Florida at LSU - 2023 Matchup Preview
Florida logo Florida Gators at LSU Tigers(#3)LSU logo
Saturday, November 11th 2023 (7:30 PM EST)
LSU -14 (68.5) (-850)  Open: -16.5
LSU 52 - Florida: 35  (SEC)

 
Gators (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (8 - 8)
Avg Score : 28 - 28 (26 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#68)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: LSU -13.5   (SP+ LSU -13)
Projected Score: FLA: 27 - LSU: 41 (68)
LSU Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
FLA Travel: 531 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Tigers (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brian Kelly (12 - 5)
Avg Score : 46 - 28 (52 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#16)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Florida's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/31 Florida at Utah+5.544.5L 11 - 24UN
Sat 9/9 Florida vs McNeese-48.555.5W 49 - 7ON
Sat 9/16 Florida vs Tennessee+5.057.0W 29 - 16UY
Sat 9/23 Florida vs Charlotte-28.048.5W 22 - 7UN
Sat 9/30 Florida at Kentucky+1.044.0L 14 - 33ON
Sat 10/7 Florida vs Vanderbilt-18.051.0W 38 - 14OY
Sat 10/14 Florida at South Carolina-1.050.0W 41 - 39OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Florida vs Georgia+14.050.0L 20 - 43ON
Sat 11/4 Florida vs Arkansas-4.550.0L 36 - 39ON
Sat 11/11 Florida at LSU+14.068.5L 35 - 52ON
Sat 11/18 Florida at Missouri+12.556.5L 31 - 33OY
Sat 11/25 Florida vs Florida State+6.051.0L 15 - 24UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida's Schedule
LSU's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 9/3 LSU vs Florida State-2.056.5L 24 - 45ON
Sat 9/9 LSU vs Grambling-56.561.5W 72 - 10OY
Sat 9/16 LSU at Mississippi State-9.554.0W 41 - 14OY
Sat 9/23 LSU vs Arkansas-17.555.0W 34 - 31ON
Sat 9/30 LSU at Ole Miss-3.067.0L 49 - 55ON
Sat 10/7 LSU at Missouri-6.063.5W 49 - 39OY
Sat 10/14 LSU vs Auburn-11.060.0W 48 - 18OY
Sat 10/21 LSU vs Army-33.060.0W 62 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 LSU at Alabama+3.061.5L 28 - 42ON
Sat 11/11 LSU vs Florida-14.068.5W 52 - 35OY
Sat 11/18 LSU vs Georgia State-32.573.5W 56 - 14UY
Sat 11/25 LSU vs Texas A&M-10.567.5W 42 - 30OY
Mon 1/1 LSU vs Wisconsin-9.559.5W 35 - 31ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for LSU's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA#39 (.27)44% (47)28.443% (63)3.11 (69)15245% (36)2574.7 (14)#106 (.24)38% (26)27.636% (15)40% (45)4.08 (93)49.610.6
LSU#1 (.52)56% (2)45.558% (1)3.9 (1)19754% (3)3094.86 (8)#126 (.32)45% (105)2845% (92)45% (113)4.55 (126)48.20.51
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)45% (54)3.04 (66)16441% (82)2264.17 (46)#53 (.14)44% (95)49% (118)39% (44)3.12 (14)541.41.9
LSU#30 (.25)45% (38)42% (89)2.92 (90)10847% (24)2913.99 (60)#92 (.21)41% (60)41% (54)41% (73)3.44 (30)45.71.21



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Offense1228.426.443.9%4.71224091522574.348%52%43%45%16%.27
LSU Defense132819.744.8%4.551 - - - - - 49%51%45%45%16%.32
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Defense1227.636.237.9%4.080.6 - - - - - 50%49%36%40%16%.24
LSU Offense1345.552.356.1%4.860.5245061973096.347%53%58%54%11%.52

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida1233:0621.637%41%6.649.610.64.91.8026.4
LSU1326:3723.756%43%5.748.20.515.12129.2
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Offense1248% (88)43% (63)35.2151.64.321 (54).17 (59)3.11 (69)72% (85)12% (114)1 (64)
LSU Defense1349% (51)45% (92) - - - - .24 (113)3.22 (97)91% (132)10% (79)1.07 (99)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Defense1250% (71)36% (15) - - - - .16 (84)2.97 (44)59% (8)10% (62)1.28 (132)
LSU Offense1347% (95)58% (1)31.21976.332 (10).45 (1)3.9 (1)69% (103)6% (2)1.08 (27)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Offense1252% (40)45% (36)23.432.4257.27.91120 (70)5 (6).37 (33)1.6 (76)32% (79)30% (74).43 (38)4% (13)2.1 (48)
LSU Defense1351% (86)45% (113) - - - - - - 10 (67).41 (123)1.7 (112)32% (64)34% (118).56 (132)6% (54)2.5 (132)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Defense1249% (71)40% (45) - - - - - - 3 (132).35 (107)1.9 (129)34% (39)28% (37).34 (82)6% (82)2.3 (120)
LSU Offense1353% (38)54% (3)19.628.2308.61115.741 (2)4 (2).59 (4)1.7 (33)24% (4)45% (1).74 (1)5% (29)2.1 (40)

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 8.25 #26
Florida's Offense Rating: 23.02 #19
Florida's Defense Rating: 11.38 #90
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 65% #10
Florida's 2023 Expected Record: 6.50 - 5.50
Florida's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.9 #42
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #42
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #64

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida: 8.25   LSU: 20.385

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida: 5.9   LSU: 18.7




LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 20.385 #8
LSU's Offense Rating: 35.07 #1
LSU's Defense Rating: 15.64 #122
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 70 #7
LSU's 2023 Expected Record: 9.70 - 3.30
LSU's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.7 #10
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.1 #2
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Florida Scoring
Offense: 28.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.4
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.2

