Arkansas at Ole Miss - 2023 Matchup Preview

Arkansas Razorbacks at Ole Miss Rebels

Saturday, October 7th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Ole Miss -13 (61.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Ole Miss 27 - Arkansas: 20 (SEC)

Razorbacks (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sam Pittman (21 - 18)
Avg Score : 33 - 34 (31 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 6 (#75)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MISS 2nd straight Home Game
MISS is playing their 6th straight game
ARK is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Ole Miss -13 (SP+ MISS -13)
Projected Score: ARK: 24 - MISS: 37 (61)
MISS Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
ARK Travel: 287 miles

Rebels (11 - 2) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Lane Kiffin (26 - 13)
Avg Score : 37 - 21 (39 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARK Players
MISS Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arkansas vs Western Carolina	-38.0	61.0	W 56 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Arkansas vs Kent State	-38.0	57.5	W 28 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/16	Arkansas vs BYU	-9.0	48.0	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/23	Arkansas at LSU	+17.5	55.0	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Arkansas vs Texas A&M	+6.5	53.5	L 22 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/7	Arkansas at Ole Miss	+13.0	61.5	L 20 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Arkansas at Alabama	+19.0	45.0	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Arkansas vs Mississippi State	-6.5	46.5	L 3 - 7	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Arkansas at Florida	+4.5	50.0	W 39 - 36	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Arkansas vs Auburn	-2.5	46.5	L 10 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/18	Arkansas vs Florida International	-27.5	49.5	W 44 - 20	O	N
Fri 11/24	Arkansas vs Missouri	+9.5	53.5	L 14 - 48	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas's Schedule

Ole Miss's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Ole Miss vs Mercer	-35.0	59.5	W 73 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Ole Miss at Tulane	-8.0	64.0	W 37 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Ole Miss vs Georgia Tech	-17.0	61.5	W 48 - 23	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Ole Miss at Alabama	+7.0	56.0	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Ole Miss vs LSU	+3.0	67.0	W 55 - 49	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Ole Miss vs Arkansas	-13.0	61.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Ole Miss at Auburn	-6.5	55.5	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt	-24.0	62.0	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Ole Miss vs Texas A&M	-3.0	52.5	W 38 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/11	Ole Miss at Georgia	+11.0	59.0	L 17 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/18	Ole Miss vs UL Monroe	-35.5	59.5	W 35 - 3	U	N
Thu 11/23	Ole Miss at Mississippi State	-11.0	56.0	W 17 - 7	U	N
Sat 12/30	Ole Miss vs Penn State	+5.5	53.0	W 38 - 25	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARK	.26	46%	32.9	48%	3.23	237	43%	234	4.18	.25	43%	33.8	45%	41%	3.65	55.6	1.4	1.7
MISS	.27	48%	36.9	49%	3.11	257	45%	240	4.04	.16	44%	21.1	44%	44%	3.72	63.2	1.5	2.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARK		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MISS		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARK Offense	13	32.9	31.2	45.6%	4.18	1.4	24	471	237	234	5.1	60%	40%	48%	43%	15%	.26
MISS Defense	13	21.1	15.6	43.9%	3.72	2.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	44%	44%	16%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARK Defense	13	33.8	36.4	42.5%	3.65	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	45%	41%	16%	.25
MISS Offense	13	36.9	39	47.5%	4.04	1.5	25	496	257	240	5.4	60%	40%	49%	45%	16%	.27

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas	13	30:22	23.9	46%	45%	6.4	55.6	1.4	1.7	5.6	3	1	31.8
Ole Miss	13	26:23	25.2	47%	49%	6.8	63.2	1.5	2.3	5.7	2.5	0	27.3

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARK Offense	13	60%	48%	46.6	237.3	5.1	27	.14	3.23	71%	11%	0.98
MISS Defense	13	51%	44%	-	-	-	-	.1	3.22	74%	10%	0.86

