NC State at UConn - 2023 Matchup Preview

NC State Wolfpack at UConn Huskies

Thursday, August 31st 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
NC State -14.5 (47.5) (0) Open: 0.0
NC State 24 - UConn: 14

Wolfpack (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (74 - 55)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (23 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: NC State -17.5 (SP+ NCST -25.5)
Projected Score: NCST: 36 - CONN: 18 (54)
NCST Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
NCST Travel: 526 miles

Huskies (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jim L. Mora (6 - 10)
Avg Score : 35 - 27 (40 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.6 - 7.4 (#106)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NCST Players
CONN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

NC State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	NC State at UConn	-14.5	47.5	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/9	NC State vs Notre Dame	+7.0	49.5	L 24 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/16	NC State vs VMI	-42.5	51.0	W 45 - 7	O	N
Fri 9/22	NC State at Virginia	-8.5	47.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Fri 9/29	NC State vs Louisville	+3.5	56.5	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/7	NC State vs Marshall	-6.5	44.0	W 48 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/14	NC State at Duke	+3.5	44.0	L 3 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	NC State vs Clemson	+9.5	44.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/4	NC State vs Miami	+6.5	44.0	W 20 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/11	NC State at Wake Forest	+0.5	42.5	W 26 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/18	NC State at Virginia Tech	+2.5	40.5	W 35 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/25	NC State vs North Carolina	+2.0	55.0	W 39 - 20	O	Y
Thu 12/28	NC State vs Kansas State	+3.0	48.5	L 19 - 28	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for NC State's Schedule

UConn's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	UConn vs NC State	+14.5	47.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/9	UConn at Georgia State	+3.0	54.5	L 14 - 35	U	N
Sat 9/16	UConn vs Florida International	-7.0	43.0	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/23	UConn vs Duke	+22.0	45.0	L 7 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/30	UConn vs Utah State	+4.0	50.5	L 33 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/7	UConn at Rice	+10.0	47.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	UConn vs South Florida	-1.0	57.0	L 21 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/28	UConn at Boston College	+14.5	49.0	L 14 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/4	UConn at Tennessee	+35.0	55.5	L 3 - 59	O	N
Sat 11/11	UConn at James Madison	+24.5	47.5	L 6 - 44	O	N
Sat 11/18	UConn vs Sacred Heart	-25.5	40.5	W 31 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/25	UConn at Massachusetts	+2.5	51.0	W 31 - 18	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST	.13	39%	30.2	40%	2.81	114	38%	226	3.52	.1	35%	27.2	33%	37%	3.39	57.8	1.2	1.7
CONN	.11	38%	35.3	43%	3.03	191	32%	112	3.67	.19	47%	27	49%	46%	3.69	60.8	1.6	2.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
CONN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Offense	13	30.2	23	38.8%	3.52	1.2	20	340	114	226	3.4	44%	55%	40%	38%	16%	.13
CONN Defense	13	27	19.5	47.2%	3.69	2.3	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	49%	46%	15%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Defense	13	27.2	39.8	35.1%	3.39	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	42%	57%	33%	37%	19%	.1
CONN Offense	13	35.3	40.3	38.2%	3.67	1.6	16	303	191	112	4.7	62%	36%	43%	32%	18%	.11

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
NC State	13	31:23	20.4	36%	40%	7.3	57.8	1.2	1.7	6.5	2.2	2	31.6
UConn	13	30:17	16.2	37%	39%	7.1	60.8	1.6	2.3	4.2	1.8	0	29.4

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Offense	13	44%	40%	34	113.8	3.4	8	.02	2.81	71%	10%	0.82
CONN Defense	13	52%	49%	-	-	-	-	.21	3.26	83%	9%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Defense	13	42%	33%	-	-	-	-	.01	2.51	53%	11%	1.04
CONN Offense	13	62%	43%	40.4	190.9	4.7	20	.21	3.03	64%	13%	1.17

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Offense	13	55%	38%	20.7	36.2	226.1	6.2	10.9	23	8	.25	1.5	35%	27%	.32	6%	2.1
CONN Defense	13	47%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.21	1.3	27%	31%	.21	6%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Defense	13	57%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	19	.2	1.6	38%	30%	.36	8%	2
CONN Offense	13	36%	32%	12.1	21.2	112	5.3	9.3	10	10	.1	1.6	35%	26%	.16	5%	2.1

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 5.66 #34
NC State's Offense Rating: 14.92 #83
NC State's Defense Rating: 3.52 #17
2023 Talent Rating: 700.85 #38
Blue Chip Ratio: 18% #34
NC State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
NC State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #30
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #69
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.9 #16

