Florida at LSU - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 11th 2023 (7:30 PM EST)
LSU -14 (68.5) (-850) Open: -16.5
LSU 52 - Florida: 35 (SEC)

Gators (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (8 - 8)
Avg Score : 22 - 24 (13 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#68)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: LSU -13.5 (SP+ LSU -13)
Projected Score: FLA: 21 - LSU: 35 (56)
LSU Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
FLA Travel: 531 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Tigers (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brian Kelly (12 - 5)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (26 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#16)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
FLA Players
LSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Florida's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Florida at Utah	+5.5	44.5	L 11 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/9	Florida vs McNeese	-48.5	55.5	W 49 - 7	O	N
Sat 9/16	Florida vs Tennessee	+5.0	57.0	W 29 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Florida vs Charlotte	-28.0	48.5	W 22 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/30	Florida at Kentucky	+1.0	44.0	L 14 - 33	O	N
Sat 10/7	Florida vs Vanderbilt	-18.0	51.0	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Florida at South Carolina	-1.0	50.0	W 41 - 39	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Florida vs Georgia	+14.0	50.0	L 20 - 43	O	N
Sat 11/4	Florida vs Arkansas	-4.5	50.0	L 36 - 39	O	N
Sat 11/11	Florida at LSU	+14.0	68.5	L 35 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/18	Florida at Missouri	+12.5	56.5	L 31 - 33	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Florida vs Florida State	+6.0	51.0	L 15 - 24	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida's Schedule

LSU's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	LSU vs Florida State	-2.0	56.5	L 24 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/9	LSU vs Grambling	-56.5	61.5	W 72 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/16	LSU at Mississippi State	-9.5	54.0	W 41 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/23	LSU vs Arkansas	-17.5	55.0	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/30	LSU at Ole Miss	-3.0	67.0	L 49 - 55	O	N
Sat 10/7	LSU at Missouri	-6.0	63.5	W 49 - 39	O	Y
Sat 10/14	LSU vs Auburn	-11.0	60.0	W 48 - 18	O	Y
Sat 10/21	LSU vs Army	-33.0	60.0	W 62 - 0	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	LSU at Alabama	+3.0	61.5	L 28 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/11	LSU vs Florida	-14.0	68.5	W 52 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/18	LSU vs Georgia State	-32.5	73.5	W 56 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/25	LSU vs Texas A&M	-10.5	67.5	W 42 - 30	O	Y
Mon 1/1	LSU vs Wisconsin	-9.5	59.5	W 35 - 31	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FLA	.26	40%	21.6	41%	3.17	200	39%	224	3.65	.23	45%	24	47%	44%	4.36	50.1	1.1	2
LSU	.33	51%	22.8	55%	3.63	184	48%	269	4.6	.16	41%	19.8	45%	37%	3.34	52.1	1.4	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FLA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
LSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FLA Offense	13	21.6	13	39.8%	3.65	1.1	20	424	200	224	5.5	54%	46%	41%	39%	13%	.26
LSU Defense	14	19.8	16.9	40.8%	3.34	2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	45%	37%	15%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FLA Defense	13	24	30.4	45.3%	4.36	2	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	47%	44%	14%	.23
LSU Offense	14	22.8	25.7	51.3%	4.6	1.4	25	453	184	269	5	47%	53%	55%	48%	13%	.33

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Florida	13	29:02	20	40%	47%	6.8	50.1	1.1	2	5.4	1.8	2	28.3
LSU	14	31:01	24.6	49%	50%	6	52.1	1.4	2	4.8	1.9	2	27.8

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FLA Offense	13	54%	41%	36.3	200.2	5.5	29	.26	3.17	80%	8%	1.29
LSU Defense	14	49%	45%	-	-	-	-	.14	2.9	74%	10%	0.93

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FLA Defense	13	55%	47%	-	-	-	-	.21	3.17	73%	10%	1.05
LSU Offense	14	47%	55%	37	183.8	5	39	.35	3.63	80%	9%	0.99

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FLA Offense	13	46%	39%	15.3	28.2	223.8	8	14.6	18	9	.3	1.8	35%	30%	.43	5%	2.3
LSU Defense	14	51%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.17	1.7	32%	32%	.38	5%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FLA Defense	13	44%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.28	1.6	31%	39%	.46	4%	2
LSU Offense	14	53%	48%	23	34.3	269.3	7.9	11.7	23	7	.32	1.4	27%	35%	.43	4%	2

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 8.25 #26
Florida's Offense Rating: 23.02 #19
Florida's Defense Rating: 11.38 #90
2023 Talent Rating: 845.29 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 65% #10
Florida's 2023 Expected Record: 6.50 - 5.50
Florida's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.9 #42
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #42
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #64

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida: 8.25 LSU: 20.385

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida: 5.9 LSU: 18.7

LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 20.385 #8
LSU's Offense Rating: 35.07 #1
LSU's Defense Rating: 15.64 #122
2023 Talent Rating: 899.31 #7
Blue Chip Ratio: 70 #7
LSU's 2023 Expected Record: 9.70 - 3.30
LSU's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.7 #10
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.1 #2
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Florida Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 13
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.4

