App State at Georgia State - 2023 Matchup Preview

App State Mountaineers at Georgia State Panthers

Saturday, November 11th 2023 (2:00 PM EST)
Georgia State -2.5 (62.5) (0) Open: 0.0
App State 42 - Georgia State: 14 (Sun Belt)

Mountaineers (9 - 5) (6 - 7 - 1)
Coach Shawn Clark (28 - 14)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (22 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#34)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

GAST 2nd straight Home Game
GAST is playing their 5th straight game
APP is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: App State -7.5 (SP+ APP -12.5)
Projected Score: APP: 33 - GAST: 26 (59)
GAST Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
APP Travel: 230 miles

Panthers (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Shawn Elliott (37 - 38)
Avg Score : 20 - 38 (22 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 7.3 (#83)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
APP Players
GAST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

App State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	App State vs Gardner-Webb	-22.5	51.0	W 45 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/9	App State at North Carolina	+18.0	58.0	L 34 - 40	O	Y
Sat 9/16	App State vs East Carolina	-7.5	48.5	W 43 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/23	App State at Wyoming	+3.0	45.0	L 19 - 22	U	Y
Sat 9/30	App State at UL Monroe	-13.5	50.5	W 41 - 40	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/10	App State vs Coastal Carolina	-4.5	59.0	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/21	App State at Old Dominion	-6.0	56.0	L 21 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/28	App State vs Southern Miss	-16.0	55.5	W 48 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/4	App State vs Marshall	-3.0	57.5	W 31 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/11	App State at Georgia State	+2.5	62.5	W 42 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/18	App State at James Madison	+10.0	56.5	W 26 - 23	U	Y
Sat 11/25	App State vs Georgia Southern	-7.5	62.5	W 55 - 27	O	Y
Sat 12/2	App State at Troy	+6.5	51.5	L 23 - 49	O	N
Sat 12/16	App State vs Miami (OH)	-6.5	41.0	W 13 - 9	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for App State's Schedule

Georgia State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Georgia State vs Rhode Island	-18.0	61.5	W 42 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/9	Georgia State vs UConn	-3.0	54.5	W 35 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Georgia State at Charlotte	-6.5	52.0	W 41 - 25	O	Y
Thu 9/21	Georgia State at Coastal Carolina	+4.5	62.5	W 30 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Georgia State vs Troy	-1.0	50.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Georgia State vs Marshall	-2.0	53.5	W 41 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Georgia State at Louisiana	+3.0	62.0	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Thu 10/26	Georgia State at Georgia Southern	-1.0	63.0	L 27 - 44	O	N
Sat 11/4	Georgia State vs James Madison	+6.0	53.0	L 14 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/11	Georgia State vs App State	-2.5	62.5	L 14 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/18	Georgia State at LSU	+32.5	73.5	L 14 - 56	U	N
Sat 11/25	Georgia State at Old Dominion	+2.0	49.5	L 24 - 25	U	Y
Sat 12/23	Georgia State vs Utah State	+2.0	58.0	W 45 - 22	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
APP	.25	45%	24.2	48%	3.37	205	42%	250	4.17	.22	41%	29.8	40%	43%	4.1	50.3	0.9	2.1
GAST	.17	39%	19.8	39%	3.09	216	40%	203	3.9	.16	43%	37.8	45%	41%	4.11	63.7	1.6	2.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
APP		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
GAST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
APP Offense	12	24.2	21.6	45.2%	4.17	0.9	23	455	205	250	5.2	54%	46%	48%	42%	11%	.25
GAST Defense	12	37.8	30.3	43%	4.11	2.7	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	45%	41%	18%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
APP Defense	12	29.8	37.4	41.4%	4.1	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	40%	43%	17%	.22
GAST Offense	12	19.8	21.5	39.2%	3.9	1.6	22	418	216	203	4.5	62%	38%	39%	40%	19%	.17

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
App State	12	30:35	23	39%	49%	5.5	50.3	0.9	2.1	5.7	2.4	1	32.1
Georgia State	12	28:52	22.2	41%	58%	7	63.7	1.6	2.7	6.1	2.3	1	27.9

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
APP Offense	12	54%	48%	39.5	204.9	5.2	27	.24	3.37	69%	7%	0.99
GAST Defense	12	55%	45%	-	-	-	-	.13	3.05	71%	12%	1.05

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
APP Defense	12	48%	40%	-	-	-	-	.13	2.95	71%	11%	1.07
GAST Offense	12	62%	39%	48.2	215.5	4.5	26	.13	3.09	75%	13%	1.06

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
APP Offense	12	46%	42%	18.8	29.8	250.4	8.4	13.3	28	6	.31	1.7	29%	30%	.34	4%	2.2
GAST Defense	12	44%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.24	1.6	30%	31%	.35	6%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
APP Defense	12	52%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.33	1.6	33%	31%	.43	6%	2.3
GAST Offense	12	38%	40%	14.4	24.8	202.6	8.2	14.1	18	7	.31	1.9	34%	30%	.26	6%	2.2

App State's Power Ratings
App State's Power Rating: 0.14 #58
App State's Offense Rating: 19.75 #38
App State's Defense Rating: 8.38 #51
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
App State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 5.50
App State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.0 #55
App State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.3 #24
App State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.4 #102

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
App State: 0.14 Georgia State: -5.745

SP+ Ratings Matchup
App State: 3.0 Georgia State: -9.4

Georgia State's Power Ratings
Georgia State's Power Rating: -5.745 #99
Georgia State's Offense Rating: 15.65 #76
Georgia State's Defense Rating: 11.67 #96
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Georgia State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30
Georgia State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.4 #100
Georgia State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #71
Georgia State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #109

