Notre Dame at NC State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at NC State Wolfpack

Saturday, September 9th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Notre Dame -7 (49.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Notre Dame 45 - NC State: 24

Fighting Irish (10 - 3) (9 - 3 - 1)
Coach Marcus Freeman (13 - 5)
Avg Score : 42 - 18 (38 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Notre Dame -9.5 (SP+ ND -9.5)
Projected Score: ND: 31 - NCST: 22 (53)
ND Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
ND Travel: 574 miles

Wolfpack (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (74 - 55)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (35 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ND Players
NCST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Notre Dame's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Notre Dame vs Navy	-20.5	49.0	W 42 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/2	Notre Dame vs Tennessee State	-48.5	55.0	W 56 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Notre Dame at NC State	-7.0	49.5	W 45 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Notre Dame vs Central Michigan	-34.5	51.5	W 41 - 17	O	N
Sat 9/23	Notre Dame vs Ohio State	+3.0	55.5	L 14 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Notre Dame at Duke	-5.5	52.5	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Notre Dame at Louisville	-6.5	53.0	L 20 - 33	U	N
Sat 10/14	Notre Dame vs USC	-3.0	61.0	W 48 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh	-21.0	45.5	W 58 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Notre Dame at Clemson	-3.0	44.5	L 23 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18	Notre Dame vs Wake Forest	-22.5	47.5	W 45 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Notre Dame at Stanford	-26.0	50.5	W 56 - 23	O	Y
Fri 12/29	Notre Dame vs Oregon State	-5.5	40.5	W 40 - 8	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Notre Dame's Schedule

NC State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	NC State at UConn	-14.5	47.5	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/9	NC State vs Notre Dame	+7.0	49.5	L 24 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/16	NC State vs VMI	-42.5	51.0	W 45 - 7	O	N
Fri 9/22	NC State at Virginia	-8.5	47.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Fri 9/29	NC State vs Louisville	+3.5	56.5	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/7	NC State vs Marshall	-6.5	44.0	W 48 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/14	NC State at Duke	+3.5	44.0	L 3 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	NC State vs Clemson	+9.5	44.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/4	NC State vs Miami	+6.5	44.0	W 20 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/11	NC State at Wake Forest	+0.5	42.5	W 26 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/18	NC State at Virginia Tech	+2.5	40.5	W 35 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/25	NC State vs North Carolina	+2.0	55.0	W 39 - 20	O	Y
Thu 12/28	NC State vs Kansas State	+3.0	48.5	L 19 - 28	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ND	.2	48%	42	49%	3.34	189	46%	207	3.99	.14	39%	17.6	44%	35%	3.92	42.3	1.4	1.4
NCST	.13	39%	30.2	40%	2.81	114	38%	226	3.52	.1	35%	27.2	33%	37%	3.39	57.8	1.2	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ND		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NCST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ND Offense	13	42	38.2	47.6%	3.99	1.4	22	396	189	207	4.6	58%	41%	49%	46%	12%	.2
NCST Defense	13	27.2	21	35.1%	3.39	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	42%	57%	33%	37%	19%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ND Defense	13	17.6	17	38.9%	3.92	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	44%	35%	15%	.14
NCST Offense	13	30.2	35.3	38.8%	3.52	1.2	20	340	114	226	3.4	44%	55%	40%	38%	16%	.13

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Notre Dame	13	32:10	21.6	47%	44%	4.6	42.3	1.4	1.4	6	2.8	3	33.4
NC State	13	31:23	20.4	36%	40%	7.3	57.8	1.2	1.7	6.5	2.2	2	31.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ND Offense	13	58%	49%	40.8	189.1	4.6	25	.16	3.34	73%	7%	0.85
NCST Defense	13	42%	33%	-	-	-	-	.01	2.51	53%	11%	1.04

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ND Defense	13	48%	44%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.01	63%	11%	1.06
NCST Offense	13	44%	40%	34	113.8	3.4	8	.02	2.81	71%	10%	0.82

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ND Offense	13	41%	46%	16.2	26	207.2	8	12.8	25	11	.27	1.6	26%	33%	.35	5%	1.9
NCST Defense	13	57%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	19	.2	1.6	38%	30%	.36	8%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ND Defense	13	51%	35%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.14	1.7	33%	26%	.28	4%	2.3
NCST Offense	13	55%	38%	20.7	36.2	226.1	6.2	10.9	23	8	.25	1.5	35%	27%	.32	6%	2.1

Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 19.73 #6
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 25.62 #11
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: 1.24 #12
2023 Talent Rating: 870.70 #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 67% #9
Notre Dame's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Notre Dame's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 19.1 #9
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.8 #17
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.4 #11

