Clemson at NC State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 28th 2023 (2:00 PM EDT)
Clemson -9.5 (44.5) (0) Open: 0.0
NC State 24 - Clemson: 17 (ACC)

Tigers (9 - 4) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Dabo Swinney (163 - 40)
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (18 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

CLEM 2nd straight Road Game
NCST coming off BYE
Our Line: Clemson -1.5 (SP+ CLEM -1.5)
Projected Score: CLEM: 24 - NCST: 22 (46)
CLEM Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
CLEM Travel: 245 miles

Wolfpack (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (74 - 55)
Avg Score : 26 - 21 (30 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
CLEM Players
NCST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Clemson's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/4	Clemson at Duke	-12.5	54.0	L 7 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/9	Clemson vs Charleston Southern	-50.5	53.0	W 66 - 17	O	N
Sat 9/16	Clemson vs Florida Atlantic	-25.0	51.5	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Clemson vs Florida State	+2.0	55.5	L 24 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/30	Clemson at Syracuse	-7.0	52.0	W 31 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Clemson vs Wake Forest	-21.0	53.5	W 17 - 12	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Clemson at Miami	-3.0	48.5	L 20 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/28	Clemson at NC State	-9.5	44.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/4	Clemson vs Notre Dame	+3.0	44.5	W 31 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Clemson vs Georgia Tech	-17.5	55.5	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Clemson vs North Carolina	-7.5	58.0	W 31 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Clemson at South Carolina	-7.5	48.0	W 16 - 7	U	Y
Fri 12/29	Clemson vs Kentucky	-3.5	44.5	W 38 - 35	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Clemson's Schedule

NC State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	NC State at UConn	-14.5	47.5	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/9	NC State vs Notre Dame	+7.0	49.5	L 24 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/16	NC State vs VMI	-42.5	51.0	W 45 - 7	O	N
Fri 9/22	NC State at Virginia	-8.5	47.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Fri 9/29	NC State vs Louisville	+3.5	56.5	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/7	NC State vs Marshall	-6.5	44.0	W 48 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/14	NC State at Duke	+3.5	44.0	L 3 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	NC State vs Clemson	+9.5	44.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/4	NC State vs Miami	+6.5	44.0	W 20 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/11	NC State at Wake Forest	+0.5	42.5	W 26 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/18	NC State at Virginia Tech	+2.5	40.5	W 35 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/25	NC State vs North Carolina	+2.0	55.0	W 39 - 20	O	Y
Thu 12/28	NC State vs Kansas State	+3.0	48.5	L 19 - 28	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CLEM	#87 (.16)	45% (38)	29.8	47% (25)	3.22 (47)	174	43% (56)	229	3.62 (90)	#9 (.07)	33% (2)	21.1	35% (10)	32% (2)	4.04 (91)	42.2	1.7	2
NCST	#89 (.15)	40% (100)	26.2	40% (96)	3.11 (68)	157	39% (96)	194	4.11 (47)	#16 (.1)	39% (34)	20.8	39% (34)	40% (40)	3.77 (66)	46.3	1.2	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CLEM	#21 (.27)	47% (24)		50% (12)	3.28 (29)	174	45% (36)	279	4.33 (29)	#52 (.14)	40% (48)		43% (68)	38% (36)	3.64 (48)	47.6	0.7	1.9
NCST	#26 (.25)	45% (36)		44% (68)	3.24 (36)	130	47% (20)	215	3.97 (61)	#86 (.19)	41% (59)		39% (31)	43% (87)	3.78 (67)	45	1.7	1.4

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CLEM Offense	13	29.8	18.2	45%	3.62	1.7	23	403	174	229	4.3	49%	51%	47%	43%	16%	.16
NCST Defense	13	20.8	21.3	38.8%	3.77	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	44%	54%	39%	40%	19%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CLEM Defense	13	21.1	20.2	33%	4.04	2	-	-	-	-	-	46%	54%	35%	32%	22%	.07
NCST Offense	13	26.2	30	39.5%	4.11	1.2	19	350	157	194	4.3	52%	48%	40%	39%	18%	.15

