Vanderbilt at Ole Miss - 2023 Matchup Preview

(#10)Vanderbilt Commodores at Ole Miss Rebels(#8)

Saturday, October 28th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Ole Miss -24 (62.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Ole Miss 33 - Vanderbilt: 7 (SEC)

Commodores (2 - 10) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Clark Lea (9 - 19)
Avg Score : 23 - 36 (18 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2.8 - 9.2 (#130)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

VAN coming off BYE
Our Line: Ole Miss -28.5 (SP+ MISS -30)
Projected Score: VAN: 17 - MISS: 45 (62)
MISS Win prob: 96% | Cover: 57%
VAN Travel: 197 miles

Rebels (11 - 2) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Lane Kiffin (26 - 13)
Avg Score : 35 - 23 (44 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
VAN Players
MISS Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Vanderbilt's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Vanderbilt vs Hawai'i	-17.0	54.5	W 35 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/2	Vanderbilt vs Alabama A&M	-35.0	53.5	W 47 - 13	O	N
Sat 9/9	Vanderbilt at Wake Forest	+9.5	55.0	L 20 - 36	O	N
Sat 9/16	Vanderbilt at UNLV	-4.5	56.5	L 37 - 40	O	N
Sat 9/23	Vanderbilt vs Kentucky	+13.5	50.0	L 28 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/30	Vanderbilt vs Missouri	+14.0	53.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/7	Vanderbilt at Florida	+18.0	51.0	L 14 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/14	Vanderbilt vs Georgia	+32.5	55.0	L 20 - 37	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Vanderbilt at Ole Miss	+24.0	62.0	L 7 - 33	U	N
Sat 11/4	Vanderbilt vs Auburn	+12.5	50.0	L 15 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/11	Vanderbilt at South Carolina	+13.5	53.5	L 6 - 47	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/25	Vanderbilt at Tennessee	+27.0	58.0	L 24 - 48	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Vanderbilt's Schedule

Ole Miss's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Ole Miss vs Mercer	-35.0	59.5	W 73 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Ole Miss at Tulane	-8.0	64.0	W 37 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Ole Miss vs Georgia Tech	-17.0	61.5	W 48 - 23	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Ole Miss at Alabama	+7.0	56.0	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Ole Miss vs LSU	+3.0	67.0	W 55 - 49	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Ole Miss vs Arkansas	-13.0	61.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Ole Miss at Auburn	-6.5	55.5	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt	-24.0	62.0	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Ole Miss vs Texas A&M	-3.0	52.5	W 38 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/11	Ole Miss at Georgia	+11.0	59.0	L 17 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/18	Ole Miss vs UL Monroe	-35.5	59.5	W 35 - 3	U	N
Thu 11/23	Ole Miss at Mississippi State	-11.0	56.0	W 17 - 7	U	N
Sat 12/30	Ole Miss vs Penn State	+5.5	53.0	W 38 - 25	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
VAN	#127 (.05)	36% (123)	22.8	37% (124)	2.92 (103)	95	37% (109)	223	4.09 (50)	#131 (.33)	45% (106)	36.2	42% (59)	48% (131)	4.11 (98)	42.5	1.7	1.3
MISS	#30 (.28)	44% (44)	35.1	44% (54)	2.94 (100)	176	45% (31)	286	4.72 (13)	#68 (.18)	42% (62)	22.5	43% (74)	41% (54)	3.64 (55)	59.1	0.5	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
VAN	#76 (.17)	42% (75)		42% (93)	2.8 (105)	129	43% (53)	166	4.25 (34)	#111 (.25)	47% (121)		46% (96)	48% (125)	4.22 (109)	48.3	0.5	1.1
MISS	#4 (.34)	47% (19)		44% (76)	3.02 (72)	164	51% (3)	317	4 (58)	#6 (.04)	35% (3)		35% (6)	36% (13)	2.98 (8)	68.5	0.9	1.6

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
VAN Offense	12	22.8	18	36.4%	4.09	1.7	17	319	95	223	3.3	42%	56%	37%	37%	22%	.05
MISS Defense	13	22.5	20.6	41.6%	3.64	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	43%	41%	18%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
VAN Defense	12	36.2	40.3	44.8%	4.11	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	42%	48%	15%	.33
MISS Offense	13	35.1	44.1	44.4%	4.72	0.5	23	462	176	286	4.3	54%	45%	44%	45%	15%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Vanderbilt	12	28:46	17	33%	30%	4.9	42.5	1.7	1.3	5.4	1.8	3	29.5
Ole Miss	13	27:43	23.5	37%	69%	7.2	59.1	0.5	1.4	5.9	2.6	1	29

