TCU at Kansas State - 2023 Matchup Preview
TCU logo TCU Horned Frogs at Kansas State WildcatsKansas State logo
Saturday, October 21st 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Kansas State -5.5 (60.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Kansas State 41 - TCU: 3  (Big 12)

 
Horned Frogs (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (15 - 3)
Avg Score : 31 - 28 (25 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#71)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TCU is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: Kansas State -10.5   (SP+ KSU -8)

Projected Score: TCU: 25 - KSU: 35 (60)
KSU Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
TCU Travel: 451 miles
Wildcats (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Chris Klieman (32 - 21)
Avg Score : 37 - 21 (44 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 3.8 (#22)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
TCU's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 TCU vs Colorado-20.559.5L 42 - 45ON
Sat 9/9 TCU vs Nicholls-41.559.5W 41 - 6UN
Sat 9/16 TCU at Houston-7.564.0W 36 - 13UY
Sat 9/23 TCU vs SMU-7.063.5W 34 - 17UY
Sat 9/30 TCU vs West Virginia-14.052.0L 21 - 24UN
Sat 10/7 TCU at Iowa State-6.552.5L 14 - 27UN
Sat 10/14 TCU vs BYU-5.052.5W 44 - 11OY
Sat 10/21 TCU at Kansas State+5.560.0L 3 - 41UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/2 TCU at Texas Tech+2.559.5L 28 - 35ON
Sat 11/11 TCU vs Texas+13.056.0L 26 - 29UY
Sat 11/18 TCU vs Baylor-13.062.0W 42 - 17UY
Fri 11/24 TCU at Oklahoma+12.566.5L 45 - 69ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for TCU's Schedule
Kansas State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Kansas State vs Southeast Missouri State-28.556.5W 45 - 0UY
Sat 9/9 Kansas State vs Troy-15.050.0W 42 - 13OY
Sat 9/16 Kansas State at Missouri-3.548.0L 27 - 30ON
Sat 9/23 Kansas State vs UCF-6.053.5W 44 - 31OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/6 Kansas State at Oklahoma State-11.553.5L 21 - 29UN
Sat 10/14 Kansas State at Texas Tech+1.057.0W 38 - 21OY
Sat 10/21 Kansas State vs TCU-5.560.0W 41 - 3UY
Sat 10/28 Kansas State vs Houston-17.561.0W 41 - 0UY
Sat 11/4 Kansas State at Texas+4.049.5L 30 - 33OY
Sat 11/11 Kansas State vs Baylor-20.555.5W 59 - 25OY
Sat 11/18 Kansas State at Kansas-7.060.5W 31 - 27UN
Sat 11/25 Kansas State vs Iowa State-9.546.0L 35 - 42ON
Thu 12/28 Kansas State vs NC State-3.048.5W 28 - 19UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Kansas State's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TCU#25 (.28)47% (16)31.349% (18)3.35 (23)15547% (20)3123.91 (69)#96 (.23)44% (89)27.843% (70)45% (112)3.91 (78)53.61.61
KSU#34 (.28)47% (18)37.150% (14)3.33 (28)20544% (46)2415.11 (1)#46 (.15)38% (24)2138% (29)39% (27)2.98 (12)43.70.91.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TCU#18 (.3)47% (20)45% (53)2.95 (85)10649% (9)2934.46 (20)#82 (.19)42% (67)46% (102)36% (18)3.82 (72)49.71.61.1
KSU#17 (.3)44% (55)46% (42)3.37 (14)19042% (68)1964.08 (53)#29 (.11)36% (6)34% (4)38% (32)3.54 (43)41.31.21.1



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TCU Offense1231.325.247.4%3.911.6254671553124.642%57%49%47%13%.28
KSU Defense132116.337.8%2.981.8 - - - - - 46%52%38%39%17%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TCU Defense1227.83743.6%3.911 - - - - - 51%49%43%45%13%.23
KSU Offense1337.143.947.3%5.110.924446205241553%47%50%44%12%.28

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
TCU1227:212546%50%6.253.61.6151.8229.9
Kansas State1331:5123.848%58%4.843.70.91.85.61.8130.4
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TCU Offense1242% (119)49% (18)33.8154.54.619 (69).22 (29)3.35 (23)79% (26)7% (6)0.96 (93)
KSU Defense1346% (23)38% (29) - - - - .14 (68)2.82 (25)61% (12)11% (47)1.24 (130)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TCU Defense1251% (76)43% (70) - - - - .16 (81)3.16 (82)78% (100)8% (117)1 (72)
KSU Offense1353% (43)50% (14)40.8205.2532 (10).27 (13)3.33 (28)75% (60)6% (5)0.99 (75)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TCU Offense1257% (16)47% (20)26.641.9312.27.511.727 (25)15 (116).4 (27)1.6 (63)31% (54)42% (4).61 (6)7% (94)2 (73)
KSU Defense1352% (107)39% (27) - - - - - - 13 (26).22 (38)1.7 (95)35% (24)27% (23).23 (32)7% (45)2.2 (101)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TCU Defense1249% (59)45% (112) - - - - - - 8 (100).35 (106)1.6 (86)31% (95)35% (122).37 (98)5% (119)2 (34)
KSU Offense1347% (88)44% (46)19.832.8241.27.312.230 (16)10 (56).31 (60)1.6 (80)29% (17)35% (25).46 (31)6% (50)2.1 (50)

TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 3.50 #44
TCU's Offense Rating: 20.84 #32
TCU's Defense Rating: 11.76 #97
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 31% #24
TCU's 2023 Expected Record: 6.40 - 5.60
TCU's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.5 #40
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #27
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #57

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
TCU: 3.50   Kansas State: 15.89

