East Carolina at App State - 2023 Matchup Preview

East Carolina Pirates at App State Mountaineers

Saturday, September 16th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Appalachian State -7.5 (48.5) (0) Open: 0.0
App State 43 - East Carolina: 28

Pirates (2 - 10) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mike Houston (22 - 27)
Avg Score : 32 - 27 (29 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.5 - 7.5 (#110)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Light Rain Predicted
Our Line: App State -15.5 (SP+ APP -16)
Projected Score: ECU: 19 - APP: 35 (60)
APP Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
ECU Travel: 246 miles

Mountaineers (9 - 5) (6 - 7 - 1)
Coach Shawn Clark (28 - 14)
Avg Score : 27 - 33 (29 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#34)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ECU Players
APP Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

East Carolina's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	East Carolina at Michigan	+36.0	53.5	L 3 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/9	East Carolina vs Marshall	+3.0	43.5	L 13 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/16	East Carolina at App State	+7.5	48.5	L 28 - 43	O	N
Sat 9/23	East Carolina vs Gardner-Webb	-13.0	51.0	W 44 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/30	East Carolina at Rice	+3.5	47.0	L 17 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/12	East Carolina vs SMU	+11.5	48.5	L 10 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/21	East Carolina vs Charlotte	-6.0	39.5	L 7 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/28	East Carolina at UTSA	+17.5	48.0	L 27 - 41	O	Y
Sat 11/4	East Carolina vs Tulane	+17.0	46.0	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/11	East Carolina at Florida Atlantic	+7.5	44.5	W 22 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/18	East Carolina at Navy	+2.5	30.5	L 0 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/25	East Carolina vs Tulsa	-4.5	44.5	L 27 - 29	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for East Carolina's Schedule

App State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	App State vs Gardner-Webb	-22.5	51.0	W 45 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/9	App State at North Carolina	+18.0	58.0	L 34 - 40	O	Y
Sat 9/16	App State vs East Carolina	-7.5	48.5	W 43 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/23	App State at Wyoming	+3.0	45.0	L 19 - 22	U	Y
Sat 9/30	App State at UL Monroe	-13.5	50.5	W 41 - 40	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/10	App State vs Coastal Carolina	-4.5	59.0	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/21	App State at Old Dominion	-6.0	56.0	L 21 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/28	App State vs Southern Miss	-16.0	55.5	W 48 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/4	App State vs Marshall	-3.0	57.5	W 31 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/11	App State at Georgia State	+2.5	62.5	W 42 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/18	App State at James Madison	+10.0	56.5	W 26 - 23	U	Y
Sat 11/25	App State vs Georgia Southern	-7.5	62.5	W 55 - 27	O	Y
Sat 12/2	App State at Troy	+6.5	51.5	L 23 - 49	O	N
Sat 12/16	App State vs Miami (OH)	-6.5	41.0	W 13 - 9	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ECU	.28	45%	32	45%	3.08	171	45%	290	3.84	.24	45%	27.3	42%	48%	4.14	37.6	0.5	1.5
APP	.25	45%	26.6	48%	3.37	205	42%	250	4.17	.22	41%	32.9	40%	43%	4.1	50.3	0.9	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ECU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
APP		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ECU Offense	13	32	29	45%	3.84	0.5	23	461	171	290	5.2	46%	54%	45%	45%	17%	.28
APP Defense	12	32.9	24.8	41.4%	4.1	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	40%	43%	17%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ECU Defense	13	27.3	34.7	45.1%	4.14	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	39%	59%	42%	48%	18%	.24
APP Offense	12	26.6	29.4	45.2%	4.17	0.9	23	455	205	250	5.2	54%	46%	48%	42%	11%	.25

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
East Carolina	13	31:11	22.5	46%	45%	4.3	37.6	0.5	1.5	5.4	1.8	2	30
App State	12	30:35	23	39%	49%	5.5	50.3	0.9	2.1	5.7	2.4	1	32.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ECU Offense	13	46%	45%	32.5	170.6	5.2	25	.21	3.08	68%	9%	1.13
APP Defense	12	48%	40%	-	-	-	-	.13	2.95	71%	11%	1.07

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ECU Defense	13	39%	42%	-	-	-	-	.09	2.83	59%	11%	0.96
APP Offense	12	54%	48%	39.5	204.9	5.2	27	.24	3.37	69%	7%	0.99

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ECU Offense	13	54%	45%	24.8	37.2	290.5	7.8	11.7	28	5	.35	1.5	32%	34%	.49	8%	2.1
APP Defense	12	52%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.33	1.6	33%	31%	.43	6%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ECU Defense	13	59%	48%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.39	1.5	31%	36%	.4	7%	2.1
APP Offense	12	46%	42%	18.8	29.8	250.4	8.4	13.3	28	6	.31	1.7	29%	30%	.34	4%	2.2

