App State at UL Monroe - 2023 Matchup Preview

App State Mountaineers at UL Monroe Warhawks

Saturday, September 30th 2023 (8:00 PM EDT)
Appalachian State -13.5 (50.5) (0) Open: 0.0
App State 41 - UL Monroe: 40 (Sun Belt)

Mountaineers (9 - 5) (6 - 7 - 1)
Coach Shawn Clark (28 - 14)
Avg Score : 33 - 27 (29 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#34)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

APP 2nd straight Road Game
ULM coming off BYE
APP is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: App State -19 (SP+ APP -25.5)
Projected Score: APP: 36 - ULM: 17 (54)
APP Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
APP Travel: 644 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Warhawks (2 - 10) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Terry Bowden (10 - 17)
Avg Score : 17 - 35 (21 - 34 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2.7 - 9.3 (#131)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
APP Players
ULM Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

App State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	App State vs Gardner-Webb	-22.5	51.0	W 45 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/9	App State at North Carolina	+18.0	58.0	L 34 - 40	O	Y
Sat 9/16	App State vs East Carolina	-7.5	48.5	W 43 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/23	App State at Wyoming	+3.0	45.0	L 19 - 22	U	Y
Sat 9/30	App State at UL Monroe	-13.5	50.5	W 41 - 40	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/10	App State vs Coastal Carolina	-4.5	59.0	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/21	App State at Old Dominion	-6.0	56.0	L 21 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/28	App State vs Southern Miss	-16.0	55.5	W 48 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/4	App State vs Marshall	-3.0	57.5	W 31 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/11	App State at Georgia State	+2.5	62.5	W 42 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/18	App State at James Madison	+10.0	56.5	W 26 - 23	U	Y
Sat 11/25	App State vs Georgia Southern	-7.5	62.5	W 55 - 27	O	Y
Sat 12/2	App State at Troy	+6.5	51.5	L 23 - 49	O	N
Sat 12/16	App State vs Miami (OH)	-6.5	41.0	W 13 - 9	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for App State's Schedule

UL Monroe's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	UL Monroe vs Army	+8.5	47.0	W 17 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/9	UL Monroe vs Lamar	-26.0	48.5	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/16	UL Monroe at Texas A&M	+36.5	53.5	L 3 - 47	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/30	UL Monroe vs App State	+13.5	50.5	L 40 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/7	UL Monroe vs South Alabama	+11.0	51.5	L 7 - 55	O	N
Sat 10/14	UL Monroe at Texas State	+18.5	64.5	L 20 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/21	UL Monroe at Georgia Southern	+16.5	60.5	L 28 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/28	UL Monroe vs Arkansas State	-1.0	55.5	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/4	UL Monroe at Southern Miss	+3.0	56.0	L 7 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/11	UL Monroe vs Troy	+23.5	47.5	L 14 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/18	UL Monroe at Ole Miss	+35.5	59.5	L 3 - 35	U	Y
Sat 11/25	UL Monroe at Louisiana	+12.5	53.0	L 21 - 52	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
APP	#41 (.24)	46% (28)	33.2	43% (75)	3.18 (55)	172	50% (11)	273	3.8 (77)	#79 (.2)	43% (76)	27	45% (93)	41% (58)	3.15 (17)	40.5	1.6	1.8
ULM	#124 (.06)	36% (128)	17.3	40% (97)	3.18 (56)	146	32% (133)	175	2.61 (130)	#107 (.24)	46% (117)	34.9	44% (78)	49% (132)	4.1 (97)	53.6	1.5	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
APP	#57 (.21)	44% (60)		45% (58)	3.01 (75)	157	43% (62)	273	3.89 (71)	#123 (.3)	49% (127)		51% (130)	47% (119)	4.78 (132)	57	2	1.2
ULM	#94 (.15)	37% (121)		40% (102)	2.93 (87)	173	33% (128)	135	3.33 (117)	#89 (.2)	47% (120)		53% (134)	39% (53)	4.12 (99)	43.3	1.3	1.1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
APP Offense	14	33.2	29.4	45.6%	3.8	1.6	24	445	172	273	4.5	51%	48%	43%	50%	16%	.24
ULM Defense	12	34.9	33.7	45.6%	4.1	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	44%	49%	15%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
APP Defense	14	27	30.9	42.6%	3.15	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	45%	41%	18%	.2
ULM Offense	12	17.3	21	35.6%	2.61	1.5	16	321	146	175	4.2	49%	50%	40%	32%	19%	.06