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
VAN Offense	12	42% (116)	37% (124)	29.2	95.3	3.3	10 (124)	-.01 (128)	2.92 (103)	74% (63)	12% (102)	0.96 (91)
MISS Defense	13	50% (62)	43% (74)	-	-	-	-	.14 (70)	3.21 (96)	86% (127)	11% (30)	0.98 (58)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
VAN Defense	12	47% (28)	42% (59)	-	-	-	-	.25 (119)	3.08 (61)	72% (60)	9% (90)	1.17 (122)
MISS Offense	13	54% (37)	44% (54)	41.1	176.5	4.3	29 (22)	.17 (60)	2.94 (100)	70% (95)	11% (80)	1.05 (44)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
VAN Offense	12	56% (21)	37% (109)	18.1	32.5	223.3	6.9	12.4	23 (51)	13 (97)	.14 (113)	1.7 (30)	37% (130)	25% (113)	.1 (129)	10% (133)	2 (91)
MISS Defense	13	49% (70)	41% (54)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.26 (59)	1.6 (79)	32% (65)	27% (26)	.23 (31)	7% (43)	2 (35)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
VAN Defense	12	52% (100)	48% (131)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.43 (126)	1.6 (56)	31% (88)	37% (126)	.46 (123)	5% (96)	1.9 (25)
MISS Offense	13	45% (97)	45% (31)	19.7	30.4	285.6	9.4	14.5	26 (31)	6 (14)	.45 (17)	1.7 (21)	32% (72)	33% (55)	.43 (39)	5% (22)	2.2 (28)

Vanderbilt's Power Ratings
Vanderbilt's Power Rating: -11.51 #122
Vanderbilt's Offense Rating: 10.08 #122
Vanderbilt's Defense Rating: 17.21 #124
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #57
Vanderbilt's 2023 Expected Record: 2.80 - 9.20
Vanderbilt's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.7 #113
Vanderbilt's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.1 #84
Vanderbilt's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #125

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Vanderbilt: -11.51 Ole Miss: 16.14

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Vanderbilt: -13.7 Ole Miss: 16.0

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 16.14 #18
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 22.85 #22
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 8.12 #47
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 36 #21
Ole Miss's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
Ole Miss's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.0 #14
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #21
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8 #21

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Vanderbilt Scoring
Offense: 22.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 18
Defense: 36.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 40.3

Vanderbilt's 2023 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Ole Miss 45
Vanderbilt 17

Total Points: 62

Based on Last 4 Games
Ole Miss 37
Vanderbilt 24

Total Points: 62

Based on Entire Season
Ole Miss 39
Vanderbilt 21

Total Points: 60

Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 35.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 44.1
Defense: 22.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.6

Ole Miss's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/28	Ole Miss	33	Vanderbilt	7	Ole Miss -24	Ole Miss	62.0	Under
2022	10/08	Vanderbilt	28	Ole Miss	52	Ole Miss -17	Ole Miss	59.5	Over
2021	11/20	Ole Miss	31	Vanderbilt	17	Ole Miss -35.5	Vanderbilt	66.5	Under
2020	10/31	Vanderbilt	21	Ole Miss	54	Ole Miss -18.0	Ole Miss	0
2019	10/05	Ole Miss	31	Vanderbilt	6	Ole Miss -6.5	Ole Miss	63.5	Under
2018	11/17	Vanderbilt	36	Ole Miss	29	Vanderbilt -3	Vanderbilt	72.5	Under
2017	10/14	Ole Miss	57	Vanderbilt	35	Ole Miss -3.5	Ole Miss	56.5	Over
2016	11/19	Vanderbilt	38	Ole Miss	17	Ole Miss -9.5	Vanderbilt	50.0	Over
2015	09/26	Ole Miss	27	Vanderbilt	16	Ole Miss -28	Vanderbilt	53.5	Under
2014	09/06	Vanderbilt	3	Ole Miss	41	Ole Miss -14	Ole Miss	0
2013	08/29	Vanderbilt	35	Ole Miss	39	Vanderbilt -1.5	Ole Miss	0
2012	11/10	Ole Miss	26	Vanderbilt	27
2011	09/17	Vanderbilt	30	Ole Miss	7
2010	09/18	Ole Miss	14	Vanderbilt	28
2009	10/03	Vanderbilt	7	Ole Miss	23
2008	09/20	Ole Miss	17	Vanderbilt	23
2007	09/15	Vanderbilt	31	Ole Miss	17
2006	10/07	Ole Miss	17	Vanderbilt	10
2005	09/17	Vanderbilt	31	Ole Miss	23
2004	09/18	Ole Miss	26	Vanderbilt	23
2003	08/30	Vanderbilt	21	Ole Miss	24
2002	09/21	Ole Miss	45	Vanderbilt	38
2001	12/01	Ole Miss	38	Vanderbilt	27
2000	09/15	Vanderbilt	7	Ole Miss	12

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ole Miss	16	7	3 Overs
Vanderbilt	8	4	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 10	5 - 6	4 - 3	1 - 3
Road Teams	10 - 14	6 - 5	3 - 1	3 - 4

