Virginia at Miami - 2023 Matchup Preview
Virginia logo Virginia Cavaliers at Miami Hurricanes(#4)Miami logo
Saturday, October 28th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Miami -18.5 (48.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Miami 29 - Virginia: 26  (ACC)

 
Cavaliers (3 - 9) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 23 - 34 (24 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.7 - 8.3 (#125)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UVA 2nd straight Road Game
MIAMI 2nd straight Home Game
MIAMI is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Miami -21   (SP+ MIAMI -22)

Projected Score: UVA: 16 - MIAMI: 37 (52)
MIAMI Win prob: 91% | Cover: 44%
UVA Travel: 840 miles
Hurricanes (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (8 - 7)
Avg Score : 32 - 23 (35 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.8 - 4.2 (#30)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Virginia's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Virginia vs Tennessee+27.556.0L 13 - 49ON
Sat 9/9 Virginia vs James Madison+6.040.0L 35 - 36OY
Fri 9/15 Virginia at Maryland+16.548.5L 14 - 42ON
Fri 9/22 Virginia vs NC State+8.547.5L 21 - 24UY
Sat 9/30 Virginia at Boston College+5.052.5L 24 - 27UY
Sat 10/7 Virginia vs William & Mary-10.042.0W 27 - 13UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Virginia at North Carolina+24.058.0W 31 - 27UY
Sat 10/28 Virginia at Miami+18.548.0L 26 - 29OY
Sat 11/4 Virginia vs Georgia Tech-2.057.5L 17 - 45ON
Thu 11/9 Virginia at Louisville+20.549.5L 24 - 31OY
Sat 11/18 Virginia vs Duke+4.048.5W 30 - 27OY
Sat 11/25 Virginia vs Virginia Tech+2.552.5L 17 - 55ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule
Miami's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1 Miami vs Miami (OH)-16.545.0W 38 - 3UY
Sat 9/9 Miami vs Texas A&M+3.050.5W 48 - 33OY
Thu 9/14 Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-54.063.5W 48 - 7UN
Sat 9/23 Miami at Temple-23.046.5W 41 - 7OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7 Miami vs Georgia Tech-19.057.0L 20 - 23UN
Sat 10/14 Miami at North Carolina+2.557.5L 31 - 41ON
Sat 10/21 Miami vs Clemson+3.048.5W 28 - 20UY
Sat 10/28 Miami vs Virginia-18.548.0W 29 - 26ON
Sat 11/4 Miami at NC State-6.544.0L 6 - 20UN
Sat 11/11 Miami at Florida State+14.550.5L 20 - 27UY
Sat 11/18 Miami vs Louisville-1.546.5L 31 - 38ON
Fri 11/24 Miami at Boston College-13.550.5W 45 - 20OY
Thu 12/28 Miami vs Rutgers+3.041.0L 24 - 31ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UVA#88 (.15)41% (84)23.342% (82)3 (89)11841% (76)2513.68 (85)#117 (.26)45% (113)33.848% (118)43% (90)4.15 (103)55.31.71.2
MIAMI#37 (.27)43% (52)31.543% (64)3.35 (24)17344% (43)2583.99 (56)#37 (.14)39% (31)22.838% (27)39% (38)4.53 (125)57.81.71.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UVA#102 (.13)40% (103)43% (77)3.29 (25)13337% (113)2293.47 (106)#116 (.27)43% (80)44% (77)42% (77)4.04 (94)45.31.61.3
MIAMI#2 (.4)52% (1)56% (1)3.59 (4)16550% (7)3324.96 (2)#69 (.16)38% (26)38% (16)38% (40)4.02 (91)63.111.4



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UVA Offense1223.323.841%3.681.7213691182513.149%50%42%41%19%.15
MIAMI Defense1322.821.438.5%4.531.4 - - - - - 47%52%38%39%17%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UVA Defense1233.831.245.2%4.151.2 - - - - - 51%48%48%43%15%.26
MIAMI Offense1331.534.643.3%3.991.7224311732585.147%52%43%44%14%.27

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Virginia1231:242136%60%6.555.31.71.24.80.9128.1
Miami1331:5221.941%52%6.157.81.71.462.6229.4
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UVA Offense1249% (76)42% (82)37.8117.93.112 (116).11 (91)3 (89)70% (98)13% (123)0.89 (113)
MIAMI Defense1347% (36)38% (27) - - - - .07 (28)2.65 (12)70% (45)12% (27)1 (71)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UVA Defense1251% (87)48% (118) - - - - .26 (124)3.36 (116)76% (92)9% (108)1.03 (84)
MIAMI Offense1347% (96)43% (64)33.8173.25.124 (41).2 (44)3.35 (24)82% (10)8% (21)1.03 (51)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UVA Offense1250% (62)41% (76)20.733250.87.612.119 (78)14 (107).29 (67)1.6 (66)32% (83)29% (79).21 (105)6% (79)1.8 (126)
MIAMI Defense1352% (102)39% (38) - - - - - - 12 (37).22 (41)1.6 (60)33% (47)28% (33).3 (62)5% (104)2.2 (111)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UVA Defense1248% (48)43% (90) - - - - - - 8 (100).32 (97)1.6 (54)28% (127)30% (62).33 (76)6% (57)2.1 (85)
MIAMI Offense1352% (42)44% (43)21.833.62587.711.923 (51)14 (107).39 (28)1.6 (55)30% (36)32% (63).36 (60)6% (91)2 (87)

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: -5.47 #93
Virginia's Offense Rating: 14.69 #84
Virginia's Defense Rating: 14.60 #114
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #59
Virginia's 2023 Expected Record: 3.70 - 8.30
Virginia's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.3 #106
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #95
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #99

