #22
SP+SP+ #6 #39
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Texas Run Game
CategoryCat
TEX OffKSU Def
Run GameRun #25 #95
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #56 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #123
Texas Pass Game
CategoryCatTEX OffKSU Def
Pass GamePass #20 #42
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #3 #114
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
TEX 5 Year Profile: Improving Top 25 Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

KSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 10
Texas -4.0 (49.5)
Texas won vs Kansas State this year (33-30)

Previous Matchups
Texas beat Kansas State in 2023 (33-30)

  
KSU's OC Collin Klein (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Will Howard21935861%264324107.4
Avery Johnson376656%479507.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DJ Giddens2231226105.543
Treshaun Ward (Tr)12565155.252
Will Howard8036494.670
Avery Johnson5128875.630
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ben Sinnott49676613.844
Phillip Brooks III53589511.140
Jayce Brown27437316.246
DJ Giddens29323311.161

View Kansas State's Full Roster

KSU's DC Joe Klanderman (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marques Sigle (Tr)633019
Austin Moore6313210
Kobe Savage574020
VJ Payne573003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khalid Duke198620
Nate Matlack158421
Jevon Banks (Tr)92210
Cody Stufflebean193200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marques Sigle (Tr)633019
Jacob Parrish443109
Will Lee III422006

TEX's OC Kyle Flood (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Quinn Ewers27239469%34792268.8
Maalik Murphy407156%477336.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jonathon Brooks1871139106.167
CJ Baxter Jr.13865954.854
Jaydon Blue6539836.169
Keilan Robinson12134311.257
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Xavier Worthy751014513.554
Adonai Mitchell (Tr)558451115.462
Ja'Tavion Sanders45682215.250
Jordan Whittington42505112.041

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Jeff Choate (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylan Ford9611162
Anthony Hill Jr.668532
Jahdae Barron554005
Michael Taaffe453012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Anthony Hill Jr.668532
Ethan Burke399520
Byron Murphy II268560
Barryn Sorrell3443110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jerrin Thompson371007
Terrance Brooks200005
Jahdae Barron554005