East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: -9.62 #117
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 4.42 #132
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 4.62 #25
2023 Talent Rating: 566.00 #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #69
East Carolina's 2023 Expected Record: 4.50 - 7.50
East Carolina's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.3 #111
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.1 #126
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #81

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 492.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
East Carolina: -9.62 App State: 4.07

SP+ Ratings Matchup
East Carolina: -13.3 App State: 3.0

App State's Power Ratings
App State's Power Rating: 4.07 #58
App State's Offense Rating: 19.75 #38
App State's Defense Rating: 8.38 #51
2023 Talent Rating: 592.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
App State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 5.50
App State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.0 #55
App State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.3 #24
App State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.4 #102

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 393.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32 PPG
Offense on Road: 29
Defense: 27.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.7

East Carolina's 2023 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
App State 35
East Carolina 19

Projected Total Points: 60

App State Scoring
Offense: 26.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.4
Defense: 32.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.8

App State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 1
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/14	East Carolina	19	App State	21	App State	East Carolina -0.5	App State	56.5	Under
2023	09/16	App State	43	East Carolina	28	App State	Appalachian State -7.5	App State	48.5	Over
2021	09/02	App State	33	East Carolina	19	App State	Appalachian State -9	App State	55.5	Under
2012	09/01	East Carolina	35	App State	13	East Carolina
2009	09/05	East Carolina	29	App State	24	East Carolina

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
App State	3	3	1 Overs
East Carolina	2	0	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 1	2 - 1	2 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 4	1 - 2	0 - 0	1 - 2

(#117) East Carolina Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -9.62 #117
Offense Rating: 4.42 #132
Defense Rating: 4.62 #25
Overall SP+ Rating: -13.3 #111
Offense SP+ Rating: 15.1 #126
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #81
Talent Rating: 566.00 #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #69
Expected Record: 4.50 - 7.50

Team Profile

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East Carolina Ratings Matchup App State

Power #117

#58

Off #132

#38

Def #25

#51

Talent #79

#75

SP+ #111

#55

SP+ Off #126

#24

SP+ Def #81

#102

Rematch from Week 3
App State -7.5 (48.5)
App State won vs East Carolina this year (43-28)

Previous Matchups
App State beat East Carolina last year (21-19)
App State beat East Carolina in 2023 (43-28)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kidd Brewer Stadium
Conditions: Light Rain
Temp: 71° - Wind: 10 mph
Rain: 0.004

Team Information
Injuries: ECU | APP
Depth Chart: ECU | APP
Rosters: ECU | APP

(#58) App State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 4.07 #58
Offense Rating: 19.75 #38
Defense Rating: 8.38 #51
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.0 #55
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.3 #24
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.4 #102
Talent Rating: 592.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 8.50 - 5.50

Team Profile

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East Carolina's OC Donnie Kirkpatrick

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Mason Garcia	3	8	38%	19	0	0	2.4
David Chapeau	1	1	100%	23	0	0	23.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rahjai Harris	206	1166	11	5.7	86
Gerald Green (Tr)	111	545	3	4.9	51
Jhari Patterson	7	91	0	13.0	30
Mason Garcia	6	7	0	1.2	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jhari Patterson	33	281	1	8.5	27
Tyler Savage	14	193	1	13.8	34
Ryan King (Tr)	13	151	0	11.6	27
Gerald Green (Tr)	9	134	1	14.9	83

View East Carolina's Full Roster

East Carolina's DC Blake Harrell

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyquan King (Tr)	111	6	3	6	0
Omar Rogers (Tr)	105	6	1	2	2
Michael Edwards III	75	9	1	2	4
Devon King	46	0	0	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Elijah Morris	31	6	4	2
Tyquan King (Tr)	111	6	3	6
Chad Stephens	36	4	1	1
Suirad Ware	21	3	1	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Michael Edwards III	75	9	1	2	4
Antoine Jackson	13	1	0	0	3
Shavon Revel	8	1	0	0	2

App State's OC Frank Ponce

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ryan Burger	8	19	42%	88	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nate Noel	163	818	3	5.0	64
Ahmani Marshall	149	713	7	4.8	29
Maquel Haywood (Tr)	29	148	1	5.1	18
Ryan Burger	17	70	1	4.1	57

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Christan Horn	19	367	1	19.3	83
Eli Wilson	25	292	5	11.7	34
Milan Tucker	13	145	0	11.2	52
Ahmani Marshall	11	71	0	6.5	14

View App State's Full Roster

App State's DC Scott Sloan

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caden Sullivan	35	1	0	2	1
Ronald Clarke	30	0	0	1	0
Montez Kelley	26	2	1	0	0
Avarion Cole	24	1	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Michael Fletcher (Tr)	16	4	4	6	0
Trevor Moffitt	18	4	2	1	0
Kevon Haigler	2	2	1	0	1
Montez Kelley	26	2	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caden Sullivan	35	1	0	2	1
Omari Philyaw	10	0	0	0	1
Kevon Haigler	2	2	1	0	1