Virginia at Miami - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 28th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Miami -18.5 (48.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Miami 29 - Virginia: 26 (ACC)

Cavaliers (3 - 9) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (27 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.7 - 8.3 (#125)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 21.9 MPH
UVA 2nd straight Road Game
MIAMI 2nd straight Home Game
MIAMI is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Miami -21 (SP+ MIAMI -22)
Projected Score: UVA: 17 - MIAMI: 38 (60)
MIAMI Win prob: 91% | Cover: 44%
UVA Travel: 840 miles

Hurricanes (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (8 - 7)
Avg Score : 44 - 25 (48 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.8 - 4.2 (#30)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UVA Players
MIAMI Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Virginia's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Virginia vs Tennessee	+27.5	56.0	L 13 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/9	Virginia vs James Madison	+6.0	40.0	L 35 - 36	O	Y
Fri 9/15	Virginia at Maryland	+16.5	48.5	L 14 - 42	O	N
Fri 9/22	Virginia vs NC State	+8.5	47.5	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Virginia at Boston College	+5.0	52.5	L 24 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Virginia vs William & Mary	-10.0	42.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Virginia at North Carolina	+24.0	58.0	W 31 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Virginia at Miami	+18.5	48.0	L 26 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Virginia vs Georgia Tech	-2.0	57.5	L 17 - 45	O	N
Thu 11/9	Virginia at Louisville	+20.5	49.5	L 24 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Virginia vs Duke	+4.0	48.5	W 30 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Virginia vs Virginia Tech	+2.5	52.5	L 17 - 55	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule

Miami's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Miami vs Miami (OH)	-16.5	45.0	W 38 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Miami vs Texas A&M	+3.0	50.5	W 48 - 33	O	Y
Thu 9/14	Miami vs Bethune-Cookman	-54.0	63.5	W 48 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Miami at Temple	-23.0	46.5	W 41 - 7	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	Miami vs Georgia Tech	-19.0	57.0	L 20 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/14	Miami at North Carolina	+2.5	57.5	L 31 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/21	Miami vs Clemson	+3.0	48.5	W 28 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Miami vs Virginia	-18.5	48.0	W 29 - 26	O	N
Sat 11/4	Miami at NC State	-6.5	44.0	L 6 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/11	Miami at Florida State	+14.5	50.5	L 20 - 27	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Miami vs Louisville	-1.5	46.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
Fri 11/24	Miami at Boston College	-13.5	50.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Thu 12/28	Miami vs Rutgers	+3.0	41.0	L 24 - 31	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UVA	.08	40%	22.7	44%	3.2	123	37%	221	2.81	.13	41%	28.8	40%	41%	3.54	62.2	2.2	1.7
MIAMI	.13	44%	43.9	48%	3.09	128	42%	240	3.5	.15	41%	25.3	43%	40%	3.76	59.6	2.1	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UVA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MIAMI		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UVA Offense	10	22.7	26.7	39.7%	2.81	2.2	19	344	123	221	3.7	45%	54%	44%	37%	22%	.08
MIAMI Defense	12	25.3	17	41.3%	3.76	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	43%	40%	21%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UVA Defense	10	28.8	32.2	40.8%	3.54	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	40%	41%	15%	.13
MIAMI Offense	12	43.9	47.8	44.3%	3.5	2.1	21	368	128	240	3.7	45%	54%	48%	42%	17%	.13

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Virginia	10	27:30	19	32%	39%	7	62.2	2.2	1.7	5.1	3	0	28.2
Miami	12	30:42	21.2	40%	41%	7	59.6	2.1	2.1	6.9	3.1	3	28.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UVA Offense	10	45%	44%	32.9	123	3.7	13	.17	3.2	72%	12%	1.01
MIAMI Defense	12	52%	43%	-	-	-	-	.12	2.81	68%	14%	0.96

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UVA Defense	10	51%	40%	-	-	-	-	.08	3.26	67%	9%	0.87
MIAMI Offense	12	45%	48%	34.5	128.1	3.7	12	.09	3.09	70%	11%	0.78

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UVA Offense	10	54%	37%	18.5	34.2	221	6.5	12	7	12	.04	1.5	36%	33%	.42	10%	2
MIAMI Defense	12	47%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.21	1.8	32%	34%	.29	7%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UVA Defense	10	49%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	5	.19	1.4	30%	29%	.31	6%	2
MIAMI Offense	12	54%	42%	21.3	34.4	239.9	7	11.3	18	12	.2	1.5	31%	32%	.29	7%	1.8

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: -5.47 #93
Virginia's Offense Rating: 14.69 #84
Virginia's Defense Rating: 14.60 #114
2023 Talent Rating: 668.00 #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #59
Virginia's 2023 Expected Record: 3.70 - 8.30
Virginia's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.3 #106
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #95
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #99

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 758.94
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Virginia: -5.47 Miami: 13.3

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia: -10.3 Miami: 11.7

Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 13.3 #22
Miami's Offense Rating: 19.30 #42
Miami's Defense Rating: 7.26 #41
2023 Talent Rating: 976.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 64 #11
Miami's 2023 Expected Record: 8.80 - 4.20
Miami's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.7 #22
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #32
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #36

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 758.94
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Virginia Scoring
Offense: 22.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.7
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.2

Virginia's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Miami 38
Virginia 17

