Virginia at Tennessee - 2023 Matchup Preview

Virginia Cavaliers vs Tennessee Volunteers

Saturday, September 2nd 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Tennessee -27.5 (56.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Tennessee 49 - Virginia: 13

Cavaliers (3 - 9) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (29 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.7 - 8.3 (#125)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Tennessee -19 (SP+ TENN -23)
Projected Score: UVA: 20 - TENN: 39 (58)
TENN Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
UVA Travel: 473 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Volunteers (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Josh Heupel (20 - 9)
Avg Score : 40 - 29 (42 - 29 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.4 - 4.6 (#38)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UVA Players
TENN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Virginia's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Virginia vs Tennessee	+27.5	56.0	L 13 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/9	Virginia vs James Madison	+6.0	40.0	L 35 - 36	O	Y
Fri 9/15	Virginia at Maryland	+16.5	48.5	L 14 - 42	O	N
Fri 9/22	Virginia vs NC State	+8.5	47.5	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Virginia at Boston College	+5.0	52.5	L 24 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Virginia vs William & Mary	-10.0	42.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Virginia at North Carolina	+24.0	58.0	W 31 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Virginia at Miami	+18.5	48.0	L 26 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Virginia vs Georgia Tech	-2.0	57.5	L 17 - 45	O	N
Thu 11/9	Virginia at Louisville	+20.5	49.5	L 24 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Virginia vs Duke	+4.0	48.5	W 30 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Virginia vs Virginia Tech	+2.5	52.5	L 17 - 55	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule

Tennessee's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Tennessee vs Virginia	-27.5	56.0	W 49 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Tennessee vs Austin Peay	-48.0	65.5	W 30 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/16	Tennessee at Florida	-5.0	57.0	L 16 - 29	U	N
Sat 9/23	Tennessee vs UTSA	-24.0	59.0	W 45 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Tennessee vs South Carolina	-12.0	59.0	W 41 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Tennessee vs Texas A&M	-3.0	54.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Tennessee at Alabama	+8.5	47.5	L 20 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/28	Tennessee at Kentucky	-4.0	50.5	W 33 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Tennessee vs UConn	-35.0	55.5	W 59 - 3	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Tennessee at Missouri	-1.0	58.5	L 7 - 36	U	N
Sat 11/18	Tennessee vs Georgia	+9.0	59.0	L 10 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/25	Tennessee vs Vanderbilt	-27.0	58.0	W 48 - 24	O	N
Mon 1/1	Tennessee vs Iowa	-4.5	37.0	W 35 - 0	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UVA	.08	40%	30.8	44%	3.2	123	37%	221	2.81	.13	41%	19.6	40%	41%	3.54	62.2	2.2	1.7
TENN	.37	51%	39.8	51%	3.3	199	51%	326	4.81	.18	41%	28.8	39%	43%	3.16	69.5	0.8	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UVA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TENN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UVA Offense	10	30.8	28.6	39.7%	2.81	2.2	19	344	123	221	3.7	45%	54%	44%	37%	22%	.08
TENN Defense	13	28.8	29	41.2%	3.16	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	44%	56%	39%	43%	16%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UVA Defense	10	19.6	23.2	40.8%	3.54	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	40%	41%	15%	.13
TENN Offense	13	39.8	42.3	51.1%	4.81	0.8	25	526	199	326	5	50%	50%	51%	51%	10%	.37

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Virginia	10	27:30	19	32%	39%	7	62.2	2.2	1.7	5.1	3	0	28.2
Tennessee	13	25:14	25.4	41%	68%	8.1	69.5	0.8	1.8	7	2.4	1	30.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UVA Offense	10	45%	44%	32.9	123	3.7	13	.17	3.2	72%	12%	1.01
TENN Defense	13	44%	39%	-	-	-	-	.04	2.65	70%	11%	0.98

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UVA Defense	10	51%	40%	-	-	-	-	.08	3.26	67%	9%	0.87
TENN Offense	13	50%	51%	40.2	199.5	5	40	.29	3.3	80%	7%	1.03

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UVA Offense	10	54%	37%	18.5	34.2	221	6.5	12	7	12	.04	1.5	36%	33%	.42	10%	2
TENN Defense	13	56%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.29	1.6	32%	32%	.33	5%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UVA Defense	10	49%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	5	.19	1.4	30%	29%	.31	6%	2
TENN Offense	13	50%	51%	22.3	32.5	326.1	10.1	14.6	38	3	.45	1.6	25%	32%	.4	3%	2.2

