Miami at NC State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 4th 2023 (8:00 PM EDT)
Miami -6.5 (44.0) (-185) Open: -3.5 | 45.5
NC State 20 - Miami: 6 (ACC)

Hurricanes (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (8 - 7)
Avg Score : 32 - 23 (29 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.8 - 4.2 (#30)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NCST 2nd straight Home Game
MIAMI is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Miami -1 (SP+ MIAMI -2.5)
Projected Score: MIAMI: 25 - NCST: 24 (49)
MIAMI Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
MIAMI Travel: 686 miles

Wolfpack (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (74 - 55)
Avg Score : 26 - 21 (30 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MIAMI Players
NCST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Miami's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Miami vs Miami (OH)	-16.5	45.0	W 38 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Miami vs Texas A&M	+3.0	50.5	W 48 - 33	O	Y
Thu 9/14	Miami vs Bethune-Cookman	-54.0	63.5	W 48 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Miami at Temple	-23.0	46.5	W 41 - 7	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	Miami vs Georgia Tech	-19.0	57.0	L 20 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/14	Miami at North Carolina	+2.5	57.5	L 31 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/21	Miami vs Clemson	+3.0	48.5	W 28 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Miami vs Virginia	-18.5	48.0	W 29 - 26	O	N
Sat 11/4	Miami at NC State	-6.5	44.0	L 6 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/11	Miami at Florida State	+14.5	50.5	L 20 - 27	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Miami vs Louisville	-1.5	46.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
Fri 11/24	Miami at Boston College	-13.5	50.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Thu 12/28	Miami vs Rutgers	+3.0	41.0	L 24 - 31	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami's Schedule

NC State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	NC State at UConn	-14.5	47.5	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/9	NC State vs Notre Dame	+7.0	49.5	L 24 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/16	NC State vs VMI	-42.5	51.0	W 45 - 7	O	N
Fri 9/22	NC State at Virginia	-8.5	47.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Fri 9/29	NC State vs Louisville	+3.5	56.5	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/7	NC State vs Marshall	-6.5	44.0	W 48 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/14	NC State at Duke	+3.5	44.0	L 3 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	NC State vs Clemson	+9.5	44.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/4	NC State vs Miami	+6.5	44.0	W 20 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/11	NC State at Wake Forest	+0.5	42.5	W 26 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/18	NC State at Virginia Tech	+2.5	40.5	W 35 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/25	NC State vs North Carolina	+2.0	55.0	W 39 - 20	O	Y
Thu 12/28	NC State vs Kansas State	+3.0	48.5	L 19 - 28	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIAMI	#37 (.27)	43% (52)	31.5	43% (64)	3.35 (24)	173	44% (43)	258	3.99 (56)	#37 (.14)	39% (31)	22.8	38% (27)	39% (38)	4.53 (125)	57.8	1.7	1.4
NCST	#89 (.15)	40% (100)	26.2	40% (96)	3.11 (68)	157	39% (96)	194	4.11 (47)	#16 (.1)	39% (34)	20.8	39% (34)	40% (40)	3.77 (66)	46.3	1.2	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIAMI	#2 (.4)	52% (1)		56% (1)	3.59 (4)	165	50% (7)	332	4.96 (2)	#69 (.16)	38% (26)		38% (16)	38% (40)	4.02 (91)	63.1	1	1.4
NCST	#26 (.25)	45% (36)		44% (68)	3.24 (36)	130	47% (20)	215	3.97 (61)	#86 (.19)	41% (59)		39% (31)	43% (87)	3.78 (67)	45	1.7	1.4

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIAMI Offense	13	31.5	28.6	43.3%	3.99	1.7	22	431	173	258	5.1	47%	52%	43%	44%	14%	.27
NCST Defense	13	20.8	21.3	38.8%	3.77	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	44%	54%	39%	40%	19%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIAMI Defense	13	22.8	23	38.5%	4.53	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	38%	39%	17%	.14
NCST Offense	13	26.2	30	39.5%	4.11	1.2	19	350	157	194	4.3	52%	48%	40%	39%	18%	.15