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Clemson	13	33:04	23.1	40%	52%	4.9	42.2	1.7	2	6.5	2.3	4	32.3
NC State	13	32:27	18.5	40%	60%	5.8	46.3	1.2	1.9	5.5	2.5	3	30.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CLEM Offense	13	49% (77)	47% (25)	40.2	174.3	4.3	24 (41)	.17 (55)	3.22 (47)	79% (25)	9% (55)	0.91 (106)
NCST Defense	13	44% (11)	39% (34)	-	-	-	-	.12 (55)	2.88 (31)	66% (27)	11% (32)	1.07 (103)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CLEM Defense	13	46% (19)	35% (10)	-	-	-	-	.13 (62)	2.9 (33)	83% (117)	13% (10)	1.22 (128)
NCST Offense	13	52% (52)	40% (96)	36.8	156.6	4.3	19 (69)	.13 (83)	3.11 (68)	80% (20)	12% (106)	0.93 (100)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CLEM Offense	13	51% (53)	43% (56)	23.2	36.5	228.6	6.3	9.8	20 (70)	9 (40)	.16 (104)	1.3 (133)	29% (20)	29% (85)	.18 (109)	6% (85)	1.9 (117)
NCST Defense	13	54% (122)	40% (40)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.14 (15)	1.5 (28)	36% (17)	29% (50)	.2 (19)	7% (25)	1.9 (16)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CLEM Defense	13	54% (116)	32% (2)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (15)	.05 (3)	1.6 (51)	40% (1)	23% (2)	.13 (4)	9% (1)	1.9 (17)
NCST Offense	13	48% (80)	39% (96)	17.2	29.2	193.8	6.7	11.3	19 (78)	12 (85)	.2 (95)	1.6 (67)	34% (102)	27% (101)	.27 (90)	6% (72)	2 (92)

Clemson's Power Ratings
Clemson's Power Rating: 11.99 #15
Clemson's Offense Rating: 14.49 #88
Clemson's Defense Rating: 0.46 #8
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 71% #5
Clemson's 2023 Expected Record: 9.00 - 4.00
Clemson's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.9 #23
Clemson's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #50
Clemson's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.5 #12

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Clemson: 11.99 NC State: 10.03

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Clemson: 10.9 NC State: 9.4

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 10.03 #34
NC State's Offense Rating: 14.92 #83
NC State's Defense Rating: 3.52 #17
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 18 #34
NC State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
NC State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #30
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #69
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.9 #16

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Clemson Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.2
Defense: 21.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.2

Clemson's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Clemson 24
NC State 22

Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
Clemson 25
NC State 23

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
NC State 25
Clemson 22

Total Points: 47

NC State Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 30
Defense: 20.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.3

NC State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/21	Clemson	59	NC State	35	Clemson -17	Clemson	44.0	Over
2023	10/28	NC State	24	Clemson	17	Clemson -9.5	NC State	44.5	Under
2022	10/01	Clemson	30	NC State	20	Clemson -6.5	Clemson	46.0	Over
2021	09/25	NC State	27	Clemson	21	Clemson -10.5	NC State	46.5	Over
2019	11/09	NC State	10	Clemson	55	Clemson -34	Clemson	54.5	Over
2018	10/20	Clemson	41	NC State	7	Clemson -17.5	Clemson	58.0	Under
2017	11/04	NC State	31	Clemson	38	Clemson -9.5	NC State	51.0	Over
2016	10/15	Clemson	24	NC State	17	Clemson -17	NC State	60.0	Under
2015	10/31	NC State	41	Clemson	56	Clemson -9.5	Clemson	50.5	Over
2014	10/04	Clemson	41	NC State	0	Clemson -14	Clemson	0
2013	09/19	NC State	14	Clemson	26	Clemson -13	NC State	0
2012	11/17	Clemson	62	NC State	48
2011	11/19	NC State	37	Clemson	13
2010	11/06	Clemson	14	NC State	13
2009	11/14	NC State	23	Clemson	43
2008	09/13	Clemson	27	NC State	9
2007	09/22	NC State	20	Clemson	42
2006	11/11	Clemson	20	NC State	14
2005	10/13	NC State	10	Clemson	31
2004	10/30	Clemson	26	NC State	20
2003	10/16	NC State	17	Clemson	15
2002	10/24	Clemson	6	NC State	38
2001	10/13	NC State	37	Clemson	45
2000	10/06	Clemson	34	NC State	27

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
NC State	5	5	6 Overs
Clemson	19	6	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 9	8 - 3	4 - 1	4 - 2
Road Teams	9 - 15	3 - 8	2 - 4	1 - 4

(#15) CLEM at (#34) NCST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	CLEM	NCST
Power RatePwr	#15	#34
SP+SP+	#23	#30
Perf GradeGrade	#31	#81
OffenseOff	#94	#110
DefenseDef	#2	#44
Spec TeamsST	#25	#57
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#5	#34

