Arkansas at LSU - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
LSU -17.5 (55.0) (0) Open: 0.0
LSU 34 - Arkansas: 31 (SEC)

Razorbacks (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sam Pittman (21 - 18)
Avg Score : 27 - 28 (28 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 6 (#75)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

LSU is playing their 4th straight game
ARK is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: LSU -17.5 (SP+ LSU -16)
Projected Score: ARK: 21 - LSU: 39 (60)
LSU Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
ARK Travel: 427 miles

Tigers (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brian Kelly (12 - 5)
Avg Score : 46 - 28 (52 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#16)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARK Players
LSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arkansas vs Western Carolina	-38.0	61.0	W 56 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Arkansas vs Kent State	-38.0	57.5	W 28 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/16	Arkansas vs BYU	-9.0	48.0	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/23	Arkansas at LSU	+17.5	55.0	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Arkansas vs Texas A&M	+6.5	53.5	L 22 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/7	Arkansas at Ole Miss	+13.0	61.5	L 20 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Arkansas at Alabama	+19.0	45.0	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Arkansas vs Mississippi State	-6.5	46.5	L 3 - 7	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Arkansas at Florida	+4.5	50.0	W 39 - 36	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Arkansas vs Auburn	-2.5	46.5	L 10 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/18	Arkansas vs Florida International	-27.5	49.5	W 44 - 20	O	N
Fri 11/24	Arkansas vs Missouri	+9.5	53.5	L 14 - 48	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas's Schedule

LSU's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	LSU vs Florida State	-2.0	56.5	L 24 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/9	LSU vs Grambling	-56.5	61.5	W 72 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/16	LSU at Mississippi State	-9.5	54.0	W 41 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/23	LSU vs Arkansas	-17.5	55.0	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/30	LSU at Ole Miss	-3.0	67.0	L 49 - 55	O	N
Sat 10/7	LSU at Missouri	-6.0	63.5	W 49 - 39	O	Y
Sat 10/14	LSU vs Auburn	-11.0	60.0	W 48 - 18	O	Y
Sat 10/21	LSU vs Army	-33.0	60.0	W 62 - 0	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	LSU at Alabama	+3.0	61.5	L 28 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/11	LSU vs Florida	-14.0	68.5	W 52 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/18	LSU vs Georgia State	-32.5	73.5	W 56 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/25	LSU vs Texas A&M	-10.5	67.5	W 42 - 30	O	Y
Mon 1/1	LSU vs Wisconsin	-9.5	59.5	W 35 - 31	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARK	#75 (.18)	39% (105)	26.6	43% (74)	3.3 (34)	139	36% (112)	188	4.22 (35)	#42 (.14)	39% (40)	27.9	41% (48)	39% (29)	3.93 (79)	55.4	1.5	1.5
LSU	#1 (.52)	56% (2)	45.5	58% (1)	3.9 (1)	197	54% (3)	309	4.86 (8)	#126 (.32)	45% (105)	28	45% (92)	45% (113)	4.55 (126)	48.2	0.5	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARK	#27 (.25)	48% (13)		52% (5)	3.23 (38)	168	44% (41)	248	3.95 (64)	#45 (.13)	42% (66)		39% (32)	44% (100)	3.31 (22)	56.3	1.7	1
LSU	#30 (.25)	45% (38)		42% (89)	2.92 (90)	108	47% (24)	291	3.99 (60)	#92 (.21)	41% (60)		41% (54)	41% (73)	3.44 (30)	45.7	1.2	1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARK Offense	12	26.6	27.8	39.3%	4.22	1.5	17	327	139	188	3.5	52%	47%	43%	36%	20%	.18
LSU Defense	13	28	19.7	44.8%	4.55	1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	45%	45%	16%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARK Defense	12	27.9	30.3	39.5%	3.93	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	41%	39%	18%	.14
LSU Offense	13	45.5	52.3	56.1%	4.86	0.5	24	506	197	309	6.3	47%	53%	58%	54%	11%	.52