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: 5.66 UConn: -10.125

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 9.4 UConn: -16.0

UConn's Power Ratings
UConn's Power Rating: -10.125 #115
UConn's Offense Rating: 12.71 #102
UConn's Defense Rating: 13.58 #109
2023 Talent Rating: 484.94 #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
UConn's 2023 Expected Record: 4.60 - 7.40
UConn's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0 #122
UConn's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.8 #118
UConn's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #97

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 677.82
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

NC State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.8

NC State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
NC State 36
UConn 18

Projected Total Points: 54

UConn Scoring
Offense: 35.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.3
Defense: 27 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

UConn's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	08/31	UConn	14	NC State	24	NC State -14.5	UConn	47.5	Under
2022	09/24	NC State	41	UConn	10	NC State -38.5	UConn	48.0	Over
2012	09/08	UConn	7	NC State	10
2003	10/11	NC State	31	UConn	24

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UConn	0	2	1 Overs
NC State	4	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0

(#34) NCST at (#115) CONN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NCST	CONN
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#34	#115
SP+SP+	#30	#122
Perf GradeGrade	#81	#95
OffenseOff	#110	#88
DefenseDef	#44	#76
Spec TeamsST	#57	#126
TalentTal	#38	#93
Blue ChipsBC%	#34	#75

NC State Injury Report

UConn Injury Report

NC State on Offense


CategoryCat	NCST Off	CONN Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#110	#76
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#83	#109
SP+SP+	#69	#97
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

NC State Run Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	CONN Def
Run GameRun	#93	#18
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#91	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#131

NC State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	CONN Def
Pass GamePass	#78	#125
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#72	#50
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

UConn on Offense


CategoryCat	CONN Off	NCST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#88	#44
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#102	#17
SP+SP+	#118	#16
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

UConn Run Game


CategoryCat	CONN Off	NCST Def
Run GameRun	#105	#14
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#17	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#10

UConn Pass Game


CategoryCat	CONN Off	NCST Def
Pass GamePass	#96	#93
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#39	#96
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
CONN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'23 Profile: Remains Poor G5

NCST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rentschler Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
NC State 14.5 (47.5)
NC State won at UConn this year (24-14)

Previous Matchups
NC State beat UConn in 2023 (24-14)

NCST's OC Robert Anae (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brennan Armstrong (Tr)	160	262	61%	1783	11	7	6.8
MJ Morris	63	113	56%	719	7	5	6.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brennan Armstrong (Tr)	143	665	7	4.7	43
Kevin Concepcion	41	320	0	7.8	65
Kendrick Raphael	67	311	1	4.6	31
Delbert Mimms III	96	282	8	2.9	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kevin Concepcion	71	839	10	11.8	72
Keyon Lesane	28	247	0	8.8	38
Dacari Collins (Tr)	14	210	2	15.0	38
Brad Rozner	18	208	2	11.6	21

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC Tony Gibson (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Jaylon Scott	75	6	2	10	3
Sean Brown	66	5	2	4	5
Devan Boykin	54	3	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davin Vann	43	8	7	11	1
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Red Hibbler	12	6	6	3	1
Brandon Cleveland	28	5	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aydan White	37	2	1	0	10
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Sean Brown	66	5	2	4	5

CONN's OC Nick Charlton (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ta'Quan Roberson	197	338	58%	2075	12	6	6.1
Joe Fagnano (Tr)	18	35	51%	173	0	1	4.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Edwards	122	618	4	5.1	39
Victor Rosa	112	550	3	4.9	71
Devontae Houston	34	161	0	4.7	27
Ta'Quan Roberson	46	120	2	2.6	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cameron Ross	44	568	2	12.9	46
Justin Joly	56	562	2	10.0	59
Brett Buckman	46	488	2	10.6	40
Geordon Porter (Tr)	22	213	1	9.7	28

View UConn's Full Roster

CONN's DC Lou Spanos (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jackson Mitchell	113	7	1	4	1
Durante Jones	72	2	1	0	1
Tui Faumuina-Brown	61	4	1	0	0
Noah Plack (Tr)	49	5	1	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Pryce Yates	42	14	5	2	2
Dalmont Gourdine	28	6	3	2	3
Eric Watts	34	7	2	1	1
Mumu Bin-Wahad (Tr)	34	4	1	0	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Malcolm Bell	28	2	0	4
Chris Shearin	36	1	0	3
Mumu Bin-Wahad (Tr)	34	4	1	3