Michigan State at Minnesota Game Matchup

Michigan State Spartans at Minnesota Golden Gophers

Saturday, October 28th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Minnesota -6.5 (41.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Minnesota 27 - Michigan State: 12 (Big Ten)

Spartans (4 - 8) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Harlon Barnett (Int) (0 - 1)
Avg Score : 19 - 26 (18 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Minnesota -6 (SP+ MINN -6)
Projected Score: MSU: 19 - MINN: 25 (44)
MINN Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
MSU Travel: 462 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Golden Gophers (6 - 7) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach P. J. Fleck (46 - 28)
Avg Score : 26 - 17 (29 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.8 - 8.2 (#102)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSU Players
MINN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Michigan State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Michigan State vs Central Michigan	-14.0	45.0	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Michigan State vs Richmond	-29.5	43.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Michigan State vs Washington	+14.5	57.0	L 7 - 41	U	N
Sat 9/23	Michigan State vs Maryland	+7.0	52.5	L 9 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/30	Michigan State at Iowa	+10.0	36.5	L 16 - 26	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Michigan State at Rutgers	+4.0	38.5	L 24 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Michigan State vs Michigan	+25.5	47.0	L 0 - 49	O	N
Sat 10/28	Michigan State at Minnesota	+6.5	41.5	L 12 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Michigan State vs Nebraska	+3.0	34.5	W 20 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Michigan State at Ohio State	+30.5	48.5	L 3 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/18	Michigan State at Indiana	+3.5	47.5	W 24 - 21	U	Y
Fri 11/24	Michigan State vs Penn State	+20.0	42.0	L 0 - 42	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule

Minnesota's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Minnesota vs Nebraska	-7.5	43.0	W 13 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/9	Minnesota vs Eastern Michigan	-19.5	48.0	W 25 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/16	Minnesota at North Carolina	+7.0	51.0	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/23	Minnesota at Northwestern	-11.5	39.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/30	Minnesota vs Louisiana	-9.5	49.0	W 35 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Minnesota vs Michigan	+18.5	46.0	L 10 - 52	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Minnesota at Iowa	+3.0	30.5	W 12 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Minnesota vs Michigan State	-6.5	41.5	W 27 - 12	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Minnesota vs Illinois	-1.5	43.0	L 26 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/11	Minnesota at Purdue	-1.5	48.5	L 30 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/18	Minnesota at Ohio State	+27.5	51.5	L 3 - 37	U	N
Sat 11/25	Minnesota vs Wisconsin	+1.5	42.0	L 14 - 28	U	N
Tue 12/26	Minnesota vs Bowling Green	-2.5	45.0	W 30 - 24	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU	.14	40%	19.3	39%	2.7	113	42%	240	3.77	.26	46%	26.1	43%	49%	3.81	54.5	1.3	1.3
MINN	.24	48%	26.2	49%	3.3	207	48%	182	4.36	.12	37%	16.9	38%	36%	2.84	31.8	1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MINN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Offense	12	19.3	17.8	39.9%	3.77	1.3	20	353	113	240	3.8	44%	55%	39%	42%	16%	.14
MINN Defense	13	16.9	16.6	36.7%	2.84	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	38%	36%	13%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Defense	12	26.1	28	45.8%	3.81	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	43%	49%	15%	.26
MINN Offense	13	26.2	29	47.8%	4.36	1	22	390	207	182	4.6	64%	35%	49%	48%	12%	.24

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Michigan State	12	26:12	20.1	39%	43%	5.8	54.5	1.3	1.3	6.3	2.4	1	28.1
Minnesota	13	34:28	21.5	52%	55%	3.5	31.8	1	1.6	3.3	1.5	1	29.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Offense	12	44%	39%	30.1	113	3.8	16	.05	2.7	63%	9%	0.96
MINN Defense	13	47%	38%	-	-	-	-	.09	2.99	76%	7%	0.99

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Defense	12	54%	43%	-	-	-	-	.11	3.04	63%	11%	0.96
MINN Offense	13	64%	49%	44.8	207.4	4.6	33	.22	3.3	85%	7%	0.9

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Offense	12	55%	42%	21.5	34.3	240	7	11.2	23	12	.24	1.5	32%	31%	.28	7%	2
MINN Defense	13	52%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.17	1.5	37%	25%	.21	6%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Defense	12	46%	49%	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	.45	1.6	29%	35%	.48	4%	2.1
MINN Offense	13	35%	48%	13.2	21.6	182.2	8.4	13.8	12	9	.37	1.5	28%	40%	.45	5%	1.7

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: -5.38 #92
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 8.07 #127
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 10.68 #82
2023 Talent Rating: 756.00 #36
Blue Chip Ratio: 18% #34
Michigan State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Michigan State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #86
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.1 #122
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #47

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 821.44
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -5.38 Minnesota: -0.24

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -6.9 Minnesota: -1.3

Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: -0.24 #88
Minnesota's Offense Rating: 12.36 #108
Minnesota's Defense Rating: 12.35 #99
2023 Talent Rating: 800.00 #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #43
Minnesota's 2023 Expected Record: 4.80 - 8.20
Minnesota's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.3 #69
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.9 #105
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #37

