Michigan State at Minnesota - 2023 Matchup Preview

Michigan State Spartans at Minnesota Golden Gophers

Saturday, October 28th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Minnesota -6.5 (41.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Minnesota 27 - Michigan State: 12 (Big Ten)

Spartans (4 - 8) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Harlon Barnett (0 - 1)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (22 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Minnesota -6 (SP+ MINN -6)
Projected Score: MSU: 20 - MINN: 26 (46)
MINN Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
MSU Travel: 462 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Golden Gophers (6 - 7) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach P. J. Fleck (46 - 28)
Avg Score : 23 - 23 (30 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.8 - 8.2 (#102)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSU Players
MINN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Michigan State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Michigan State vs Central Michigan	-14.0	45.0	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Michigan State vs Richmond	-29.5	43.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Michigan State vs Washington	+14.5	57.0	L 7 - 41	U	N
Sat 9/23	Michigan State vs Maryland	+7.0	52.5	L 9 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/30	Michigan State at Iowa	+10.0	36.5	L 16 - 26	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Michigan State at Rutgers	+4.0	38.5	L 24 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Michigan State vs Michigan	+25.5	47.0	L 0 - 49	O	N
Sat 10/28	Michigan State at Minnesota	+6.5	41.5	L 12 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Michigan State vs Nebraska	+3.0	34.5	W 20 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Michigan State at Ohio State	+30.5	48.5	L 3 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/18	Michigan State at Indiana	+3.5	47.5	W 24 - 21	U	Y
Fri 11/24	Michigan State vs Penn State	+20.0	42.0	L 0 - 42	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule

Minnesota's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Minnesota vs Nebraska	-7.5	43.0	W 13 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/9	Minnesota vs Eastern Michigan	-19.5	48.0	W 25 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/16	Minnesota at North Carolina	+7.0	51.0	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/23	Minnesota at Northwestern	-11.5	39.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/30	Minnesota vs Louisiana	-9.5	49.0	W 35 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Minnesota vs Michigan	+18.5	46.0	L 10 - 52	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Minnesota at Iowa	+3.0	30.5	W 12 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Minnesota vs Michigan State	-6.5	41.5	W 27 - 12	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Minnesota vs Illinois	-1.5	43.0	L 26 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/11	Minnesota at Purdue	-1.5	48.5	L 30 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/18	Minnesota at Ohio State	+27.5	51.5	L 3 - 37	U	N
Sat 11/25	Minnesota vs Wisconsin	+1.5	42.0	L 14 - 28	U	N
Tue 12/26	Minnesota vs Bowling Green	-2.5	45.0	W 30 - 24	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU	.14	40%	24.6	39%	2.7	113	42%	240	3.77	.26	46%	29.9	43%	49%	3.81	54.5	1.3	1.3
MINN	.24	48%	23	49%	3.3	207	48%	182	4.36	.12	37%	22.9	38%	36%	2.84	31.8	1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MINN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Offense	12	24.6	21.6	39.9%	3.77	1.3	20	353	113	240	3.8	44%	55%	39%	42%	16%	.14
MINN Defense	13	22.9	13	36.7%	2.84	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	38%	36%	13%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Defense	12	29.9	32.8	45.8%	3.81	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	43%	49%	15%	.26
MINN Offense	13	23	30.1	47.8%	4.36	1	22	390	207	182	4.6	64%	35%	49%	48%	12%	.24

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Michigan State	12	26:12	20.1	39%	43%	5.8	54.5	1.3	1.3	6.3	2.4	1	28.1
Minnesota	13	34:28	21.5	52%	55%	3.5	31.8	1	1.6	3.3	1.5	1	29.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Offense	12	44%	39%	30.1	113	3.8	16	.05	2.7	63%	9%	0.96
MINN Defense	13	47%	38%	-	-	-	-	.09	2.99	76%	7%	0.99

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Defense	12	54%	43%	-	-	-	-	.11	3.04	63%	11%	0.96
MINN Offense	13	64%	49%	44.8	207.4	4.6	33	.22	3.3	85%	7%	0.9

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Offense	12	55%	42%	21.5	34.3	240	7	11.2	23	12	.24	1.5	32%	31%	.28	7%	2
MINN Defense	13	52%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.17	1.5	37%	25%	.21	6%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Defense	12	46%	49%	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	.45	1.6	29%	35%	.48	4%	2.1
MINN Offense	13	35%	48%	13.2	21.6	182.2	8.4	13.8	12	9	.37	1.5	28%	40%	.45	5%	1.7

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: -5.38 #92
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 8.07 #127
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 10.68 #82
2023 Talent Rating: 747.34 #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 18% #34
Michigan State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Michigan State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #86
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.1 #122
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #47

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -5.38 Minnesota: -0.24

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -6.9 Minnesota: -1.3

Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: -0.24 #88
Minnesota's Offense Rating: 12.36 #108
Minnesota's Defense Rating: 12.35 #99
2023 Talent Rating: 640.46 #57
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #43
Minnesota's 2023 Expected Record: 4.80 - 8.20
Minnesota's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.3 #69
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.9 #105
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #37