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARK Defense	13	48%	45%	-	-	-	-	.22	3.04	76%	10%	1.08
MISS Offense	13	60%	49%	47.2	256.5	5.4	33	.27	3.11	74%	10%	1.1

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARK Offense	13	40%	43%	17.7	27.4	233.9	8.5	13.2	26	7	.46	1.9	30%	36%	.51	5%	2.1
MISS Defense	13	49%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.24	1.5	29%	30%	.22	6%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARK Defense	13	52%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.32	1.8	34%	34%	.5	6%	2.3
MISS Offense	13	40%	45%	18.4	29.7	239.8	8.1	13.1	22	11	.3	1.6	29%	36%	.33	5%	1.9

Arkansas's Power Ratings
Arkansas's Power Rating: 3.28 #47
Arkansas's Offense Rating: 16.54 #65
Arkansas's Defense Rating: 8.58 #55
2023 Talent Rating: 730.93 #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 30% #25
Arkansas's 2023 Expected Record: 6.00 - 6.00
Arkansas's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.7 #58
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #57
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #69

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas: 3.28 Ole Miss: 16.14

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas: 2.7 Ole Miss: 16.0

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 16.14 #18
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 22.85 #22
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 8.12 #47
2023 Talent Rating: 756.04 #23
Blue Chip Ratio: 36 #21
Ole Miss's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
Ole Miss's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.0 #14
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #21
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8 #21

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 32.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.2
Defense: 33.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.4

Arkansas's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Ole Miss 37
Arkansas 24

Projected Total Points: 61

Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 39
Defense: 21.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.6

Ole Miss's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/13	Ole Miss	41	Arkansas	35	Ole Miss -3.5	Ole Miss	60.5	Over
2024	11/02	Arkansas	31	Ole Miss	63	Ole Miss -8	Ole Miss	54.0	Over
2023	10/07	Ole Miss	27	Arkansas	20	Ole Miss -13	Arkansas	61.5	Under
2022	11/19	Arkansas	42	Ole Miss	27	Ole Miss -0.0	Arkansas	67.5	Over
2021	10/09	Ole Miss	52	Arkansas	51	Ole Miss -5	Arkansas	67.0	Over
2020	10/17	Arkansas	33	Ole Miss	21	Arkansas -1.0	Arkansas	77.5	Under
2019	09/07	Ole Miss	31	Arkansas	17	Ole Miss -5	Ole Miss	50.5	Under
2018	10/13	Arkansas	33	Ole Miss	37	Ole Miss -6.5	Arkansas	66.5	Over
2017	10/28	Ole Miss	37	Arkansas	38	Ole Miss -2.5	Arkansas	62.0	Over
2016	10/15	Arkansas	34	Ole Miss	30	Ole Miss -6.5	Arkansas	65.0	Under
2015	11/07	Ole Miss	52	Arkansas	53	Ole Miss -11	Arkansas	55.0	Over
2014	11/22	Arkansas	30	Ole Miss	0	Ole Miss -2	Arkansas	0
2013	11/09	Ole Miss	34	Arkansas	24	Ole Miss -17	Arkansas	0
2012	10/27	Arkansas	27	Ole Miss	30
2011	10/22	Ole Miss	24	Arkansas	29
2010	10/23	Arkansas	38	Ole Miss	24
2009	10/24	Ole Miss	30	Arkansas	17
2008	10/25	Arkansas	21	Ole Miss	23
2007	10/20	Ole Miss	8	Arkansas	44
2006	10/21	Arkansas	38	Ole Miss	3
2005	11/12	Ole Miss	17	Arkansas	28
2004	11/13	Arkansas	35	Ole Miss	3
2003	10/25	Ole Miss	19	Arkansas	7
2002	10/26	Arkansas	48	Ole Miss	28
2001	11/03	Ole Miss	56	Arkansas	58
2000	11/03	Arkansas	24	Ole Miss	38

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ole Miss	12	3	7 Overs
Arkansas	14	10	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 11	7 - 6	4 - 5	3 - 1
Road Teams	11 - 15	6 - 7	1 - 3	5 - 4