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas	12	30:43	17.3	38%	63%	6.3	55.4	1.5	1.5	6.3	2.4	5	27.5
LSU	13	26:37	23.7	56%	43%	5.7	48.2	0.5	1	5.1	2	1	29.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARK Offense	12	52% (48)	43% (74)	39.3	139	3.5	9 (128)	.15 (70)	3.3 (34)	84% (5)	15% (130)	0.89 (115)
LSU Defense	13	49% (51)	45% (92)	-	-	-	-	.24 (113)	3.22 (97)	91% (132)	10% (79)	1.07 (99)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARK Defense	12	53% (108)	41% (48)	-	-	-	-	.07 (27)	2.95 (41)	70% (45)	11% (29)	0.9 (29)
LSU Offense	13	47% (95)	58% (1)	31.2	197	6.3	32 (10)	.45 (1)	3.9 (1)	69% (103)	6% (2)	1.08 (27)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARK Offense	12	47% (86)	36% (112)	17.3	26.9	187.5	7	10.9	22 (61)	8 (30)	.24 (80)	1.8 (14)	34% (97)	27% (98)	.39 (49)	5% (32)	2.4 (3)
LSU Defense	13	51% (86)	45% (113)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.41 (123)	1.7 (112)	32% (64)	34% (118)	.56 (132)	6% (54)	2.5 (132)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARK Defense	12	46% (29)	39% (29)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.27 (65)	1.9 (130)	32% (62)	27% (27)	.3 (61)	7% (42)	2.3 (129)
LSU Offense	13	53% (38)	54% (3)	19.6	28.2	308.6	11	15.7	41 (2)	4 (2)	.59 (4)	1.7 (33)	24% (4)	45% (1)	.74 (1)	5% (29)	2.1 (40)

Arkansas's Power Ratings
Arkansas's Power Rating: 3.28 #47
Arkansas's Offense Rating: 16.54 #65
Arkansas's Defense Rating: 8.58 #55
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 30% #25
Arkansas's 2023 Expected Record: 6.00 - 6.00
Arkansas's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.7 #58
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #57
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #69

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas: 3.28 LSU: 20.385

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas: 2.7 LSU: 18.7

LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 20.385 #8
LSU's Offense Rating: 35.07 #1
LSU's Defense Rating: 15.64 #122
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 70 #7
LSU's 2023 Expected Record: 9.70 - 3.30
LSU's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.7 #10
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.1 #2
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 26.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.8
Defense: 27.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.3

Arkansas's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
LSU 39
Arkansas 21

Total Points: 60

Based on Last 4 Games
LSU 41
Arkansas 24

Total Points: 66

Based on Entire Season
LSU 39
Arkansas 25

Total Points: 64

LSU Scoring
Offense: 45.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 52.3
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.7

LSU's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 12 - 1
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/15	LSU	23	Arkansas	22	LSU -4	Arkansas	58.5	Under
2024	10/19	Arkansas	10	LSU	34	LSU -3	LSU	57.0	Under
2023	09/23	LSU	34	Arkansas	31	LSU -17.5	Arkansas	55.0	Over
2022	11/12	Arkansas	10	LSU	13	LSU -5	Arkansas	59.0	Under
2021	11/13	LSU	13	Arkansas	16	Arkansas -3	NA	59.5	Under
2020	11/21	Arkansas	24	LSU	27	LSU -1.5	LSU	64.5	Under
2019	11/23	LSU	56	Arkansas	20	LSU -42	Arkansas	69.5	Over
2018	11/10	Arkansas	17	LSU	24	LSU -12.5	Arkansas	49.5	Under
2017	11/11	LSU	33	Arkansas	10	LSU -19	LSU	54.5	Under
2016	11/12	Arkansas	10	LSU	38	LSU -7	LSU	46.5	Over
2015	11/14	LSU	14	Arkansas	31	LSU -9	Arkansas	54.0	Under
2014	11/15	Arkansas	17	LSU	0	Arkansas -1.5	Arkansas	0
2013	11/29	LSU	31	Arkansas	27	LSU -24.5	Arkansas	0
2012	11/23	Arkansas	13	LSU	20
2011	11/25	LSU	41	Arkansas	17
2010	11/27	Arkansas	31	LSU	23
2009	11/28	LSU	33	Arkansas	30
2008	11/28	Arkansas	31	LSU	30
2007	11/23	LSU	48	Arkansas	50
2006	11/24	Arkansas	26	LSU	31
2005	11/25	LSU	19	Arkansas	17
2004	11/26	Arkansas	14	LSU	43
2003	11/28	LSU	55	Arkansas	24
2001	11/23	LSU	41	Arkansas	38
2000	11/23	Arkansas	14	LSU	3

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
LSU	18	4	3 Overs
Arkansas	7	8	8 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 11	4 - 8	2 - 5	2 - 3
Road Teams	11 - 14	8 - 4	3 - 2	5 - 2

(#47) ARK at (#8) LSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARK	LSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#47	#8
SP+SP+	#58	#10
Perf GradeGrade	#65	#11
OffenseOff	#75	#2
DefenseDef	#58	#53
Spec TeamsST	#51	#102
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#25	#7

