LSU at Ole Miss - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 30th 2023 (6:00 PM EDT)
LSU -3 (67.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Ole Miss 55 - LSU: 49 (SEC)

Tigers (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brian Kelly (12 - 5)
Avg Score : 46 - 28 (42 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#16)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MISS is playing their 5th straight game
LSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: LSU -1.5 (SP+ LSU -2.5)
Projected Score: LSU: 34 - MISS: 33 (67)
LSU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
LSU Travel: 289 miles

Rebels (11 - 2) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Lane Kiffin (26 - 13)
Avg Score : 35 - 23 (44 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
LSU Players
MISS Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

LSU's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	LSU vs Florida State	-2.0	56.5	L 24 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/9	LSU vs Grambling	-56.5	61.5	W 72 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/16	LSU at Mississippi State	-9.5	54.0	W 41 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/23	LSU vs Arkansas	-17.5	55.0	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/30	LSU at Ole Miss	-3.0	67.0	L 49 - 55	O	N
Sat 10/7	LSU at Missouri	-6.0	63.5	W 49 - 39	O	Y
Sat 10/14	LSU vs Auburn	-11.0	60.0	W 48 - 18	O	Y
Sat 10/21	LSU vs Army	-33.0	60.0	W 62 - 0	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	LSU at Alabama	+3.0	61.5	L 28 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/11	LSU vs Florida	-14.0	68.5	W 52 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/18	LSU vs Georgia State	-32.5	73.5	W 56 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/25	LSU vs Texas A&M	-10.5	67.5	W 42 - 30	O	Y
Mon 1/1	LSU vs Wisconsin	-9.5	59.5	W 35 - 31	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for LSU's Schedule

Ole Miss's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Ole Miss vs Mercer	-35.0	59.5	W 73 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Ole Miss at Tulane	-8.0	64.0	W 37 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Ole Miss vs Georgia Tech	-17.0	61.5	W 48 - 23	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Ole Miss at Alabama	+7.0	56.0	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Ole Miss vs LSU	+3.0	67.0	W 55 - 49	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Ole Miss vs Arkansas	-13.0	61.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Ole Miss at Auburn	-6.5	55.5	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt	-24.0	62.0	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Ole Miss vs Texas A&M	-3.0	52.5	W 38 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/11	Ole Miss at Georgia	+11.0	59.0	L 17 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/18	Ole Miss vs UL Monroe	-35.5	59.5	W 35 - 3	U	N
Thu 11/23	Ole Miss at Mississippi State	-11.0	56.0	W 17 - 7	U	N
Sat 12/30	Ole Miss vs Penn State	+5.5	53.0	W 38 - 25	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LSU	#1 (.52)	56% (2)	45.5	58% (1)	3.9 (1)	197	54% (3)	309	4.86 (8)	#126 (.32)	45% (105)	28	45% (92)	45% (113)	4.55 (126)	48.2	0.5	1
MISS	#30 (.28)	44% (44)	35.1	44% (54)	2.94 (100)	176	45% (31)	286	4.72 (13)	#68 (.18)	42% (62)	22.5	43% (74)	41% (54)	3.64 (55)	59.1	0.5	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LSU	#30 (.25)	45% (38)		42% (89)	2.92 (90)	108	47% (24)	291	3.99 (60)	#92 (.21)	41% (60)		41% (54)	41% (73)	3.44 (30)	45.7	1.2	1
MISS	#4 (.34)	47% (19)		44% (76)	3.02 (72)	164	51% (3)	317	4 (58)	#6 (.04)	35% (3)		35% (6)	36% (13)	2.98 (8)	68.5	0.9	1.6

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LSU Offense	13	45.5	41.8	56.1%	4.86	0.5	24	506	197	309	6.3	47%	53%	58%	54%	11%	.52
MISS Defense	13	22.5	20.6	41.6%	3.64	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	43%	41%	18%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LSU Defense	13	28	37.5	44.8%	4.55	1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	45%	45%	16%	.32
MISS Offense	13	35.1	44.1	44.4%	4.72	0.5	23	462	176	286	4.3	54%	45%	44%	45%	15%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
LSU	13	26:37	23.7	56%	43%	5.7	48.2	0.5	1	5.1	2	1	29.2
Ole Miss	13	27:43	23.5	37%	69%	7.2	59.1	0.5	1.4	5.9	2.6	1	29

