VMI at NC State - 2023 Matchup Preview

VMI Keydets at NC State Wolfpack

Saturday, September 16th 2023 (2:00 PM EDT)
NC State -42.5 (51.0) (0) Open: 0.0
NC State 45 - VMI: 7

Keydets (0 - 1) (1 - 0 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 7 - 52 (7 - 52 on Road)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NCST 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: NC State -10 (SP+ NCST -9)
NCST Win prob: 100% | Cover: 56%

Wolfpack (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (74 - 55)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (35 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
VMI Players
NCST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

VMI's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/16	VMI at NC State	+42.5	51.0	L 7 - 45	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for VMI's Schedule

NC State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	NC State at UConn	-14.5	47.5	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/9	NC State vs Notre Dame	+7.0	49.5	L 24 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/16	NC State vs VMI	-42.5	51.0	W 45 - 7	O	N
Fri 9/22	NC State at Virginia	-8.5	47.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Fri 9/29	NC State vs Louisville	+3.5	56.5	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/7	NC State vs Marshall	-6.5	44.0	W 48 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/14	NC State at Duke	+3.5	44.0	L 3 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	NC State vs Clemson	+9.5	44.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/4	NC State vs Miami	+6.5	44.0	W 20 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/11	NC State at Wake Forest	+0.5	42.5	W 26 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/18	NC State at Virginia Tech	+2.5	40.5	W 35 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/25	NC State vs North Carolina	+2.0	55.0	W 39 - 20	O	Y
Thu 12/28	NC State vs Kansas State	+3.0	48.5	L 19 - 28	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
VMI		0%	7	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	52	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NCST	.13	39%	30.2	40%	2.81	114	38%	226	3.52	.1	35%	27.2	33%	37%	3.39	57.8	1.2	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
VMI		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NCST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
VMI Offense	1	7	7	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
NCST Defense	13	27.2	21	35.1%	3.39	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	42%	57%	33%	37%	19%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
VMI Defense	1	52	52	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
NCST Offense	13	30.2	35.3	38.8%	3.52	1.2	20	340	114	226	3.4	44%	55%	40%	38%	16%	.13

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
VMI	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
NC State	13	31:23	20.4	36%	40%	7.3	57.8	1.2	1.7	6.5	2.2	2	31.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
VMI Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
NCST Defense	13	42%	33%	-	-	-	-	.01	2.51	53%	11%	1.04

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
VMI Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
NCST Offense	13	44%	40%	34	113.8	3.4	8	.02	2.81	71%	10%	0.82

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
VMI Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
NCST Defense	13	57%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	19	.2	1.6	38%	30%	.36	8%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
VMI Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
NCST Offense	13	55%	38%	20.7	36.2	226.1	6.2	10.9	23	8	.25	1.5	35%	27%	.32	6%	2.1

VMI's Power Ratings
VMI's Power Rating: NR
VMI's Offense Rating: NR
VMI's Defense Rating: NR
2023 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
VMI's 2023 Expected Record: -
VMI's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
VMI's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
VMI's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Southern Talent Rating is 85.99
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
VMI: NC State: 10.03

SP+ Ratings Matchup
VMI: NC State: 9.4

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 10.03 #34
NC State's Offense Rating: 14.92 #83
NC State's Defense Rating: 3.52 #17
2023 Talent Rating: 700.85 #38
Blue Chip Ratio: 18 #34
NC State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
NC State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #30
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #69
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.9 #16

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

VMI Scoring
Offense: 7 PPG
Offense on Road: 7
Defense: 52 PPG
Defense on Road: 52

VMI's 2023 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
NC State 32
VMI 22

Projected Total Points: 55

NC State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.3
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

NC State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/16	NC State	45	VMI	7	NC State -42.5	VMI	51.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
NC State	1	0	1 Overs
VMI	0	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#) VMI at (#34) NCST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	VMI	NCST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	#34
SP+SP+	NR	#30
Perf GradeGrade	NR	#81
OffenseOff	NR	#110
DefenseDef	NR	#44
Spec TeamsST	NR	#57
TalentTal	NR	#38
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	#34

VMI Injury Report

NC State Injury Report

VMI on Offense


CategoryCat	VMI Off	NCST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	#44
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	#17
SP+SP+	NR	#16
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

VMI Run Game


CategoryCat	VMI Off	NCST Def
Run GameRun	NR	#14
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#10

VMI Pass Game


CategoryCat	VMI Off	NCST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	#93
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	#96
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

NC State on Offense


CategoryCat	NCST Off	VMI Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#110	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#83	NR
SP+SP+	#69	NR
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

NC State Run Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	VMI Def
Run GameRun	#93	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#91	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

NC State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	VMI Def
Pass GamePass	#78	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#72	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
NCST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

VMI 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'23 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Carter-Finley Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 3
NC State -42.5 (51.0)
NC State won vs VMI this year (45-7)

Previous Matchups
NC State beat VMI in 2023 (45-7)

VMI's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Collin Shannon	147	268	55%	1982	13	5	7.4
Chandler Wilson	26	54	48%	197	1	1	3.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rashad Raymond	149	781	8	5.2	67
Isaiah Lemmond	1	17	0	17.0	17
Chandler Wilson	17	9	0	0.5	16
Collin Shannon	39	-82	0	-2.1	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Isaiah Lemmond	26	268	0	10.3	26
Morgan McPhaul	15	174	1	11.6	73
Rashad Raymond	17	105	0	6.2	24
Destin Moore	3	2	0	0.7	5

View VMI's Full Roster

VMI's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Evan Eller	62	7	2	2	1
Kouri Crump	14	1	0	0	0
Stephen Dean	6	0	0	0	0
Joe Comello	4	0	0	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Evan Eller	62	7	2	2	1
Tyler Swann	1	1	1	0	1
Kouri Crump	14	1	0	0	0
Stephen Dean	6	0	0	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Evan Eller	62	7	2	2	1
Tyler Swann	1	1	1	0	1
Kouri Crump	14	1	0	0	0

NCST's OC Robert Anae (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brennan Armstrong (Tr)	160	262	61%	1783	11	7	6.8
MJ Morris	63	113	56%	719	7	5	6.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brennan Armstrong (Tr)	143	665	7	4.7	43
Kevin Concepcion	41	320	0	7.8	65
Kendrick Raphael	67	311	1	4.6	31
Delbert Mimms III	96	282	8	2.9	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kevin Concepcion	71	839	10	11.8	72
Keyon Lesane	28	247	0	8.8	38
Dacari Collins (Tr)	14	210	2	15.0	38
Brad Rozner	18	208	2	11.6	21

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC Tony Gibson (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Jaylon Scott	75	6	2	10	3
Sean Brown	66	5	2	4	5
Devan Boykin	54	3	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davin Vann	43	8	7	11	1
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Red Hibbler	12	6	6	3	1
Brandon Cleveland	28	5	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aydan White	37	2	1	0	10
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Sean Brown	66	5	2	4	5