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Miami	13	31:52	21.9	41%	52%	6.1	57.8	1.7	1.4	6	2.6	2	29.4
NC State	13	32:27	18.5	40%	60%	5.8	46.3	1.2	1.9	5.5	2.5	3	30.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIAMI Offense	13	47% (96)	43% (64)	33.8	173.2	5.1	24 (41)	.2 (44)	3.35 (24)	82% (10)	8% (21)	1.03 (51)
NCST Defense	13	44% (11)	39% (34)	-	-	-	-	.12 (55)	2.88 (31)	66% (27)	11% (32)	1.07 (103)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIAMI Defense	13	47% (36)	38% (27)	-	-	-	-	.07 (28)	2.65 (12)	70% (45)	12% (27)	1 (71)
NCST Offense	13	52% (52)	40% (96)	36.8	156.6	4.3	19 (69)	.13 (83)	3.11 (68)	80% (20)	12% (106)	0.93 (100)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIAMI Offense	13	52% (42)	44% (43)	21.8	33.6	258	7.7	11.9	23 (51)	14 (107)	.39 (28)	1.6 (55)	30% (36)	32% (63)	.36 (60)	6% (91)	2 (87)
NCST Defense	13	54% (122)	40% (40)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.14 (15)	1.5 (28)	36% (17)	29% (50)	.2 (19)	7% (25)	1.9 (16)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIAMI Defense	13	52% (102)	39% (38)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.22 (41)	1.6 (60)	33% (47)	28% (33)	.3 (62)	5% (104)	2.2 (111)
NCST Offense	13	48% (80)	39% (96)	17.2	29.2	193.8	6.7	11.3	19 (78)	12 (85)	.2 (95)	1.6 (67)	34% (102)	27% (101)	.27 (90)	6% (72)	2 (92)

Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 9.90 #22
Miami's Offense Rating: 19.30 #42
Miami's Defense Rating: 7.26 #41
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 64% #11
Miami's 2023 Expected Record: 8.80 - 4.20
Miami's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.7 #22
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #32
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #36

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami: 9.90 NC State: 10.03

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami: 11.7 NC State: 9.4

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 10.03 #34
NC State's Offense Rating: 14.92 #83
NC State's Defense Rating: 3.52 #17
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 18 #34
NC State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
NC State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #30
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #69
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.9 #16

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Miami Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

Miami's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Miami 25
NC State 24

Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
NC State 29
Miami 26

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
Miami 26
NC State 26

Total Points: 52

NC State Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 30
Defense: 20.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.3

NC State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	11/04	NC State	20	Miami	6	Miami -6.5	NC State	44.0	Under
2021	10/23	Miami	31	NC State	30	NC State -3.5	Miami	54.5	Over
2020	11/06	NC State	41	Miami	44	Miami -10	NC State	57.5	Over
2016	11/19	NC State	13	Miami	27	Miami -2.5	Miami	52.0	Under
2012	09/29	Miami	44	NC State	37
2008	11/29	NC State	38	Miami	28
2007	11/03	Miami	16	NC State	19
2004	10/23	NC State	31	Miami	45

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
NC State	3	2	2 Overs
Miami	5	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 4	3 - 1	0 - 0	3 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 4	1 - 3	1 - 3	0 - 0

(#22) MIAMI at (#34) NCST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MIAMI	NCST
Power RatePwr	#22	#34
SP+SP+	#22	#30
Perf GradeGrade	#12	#81
OffenseOff	#15	#110
DefenseDef	#22	#44
Spec TeamsST	#95	#57
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#11	#34

Miami on Offense


CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	NCST Def
Perf GradePerf	#15	#44
SuccessSuc	#52	#34
ExplosiveExp	#37	#72
PPAPPA	#37	#16
PowerPwr	#42	#17
SP+SP+	#32	#16
Pts POPPO	#56	#66
HavocHav	#38	#22