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Virginia: -5.47   Miami: 13.3

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia: -10.3   Miami: 11.7




Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 13.3 #22
Miami's Offense Rating: 19.30 #42
Miami's Defense Rating: 7.26 #41
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 64 #11
Miami's 2023 Expected Record: 8.80 - 4.20
Miami's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.7 #22
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #32
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #36

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Virginia Scoring
Offense: 23.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.8
Defense: 33.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.2

Virginia's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 37
Virginia 16


Total Points: 52

Miami Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.6
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.4

Miami's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/28Miami29Virginia26MiamiMiami -18.5Virginia48.0Over
202210/29Virginia12Miami14MiamiMiami -3Virginia48.5Under
202109/30Miami28Virginia30VirginiaMiami -3.5Virginia63.5Under
202010/24Miami19Virginia14MiamiMiami -13.5Virginia54.5Under
201910/11Miami17Virginia9MiamiMiami -2.5Miami44.5Under
201810/13Virginia16Miami13VirginiaMiami -7Virginia46.5Under
201711/18Miami44Virginia28MiamiMiami -20Virginia50.5Over
201611/12Virginia14Miami34MiamiMiami -11Miami55.5Under
201511/07Miami27Virginia21MiamiMiami -7.5Virginia53.0Under
201411/22Virginia30Miami13VirginiaMiami -7Virginia0
201311/23Miami45Virginia26MiamiMiami -19.5Virginia0
201211/10Virginia41Miami40Virginia
201110/27Miami21Virginia28Virginia
201010/30Virginia24Miami19Virginia
200911/07Miami52Virginia17Miami
200811/01Virginia17Miami24Miami
200711/10Miami0Virginia48Virginia
200611/18Virginia17Miami7Virginia
200511/26Miami25Virginia17Miami
200411/13Virginia21Miami31Miami
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Miami1222 Overs
Virginia897 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 74 - 71 - 63 - 1
Road Teams7 - 137 - 41 - 36 - 1

(#93) Virginia Info
Power Rating: -5.47 #93
Offense Rating: 14.69 #84
Defense Rating: 14.60 #114
Overall SP+ Rating: -10.3 #106
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #95
Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #99
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #59
Expected Record: 3.70 - 8.30


Virginia has won 2 straight
Virginia has won 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 4 (4 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Virginia Highlights

Virginia Deficiencies
Virginia Can Not Run the Ball (#4)
Virginia throws a Lot of Interceptions (#60)
Virginia Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Virginia does not Sack the QB (#97)
Virginia has a bad defense (#51)
Virginia has a bad defensive line (#63)
Virginia has a bad red zone defense (#104)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatMIAMIUVA
OverallOver#10#97
OffenseOff#13#83
DefenseDef#18#101
Special TeamsST#74#90
PassingPass#20#45
RushingRush#22#82
Run BlockRBLK#29#61
Pass BlockPBLK#11#116
Route RunningWR Rt#17#46
TacklingTkl#45#83
Run DefenseR Def#16#110
Pass Rush DefPRush#19#94
Coverage DefCov#43#78

Rematch from Week 9
Miami -18.5 (48.0)
Miami won vs Virginia this year (29-26)

Previous Matchups
Miami beat Virginia in 2023 (29-26)
Miami beat Virginia in 2022 (14-12)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hard Rock Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UVA | MIAMI
Depth Chart: UVA | MIAMI
Rosters: UVA | MIAMI
(#22) Miami Info
Power Rating: 13.3 #22
Offense Rating: 19.30 #42
Defense Rating: 7.26 #41
Overall SP+ Rating: 11.7 #22
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #32
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #36
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 64 #11
Expected Record: 8.80 - 4.20


Miami has won 1 straight
Miami has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 5 - 2 (3 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

Miami Highlights
Miami has a top Offensive Line (#31)
Miami Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Miami has a good run defense (#9)
Miami Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#61)
Miami Defensive Line is very good (#14)
Miami Front 7 is disruptive (#33)

Miami Deficiencies
Miami has a bad TO Margin (#28)
Miami throws a Lot of Interceptions (#60)
Miami has a bad red zone defense (#72)


  
Virginia's OC Des Kitchings
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Anthony Colandrea15424663%19581398.0
Tony Muskett (Tr)9314763%1031657.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Perris Jones7639325.243
Kobe Pace (Tr)12538213.122
Mike Hollins8027473.422
Anthony Colandrea7322503.130
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malik Washington1101426913.064
Malachi Fields58811514.039
Kobe Pace (Tr)1917639.375
Sackett Wood Jr.9141015.728

View Virginia's Full Roster
Virginia's DC John Rudzinski
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jonas Sanker10740111
James Jackson804175
Kamren Robinson715141
Coen King603015
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kameron Butler225310
Ben Smiley III154211
Paul Akere153140
Kamren Robinson715141
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jonas Sanker10740111
Dre Walker110005
Coen King603015

Miami's OC Shannon Dawson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tyler Van Dyke21933366%270319128.1
Emory Williams447162%470316.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Henry Parrish Jr.10062566.338
Mark Fletcher Jr.10551454.954
Donald Chaney Jr.9447825.129
Ajay Allen (Tr)7036155.230
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Xavier Restrepo851092612.848
Jacolby George57864815.285
Colbie Young47563512.057
Brashard Smith22263212.054

View Miami's Full Roster
Miami's DC Lance Guidry
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Francisco Mauigoa (Tr)7817863
James Williams721024
Kamren Kinchens523105
Corey Flagg Jr.477030
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Francisco Mauigoa (Tr)7817863
Rueben Bain Jr.4212841
Branson Deen (Tr)154320
Wesley Bissainthe417220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kamren Kinchens523105
Daryl Porter Jr.210014
James Williams721024