LSU at Florida State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Sunday, September 3rd 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
LSU -2 (56.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Florida State 45 - LSU: 24 (Camping World Kickoff)

Tigers (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brian Kelly (12 - 5)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (16 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#16)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Florida State -2 (SP+ FSU -5)
Projected Score: LSU: 25 - FSU: 27 (52)
LSU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
LSU Travel: 602 miles, 1 hrs behind

Seminoles (13 - 1) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (21 - 16)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (43 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.6 - 3.4 (#8)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
LSU Players
FSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

LSU's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	LSU vs Florida State	-2.0	56.5	L 24 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/9	LSU vs Grambling	-56.5	61.5	W 72 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/16	LSU at Mississippi State	-9.5	54.0	W 41 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/23	LSU vs Arkansas	-17.5	55.0	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/30	LSU at Ole Miss	-3.0	67.0	L 49 - 55	O	N
Sat 10/7	LSU at Missouri	-6.0	63.5	W 49 - 39	O	Y
Sat 10/14	LSU vs Auburn	-11.0	60.0	W 48 - 18	O	Y
Sat 10/21	LSU vs Army	-33.0	60.0	W 62 - 0	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	LSU at Alabama	+3.0	61.5	L 28 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/11	LSU vs Florida	-14.0	68.5	W 52 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/18	LSU vs Georgia State	-32.5	73.5	W 56 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/25	LSU vs Texas A&M	-10.5	67.5	W 42 - 30	O	Y
Mon 1/1	LSU vs Wisconsin	-9.5	59.5	W 35 - 31	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for LSU's Schedule

Florida State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	Florida State vs LSU	+2.0	56.5	W 45 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Florida State vs Southern Miss	-31.0	54.0	W 66 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Florida State at Boston College	-25.5	48.0	W 31 - 29	O	N
Sat 9/23	Florida State at Clemson	-2.0	55.5	W 31 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	Florida State vs Virginia Tech	-23.5	52.5	W 39 - 17	O	N
Sat 10/14	Florida State vs Syracuse	-18.5	53.5	W 41 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Florida State vs Duke	-14.0	49.0	W 38 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Florida State at Wake Forest	-21.0	53.5	W 41 - 16	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Florida State at Pittsburgh	-21.5	50.0	W 24 - 7	U	N
Sat 11/11	Florida State vs Miami	-14.5	50.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/18	Florida State vs North Alabama	-35.5
Sat 11/25	Florida State at Florida	-6.0	51.0	W 24 - 15	U	Y
Sat 12/2	Florida State vs Louisville	-3.5	51.0	W 16 - 6	U	Y
Sat 12/30	Florida State vs Georgia	+23.5	47.0	L 3 - 63	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LSU	.33	51%	22.8	55%	3.63	184	48%	269	4.6	.16	41%	19.8	45%	37%	3.34	52.1	1.4	2
FSU	.36	49%	33	52%	3.33	214	46%	270	4.32	.15	41%	22	44%	38%	4.08	57.9	1.1	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LSU Offense	14	22.8	16.4	51.3%	4.6	1.4	25	453	184	269	5	47%	53%	55%	48%	13%	.33
FSU Defense	13	22	16.1	41.4%	4.08	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	44%	38%	17%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LSU Defense	14	19.8	20.4	40.8%	3.34	2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	45%	37%	15%	.16
FSU Offense	13	33	43.3	49%	4.32	1.1	24	484	214	270	5.5	51%	48%	52%	46%	15%	.36

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
LSU	14	31:01	24.6	49%	50%	6	52.1	1.4	2	4.8	1.9	2	27.8
Florida State	13	31:01	24.2	51%	35%	6.6	57.9	1.1	1.4	6	2.9	1	33.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LSU Offense	14	47%	55%	37	183.8	5	39	.35	3.63	80%	9%	0.99
FSU Defense	13	56%	44%	-	-	-	-	.16	3.27	73%	11%	0.9

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LSU Defense	14	49%	45%	-	-	-	-	.14	2.9	74%	10%	0.93
FSU Offense	13	51%	52%	39.2	214.1	5.5	33	.33	3.33	65%	10%	1.11

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LSU Offense	14	53%	48%	23	34.3	269.3	7.9	11.7	23	7	.32	1.4	27%	35%	.43	4%	2
FSU Defense	13	43%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.17	1.6	34%	28%	.3	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LSU Defense	14	51%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.17	1.7	32%	32%	.38	5%	2.2
FSU Offense	13	48%	46%	19.2	30.4	270.2	8.9	14.1	28	7	.41	1.7	29%	39%	.51	5%	2.2

LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 17.07 #8
LSU's Offense Rating: 35.07 #1
LSU's Defense Rating: 15.64 #122
2023 Talent Rating: 899.31 #7
Blue Chip Ratio: 70% #7
LSU's 2023 Expected Record: 9.70 - 3.30
LSU's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.7 #10
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.1 #2
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
LSU: 17.07 Florida State: 19.88

SP+ Ratings Matchup
LSU: 18.7 Florida State: 23.7

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 19.88 #10
Florida State's Offense Rating: 19.82 #37
Florida State's Defense Rating: -0.10 #7
2023 Talent Rating: 765.33 #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 39 #19
Florida State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.60 - 3.40
Florida State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #16
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3 #7

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

LSU Scoring
Offense: 22.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.4
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.4

LSU's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 12 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Florida State 27
LSU 25

Projected Total Points: 52

Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.3
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.1

Florida State's 2023 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/03	Florida State	45	LSU	24	LSU -2	Florida State	56.5	Over
2022	09/04	Florida State	24	LSU	23	LSU -4.5	Florida State	51.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Florida State	2	2	1 Overs
LSU	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	2 - 0	0 - 0	2 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0

(#8) LSU at (#10) FSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	LSU	FSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#8	#10
SP+SP+	#10	#7
Perf GradeGrade	#11	#15
OffenseOff	#2	#23
DefenseDef	#53	#16
Spec TeamsST	#102	#42
TalentTal	#7	#20
Blue ChipsBC%	#7	#19

LSU Injury Report

Florida State Injury Report

LSU on Offense


CategoryCat	LSU Off	FSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#2	#16
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#1	#7
SP+SP+	#2	#7
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

LSU Run Game


CategoryCat	LSU Off	FSU Def
Run GameRun	#1	#45
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#7	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#32

LSU Pass Game


CategoryCat	LSU Off	FSU Def
Pass GamePass	#2	#12
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#10	#6
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Florida State on Offense


CategoryCat	FSU Off	LSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#23	#53
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#37	#122
SP+SP+	#16	#55
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Florida State Run Game


CategoryCat	FSU Off	LSU Def
Run GameRun	#43	#49
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#21	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#17

Florida State Pass Game


CategoryCat	FSU Off	LSU Def
Pass GamePass	#19	#95
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#5	#30
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
FSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'23 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

LSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'23 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Camping World Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
LSU 2.0 (56.5)
Florida State won vs LSU this year (45-24)

Previous Matchups
Florida State beat LSU in 2023 (45-24)

LSU's OC Mike Denbrock (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jayden Daniels	236	327	72%	3812	40	4	11.7
Garrett Nussmeier	48	78	62%	592	4	1	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jayden Daniels	135	1134	10	8.4	85
Logan Diggs (Tr)	119	653	7	5.5	35
Josh Williams	55	284	5	5.2	41
Noah Cain	37	181	3	4.9	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Nabers	89	1569	14	17.6	51
Brian Thomas Jr.	68	1177	17	17.3	86
Kyren Lacy	30	558	7	18.6	57
Mason Taylor	36	348	1	9.7	25

View LSU's Full Roster

LSU's DC Matt House (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Major Burns	90	4	1	2	3
Greg Penn III	89	7	4	1	1
Andre Sam (Tr)	82	1	0	0	2
Harold Perkins	74	13	6	6	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Harold Perkins	74	13	6	6	4
Mehki Wingo	25	5	5	0	0
Greg Penn III	89	7	4	1	1
Ovie Oghoufo (Tr)	33	4	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zy Alexander (Tr)	44	0	0	0	7
Sage Ryan	41	4	0	0	5
Harold Perkins	74	13	6	6	4

FSU's OC Alex Atkins (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jordan Travis	207	324	64%	2745	20	2	8.5
Tate Rodemaker	32	56	57%	510	5	0	9.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trey Benson	156	905	14	5.8	85
Lawrance Toafili	69	463	4	6.7	73
Rodney Hill	50	190	1	3.8	19
Caziah Holmes (Tr)	29	185	2	6.4	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keon Coleman (Tr)	50	658	11	13.2	58
Johnny Wilson	41	617	2	15.0	44
Jaheim Bell (Tr)	39	503	2	12.9	49
Kyle Morlock (Tr)	19	255	0	13.4	63

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Adam Fuller (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tatum Bethune	70	7	1	3	3
Kalen DeLoach	67	11	8	0	2
Shyheim Brown	53	2	2	2	4
DJ Lundy	52	6	2	2	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jared Verse	40	12	9	7	2
Kalen DeLoach	67	11	8	0	2
Patrick Payton	43	14	6	7	9
Braden Fiske (Tr)	42	9	6	5	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Renardo Green	43	3	1	1	12
Azareye'h Thomas	27	3	0	0	10
Patrick Payton	43	14	6	7	9