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

App State Scoring
Offense: 24.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.6
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.4

App State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
App State 33
Georgia State 26

Projected Total Points: 59

Georgia State Scoring
Offense: 19.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.5
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 30.3

Georgia State's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Georgia State	20	App State	41	App State -3	App State	55.5	Over
2024	10/26	App State	33	Georgia State	26	App State -7.5	Georgia State	59.0	Push
2023	11/11	Georgia State	14	App State	42	Georgia State -2.5	App State	62.5	Under
2022	10/19	App State	42	Georgia State	17	Appalachian State -9.5	App State	60.5	Under
2021	10/02	Georgia State	16	App State	45	Appalachian State -10.5	App State	54.5	Over
2020	11/14	App State	17	Georgia State	13	Appalachian State -18	Georgia State	63.0	Under
2019	11/16	Georgia State	27	App State	56	Appalachian State -15	App State	61.0	Over
2018	11/17	App State	45	Georgia State	17	Appalachian State -27.5	App State	54.5	Over
2017	11/25	Georgia State	10	App State	31	Appalachian State -6	App State	50.5	Under
2016	10/01	App State	17	Georgia State	3	Appalachian State -21	Georgia State	52.0	Under
2015	10/10	Georgia State	3	App State	37	Appalachian State -18	App State	61.0	Under
2014	11/01	App State	44	Georgia State	0	Appalachian State -5.5	App State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Georgia State	0	3	4 Overs
App State	12	9	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 6	3 - 9	3 - 4	0 - 5
Road Teams	6 - 6	9 - 3	5 - 0	4 - 3

(#58) APP at (#99) GAST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	APP	GAST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#58	#99
SP+SP+	#55	#100
Perf GradeGrade	#40	#112
OffenseOff	#28	#89
DefenseDef	#70	#118
Spec TeamsST	#128	#99
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

App State Injury Report

Georgia State Injury Report

App State on Offense


CategoryCat	APP Off	GAST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#28	#118
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#38	#96
SP+SP+	#24	#109
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

App State Run Game


CategoryCat	APP Off	GAST Def
Run GameRun	#88	#50
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#35	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#91

App State Pass Game


CategoryCat	APP Off	GAST Def
Pass GamePass	#38	#136
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#105	#83
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Georgia State on Offense


CategoryCat	GAST Off	APP Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#89	#70
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#76	#51
SP+SP+	#71	#102
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Georgia State Run Game


CategoryCat	GAST Off	APP Def
Run GameRun	#91	#124
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#98	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#65

Georgia State Pass Game


CategoryCat	GAST Off	APP Def
Pass GamePass	#70	#26
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#15	#34
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
GAST 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Remains Average G5

APP 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Georgia State Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 11
Georgia State -2.5 (62.5)
App State won at Georgia State this year (42-14)

Previous Matchups
App State beat Georgia State last year (41-20)
App State beat Georgia State in 2024 (33-26)
App State beat Georgia State in 2023 (42-14)

APP's OC Frank Ponce (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Joey Aguilar	292	459	64%	3754	33	10	8.2
Ryan Burger	7	11	64%	73	1	0	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nate Noel	173	825	5	4.8	68
Kanye Roberts	123	696	7	5.7	61
Maquel Haywood (Tr)	60	318	2	5.3	31
Anderson Castle	53	283	2	5.3	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kaedin Robinson	67	905	10	13.5	52
Christan Horn	36	566	6	15.7	52
Makai Jackson (Tr)	27	418	2	15.5	67
Dalton Stroman	20	390	3	19.5	77

View App State's Full Roster

APP's DC Scott Sloan (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Andrew Parker	109	6	2	4	2
Nicholas Ross	101	4	2	2	4
Caden Sullivan	64	4	1	1	1
Ethan Johnson	55	4	0	0	11

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nate Johnson	42	9	8	5	1
Michael Fletcher (Tr)	22	5	5	8	1
Santana Hopper	33	7	4	3	0
Shawn Collins (Tr)	23	4	3	8	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Ethan Johnson	55	4	0	11
Tyrek Funderburk (Tr)	47	3	1	8
E.J. Jackson (Tr)	47	3	0	7

GAST's OC Trent McKnight (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Darren Grainger	244	358	68%	2625	20	7	7.3
Mikele Colasurdo	5	8	63%	47	0	0	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marcus Carroll	274	1350	13	4.9	63
Darren Grainger	159	736	10	4.6	65
Freddie Brock (Tr)	30	307	1	10.2	60
KZ Adams	35	61	0	1.7	6

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Robert Lewis	70	881	7	12.6	97
Tailique Williams	49	615	6	12.6	78
Jacari Carter (Tr)	38	276	0	7.3	32
Cadarrius Thompson	25	266	3	10.6	37

View Georgia State's Full Roster

GAST's DC Chad Staggs (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jontrey Hunter	94	7	2	2	4
Justin Abraham	82	8	4	1	2
Jeremiah Johnson	76	5	1	0	0
TyGee Leach (Tr)	70	7	0	1	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Javon Denis	31	7	5	6	0
Kevin Swint (Tr)	32	8	4	3	0
Justin Abraham	82	8	4	1	2
Henry Bryant (Tr)	36	6	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryquice Brown	34	1	0	1	6
TyGee Leach (Tr)	70	7	0	1	6
Jontrey Hunter	94	7	2	2	4