Southern Miss at App State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Southern Miss Golden Eagles at App State Mountaineers

Saturday, October 28th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Appalachian State -16 (55.5) (0) Open: 0.0
App State 48 - Southern Miss: 38 (Sun Belt)

Golden Eagles (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Will Hall (11 - 17)
Avg Score : 29 - 27 (28 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

USM 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: App State -17 (SP+ APP -18)
Projected Score: USM: 19 - APP: 36 (55)
APP Win prob: 88% | Cover: 54%
USM Travel: 553 miles, 1 hrs behind

Mountaineers (9 - 5) (6 - 7 - 1)
Coach Shawn Clark (28 - 14)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (27 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#34)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USM Players
APP Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Southern Miss's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Southern Miss vs Alcorn State	-24.0	47.5	W 40 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Southern Miss at Florida State	+31.0	54.0	L 13 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/16	Southern Miss vs Tulane	+8.0	47.5	L 3 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/23	Southern Miss at Arkansas State	-7.0	46.5	L 37 - 44	O	N
Sat 9/30	Southern Miss vs Texas State	+6.5	60.0	L 36 - 50	O	N
Sat 10/7	Southern Miss vs Old Dominion	-3.0	56.5	L 13 - 17	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/17	Southern Miss at South Alabama	+18.5	51.0	L 3 - 55	O	N
Sat 10/28	Southern Miss at App State	+16.0	55.5	L 38 - 48	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Southern Miss vs UL Monroe	-3.0	56.0	W 24 - 7	U	Y
Thu 11/9	Southern Miss at Louisiana	+8.5	51.5	W 34 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Southern Miss at Mississippi State	+18.5	47.5	L 20 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/25	Southern Miss vs Troy	+16.5	48.5	L 17 - 35	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Southern Miss's Schedule

App State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	App State vs Gardner-Webb	-22.5	51.0	W 45 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/9	App State at North Carolina	+18.0	58.0	L 34 - 40	O	Y
Sat 9/16	App State vs East Carolina	-7.5	48.5	W 43 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/23	App State at Wyoming	+3.0	45.0	L 19 - 22	U	Y
Sat 9/30	App State at UL Monroe	-13.5	50.5	W 41 - 40	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/10	App State vs Coastal Carolina	-4.5	59.0	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/21	App State at Old Dominion	-6.0	56.0	L 21 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/28	App State vs Southern Miss	-16.0	55.5	W 48 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/4	App State vs Marshall	-3.0	57.5	W 31 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/11	App State at Georgia State	+2.5	62.5	W 42 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/18	App State at James Madison	+10.0	56.5	W 26 - 23	U	Y
Sat 11/25	App State vs Georgia Southern	-7.5	62.5	W 55 - 27	O	Y
Sat 12/2	App State at Troy	+6.5	51.5	L 23 - 49	O	N
Sat 12/16	App State vs Miami (OH)	-6.5	41.0	W 13 - 9	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USM	.11	39%	28.8	40%	2.8	142	39%	208	3.69	.1	36%	27.4	37%	37%	3.86	59.5	2	1.8
APP	.25	45%	24.2	48%	3.37	205	42%	250	4.17	.22	41%	29.8	40%	43%	4.1	50.3	0.9	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
APP		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USM Offense	13	28.8	28.4	38.6%	3.69	2	18	349	142	208	3.9	53%	45%	40%	39%	19%	.11
APP Defense	12	29.8	26.7	41.4%	4.1	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	40%	43%	17%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USM Defense	13	27.4	27.6	36.4%	3.86	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	37%	37%	18%	.1
APP Offense	12	24.2	27	45.2%	4.17	0.9	23	455	205	250	5.2	54%	46%	48%	42%	11%	.25

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Southern Miss	13	28:38	17.9	34%	63%	6.7	59.5	2	1.8	7.8	3	3	32.3
App State	12	30:35	23	39%	49%	5.5	50.3	0.9	2.1	5.7	2.4	1	32.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USM Offense	13	53%	40%	36.6	141.7	3.9	15	.06	2.8	60%	13%	0.97
APP Defense	12	48%	40%	-	-	-	-	.13	2.95	71%	11%	1.07

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USM Defense	13	50%	37%	-	-	-	-	.08	2.79	74%	13%	1.03
APP Offense	12	54%	48%	39.5	204.9	5.2	27	.24	3.37	69%	7%	0.99

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USM Offense	13	45%	39%	14.7	26.6	207.5	7.8	14.1	20	14	.25	1.7	33%	26%	.26	6%	2.2
APP Defense	12	52%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.33	1.6	33%	31%	.43	6%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USM Defense	13	48%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	16	.18	1.7	36%	27%	.21	6%	2.1
APP Offense	12	46%	42%	18.8	29.8	250.4	8.4	13.3	28	6	.31	1.7	29%	30%	.34	4%	2.2

Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -10.22 #119
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 11.32 #116
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 12.99 #102
2023 Talent Rating: 425.21 #106
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Southern Miss's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Southern Miss's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #118
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #85
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #125

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 437.55
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -10.22 App State: 4.07

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -15.2 App State: 3.0

App State's Power Ratings
App State's Power Rating: 4.07 #58
App State's Offense Rating: 19.75 #38
App State's Defense Rating: 8.38 #51
2023 Talent Rating: 517.56 #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
App State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 5.50
App State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.0 #55
App State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.3 #24
App State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.4 #102

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 437.55
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.4
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.6

Southern Miss's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
App State 36
Southern Miss 19

Projected Total Points: 55

App State Scoring
Offense: 24.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 27
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.7

App State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/13	Southern Miss	38	App State	22	App State -3	Southern Miss	55.5	Over
2023	10/28	App State	48	Southern Miss	38	Appalachian State -16	Southern Miss	55.5	Over
2014	09/20	Southern Miss	21	App State	20	Southern Mississippi -4	App State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
App State	1	1	2 Overs
Southern Miss	2	2	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 0	1 - 2	0 - 2	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 3	2 - 1	0 - 1	2 - 0

(#119) USM at (#58) APP

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USM	APP
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#119	#58
SP+SP+	#118	#55
Perf GradeGrade	#123	#40
OffenseOff	#120	#28
DefenseDef	#105	#70
Spec TeamsST	#108	#128
TalentTal	#106	#84
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Southern Miss Injury Report

App State Injury Report

Southern Miss on Offense


CategoryCat	USM Off	APP Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#120	#70
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#116	#51
SP+SP+	#85	#102
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Southern Miss Run Game


CategoryCat	USM Off	APP Def
Run GameRun	#55	#124
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#120	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#65

Southern Miss Pass Game


CategoryCat	USM Off	APP Def
Pass GamePass	#123	#26
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#117	#34
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

App State on Offense


CategoryCat	APP Off	USM Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#28	#105
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#38	#102
SP+SP+	#24	#125
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

App State Run Game


CategoryCat	APP Off	USM Def
Run GameRun	#88	#47
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#35	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#125

App State Pass Game


CategoryCat	APP Off	USM Def
Pass GamePass	#38	#135
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#105	#53
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
APP 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

USM 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kidd Brewer Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
App State -16.0 (55.5)
App State won vs Southern Miss this year (48-38)

Previous Matchups
Southern Miss beat App State last year (38-22)
App State beat Southern Miss in 2023 (48-38)

USM's OC Sam Gregg (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Billy Wiles (Tr)	158	290	55%	1916	11	7	6.6
Ethan Crawford	19	38	50%	246	3	0	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Frank Gore Jr.	231	1131	10	4.9	75
Rodrigues Clark (Tr)	76	429	2	5.6	59
Kenyon Clay	40	179	1	4.5	28
Ethan Crawford	42	96	1	2.3	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jakarius Caston	33	621	6	18.8	80
Latreal Jones	36	498	3	13.8	43
Tiaquelin Mims	39	445	2	11.4	37
Frank Gore Jr.	27	221	3	8.2	33

View Southern Miss's Full Roster

USM's DC Dan O'Brien (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Lawrence (Tr)	72	1	1	0	1
Jay Stanley	55	2	0	0	5
Hayes Maples	51	1	1	3	0
Swayze Bozeman	51	4	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalil Clemons	26	10	6	6	1
Josh Ratcliff	28	4	4	0	0
Averie Habas	13	3	3	1	0
Ja'Len Sims	28	3	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jay Stanley	55	2	0	5
Markel McLaurin	31	3	2	5
MJ Daniels (Tr)	26	0	0	4

APP's OC Frank Ponce (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Joey Aguilar	292	459	64%	3754	33	10	8.2
Ryan Burger	7	11	64%	73	1	0	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nate Noel	173	825	5	4.8	68
Kanye Roberts	123	696	7	5.7	61
Maquel Haywood (Tr)	60	318	2	5.3	31
Anderson Castle	53	283	2	5.3	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kaedin Robinson	67	905	10	13.5	52
Christan Horn	36	566	6	15.7	52
Makai Jackson (Tr)	27	418	2	15.5	67
Dalton Stroman	20	390	3	19.5	77

View App State's Full Roster

APP's DC Scott Sloan (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Andrew Parker	109	6	2	4	2
Nicholas Ross	101	4	2	2	4
Caden Sullivan	64	4	1	1	1
Ethan Johnson	55	4	0	0	11

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nate Johnson	42	9	8	5	1
Michael Fletcher (Tr)	22	5	5	8	1
Santana Hopper	33	7	4	3	0
Shawn Collins (Tr)	23	4	3	8	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Ethan Johnson	55	4	0	11
Tyrek Funderburk (Tr)	47	3	1	8
E.J. Jackson (Tr)	47	3	0	7