TCU at Kansas State - 2023 Matchup Preview
TCU logo   TCU Horned Frogs at Kansas State Wildcats  Kansas State logo
Saturday, October 21st 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Kansas State -5.5 (60.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Kansas State 41 - TCU: 3  (Big 12)

 
Horned Frogs (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (15 - 3)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (26 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#71)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TCU is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: Kansas State -10.5  (SP+ KSU -8)
Projected Score: TCU: 24 - KSU: 34 (58)
KSU Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
TCU Travel: 451 miles
Wildcats (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Chris Klieman (32 - 21)
Avg Score : 29 - 27 (30 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 3.8 (#22)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
TCU's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 TCU vs Colorado-20.559.5L 42 - 45ON
Sat 9/9 TCU vs Nicholls-41.559.5W 41 - 6UN
Sat 9/16 TCU at Houston-7.564.0W 36 - 13UY
Sat 9/23 TCU vs SMU-7.063.5W 34 - 17UY
Sat 9/30 TCU vs West Virginia-14.052.0L 21 - 24UN
Sat 10/7 TCU at Iowa State-6.552.5L 14 - 27UN
Sat 10/14 TCU vs BYU-5.052.5W 44 - 11OY
Sat 10/21 TCU at Kansas State+5.560.0L 3 - 41UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/2 TCU at Texas Tech+2.559.5L 28 - 35ON
Sat 11/11 TCU vs Texas+13.056.0L 26 - 29UY
Sat 11/18 TCU vs Baylor-13.062.0W 42 - 17UY
Fri 11/24 TCU at Oklahoma+12.566.5L 45 - 69ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for TCU's Schedule
Kansas State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Kansas State vs Southeast Missouri State-28.556.5W 45 - 0UY
Sat 9/9 Kansas State vs Troy-15.050.0W 42 - 13OY
Sat 9/16 Kansas State at Missouri-3.548.0L 27 - 30ON
Sat 9/23 Kansas State vs UCF-6.053.5W 44 - 31OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/6 Kansas State at Oklahoma State-11.553.5L 21 - 29UN
Sat 10/14 Kansas State at Texas Tech+1.057.0W 38 - 21OY
Sat 10/21 Kansas State vs TCU-5.560.0W 41 - 3UY
Sat 10/28 Kansas State vs Houston-17.561.0W 41 - 0UY
Sat 11/4 Kansas State at Texas+4.049.5L 30 - 33OY
Sat 11/11 Kansas State vs Baylor-20.555.5W 59 - 25OY
Sat 11/18 Kansas State at Kansas-7.060.5W 31 - 27UN
Sat 11/25 Kansas State vs Iowa State-9.546.0L 35 - 42ON
Thu 12/28 Kansas State vs NC State-3.048.5W 28 - 19UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Kansas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TCU.344%30.747%3.1519340%2624.28.1741%25.345%38%4.3649.61.11.5
KSU.2543%29.444%3.1920842%2114.18.1439%26.742%38%3.5842.90.92.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TCU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
KSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TCU Offense1530.725.543.5%4.281.1214551932625.152%48%47%40%13%.3
KSU Defense1426.727.339.3%3.582.1 - - - - - 48%50%42%38%15%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TCU Defense1525.326.241.3%4.361.5 - - - - - 49%51%45%38%16%.17
KSU Offense1429.429.743%4.180.9204192082115.157%43%44%42%12%.25

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
TCU1530:252140%52%4.849.61.11.54.72630.6
Kansas State1431:4320.139%59%5.342.90.92.14.92.1331.3
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TCU Offense1552%47%37.7193.35.137.223.1572%8%1.07
KSU Defense1448%42% - - - - .143.2160%9%0.95
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TCU Defense1549%45% - - - - .182.9972%8%0.98
KSU Offense1457%44%40.6208.35.132.213.1966%8%1.1

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TCU Offense1548%40%19.530.3261.78.713.5338.381.930%32%.455%2.4
KSU Defense1450%38% - - - - - - 16.231.732%27%.156%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TCU Defense1551%38% - - - - - - 16.21.832%27%.37%2.3
KSU Offense1443%42%17.327.7210.57.612.2216.291.730%34%.514%2.2

TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 3.50  #44
TCU's Offense Rating: 20.84  #32
TCU's Defense Rating: 11.76  #97
2023 Talent Rating: 768.25  #19
Blue Chip Ratio: 31%  #24
TCU's 2023 Expected Record: 6.40 - 5.60
TCU's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.5  #40
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5  #27
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.6  #57

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
TCU: 3.50   Kansas State: 15.89