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: -5.47 #93
Virginia's Offense Rating: 14.69 #84
Virginia's Defense Rating: 14.60 #114
2023 Talent Rating: 622.70 #66
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #59
Virginia's 2023 Expected Record: 3.70 - 8.30
Virginia's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.3 #106
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #95
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #99

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Virginia: -5.47 Tennessee: 11.355

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia: -10.3 Tennessee: 13.0

Tennessee's Power Ratings
Tennessee's Power Rating: 11.355 #24
Tennessee's Offense Rating: 20.15 #36
Tennessee's Defense Rating: 5.94 #31
2023 Talent Rating: 821.07 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 48 #17
Tennessee's 2023 Expected Record: 8.40 - 4.60
Tennessee's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.0 #19
Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.4 #28
Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #31

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Virginia Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.2

Virginia's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Tennessee 39
Virginia 20

Projected Total Points: 58

Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 39.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 42.3
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 29

Tennessee's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/02	Tennessee	49	Virginia	13	Tennessee -27.5	Tennessee	56.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Tennessee	1	1	1 Overs
Virginia	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#93) UVA at (#24) TENN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UVA	TENN
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#93	#24
SP+SP+	#106	#19
Perf GradeGrade	#116	#37
OffenseOff	#97	#59
DefenseDef	#128	#33
Spec TeamsST	#112	#13
TalentTal	#66	#16
Blue ChipsBC%	#59	#17

Virginia Injury Report

Tennessee Injury Report

Virginia on Offense


CategoryCat	UVA Off	TENN Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#97	#33
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#84	#31
SP+SP+	#95	#31
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Virginia Run Game


CategoryCat	UVA Off	TENN Def
Run GameRun	#115	#68
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#79	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#44

Virginia Pass Game


CategoryCat	UVA Off	TENN Def
Pass GamePass	#58	#25
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#133	#11
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Tennessee on Offense


CategoryCat	TENN Off	UVA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#59	#128
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#36	#114
SP+SP+	#28	#99
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Tennessee Run Game


CategoryCat	TENN Off	UVA Def
Run GameRun	#22	#129
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#86	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#96

Tennessee Pass Game


CategoryCat	TENN Off	UVA Def
Pass GamePass	#53	#97
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#73	#127
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
TENN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'23 Profile: Remains Top 25 Contenders

UVA 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Nissan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Tennessee -27.5 (56.0)
Tennessee won vs Virginia this year (49-13)

Previous Matchups
Tennessee beat Virginia in 2023 (49-13)

UVA's OC Des Kitchings (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Anthony Colandrea	154	246	63%	1958	13	9	8.0
Tony Muskett (Tr)	93	147	63%	1031	6	5	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Perris Jones	76	393	2	5.2	43
Kobe Pace (Tr)	125	382	1	3.1	22
Mike Hollins	80	274	7	3.4	22
Anthony Colandrea	73	225	0	3.1	30

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Washington	110	1426	9	13.0	64
Malachi Fields	58	811	5	14.0	39
Kobe Pace (Tr)	19	176	3	9.3	75
Sackett Wood Jr.	9	141	0	15.7	28

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC John Rudzinski (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jonas Sanker	107	4	0	1	11
James Jackson	80	4	1	7	5
Kamren Robinson	71	5	1	4	1
Coen King	60	3	0	1	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kameron Butler	22	5	3	1	0
Ben Smiley III	15	4	2	1	1
Paul Akere	15	3	1	4	0
Kamren Robinson	71	5	1	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jonas Sanker	107	4	1	11
Dre Walker	11	0	0	5
Coen King	60	3	1	5

TENN's OC Joey Halzle (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Joe Milton	230	355	65%	2814	20	5	7.9
Nico Iamaleava	28	45	62%	314	2	0	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaylen Wright	137	1013	4	7.4	82
Dylan Sampson	106	603	7	5.7	44
Jabari Small	95	475	2	5.0	40
Joe Milton	78	299	7	3.8	81

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Squirrel White	68	804	2	11.8	83
Ramel Keyton	35	642	6	18.3	60
McCallan Castles (Tr)	22	283	5	12.9	43
Dont'E Thornton	13	224	1	17.2	47

View Tennessee's Full Roster

TENN's DC Tim Banks (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah Herring	79	5	1	1	1
Aaron Beasley	69	12	3	1	3
Jaylen McCollough	58	3	0	1	4
Wesley Walker	53	4	1	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
James Pearce Jr.	27	14	10	15	0
Tyler Baron	28	11	6	5	2
Omarr Norman-Lott (Tr)	26	6	6	1	0
Aaron Beasley	69	12	3	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kamal Hadden	19	0	0	1	7
Tamarion McDonald	40	4	1	1	4
Jaylen McCollough	58	3	0	1	4