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 677.82
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Notre Dame: 19.73 NC State: 10.03

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Notre Dame: 19.1 NC State: 9.4

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 10.03 #34
NC State's Offense Rating: 14.92 #83
NC State's Defense Rating: 3.52 #17
2023 Talent Rating: 700.85 #38
Blue Chip Ratio: 18 #34
NC State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
NC State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #30
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #69
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.9 #16

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 42 PPG
Offense on Road: 38.2
Defense: 17.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 17

Notre Dame's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Notre Dame 31
NC State 22

Projected Total Points: 53

NC State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.3
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

NC State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Notre Dame	36	NC State	7	Notre Dame -23.5	Notre Dame	59.5	Under
2023	09/09	NC State	24	Notre Dame	45	Notre Dame -7	Notre Dame	49.5	Over
2017	10/28	Notre Dame	35	NC State	14	Notre Dame -7	Notre Dame	61.0	Under
2016	10/08	NC State	10	Notre Dame	3	Notre Dame -2.5	NC State	56.5	Under
2002	01/01	Notre Dame	6	NC State	28

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
NC State	2	1	1 Overs
Notre Dame	3	3	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 2	3 - 1	2 - 0	1 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 3	1 - 3	1 - 1	0 - 2

(#6) ND at (#34) NCST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ND	NCST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#6	#34
SP+SP+	#9	#30
Perf GradeGrade	#2	#81
OffenseOff	#5	#110
DefenseDef	#3	#44
Spec TeamsST	#2	#57
TalentTal	#11	#38
Blue ChipsBC%	#9	#34

Notre Dame Injury Report

NC State Injury Report

Notre Dame on Offense


CategoryCat	ND Off	NCST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#5	#44
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#11	#17
SP+SP+	#17	#16
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Notre Dame Run Game


CategoryCat	ND Off	NCST Def
Run GameRun	#15	#14
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#30	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#10

Notre Dame Pass Game


CategoryCat	ND Off	NCST Def
Pass GamePass	#17	#93
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#25	#96
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

NC State on Offense


CategoryCat	NCST Off	ND Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#110	#3
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#83	#12
SP+SP+	#69	#11
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

NC State Run Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	ND Def
Run GameRun	#93	#8
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#91	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#38

NC State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	ND Def
Pass GamePass	#78	#4
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#72	#8
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
NCST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

ND 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Carter-Finley Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
Notre Dame 7.0 (49.5)
Notre Dame won at NC State this year (45-24)

Previous Matchups
Notre Dame beat NC State last year (36-7)
Notre Dame beat NC State in 2023 (45-24)

ND's OC Gerad Parker (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sam Hartman (Tr)	191	301	64%	2689	24	8	8.9
Steven Angeli	34	44	77%	504	7	1	11.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Audric Estime	210	1341	18	6.4	80
Jeremiyah Love	71	385	1	5.4	36
Jadarian Price	47	272	3	5.8	54
Gi'Bran Payne	45	168	2	3.7	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chris Tyree	26	484	3	18.6	76
Mitchell Evans	29	422	1	14.6	36
Rico Flores	27	392	1	14.5	60
Jordan Faison	19	322	4	16.9	55

View Notre Dame's Full Roster

ND's DC Al Golden (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
JD Bertrand	76	8	3	7	5
Howard Cross III	65	7	2	4	2
Jack Kiser	52	1	1	3	1
Xavier Watts	47	3	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Javontae Jean-Baptiste (Tr)	46	10	5	8	1
Jordan Botelho	29	5	4	3	0
Marist Liufau	42	6	3	2	1
Nana Osafo-Mensah	20	6	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Benjamin Morrison	30	4	0	0	9
JD Bertrand	76	8	3	7	5
Cam Hart	19	2	0	0	4

NCST's OC Robert Anae (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brennan Armstrong (Tr)	160	262	61%	1783	11	7	6.8
MJ Morris	63	113	56%	719	7	5	6.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brennan Armstrong (Tr)	143	665	7	4.7	43
Kevin Concepcion	41	320	0	7.8	65
Kendrick Raphael	67	311	1	4.6	31
Delbert Mimms III	96	282	8	2.9	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kevin Concepcion	71	839	10	11.8	72
Keyon Lesane	28	247	0	8.8	38
Dacari Collins (Tr)	14	210	2	15.0	38
Brad Rozner	18	208	2	11.6	21

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC Tony Gibson (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Jaylon Scott	75	6	2	10	3
Sean Brown	66	5	2	4	5
Devan Boykin	54	3	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davin Vann	43	8	7	11	1
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Red Hibbler	12	6	6	3	1
Brandon Cleveland	28	5	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aydan White	37	2	1	0	10
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Sean Brown	66	5	2	4	5