SP+ Ratings Matchup
TCU: 7.5   Kansas State: 15.4




Kansas State's Power Ratings
Kansas State's Power Rating: 15.89  #16
Kansas State's Offense Rating: 23.70  #16
Kansas State's Defense Rating: 4.11  #22
2023 Talent Rating: 616.00  #68
Blue Chip Ratio: 5  #61
Kansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80
Kansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.4  #15
Kansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.3  #8
Kansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.0  #39

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


TCU Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.5
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.2

TCU's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Kansas State 34
TCU 24

Projected Total Points: 58
Kansas State Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.7
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Kansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11Kansas State41TCU28TCU -3Kansas State54.5Over
202310/21Kansas State41TCU3Kansas State -5.5Kansas State60.0Under
202212/03TCU28Kansas State31TCU -1Kansas State60.5Under
202210/22TCU38Kansas State28TCU -3.5TCU54.5Over
202110/30Kansas State31TCU12Kansas State -3.5Kansas State58.5Under
202010/10TCU14Kansas State21TCU -10.5Kansas State49.5Under
201910/19Kansas State24TCU17TCU -4.5Kansas State43.5Under
201811/03TCU14Kansas State13TCU -10Kansas State44.5Under
201710/14Kansas State6TCU26TCU -7.5TCU49.5Under
201612/03TCU6Kansas State30TCU -4.5Kansas State50.0Under
201510/10Kansas State45TCU52TCU -7NA61.5Over
201411/08TCU41Kansas State20TCU -6TCU0
201311/16Kansas State33TCU31Kansas State -10.5TCU0
201211/10TCU10Kansas State23
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kansas State983 Overs
TCU548 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 66 - 64 - 52 - 1
Road Teams6 - 86 - 61 - 25 - 4

(#44) TCU at (#16) KSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTCUKSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #44 #16
SP+SP+ #40 #15
Perf GradeGrade #51 #32
OffenseOff #38 #23
DefenseDef #73 #68
Spec TeamsST #61 #69
TalentTal #19 #68
Blue ChipsBC% #24 #61
TCU on Offense
CategoryCat
TCU OffKSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #38 #68
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #32 #22
SP+SP+ #27 #39
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
TCU Run Game
CategoryCat
TCU OffKSU Def
Run GameRun #41 #95
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #107 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #123
TCU Pass Game
CategoryCat
TCU OffKSU Def
Pass GamePass #44 #42
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #56 #114
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Kansas State on Offense
CategoryCatKSU OffTCU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #23 #73
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #16 #97
SP+SP+ #8 #57
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Kansas State Run Game
CategoryCat
KSU OffTCU Def
Run GameRun #15 #42
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #20 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #75
Kansas State Pass Game
CategoryCatKSU OffTCU Def
Pass GamePass #61 #95
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #37 #119
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
KSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 8
Kansas State -5.5 (60.0)
Kansas State won vs TCU this year (41-3)

Previous Matchups
Kansas State beat TCU last year (41-28)
Kansas State beat TCU in 2023 (41-3)

  
TCU's OC Kendal Briles (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Hoover18629962%22101597.4
Chandler Morris13220265%15281257.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Emani Bailey223120985.474
Chandler Morris4524935.532
Trey Sanders (Tr)4817663.718
Savion Williams116205.614
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Savion Williams41573414.042
John Paul Richardson46536311.759
Jared Wiley47520811.181
Jaylon Robinson (Tr)32397112.429

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Joe Gillespie (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamoi Hodge807372
Namdi Obiazor756432
Shadrach Banks579120
Nook Bradford530005
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Namdi Obiazor756432
Paul Oyewale215310
Jamoi Hodge807372
Caleb Fox254200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josh Newton290005
Nook Bradford530005
Mark Perry522004

KSU's OC Collin Klein (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Will Howard21935861%264324107.4
Avery Johnson376656%479507.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DJ Giddens2231226105.543
Treshaun Ward (Tr)12565155.252
Will Howard8036494.670
Avery Johnson5128875.630
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ben Sinnott49676613.844
Phillip Brooks III53589511.140
Jayce Brown27437316.246
DJ Giddens29323311.161

View Kansas State's Full Roster

KSU's DC Joe Klanderman (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marques Sigle (Tr)633019
Austin Moore6313210
Kobe Savage574020
VJ Payne573003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khalid Duke198620
Nate Matlack158421
Jevon Banks (Tr)92210
Cody Stufflebean193200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marques Sigle (Tr)633019
Jacob Parrish443109
Will Lee III422006