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 821.44
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 26.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

Michigan State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Minnesota 25
Michigan State 19

Projected Total Points: 44

Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 16.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.6

Minnesota's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/28	Minnesota	27	Michigan State	12	Minnesota	Minnesota -6.5	Minnesota	41.5	Under
2022	09/24	Michigan State	7	Minnesota	34	Minnesota	Minnesota -3	Minnesota	50.0	Under
2017	10/14	Minnesota	27	Michigan State	30	Michigan State	Michigan State -4	Minnesota	40.5	Over
2013	11/30	Michigan State	14	Minnesota	3	Michigan State	Michigan State -14	Minnesota	0
2012	11/24	Minnesota	10	Michigan State	26	Michigan State
2011	11/05	Michigan State	31	Minnesota	24	Michigan State
2010	11/06	Michigan State	31	Minnesota	8	Michigan State
2009	10/31	Minnesota	42	Michigan State	34	Minnesota
2006	11/11	Michigan State	18	Minnesota	31	Minnesota
2005	11/12	Minnesota	41	Michigan State	18	Minnesota
2004	10/16	Michigan State	51	Minnesota	17	Michigan State
2003	10/18	Minnesota	38	Michigan State	44	Michigan State
2002	10/19	Michigan State	7	Minnesota	28	Minnesota
2001	10/20	Minnesota	28	Michigan State	19	Minnesota

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Minnesota	7	4	1 Overs
Michigan State	7	0	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 6	2 - 2	1 - 1	1 - 1
Road Teams	6 - 8	2 - 2	1 - 1	1 - 1

(#92) Michigan State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -5.38 #92
Offense Rating: 8.07 #127
Defense Rating: 10.68 #82
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #86
Offense SP+ Rating: 16.1 #122
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #47
Talent Rating: 756.00 #36
Blue Chip Ratio: 18% #34
Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90

Team Profile

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Michigan State Ratings Matchup Minnesota

Power #92

#88

Off #127

#108

Def #82

#99

Talent #36

#30

SP+ #86

#69

SP+ Off #122

#105

SP+ Def #47

#37

Rematch from Week 9
Minnesota -6.5 (41.5)
Minnesota won vs Michigan State this year (27-12)

Previous Matchups
Minnesota beat Michigan State in 2023 (27-12)
Minnesota beat Michigan State in 2022 (34-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Huntington Bank Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 34° - Wind: 6 mph

Team Information
Injuries: MSU | MINN
Depth Chart: MSU | MINN
Rosters: MSU | MINN

(#88) Minnesota Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -0.24 #88
Offense Rating: 12.36 #108
Defense Rating: 12.35 #99
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.3 #69
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.9 #105
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #37
Talent Rating: 800.00 #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #43
Expected Record: 4.80 - 8.20

Team Profile

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Michigan State's OC Jay Johnson

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sam Leavitt	216	350	62%	2885	24	6	8.2
Katin Houser	149	245	61%	2006	18	11	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Simmons	110	664	2	6.0	73
Nathan Carter (Tr)	116	499	5	4.3	60
Sam Leavitt	110	443	5	4.0	40
Jalen Berger	48	178	0	3.7	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Montorie Foster	46	588	3	12.8	40
Christian Fitzpatrick	34	576	6	16.9	69
Maliq Carr	19	186	1	9.8	23
Jordan Simmons	21	183	0	8.7	52

View Michigan State's Full Roster

Michigan State's DC Scottie Hazelton

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cal Haladay	58	5	1	0	1
Angelo Grose	50	4	1	0	2
Derrick Harmon	43	11	5	10	2
Zion Young	41	6	3	5	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Simeon Barrow Jr.	30	8	6	3	1
Derrick Harmon	43	11	5	10	2
Khris Bogle	37	8	4	6	0
Zion Young	41	6	3	5	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Eddie Pleasant III	11	0	0	0	5
Zion Young	41	6	3	5	3
Derrick Harmon	43	11	5	10	2

Minnesota's OC Greg Harbaugh Jr.

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Athan Kaliakmanis	213	395	54%	2696	18	7	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Athan Kaliakmanis	92	251	3	2.7	20
Zach Evans	9	58	0	6.4	40
Marquese Williams	6	13	0	2.2	7
Daniel Jackson	3	13	0	4.3	5

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Daniel Jackson	75	863	4	11.5	39
Elijah Spencer (Tr)	52	685	6	13.2	29
Nick Kallerup	9	117	0	13.0	44
Frank Bierman	1	13	0	13.0	13

View Minnesota's Full Roster

Minnesota's DC Nick Monroe

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cody Lindenberg	94	5	1	3	6
Danny Striggow	52	6	5	6	1
Jack Henderson (Tr)	44	9	6	1	1
Justin Walley	42	2	1	1	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jack Henderson (Tr)	44	9	6	1	1
Danny Striggow	52	6	5	6	1
Jah Joyner	32	6	5	9	7
Cody Lindenberg	94	5	1	3	6

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Justin Walley	42	2	1	1	10
Jah Joyner	32	6	5	9	7
Cody Lindenberg	94	5	1	3	6