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LSU Offense	13	47% (95)	58% (1)	31.2	197	6.3	32 (10)	.45 (1)	3.9 (1)	69% (103)	6% (2)	1.08 (27)
MISS Defense	13	50% (62)	43% (74)	-	-	-	-	.14 (70)	3.21 (96)	86% (127)	11% (30)	0.98 (58)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LSU Defense	13	49% (51)	45% (92)	-	-	-	-	.24 (113)	3.22 (97)	91% (132)	10% (79)	1.07 (99)
MISS Offense	13	54% (37)	44% (54)	41.1	176.5	4.3	29 (22)	.17 (60)	2.94 (100)	70% (95)	11% (80)	1.05 (44)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LSU Offense	13	53% (38)	54% (3)	19.6	28.2	308.6	11	15.7	41 (2)	4 (2)	.59 (4)	1.7 (33)	24% (4)	45% (1)	.74 (1)	5% (29)	2.1 (40)
MISS Defense	13	49% (70)	41% (54)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.26 (59)	1.6 (79)	32% (65)	27% (26)	.23 (31)	7% (43)	2 (35)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LSU Defense	13	51% (86)	45% (113)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.41 (123)	1.7 (112)	32% (64)	34% (118)	.56 (132)	6% (54)	2.5 (132)
MISS Offense	13	45% (97)	45% (31)	19.7	30.4	285.6	9.4	14.5	26 (31)	6 (14)	.45 (17)	1.7 (21)	32% (72)	33% (55)	.43 (39)	5% (22)	2.2 (28)

LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 17.07 #8
LSU's Offense Rating: 35.07 #1
LSU's Defense Rating: 15.64 #122
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 70% #7
LSU's 2023 Expected Record: 9.70 - 3.30
LSU's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.7 #10
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.1 #2
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
LSU: 17.07 Ole Miss: 16.14

SP+ Ratings Matchup
LSU: 18.7 Ole Miss: 16.0

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 16.14 #18
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 22.85 #22
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 8.12 #47
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 36 #21
Ole Miss's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
Ole Miss's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.0 #14
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #21
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8 #21

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

LSU Scoring
Offense: 45.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 41.8
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.5

LSU's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 12 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
LSU 34
Ole Miss 33

Total Points: 67

Based on Last 4 Games
LSU 33
Ole Miss 29

Total Points: 62

Based on Entire Season
Ole Miss 36
LSU 33

Total Points: 69

Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 35.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 44.1
Defense: 22.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.6

Ole Miss's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/27	Ole Miss	24	LSU	19	Ole Miss -2.5	Ole Miss	57.5	Under
2024	10/12	LSU	29	Ole Miss	26	Ole Miss -3.5	LSU	64.5	Under
2023	09/30	Ole Miss	55	LSU	49	LSU -3	Ole Miss	67.0	Over
2022	10/22	LSU	45	Ole Miss	20	Ole Miss -0.0	LSU	64.0	Over
2021	10/23	Ole Miss	31	LSU	17	Ole Miss -9.0	Ole Miss	76.5	Under
2020	12/19	LSU	53	Ole Miss	48	Ole Miss -0.0	LSU	74.5	Over
2019	11/16	Ole Miss	37	LSU	58	LSU -21	NA	66.0	Over
2018	09/29	LSU	45	Ole Miss	16	LSU -10.5	LSU	61.0	Push
2017	10/21	Ole Miss	24	LSU	40	LSU -6.5	LSU	59.0	Over
2016	10/22	LSU	38	Ole Miss	21	LSU -4.5	LSU	59.0	Push
2015	11/21	Ole Miss	38	LSU	17	Ole Miss -4.5	Ole Miss	58.5	Under
2014	10/25	LSU	10	Ole Miss	7	Ole Miss -3	LSU	0
2013	10/19	Ole Miss	27	LSU	24	LSU -8	Ole Miss	0
2012	11/17	LSU	41	Ole Miss	35
2011	11/19	Ole Miss	3	LSU	52
2010	11/20	LSU	43	Ole Miss	36
2009	11/21	Ole Miss	25	LSU	23
2008	11/22	LSU	13	Ole Miss	31
2007	11/17	Ole Miss	24	LSU	41
2006	11/18	LSU	23	Ole Miss	20
2005	11/19	Ole Miss	7	LSU	40
2004	11/20	LSU	27	Ole Miss	24
2003	11/22	Ole Miss	14	LSU	17
2001	10/27	LSU	24	Ole Miss	35
2000	11/10	Ole Miss	9	LSU	20

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ole Miss	8	5	5 Overs
LSU	17	7	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	16 - 9	11 - 1	7 - 0	4 - 1
Road Teams	9 - 16	1 - 11	1 - 4	0 - 7

(#8) LSU at (#18) MISS

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	LSU	MISS
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#8	#18
SP+SP+	#10	#14
Perf GradeGrade	#11	#24
OffenseOff	#2	#18
DefenseDef	#53	#60
Spec TeamsST	#102	#11
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#7	#21