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.6
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Michigan State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Minnesota 26
Michigan State 20

Projected Total Points: 46

Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.1
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 13

Minnesota's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/01	Minnesota	23	Michigan State	20	Minnesota -4.5	Michigan State	44.5	Under
2023	10/28	Minnesota	27	Michigan State	12	Minnesota -6.5	Minnesota	41.5	Under
2022	09/24	Michigan State	7	Minnesota	34	Minnesota -3	Minnesota	50.0	Under
2017	10/14	Minnesota	27	Michigan State	30	Michigan State -4	Minnesota	40.5	Over
2013	11/30	Michigan State	14	Minnesota	3	Michigan State -14	Minnesota	0
2012	11/24	Minnesota	10	Michigan State	26
2011	11/05	Michigan State	31	Minnesota	24
2010	11/06	Michigan State	31	Minnesota	8
2009	10/31	Minnesota	42	Michigan State	34
2006	11/11	Michigan State	18	Minnesota	31
2005	11/12	Minnesota	41	Michigan State	18
2004	10/16	Michigan State	51	Minnesota	17
2003	10/18	Minnesota	38	Michigan State	44
2002	10/19	Michigan State	7	Minnesota	28
2001	10/20	Minnesota	28	Michigan State	19

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Minnesota	8	4	1 Overs
Michigan State	7	1	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 6	2 - 3	1 - 2	1 - 1
Road Teams	6 - 9	3 - 2	1 - 1	2 - 1

(#92) MSU at (#88) MINN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSU	MINN
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#92	#88
SP+SP+	#86	#69
Perf GradeGrade	#124	#70
OffenseOff	#125	#61
DefenseDef	#115	#91
Spec TeamsST	#68	#96
TalentTal	#27	#57
Blue ChipsBC%	#34	#43

Michigan State Injury Report

Minnesota Injury Report

Michigan State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSU Off	MINN Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#125	#91
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#127	#99
SP+SP+	#122	#37
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Michigan State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	MINN Def
Run GameRun	#122	#110
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#73	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#113

Michigan State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	MINN Def
Pass GamePass	#130	#85
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#113	#31
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Minnesota on Offense


CategoryCat	MINN Off	MSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#61	#115
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#108	#82
SP+SP+	#105	#47
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Minnesota Run Game


CategoryCat	MINN Off	MSU Def
Run GameRun	#44	#56
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#37	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#74

Minnesota Pass Game


CategoryCat	MINN Off	MSU Def
Pass GamePass	#108	#133
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#69	#70
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MINN 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'23 Profile: Down to Top G5

MSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Huntington Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
Minnesota -6.5 (41.5)
Minnesota won vs Michigan State this year (27-12)

Previous Matchups
Minnesota beat Michigan State last year (23-20)
Minnesota beat Michigan State in 2023 (27-12)

MSU's OC Jay Johnson (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Katin Houser	113	193	59%	1098	6	5	5.7
Noah Kim	91	160	57%	1090	6	6	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nathan Carter (Tr)	186	792	4	4.3	44
Jalen Berger	25	93	1	3.7	12
Jaren Mangham (Tr)	30	71	0	2.4	8
Sam Leavitt	13	67	0	5.2	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Montorie Foster	43	575	3	13.4	42
Maliq Carr	32	335	3	10.5	36
Tre Mosley	28	288	2	10.3	30
Jaron Glover	14	261	0	18.6	33

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Scottie Hazelton (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cal Haladay	91	6	1	1	0
Angelo Grose	72	3	1	0	5
Malik Spencer	72	2	0	1	6
Jordan Hall	67	8	5	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aaron Brule	64	9	5	1	2
Jordan Hall	67	8	5	0	1
Simeon Barrow Jr.	36	6	4	7	0
Brandon Wright	19	2	2	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dillon Tatum	45	3	0	1	7
Malik Spencer	72	2	0	1	6
Angelo Grose	72	3	1	0	5

MINN's OC Greg Harbaugh Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Athan Kaliakmanis	156	294	53%	1838	14	9	6.3
Cole Kramer	8	17	47%	26	2	2	1.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Darius Taylor	138	799	5	5.8	43
Jordan Nubin	127	559	3	4.4	21
Sean Tyler (Tr)	61	242	0	4.0	19
Zach Evans	52	230	1	4.4	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Daniel Jackson	59	831	8	14.1	39
Corey Crooms (Tr)	28	376	0	13.4	32
Brevyn Spann-Ford	25	239	2	9.6	31
Darius Taylor	11	92	0	8.4	25

View Minnesota's Full Roster

MINN's DC Nick Monroe (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jack Henderson (Tr)	52	4	0	0	1
Tre'Von Jones	51	4	1	0	6
Tyler Nubin	50	1	1	0	3
Maverick Baranowski	48	4	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jah Joyner	18	8	8	2	0
Danny Striggow	42	6	6	2	0
Kyler Baugh	39	5	3	3	3
Jalen Logan-Redding	29	3	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Justin Walley	38	2	0	8
Tre'Von Jones	51	4	1	6
Tyler Nubin	50	1	1	3