Clemson on Offense


CategoryCat	CLEM Off	NCST Def
Perf GradePerf	#94	#44
SuccessSuc	#38	#34
ExplosiveExp	#132	#72
PPAPPA	#87	#16
PowerPwr	#88	#17
SP+SP+	#50	#16
Pts POPPO	#90	#66
HavocHav	#64	#22

Clemson Run Game


CategoryCat	CLEM Off	NCST Def
Run GameRun	#68	#14
Run SuccessRSuc	#25	#34
Run ExplRExp	#106	#103
PPAExp	#55	#55
Run BlockR Blk	#93	-
OL YdsOLY	#47	#31
Stuff RateStuff	#17	#23
TackleTak	-	#10

Clemson Pass Game


CategoryCat	CLEM Off	NCST Def
Pass GamePass	#85	#93
Pass SuccessPSuc	#56	#40
Pass ExplPExl	#133	#28
PPAExp	#104	#15
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#74	#96
F7 HavocF7	#55	#32
DB HavocDB	#85	#25

NC State on Offense


CategoryCat	NCST Off	CLEM Def
Perf GradePerf	#110	#2
SuccessSuc	#100	#2
ExplosiveExp	#97	#115
PPAPPA	#89	#9
PowerPwr	#83	#8
SP+SP+	#69	#12
Pts POPPO	#47	#91
HavocHav	#97	#3

NC State Run Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	CLEM Def
Run GameRun	#93	#2
Run SuccessRSuc	#96	#10
Run ExplRExp	#100	#128
PPAExp	#83	#62
Run BlockR Blk	#91	-
OL YdsOLY	#68	#33
Stuff RateStuff	#65	#92
TackleTak	-	#30

NC State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	CLEM Def
Pass GamePass	#78	#5
Pass SuccessPSuc	#96	#2
Pass ExplPExl	#67	#51
PPAExp	#95	#3
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#72	#20
F7 HavocF7	#106	#10
DB HavocDB	#72	#1

Program Comparison
NCST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

CLEM 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Carter-Finley Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 84°

Rematch from Week 9
Clemson 9.5 (44.5)
NC State won vs Clemson this year (24-17)

Previous Matchups
Clemson beat NC State last year (59-35)
NC State beat Clemson in 2023 (24-17)
Clemson beat NC State in 2022 (30-20)

CLEM's OC Garrett Riley (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cade Klubnik	290	454	64%	2844	19	9	6.3
Hunter Helms	9	12	75%	83	0	0	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Phil Mafah	179	965	13	5.4	49
Will Shipley	167	827	5	5.0	33
Cade Klubnik	125	182	4	1.5	22
Domonique Thomas	18	116	1	6.4	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tyler Brown	52	531	4	10.2	47
Beaux Collins	38	510	3	13.4	69
Jake Briningstool	50	498	5	10.0	50
Troy Stellato	39	337	1	8.6	18

View Clemson's Full Roster

CLEM's DC Wes Goodwin (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jeremiah Trotter Jr.	79	13	6	8	5
Barrett Carter	56	8	3	4	5
R.J. Mickens	39	4	0	0	3
Khalil Barnes	38	5	1	1	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jeremiah Trotter Jr.	79	13	6	8	5
T.J. Parker	32	13	6	5	1
Ruke Orhorhoro	23	8	5	3	1
Wade Woodaz	26	6	4	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shelton Lewis	10	0	0	0	7
Khalil Barnes	38	5	1	1	6
Andrew Mukuba	35	2	0	0	6

NCST's OC Robert Anae (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brennan Armstrong (Tr)	160	262	61%	1783	11	7	6.8
MJ Morris	63	113	56%	719	7	5	6.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brennan Armstrong (Tr)	143	665	7	4.7	43
Kevin Concepcion	41	320	0	7.8	65
Kendrick Raphael	67	311	1	4.6	31
Delbert Mimms III	96	282	8	2.9	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kevin Concepcion	71	839	10	11.8	72
Keyon Lesane	28	247	0	8.8	38
Dacari Collins (Tr)	14	210	2	15.0	38
Brad Rozner	18	208	2	11.6	21

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC Tony Gibson (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Jaylon Scott	75	6	2	10	3
Sean Brown	66	5	2	4	5
Devan Boykin	54	3	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davin Vann	43	8	7	11	1
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Red Hibbler	12	6	6	3	1
Brandon Cleveland	28	5	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aydan White	37	2	1	0	10
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Sean Brown	66	5	2	4	5