(#122) VAN at (#18) MISS

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	VAN	MISS
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#122	#18
SP+SP+	#113	#14
Perf GradeGrade	#129	#24
OffenseOff	#116	#18
DefenseDef	#126	#60
Spec TeamsST	#115	#11
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#57	#21

Vanderbilt Injury Report

Ole Miss Injury Report

Vanderbilt on Offense


CategoryCat	VAN Off	MISS Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#116	#60
SuccessSuc	#123	#62
ExplosiveExp	#13	#69
PPAPPA	#127	#68
PowerPwr	#122	#47
SP+SP+	#84	#21
Pts POPPO	#50	#55
HavocHav	#132	#33

Vanderbilt Run Game


CategoryCat	VAN Off	MISS Def
Run GameRun	#104	#82
Run SuccessRSuc	#124	#74
Run ExplRExp	#91	#58
PPAExp	#128	#70
Run BlockR Blk	#112	-
OL YdsOLY	#103	#96
Stuff RateStuff	#95	#105
TackleTak	-	#38

Vanderbilt Pass Game


CategoryCat	VAN Off	MISS Def
Pass GamePass	#103	#74
Pass SuccessPSuc	#109	#54
Pass ExplPExl	#30	#79
PPAExp	#113	#59
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#122	#40
F7 HavocF7	#102	#30
DB HavocDB	#133	#43

Ole Miss on Offense


CategoryCat	MISS Off	VAN Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#18	#126
SuccessSuc	#44	#106
ExplosiveExp	#26	#113
PPAPPA	#30	#131
PowerPwr	#22	#124
SP+SP+	#21	#125
Pts POPPO	#13	#98
HavocHav	#60	#101

Ole Miss Run Game


CategoryCat	MISS Off	VAN Def
Run GameRun	#7	#105
Run SuccessRSuc	#54	#59
Run ExplRExp	#44	#122
PPAExp	#60	#119
Run BlockR Blk	#83	-
OL YdsOLY	#100	#61
Stuff RateStuff	#123	#49
TackleTak	-	#103

Ole Miss Pass Game


CategoryCat	MISS Off	VAN Def
Pass GamePass	#6	#121
Pass SuccessPSuc	#31	#131
Pass ExplPExl	#21	#56
PPAExp	#17	#126
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#87	#124
F7 HavocF7	#80	#90
DB HavocDB	#22	#96

Program Comparison
MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

VAN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 77°

Rematch from Week 9
Ole Miss -24.0 (62.0)
Ole Miss won vs Vanderbilt this year (33-7)

Previous Matchups
Ole Miss beat Vanderbilt in 2023 (33-7)
Ole Miss beat Vanderbilt in 2022 (52-28)

VAN's OC Joey Lynch (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
AJ Swann	106	196	54%	1418	12	7	7.2
Ken Seals	106	179	59%	1218	11	4	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sedrick Alexander	96	370	4	3.9	27
Patrick Smith	79	327	2	4.1	40
Jayden McGowan	19	108	0	5.7	18
Walter Taylor	30	102	1	3.4	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Will Sheppard	47	684	8	14.6	85
London Humphreys	22	439	4	20.0	56
Jayden McGowan	36	383	0	10.6	50
Junior Sherrill	20	293	3	14.7	52

View Vanderbilt's Full Roster

VAN's DC Nick Howell (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Langston Patterson	74	8	1	2	0
Jaylen Mahoney	59	1	0	0	6
CJ Taylor	55	8	3	1	3
Ethan Barr	54	3	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nate Clifton	30	8	6	4	1
CJ Taylor	55	8	3	1	3
Aeneas DiCosmo (Tr)	33	6	3	3	0
Kane Patterson	43	6	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jaylen Mahoney	59	1	6
Trudell Berry	21	1	4
BJ Anderson	8	0	3

MISS's OC John David Baker (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaxson Dart	233	359	65%	3364	23	5	9.4
Spencer Sanders (Tr)	19	29	66%	278	3	0	9.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quinshon Judkins	271	1158	15	4.3	40
Ulysses Bentley IV	95	540	4	5.7	43
Jaxson Dart	119	391	8	3.3	68
Matt Jones	12	79	2	6.6	36

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Harris (Tr)	54	985	8	18.2	56
Dayton Wade	55	830	4	15.1	58
Jordan Watkins	53	741	3	14.0	68
Caden Prieskorn (Tr)	30	449	4	15.0	37

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Pete Golding (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey Washington	83	2	0	0	2
Ashanti Cistrunk (Tr)	71	5	3	1	0
John Saunders Jr.	65	2	0	1	4
Daijahn Anthony	61	3	0	0	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jared Ivey	46	12	6	4	2
Cedric Johnson	40	7	6	12	3
Suntarine Perkins	38	6	4	1	1
Isaac Ukwu (Tr)	30	5	4	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Daijahn Anthony	61	3	0	8
Zamari Walton (Tr)	38	4	0	6
Deantre Prince	36	5	1	5