Arkansas Injury Report

LSU Injury Report

Arkansas on Offense


CategoryCat	ARK Off	LSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#75	#53
SuccessSuc	#105	#105
ExplosiveExp	#80	#116
PPAPPA	#75	#126
PowerPwr	#65	#122
SP+SP+	#57	#55
Pts POPPO	#35	#126
HavocHav	#120	#69

Arkansas Run Game


CategoryCat	ARK Off	LSU Def
Run GameRun	#101	#49
Run SuccessRSuc	#74	#92
Run ExplRExp	#115	#99
PPAExp	#70	#113
Run BlockR Blk	#54	-
OL YdsOLY	#34	#97
Stuff RateStuff	#11	#103
TackleTak	-	#17

Arkansas Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARK Off	LSU Def
Pass GamePass	#69	#95
Pass SuccessPSuc	#112	#113
Pass ExplPExl	#14	#112
PPAExp	#80	#123
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#102	#30
F7 HavocF7	#130	#79
DB HavocDB	#32	#54

LSU on Offense


CategoryCat	LSU Off	ARK Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#2	#58
SuccessSuc	#2	#40
ExplosiveExp	#11	#95
PPAPPA	#1	#42
PowerPwr	#1	#55
SP+SP+	#2	#69
Pts POPPO	#8	#79
HavocHav	#5	#28

LSU Run Game


CategoryCat	LSU Off	ARK Def
Run GameRun	#1	#91
Run SuccessRSuc	#1	#48
Run ExplRExp	#27	#29
PPAExp	#1	#27
Run BlockR Blk	#7	-
OL YdsOLY	#1	#41
Stuff RateStuff	#4	#53
TackleTak	-	#19

LSU Pass Game


CategoryCat	LSU Off	ARK Def
Pass GamePass	#2	#46
Pass SuccessPSuc	#3	#29
Pass ExplPExl	#33	#130
PPAExp	#4	#65
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#10	#47
F7 HavocF7	#2	#29
DB HavocDB	#29	#42

Program Comparison
LSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'23 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

ARK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Tiger Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 87° - Wind: 10 mph

Rematch from Week 4
LSU -17.5 (55.0)
LSU won vs Arkansas this year (34-31)

Previous Matchups
LSU beat Arkansas last year (34-10)
LSU beat Arkansas in 2023 (34-31)
LSU beat Arkansas in 2022 (13-10)

ARK's OC Kenny Guiton (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
KJ Jefferson	190	296	64%	2107	19	8	7.1
Jacolby Criswell	17	27	63%	143	3	0	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
KJ Jefferson	161	447	2	2.8	26
AJ Green	67	312	2	4.7	55
Rashod Dubinion	82	260	1	3.2	15
Raheim Sanders	62	209	2	3.4	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Andrew Armstrong (Tr)	56	764	5	13.6	48
Isaac Teslaa (Tr)	34	351	2	10.3	36
Luke Hasz	16	253	3	15.8	59
Jaedon Wilson	15	199	2	13.3	65

View Arkansas's Full Roster

ARK's DC Travis Williams (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaheim Thomas (Tr)	89	6	3	5	2
Chris Paul Jr.	74	7	2	1	1
Jayden Johnson	61	2	0	1	3
Al Walcott	56	1	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Landon Jackson	45	14	7	2	1
Trajan Jeffcoat (Tr)	16	9	4	5	0
Jaheim Thomas (Tr)	89	6	3	5	2
Keivie Rose (Tr)	15	4	3	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jaylon Braxton	21	0	0	8
Dwight McGlothern	20	3	0	6
Lorando Johnson (Tr)	29	4	1	5

LSU's OC Mike Denbrock (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jayden Daniels	236	327	72%	3812	40	4	11.7
Garrett Nussmeier	48	78	62%	592	4	1	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jayden Daniels	135	1134	10	8.4	85
Logan Diggs (Tr)	119	653	7	5.5	35
Josh Williams	55	284	5	5.2	41
Noah Cain	37	181	3	4.9	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Nabers	89	1569	14	17.6	51
Brian Thomas Jr.	68	1177	17	17.3	86
Kyren Lacy	30	558	7	18.6	57
Mason Taylor	36	348	1	9.7	25

View LSU's Full Roster

LSU's DC Matt House (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Major Burns	90	4	1	2	3
Greg Penn III	89	7	4	1	1
Andre Sam (Tr)	82	1	0	0	2
Harold Perkins	74	13	6	6	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Harold Perkins	74	13	6	6	4
Mehki Wingo	25	5	5	0	0
Greg Penn III	89	7	4	1	1
Ovie Oghoufo (Tr)	33	4	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zy Alexander (Tr)	44	0	0	0	7
Sage Ryan	41	4	0	0	5
Harold Perkins	74	13	6	6	4