(#47) ARK at (#18) MISS

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARK	MISS
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#47	#18
SP+SP+	#58	#14
Perf GradeGrade	#65	#24
OffenseOff	#75	#18
DefenseDef	#58	#60
Spec TeamsST	#51	#11
TalentTal	#32	#23
Blue ChipsBC%	#25	#21

Arkansas Injury Report

Ole Miss Injury Report

Arkansas on Offense


CategoryCat	ARK Off	MISS Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#75	#60
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#65	#47
SP+SP+	#57	#21
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas Run Game


CategoryCat	ARK Off	MISS Def
Run GameRun	#101	#82
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#54	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#38

Arkansas Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARK Off	MISS Def
Pass GamePass	#69	#74
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#102	#40
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Ole Miss on Offense


CategoryCat	MISS Off	ARK Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#18	#58
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#22	#55
SP+SP+	#21	#69
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Ole Miss Run Game


CategoryCat	MISS Off	ARK Def
Run GameRun	#7	#91
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#83	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#19

Ole Miss Pass Game


CategoryCat	MISS Off	ARK Def
Pass GamePass	#6	#46
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#87	#47
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

ARK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
Ole Miss -13.0 (61.5)
Ole Miss won vs Arkansas this year (27-20)

Previous Matchups
Ole Miss beat Arkansas last year (41-35)
Ole Miss beat Arkansas in 2024 (63-31)
Ole Miss beat Arkansas in 2023 (27-20)

ARK's OC Kenny Guiton (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
KJ Jefferson	190	296	64%	2107	19	8	7.1
Jacolby Criswell	17	27	63%	143	3	0	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
KJ Jefferson	161	447	2	2.8	26
AJ Green	67	312	2	4.7	55
Rashod Dubinion	82	260	1	3.2	15
Raheim Sanders	62	209	2	3.4	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Andrew Armstrong (Tr)	56	764	5	13.6	48
Isaac Teslaa (Tr)	34	351	2	10.3	36
Luke Hasz	16	253	3	15.8	59
Jaedon Wilson	15	199	2	13.3	65

View Arkansas's Full Roster

ARK's DC Travis Williams (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaheim Thomas (Tr)	89	6	3	5	2
Chris Paul Jr.	74	7	2	1	1
Jayden Johnson	61	2	0	1	3
Al Walcott	56	1	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Landon Jackson	45	14	7	2	1
Trajan Jeffcoat (Tr)	16	9	4	5	0
Jaheim Thomas (Tr)	89	6	3	5	2
Keivie Rose (Tr)	15	4	3	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jaylon Braxton	21	0	0	8
Dwight McGlothern	20	3	0	6
Lorando Johnson (Tr)	29	4	1	5

MISS's OC John David Baker (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaxson Dart	233	359	65%	3364	23	5	9.4
Spencer Sanders (Tr)	19	29	66%	278	3	0	9.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quinshon Judkins	271	1158	15	4.3	40
Ulysses Bentley IV	95	540	4	5.7	43
Jaxson Dart	119	391	8	3.3	68
Matt Jones	12	79	2	6.6	36

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Harris (Tr)	54	985	8	18.2	56
Dayton Wade	55	830	4	15.1	58
Jordan Watkins	53	741	3	14.0	68
Caden Prieskorn (Tr)	30	449	4	15.0	37

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Pete Golding (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey Washington	83	2	0	0	2
Ashanti Cistrunk (Tr)	71	5	3	1	0
John Saunders Jr.	65	2	0	1	4
Daijahn Anthony	61	3	0	0	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jared Ivey	46	12	6	4	2
Cedric Johnson	40	7	6	12	3
Suntarine Perkins	38	6	4	1	1
Isaac Ukwu (Tr)	30	5	4	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Daijahn Anthony	61	3	0	8
Zamari Walton (Tr)	38	4	0	6
Deantre Prince	36	5	1	5