LSU Injury Report

Ole Miss Injury Report

LSU on Offense


CategoryCat	LSU Off	MISS Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#2	#60
SuccessSuc	#2	#62
ExplosiveExp	#11	#69
PPAPPA	#1	#68
PowerPwr	#1	#47
SP+SP+	#2	#21
Pts POPPO	#8	#55
HavocHav	#5	#33

LSU Run Game


CategoryCat	LSU Off	MISS Def
Run GameRun	#1	#82
Run SuccessRSuc	#1	#74
Run ExplRExp	#27	#58
PPAExp	#1	#70
Run BlockR Blk	#7	-
OL YdsOLY	#1	#96
Stuff RateStuff	#4	#105
TackleTak	-	#38

LSU Pass Game


CategoryCat	LSU Off	MISS Def
Pass GamePass	#2	#74
Pass SuccessPSuc	#3	#54
Pass ExplPExl	#33	#79
PPAExp	#4	#59
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#10	#40
F7 HavocF7	#2	#30
DB HavocDB	#29	#43

Ole Miss on Offense


CategoryCat	MISS Off	LSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#18	#53
SuccessSuc	#44	#105
ExplosiveExp	#26	#116
PPAPPA	#30	#126
PowerPwr	#22	#122
SP+SP+	#21	#55
Pts POPPO	#13	#126
HavocHav	#60	#69

Ole Miss Run Game


CategoryCat	MISS Off	LSU Def
Run GameRun	#7	#49
Run SuccessRSuc	#54	#92
Run ExplRExp	#44	#99
PPAExp	#60	#113
Run BlockR Blk	#83	-
OL YdsOLY	#100	#97
Stuff RateStuff	#123	#103
TackleTak	-	#17

Ole Miss Pass Game


CategoryCat	MISS Off	LSU Def
Pass GamePass	#6	#95
Pass SuccessPSuc	#31	#113
Pass ExplPExl	#21	#112
PPAExp	#17	#123
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#87	#30
F7 HavocF7	#80	#79
DB HavocDB	#22	#54

Program Comparison
MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

LSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'23 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 86° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 5
LSU 3.0 (67.0)
Ole Miss won vs LSU this year (55-49)

Previous Matchups
LSU beat Ole Miss last year (29-26)
Ole Miss beat LSU in 2023 (55-49)
LSU beat Ole Miss in 2022 (45-20)

LSU's OC Mike Denbrock (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jayden Daniels	236	327	72%	3812	40	4	11.7
Garrett Nussmeier	48	78	62%	592	4	1	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jayden Daniels	135	1134	10	8.4	85
Logan Diggs (Tr)	119	653	7	5.5	35
Josh Williams	55	284	5	5.2	41
Noah Cain	37	181	3	4.9	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Nabers	89	1569	14	17.6	51
Brian Thomas Jr.	68	1177	17	17.3	86
Kyren Lacy	30	558	7	18.6	57
Mason Taylor	36	348	1	9.7	25

View LSU's Full Roster

LSU's DC Matt House (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Major Burns	90	4	1	2	3
Greg Penn III	89	7	4	1	1
Andre Sam (Tr)	82	1	0	0	2
Harold Perkins	74	13	6	6	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Harold Perkins	74	13	6	6	4
Mehki Wingo	25	5	5	0	0
Greg Penn III	89	7	4	1	1
Ovie Oghoufo (Tr)	33	4	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zy Alexander (Tr)	44	0	0	0	7
Sage Ryan	41	4	0	0	5
Harold Perkins	74	13	6	6	4

MISS's OC John David Baker (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaxson Dart	233	359	65%	3364	23	5	9.4
Spencer Sanders (Tr)	19	29	66%	278	3	0	9.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quinshon Judkins	271	1158	15	4.3	40
Ulysses Bentley IV	95	540	4	5.7	43
Jaxson Dart	119	391	8	3.3	68
Matt Jones	12	79	2	6.6	36

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Harris (Tr)	54	985	8	18.2	56
Dayton Wade	55	830	4	15.1	58
Jordan Watkins	53	741	3	14.0	68
Caden Prieskorn (Tr)	30	449	4	15.0	37

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Pete Golding (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey Washington	83	2	0	0	2
Ashanti Cistrunk (Tr)	71	5	3	1	0
John Saunders Jr.	65	2	0	1	4
Daijahn Anthony	61	3	0	0	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jared Ivey	46	12	6	4	2
Cedric Johnson	40	7	6	12	3
Suntarine Perkins	38	6	4	1	1
Isaac Ukwu (Tr)	30	5	4	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Daijahn Anthony	61	3	0	8
Zamari Walton (Tr)	38	4	0	6
Deantre Prince	36	5	1	5