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
App State	14	31:15	23.7	42%	64%	4.4	40.5	1.6	1.8	6	2.5	2	29.3
UL Monroe	12	27:02	15.8	32%	35%	5.9	53.6	1.5	1.6	6.1	2	2	31

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
APP Offense	14	51% (58)	43% (75)	38.1	171.6	4.5	23 (46)	.09 (99)	3.18 (55)	71% (92)	9% (49)	0.97 (83)
ULM Defense	12	53% (107)	44% (78)	-	-	-	-	.11 (42)	3.06 (58)	75% (78)	11% (55)	0.9 (26)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
APP Defense	14	50% (59)	45% (93)	-	-	-	-	.23 (112)	3.41 (120)	79% (108)	11% (40)	1.1 (113)
ULM Offense	12	49% (78)	40% (97)	34.6	146.3	4.2	7 (131)	.11 (89)	3.18 (56)	74% (63)	12% (100)	0.92 (102)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
APP Offense	14	48% (75)	50% (11)	21.4	33.6	273.4	8.1	12.8	34 (9)	10 (56)	.44 (19)	1.6 (65)	29% (28)	37% (16)	.5 (19)	7% (108)	2.1 (45)
ULM Defense	12	46% (25)	49% (132)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.48 (132)	1.7 (97)	32% (68)	39% (130)	.52 (129)	5% (121)	2 (48)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
APP Defense	14	49% (72)	41% (58)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (15)	.2 (30)	1.5 (36)	31% (81)	33% (110)	.43 (117)	7% (29)	2.1 (89)
ULM Offense	12	50% (59)	32% (133)	14.8	28.8	174.8	6.1	11.9	15 (96)	13 (97)	.03 (131)	1.7 (22)	36% (124)	21% (133)	.12 (124)	7% (111)	2.3 (9)

App State's Power Ratings
App State's Power Rating: 0.14 #58
App State's Offense Rating: 19.75 #38
App State's Defense Rating: 8.38 #51
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
App State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 5.50
App State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.0 #55
App State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.3 #24
App State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.4 #102

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
App State: 0.14 UL Monroe: -17.47

SP+ Ratings Matchup
App State: 3.0 UL Monroe: -22.5

UL Monroe's Power Ratings
UL Monroe's Power Rating: -17.47 #132
UL Monroe's Offense Rating: 6.82 #131
UL Monroe's Defense Rating: 13.52 #108
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
UL Monroe's 2023 Expected Record: 2.70 - 9.30
UL Monroe's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -22.5 #132
UL Monroe's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.0 #117
UL Monroe's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #130

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

App State Scoring
Offense: 33.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.4
Defense: 27 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.9

App State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 1
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
App State 36
UL Monroe 17

Total Points: 54

UL Monroe Scoring
Offense: 17.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 34.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 33.7

UL Monroe's 2023 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/30	UL Monroe	40	App State	41	App State	Appalachian State -13.5	UL Monroe	50.5	Over
2021	10/30	App State	59	UL Monroe	28	App State	Appalachian State -26.5	App State	57.5	Over
2020	10/31	UL Monroe	13	App State	31	App State	Appalachian State -31.5	UL Monroe	0
2019	10/19	App State	52	UL Monroe	7	App State	Appalachian State -16.5	App State	65.5	Under
2017	11/04	UL Monroe	52	App State	45	UL Monroe	Appalachian State -8	UL Monroe	62.5	Over
2016	11/19	App State	42	UL Monroe	17	App State	Appalachian State -27.5	UL Monroe	52.0	Over
2015	10/17	UL Monroe	14	App State	59	App State	Appalachian State -8.5	App State	47.0	Over
2014	11/08	App State	31	UL Monroe	29	App State	Appalachian State -2	Push	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UL Monroe	1	4	5 Overs
App State	7	3	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 3	5 - 2	2 - 1	3 - 1
Road Teams	3 - 5	2 - 5	1 - 3	1 - 2

(#58) App State Info
Power Rating: 0.14 #58
Offense Rating: 19.75 #38
Defense Rating: 8.38 #51
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.0 #55
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.3 #24
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.4 #102
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 8.50 - 5.50