Miami Run Game


CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	NCST Def
Run GameRun	#31	#14
Run SuccessRSuc	#64	#34
Run ExplRExp	#51	#103
PPAExp	#44	#55
Run BlockR Blk	#35	-
OL YdsOLY	#24	#31
Stuff RateStuff	#58	#23
TackleTak	-	#10

Miami Pass Game


CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	NCST Def
Pass GamePass	#22	#93
Pass SuccessPSuc	#43	#40
Pass ExplPExl	#55	#28
PPAExp	#28	#15
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#13	#96
F7 HavocF7	#21	#32
DB HavocDB	#91	#25

NC State on Offense


CategoryCat	NCST Off	MIAMI Def
Perf GradePerf	#110	#22
SuccessSuc	#100	#31
ExplosiveExp	#97	#76
PPAPPA	#89	#37
PowerPwr	#83	#41
SP+SP+	#69	#36
Pts POPPO	#47	#125
HavocHav	#97	#56

NC State Run Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	MIAMI Def
Run GameRun	#93	#19
Run SuccessRSuc	#96	#27
Run ExplRExp	#100	#71
PPAExp	#83	#28
Run BlockR Blk	#91	-
OL YdsOLY	#68	#12
Stuff RateStuff	#65	#9
TackleTak	-	#51

NC State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	MIAMI Def
Pass GamePass	#78	#53
Pass SuccessPSuc	#96	#38
Pass ExplPExl	#67	#60
PPAExp	#95	#41
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#72	#22
F7 HavocF7	#106	#27
DB HavocDB	#72	#104

Program Comparison
NCST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Carter-Finley Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 48°

Rematch from Week 10
Miami 6.5 (44.0)
NC State won vs Miami this year (20-6)

Previous Matchups
NC State beat Miami in 2023 (20-6)

MIAMI's OC Shannon Dawson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tyler Van Dyke	219	333	66%	2703	19	12	8.1
Emory Williams	44	71	62%	470	3	1	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Henry Parrish Jr.	100	625	6	6.3	38
Mark Fletcher Jr.	105	514	5	4.9	54
Donald Chaney Jr.	94	478	2	5.1	29
Ajay Allen (Tr)	70	361	5	5.2	30

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Xavier Restrepo	85	1092	6	12.8	48
Jacolby George	57	864	8	15.2	85
Colbie Young	47	563	5	12.0	57
Brashard Smith	22	263	2	12.0	54

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Lance Guidry (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Francisco Mauigoa (Tr)	78	17	8	6	3
James Williams	72	1	0	2	4
Kamren Kinchens	52	3	1	0	5
Corey Flagg Jr.	47	7	0	3	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Francisco Mauigoa (Tr)	78	17	8	6	3
Rueben Bain Jr.	42	12	8	4	1
Branson Deen (Tr)	15	4	3	2	0
Wesley Bissainthe	41	7	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kamren Kinchens	52	3	1	0	5
Daryl Porter Jr.	21	0	0	1	4
James Williams	72	1	0	2	4

NCST's OC Robert Anae (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brennan Armstrong (Tr)	160	262	61%	1783	11	7	6.8
MJ Morris	63	113	56%	719	7	5	6.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brennan Armstrong (Tr)	143	665	7	4.7	43
Kevin Concepcion	41	320	0	7.8	65
Kendrick Raphael	67	311	1	4.6	31
Delbert Mimms III	96	282	8	2.9	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kevin Concepcion	71	839	10	11.8	72
Keyon Lesane	28	247	0	8.8	38
Dacari Collins (Tr)	14	210	2	15.0	38
Brad Rozner	18	208	2	11.6	21

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC Tony Gibson (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Jaylon Scott	75	6	2	10	3
Sean Brown	66	5	2	4	5
Devan Boykin	54	3	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davin Vann	43	8	7	11	1
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Red Hibbler	12	6	6	3	1
Brandon Cleveland	28	5	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aydan White	37	2	1	0	10
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Sean Brown	66	5	2	4	5