Florida's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
LSU 41
Florida 27


Total Points: 68

LSU Scoring
Offense: 45.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 52.3
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.7

LSU's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13LSU20Florida10LSULSU -5.5LSU47.5Under
202411/16Florida27LSU16FloridaLSU -3Florida57.0Under
202311/11LSU52Florida35LSULSU -14LSU68.5Over
202210/15Florida35LSU45LSUFlorida -2LSU51.5Over
202110/16LSU49Florida42LSUFlorida -12.5LSU61.0Over
202012/12Florida34LSU37LSUFlorida -23LSU65.5Over
201910/12LSU42Florida28LSULSU -14Push55.5Over
201810/06Florida27LSU19FloridaLSU -1Florida44.0Over
201710/07Florida16LSU17LSULSU -1.5Florida44.0Under
201611/19LSU10Florida16FloridaLSU -10.5Florida38.0Under
201510/17LSU35Florida28LSULSU -6.5LSU43.5Over
201410/11Florida27LSU30LSULSU -1LSU0
201310/12LSU17Florida6LSULSU -5LSU0
201210/06Florida14LSU6Florida
201110/08LSU41Florida11LSU
201010/09Florida29LSU33LSU
200910/10LSU3Florida13Florida
200810/11Florida51LSU21Florida
200710/06LSU28Florida24LSU
200610/07Florida23LSU10Florida
200510/15LSU21Florida17LSU
200410/09Florida21LSU24LSU
200310/11LSU7Florida19Florida
200210/12Florida7LSU36LSU
200110/06LSU15Florida44Florida
200010/06Florida41LSU9Florida
TeamWinsCoversO/U
LSU1687 Overs
Florida1044 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 118 - 44 - 34 - 1
Road Teams11 - 154 - 81 - 43 - 4

(#26) Florida Info
Power Rating: 8.25 #26
Offense Rating: 23.02 #19
Defense Rating: 11.38 #90
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.9 #42
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #42
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #64
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 65% #10
Expected Record: 6.50 - 5.50


Florida has lost 2 straight
Florida has won 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 4 (2 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

Florida Highlights
Florida offense is good in red zone (#72)
Florida has a really good defense (#18)
Florida has a good run defense (#7)
Florida has a great TO Margin (#116)

Florida Deficiencies
Florida gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#75)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatLSUFLA
OverallOver#9#39
OffenseOff#2#34
DefenseDef#45#64
Special TeamsST#80#83
PassingPass#2#43
RushingRush#1#46
Run BlockRBLK#7#22
Pass BlockPBLK#9#55
Route RunningWR Rt#11#26
TacklingTkl#15#97
Run DefenseR Def#43#48
Pass Rush DefPRush#26#51
Coverage DefCov#77#94

Rematch from Week 11
LSU -14.0 (68.5)
LSU won vs Florida this year (52-35)

Previous Matchups
Florida beat LSU last year (27-16)
LSU beat Florida in 2023 (52-35)
LSU beat Florida in 2022 (45-35)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Tiger Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: FLA | LSU
Depth Chart: FLA | LSU
Rosters: FLA | LSU
(#8) LSU Info
Power Rating: 20.385 #8
Offense Rating: 35.07 #1
Defense Rating: 15.64 #122
Overall SP+ Rating: 18.7 #10
Offense SP+ Rating: 44.1 #2
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 70 #7
Expected Record: 9.70 - 3.30


LSU has lost 1 straight
LSU has won 4 straight at Home
Record at home: 7 - 0 (6 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

LSU Highlights
LSU is Undefeated at Home

LSU has Really Good Running Game (#116)
LSU offense is efficent (#103)
LSU offense is explosive (#75)
LSU has a top Offensive Line (#129)
LSU offense is good in red zone (#123)
LSU offense is good on 3rd downs
LSU does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#122)

LSU has a great TO Margin (#82)

LSU Deficiencies
LSU has a bad defense (#60)
LSU gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#19)
LSU Does Not Stuff Runs (#93)
LSU has a bad red zone defense (#40)


  
Florida's OC Rob Sale
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Graham Mertz (Tr)26035773%28782038.1
Max Brown192868%192016.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Montrell Johnson15281755.452
Trevor Etienne13175385.762
Treyaun Webb2616326.343
Ricky Pearsall362220.739
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ricky Pearsall64970415.261
Eugene Wilson6153868.830
Arlis Boardingham26289411.125
Kahleil Jackson21251112.045

View Florida's Full Roster
Florida's DC Austin Armstrong
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Castell592003
Shemar James556100
Scooby Williams524140
Jaydon Hill394223
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Princely Umanmielen39117160
Derek Wingo184321
Jaydon Hill394223
Kelby Collins242231
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jason Marshall Jr.2631011
Jalen Kimber230015
Jordan Castell592003

LSU's OC Mike Denbrock
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Daniels23632772%381240411.7
Garrett Nussmeier487862%592417.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jayden Daniels1351134108.485
Logan Diggs (Tr)11965375.535
Josh Williams5528455.241
Noah Cain3718134.920
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malik Nabers8915691417.651
Brian Thomas Jr.6811771717.386
Kyren Lacy30558718.657
Mason Taylor3634819.725

View LSU's Full Roster
LSU's DC Matt House
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Major Burns904123
Greg Penn III897411
Andre Sam (Tr)821002
Harold Perkins7413664
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Harold Perkins7413664
Mehki Wingo255500
Greg Penn III897411
Ovie Oghoufo (Tr)334321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zy Alexander (Tr)440007
Sage Ryan414005
Harold Perkins7413664