Projected Total Points: 60

Miami Scoring
Offense: 43.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 47.8
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Miami's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/28	Miami	29	Virginia	26	Miami	Miami -18.5	Virginia	48.0	Over
2022	10/29	Virginia	12	Miami	14	Miami	Miami -3	Virginia	48.5	Under
2021	09/30	Miami	28	Virginia	30	Virginia	Miami -3.5	Virginia	63.5	Under
2020	10/24	Miami	19	Virginia	14	Miami	Miami -13.5	Virginia	54.5	Under
2019	10/11	Miami	17	Virginia	9	Miami	Miami -2.5	Miami	44.5	Under
2018	10/13	Virginia	16	Miami	13	Virginia	Miami -7	Virginia	46.5	Under
2017	11/18	Miami	44	Virginia	28	Miami	Miami -20	Virginia	50.5	Over
2016	11/12	Virginia	14	Miami	34	Miami	Miami -11	Miami	55.5	Under
2015	11/07	Miami	27	Virginia	21	Miami	Miami -7.5	Virginia	53.0	Under
2014	11/22	Virginia	30	Miami	13	Virginia	Miami -7	Virginia	0
2013	11/23	Miami	45	Virginia	26	Miami	Miami -19.5	Virginia	0
2012	11/10	Virginia	41	Miami	40	Virginia
2011	10/27	Miami	21	Virginia	28	Virginia
2010	10/30	Virginia	24	Miami	19	Virginia
2009	11/07	Miami	52	Virginia	17	Miami
2008	11/01	Virginia	17	Miami	24	Miami
2007	11/10	Miami	0	Virginia	48	Virginia
2006	11/18	Virginia	17	Miami	7	Virginia
2005	11/26	Miami	25	Virginia	17	Miami
2004	11/13	Virginia	21	Miami	31	Miami

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Miami	12	2	2 Overs
Virginia	8	9	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 7	4 - 7	1 - 6	3 - 1
Road Teams	7 - 13	7 - 4	1 - 3	6 - 1

(#93) Virginia Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -5.47 #93
Offense Rating: 14.69 #84
Defense Rating: 14.60 #114
Overall SP+ Rating: -10.3 #106
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #95
Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #99
Talent Rating: 668.00 #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #59
Expected Record: 3.70 - 8.30

Team Profile

,
,

Virginia Ratings Matchup Miami

Power #93

#22

Off #84

#42

Def #114

#41

Talent #60

#15

SP+ #106

#22

SP+ Off #95

#32

SP+ Def #99

#36

Rematch from Week 9
Miami -18.5 (48.0)
Miami won vs Virginia this year (29-26)

Previous Matchups
Miami beat Virginia in 2023 (29-26)
Miami beat Virginia in 2022 (14-12)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hard Rock Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 82° - Wind: 22 mph

Team Information
Injuries: UVA | MIAMI
Depth Chart: UVA | MIAMI
Rosters: UVA | MIAMI

(#22) Miami Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 13.3 #22
Offense Rating: 19.30 #42
Defense Rating: 7.26 #41
Overall SP+ Rating: 11.7 #22
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #32
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #36
Talent Rating: 976.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 64 #11
Expected Record: 8.80 - 4.20

Team Profile

,
,

Virginia's OC Des Kitchings

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tony Muskett (Tr)	45	76	59%	545	3	3	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kobe Pace (Tr)	114	499	3	4.4	43
Tony Muskett (Tr)	27	98	4	3.6	18
Donte Hawthorne	1	12	0	12.0	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kobe Pace (Tr)	21	189	0	9.0	52
Demick Starling	3	56	0	18.7	27
Sackett Wood Jr.	3	18	1	6.0	8
Donte Hawthorne	1	2	0	2.0	2

View Virginia's Full Roster

Virginia's DC John Rudzinski

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jonas Sanker	98	9	2	1	4
Antonio Clary	48	3	1	1	3
Kameron Butler	43	3	3	8	2
Chico Bennett Jr.	39	8	1	5	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kameron Butler	43	3	3	8	2
Jonas Sanker	98	9	2	1	4
Antonio Clary	48	3	1	1	3
Chico Bennett Jr.	39	8	1	5	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jonas Sanker	98	9	2	1	4
Antonio Clary	48	3	1	1	3
Kameron Butler	43	3	3	8	2

Miami's OC Shannon Dawson

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tyler Van Dyke	43	68	63%	422	1	0	6.2
Jacurri Brown	34	66	52%	387	1	4	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brashard Smith	234	1330	14	5.7	71
Henry Parrish Jr.	131	693	10	5.3	42
Jacurri Brown	53	401	4	7.6	67
Donald Chaney Jr.	50	178	3	3.6	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Xavier Restrepo	69	1127	11	16.3	77
Jacolby George	53	752	8	14.2	49
Elijah Arroyo	35	590	7	16.9	74
Brashard Smith	39	327	4	8.4	33

View Miami's Full Roster

Miami's DC Lance Guidry

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Francisco Mauigoa (Tr)	96	11	2	5	5
Corey Flagg Jr.	81	5	1	1	0
Nyjalik Kelly	53	10	6	1	1
Jared Harrison-Hunte	40	8	7	5	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jahfari Harvey	30	13	8	9	1
Jared Harrison-Hunte	40	8	7	5	0
Nyjalik Kelly	53	10	6	1	1
Chantz Williams	18	7	4	1	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Daryl Porter Jr.	28	0	0	2	7
Francisco Mauigoa (Tr)	96	11	2	5	5
Chantz Williams	18	7	4	1	4