SP+ Ratings Matchup
TCU: 7.5   Kansas State: 15.4




Kansas State's Power Ratings
Kansas State's Power Rating: 15.89 #16
Kansas State's Offense Rating: 23.70 #16
Kansas State's Defense Rating: 4.11 #22
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 5 #61
Kansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80
Kansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.4 #15
Kansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.3 #8
Kansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #39

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


TCU Scoring
Offense: 31.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 27.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 37

TCU's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Kansas State 35
TCU 25


Total Points: 60

Kansas State Scoring
Offense: 37.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.9
Defense: 21 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.3

Kansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/21Kansas State41TCU3Kansas StateKansas State -5.5Kansas State60.0Under
202212/03TCU28Kansas State31Kansas StateTCU -1Kansas State60.5Under
202210/22TCU38Kansas State28TCUTCU -3.5TCU54.5Over
202110/30Kansas State31TCU12Kansas StateKansas State -3.5Kansas State58.5Under
202010/10TCU14Kansas State21Kansas StateTCU -10.5Kansas State49.5Under
201910/19Kansas State24TCU17Kansas StateTCU -4.5Kansas State43.5Under
201811/03TCU14Kansas State13TCUTCU -10Kansas State44.5Under
201710/14Kansas State6TCU26TCUTCU -7.5TCU49.5Under
201612/03TCU6Kansas State30Kansas StateTCU -4.5Kansas State50.0Under
201510/10Kansas State45TCU52TCUTCU -7NA61.5Over
201411/08TCU41Kansas State20TCUTCU -6TCU0
201311/16Kansas State33TCU31Kansas StateKansas State -10.5TCU0
201211/10TCU10Kansas State23Kansas State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kansas State872 Overs
TCU548 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 65 - 64 - 51 - 1
Road Teams6 - 76 - 51 - 15 - 4

(#44) TCU Info
Power Rating: 3.50 #44
Offense Rating: 20.84 #32
Defense Rating: 11.76 #97
Overall SP+ Rating: 7.5 #40
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #27
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #57
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 31% #24
Expected Record: 6.40 - 5.60


TCU has won 1 straight
TCU has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 4 (1 - 4 - 0 vs Spread )

TCU Highlights
TCU offense is efficent (#9)
TCU has a top Offensive Line (#35)
TCU offense is good on 3rd downs
TCU does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#39)


TCU Deficiencies
TCU throws a Lot of Interceptions (#60)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatKSUTCU
OverallOver#26#41
OffenseOff#21#35
DefenseDef#55#58
Special TeamsST#55#50
PassingPass#47#34
RushingRush#11#28
Run BlockRBLK#18#81
Pass BlockPBLK#33#49
Route RunningWR Rt#30#20
TacklingTkl#105#65
Run DefenseR Def#81#37
Pass Rush DefPRush#85#88
Coverage DefCov#35#77

Rematch from Week 8
Kansas State -5.5 (60.0)
Kansas State won vs TCU this year (41-3)

Previous Matchups
Kansas State beat TCU in 2023 (41-3)
TCU beat Kansas State in 2022 (38-28)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TCU | KSU
Depth Chart: TCU | KSU
Rosters: TCU | KSU
(#16) Kansas State Info
Power Rating: 15.89 #16
Offense Rating: 23.70 #16
Defense Rating: 4.11 #22
Overall SP+ Rating: 15.4 #15
Offense SP+ Rating: 39.3 #8
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #39
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 5 #61
Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80


Kansas State has won 1 straight
Kansas State has won 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 6 - 1 (6 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Kansas State Highlights
Kansas State has Really Good Running Game (#77)
Kansas State offense is efficent (#82)
Kansas State has a top Offensive Line (#78)
Kansas State offense is good in red zone (#76)
Kansas State offense is good on 3rd downs
Kansas State has a really good defense (#53)
Kansas State defense is really good in red zone (#106)
Kansas State has a good run defense (#48)
Kansas State has a good pass defense (#54)
Kansas State Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#65)
Kansas State Defensive Line is very good (#23)
Kansas State has a great TO Margin (#107)
Kansas State commits very few Penalties (#30)
Kansas State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#87)

Kansas State Deficiencies
Kansas State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#100)


  
TCU's OC Kendal Briles
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Hoover18629962%22101597.4
Chandler Morris13220265%15281257.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Emani Bailey223120985.474
Chandler Morris4524935.532
Trey Sanders (Tr)4817663.718
Savion Williams116205.614
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Savion Williams41573414.042
John Paul Richardson46536311.759
Jared Wiley47520811.181
Jaylon Robinson (Tr)32397112.429

View TCU's Full Roster
TCU's DC Joe Gillespie
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamoi Hodge807372
Namdi Obiazor756432
Shadrach Banks579120
Nook Bradford530005
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Namdi Obiazor756432
Paul Oyewale215310
Jamoi Hodge807372
Caleb Fox254200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josh Newton290005
Nook Bradford530005
Mark Perry522004

Kansas State's OC Collin Klein
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Will Howard21935861%264324107.4
Avery Johnson376656%479507.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DJ Giddens2231226105.543
Treshaun Ward (Tr)12565155.252
Will Howard8036494.670
Avery Johnson5128875.630
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ben Sinnott49676613.844
Phillip Brooks III53589511.140
Jayce Brown27437316.246
DJ Giddens29323311.161

View Kansas State's Full Roster
Kansas State's DC Joe Klanderman
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marques Sigle (Tr)633019
Austin Moore6313210
Kobe Savage574020
VJ Payne573003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khalid Duke198620
Nate Matlack158421
Jevon Banks (Tr)92210
Cody Stufflebean193200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marques Sigle (Tr)633019
Jacob Parrish443109
Will Lee III422006