Florida's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
LSU 35
Florida 21

Projected Total Points: 56

LSU Scoring
Offense: 22.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.9

LSU's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 12 - 1
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/13	LSU	20	Florida	10	LSU -5.5	LSU	47.5	Under
2024	11/16	Florida	27	LSU	16	LSU -3	Florida	57.0	Under
2023	11/11	LSU	52	Florida	35	LSU -14	LSU	68.5	Over
2022	10/15	Florida	35	LSU	45	Florida -2	LSU	51.5	Over
2021	10/16	LSU	49	Florida	42	Florida -12.5	LSU	61.0	Over
2020	12/12	Florida	34	LSU	37	Florida -23	LSU	65.5	Over
2019	10/12	LSU	42	Florida	28	LSU -14	Push	55.5	Over
2018	10/06	Florida	27	LSU	19	LSU -1	Florida	44.0	Over
2017	10/07	Florida	16	LSU	17	LSU -1.5	Florida	44.0	Under
2016	11/19	LSU	10	Florida	16	LSU -10.5	Florida	38.0	Under
2015	10/17	LSU	35	Florida	28	LSU -6.5	LSU	43.5	Over
2014	10/11	Florida	27	LSU	30	LSU -1	LSU	0
2013	10/12	LSU	17	Florida	6	LSU -5	LSU	0
2012	10/06	Florida	14	LSU	6
2011	10/08	LSU	41	Florida	11
2010	10/09	Florida	29	LSU	33
2009	10/10	LSU	3	Florida	13
2008	10/11	Florida	51	LSU	21
2007	10/06	LSU	28	Florida	24
2006	10/07	Florida	23	LSU	10
2005	10/15	LSU	21	Florida	17
2004	10/09	Florida	21	LSU	24
2003	10/11	LSU	7	Florida	19
2002	10/12	Florida	7	LSU	36
2001	10/06	LSU	15	Florida	44
2000	10/06	Florida	41	LSU	9

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
LSU	16	8	7 Overs
Florida	10	4	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 11	8 - 4	4 - 3	4 - 1
Road Teams	11 - 15	4 - 8	1 - 4	3 - 4

(#26) FLA at (#8) LSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	FLA	LSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#26	#8
SP+SP+	#42	#10
Perf GradeGrade	#47	#11
OffenseOff	#37	#2
DefenseDef	#83	#53
Spec TeamsST	#105	#102
TalentTal	#15	#7
Blue ChipsBC%	#10	#7

Florida Injury Report

LSU Injury Report

Florida on Offense


CategoryCat	FLA Off	LSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#37	#53
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#19	#122
SP+SP+	#42	#55
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Florida Run Game


CategoryCat	FLA Off	LSU Def
Run GameRun	#64	#49
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#26	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#17

Florida Pass Game


CategoryCat	FLA Off	LSU Def
Pass GamePass	#55	#95
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#63	#30
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

LSU on Offense


CategoryCat	LSU Off	FLA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#2	#83
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#1	#90
SP+SP+	#2	#64
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

LSU Run Game


CategoryCat	LSU Off	FLA Def
Run GameRun	#1	#54
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#7	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#115

LSU Pass Game


CategoryCat	LSU Off	FLA Def
Pass GamePass	#2	#115
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#10	#64
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
LSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'23 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

FLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Tiger Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 11
LSU -14.0 (68.5)
LSU won vs Florida this year (52-35)

Previous Matchups
LSU beat Florida last year (20-10)
Florida beat LSU in 2024 (27-16)
LSU beat Florida in 2023 (52-35)

FLA's OC Rob Sale (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Graham Mertz (Tr)	260	357	73%	2878	20	3	8.1
Max Brown	19	28	68%	192	0	1	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Montrell Johnson	152	817	5	5.4	52
Trevor Etienne	131	753	8	5.7	62
Treyaun Webb	26	163	2	6.3	43
Ricky Pearsall	3	62	2	20.7	39

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ricky Pearsall	64	970	4	15.2	61
Eugene Wilson	61	538	6	8.8	30
Arlis Boardingham	26	289	4	11.1	25
Kahleil Jackson	21	251	1	12.0	45

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Austin Armstrong (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Castell	59	2	0	0	3
Shemar James	55	6	1	0	0
Scooby Williams	52	4	1	4	0
Jaydon Hill	39	4	2	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Princely Umanmielen	39	11	7	16	0
Derek Wingo	18	4	3	2	1
Jaydon Hill	39	4	2	2	3
Kelby Collins	24	2	2	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jason Marshall Jr.	26	3	1	0	11
Jalen Kimber	23	0	0	1	5
Jordan Castell	59	2	0	0	3

LSU's OC Mike Denbrock (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jayden Daniels	236	327	72%	3812	40	4	11.7
Garrett Nussmeier	48	78	62%	592	4	1	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jayden Daniels	135	1134	10	8.4	85
Logan Diggs (Tr)	119	653	7	5.5	35
Josh Williams	55	284	5	5.2	41
Noah Cain	37	181	3	4.9	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Nabers	89	1569	14	17.6	51
Brian Thomas Jr.	68	1177	17	17.3	86
Kyren Lacy	30	558	7	18.6	57
Mason Taylor	36	348	1	9.7	25

View LSU's Full Roster

LSU's DC Matt House (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Major Burns	90	4	1	2	3
Greg Penn III	89	7	4	1	1
Andre Sam (Tr)	82	1	0	0	2
Harold Perkins	74	13	6	6	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Harold Perkins	74	13	6	6	4
Mehki Wingo	25	5	5	0	0
Greg Penn III	89	7	4	1	1
Ovie Oghoufo (Tr)	33	4	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zy Alexander (Tr)	44	0	0	0	7
Sage Ryan	41	4	0	0	5
Harold Perkins	74	13	6	6	4