App State has lost 1 straight
App State has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 3 - 4 (3 - 3 - 1 vs Spread )

App State Highlights
App State has Really Good Running Game (#63)
App State offense is efficent (#38)
App State Defense Sacks the QB a lot

App State defense is really good in red zone (#96)
App State Secondary is very good (#8)
App State commits very few Penalties (#121)
App State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

App State Deficiencies
App State has a bad TO Margin (#131)
App State Fumbles a Lot (#128)
App State has a bad defensive line (#32)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	ULM	APP
OverallOver	#107	#33
OffenseOff	#110	#25
DefenseDef	#90	#56
Special TeamsST	#56	#104
PassingPass	#105	#30
RushingRush	#80	#61
Run BlockRBLK	#90	#29
Pass BlockPBLK	#58	#89
Route RunningWR Rt	#98	#13
TacklingTkl	#36	#56
Run DefenseR Def	#72	#105
Pass Rush DefPRush	#46	#29
Coverage DefCov	#107	#22

Rematch from Week 5
App State 13.5 (50.5)
App State won at UL Monroe this year (41-40)

Previous Matchups
App State beat UL Monroe in 2023 (41-40)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Malone Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: APP | ULM
Depth Chart: APP | ULM
Rosters: APP | ULM

(#132) UL Monroe Info
Power Rating: -17.47 #132
Offense Rating: 6.82 #131
Defense Rating: 13.52 #108
Overall SP+ Rating: -22.5 #132
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.0 #117
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #130
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 2.70 - 9.30

UL Monroe has lost 1 straight
UL Monroe has won 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 4 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

UL Monroe Highlights
UL Monroe does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#98)

UL Monroe Deficiencies
UL Monroe has a really bad Offense
UL Monroe offense is really bad (#127)
UL Monroe offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#75)
UL Monroe pass game is really bad (#121)
UL Monroe offense is bad on 3rd Downs
UL Monroe Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
UL Monroe Defense Gives up a Lot of Points at Home
UL Monroe has a bad defense (#130)

App State's OC Frank Ponce

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Joey Aguilar	292	459	64%	3754	33	10	8.2
Ryan Burger	7	11	64%	73	1	0	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nate Noel	173	825	5	4.8	68
Kanye Roberts	123	696	7	5.7	61
Maquel Haywood (Tr)	60	318	2	5.3	31
Anderson Castle	53	283	2	5.3	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kaedin Robinson	67	905	10	13.5	52
Christan Horn	36	566	6	15.7	52
Makai Jackson (Tr)	27	418	2	15.5	67
Dalton Stroman	20	390	3	19.5	77

View App State's Full Roster

App State's DC Scott Sloan

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Andrew Parker	109	6	2	4	2
Nicholas Ross	101	4	2	2	4
Caden Sullivan	64	4	1	1	1
Ethan Johnson	55	4	0	0	11

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nate Johnson	42	9	8	5	1
Michael Fletcher (Tr)	22	5	5	8	1
Santana Hopper	33	7	4	3	0
Shawn Collins (Tr)	23	4	3	8	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Ethan Johnson	55	4	0	11
Tyrek Funderburk (Tr)	47	3	1	8
E.J. Jackson (Tr)	47	3	0	7

UL Monroe's OC Matt Kubik

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jiya Wright	107	204	53%	1246	10	8	6.1
Blake Murphy	53	104	51%	721	4	5	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Hunter Smith	94	507	3	5.4	62
Isaiah Woullard	98	447	1	4.6	44
Bennett Galloway	44	287	0	6.5	41
Jiya Wright	99	264	2	2.7	44

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tyrone Howell	49	590	7	12.0	46
Dariyan Wiley	24	400	2	16.7	68
Devaughn Mortimer	15	291	0	19.4	54
NyNy Davis (Tr)	28	222	2	7.9	51

View UL Monroe's Full Roster

UL Monroe's DC Vic Koenning

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Michael Batton	79	3	1	3	0
Max Harris	79	1	0	0	2
Adin Huntington	62	16	9	4	2
JaTerious Evans	62	6	0	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Adin Huntington	62	16	9	4	2
Kenard Snyder	60	15	6	3	2
Dylan Howell	34	4	3	1	2
James Smith	11	4	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
A.J. Watts	50	1	1	6
Car'lin Vigers	54	0	0	3
Lucius Tillery	30	0	0	3