Sat, Oct 25 2025
·
Week 9
·
🏟 Acrisure Stadium
Pittsburgh, PA
·
Turf
·
68,400 cap
NC State✈ 328 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Pittsburgh
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Pittsburgh entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Pittsburgh wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Pittsburgh wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Pittsburgh -5.5
O/U 52.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Pittsburgh
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
NC State 2025 Schedule
NC State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | NC State vs East Carolina | -12.5W24–17 | 58.5 | W24–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | NC State vs Virginia | -3.0W35–31 | 53.0 | W35–31 | O | Y |
| Thu 9/11 | NC State at Wake Forest | -7.5W34–24 | 52.5 | W34–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | NC State at Duke | +3.0L33–45 | 57.5 | L33–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | NC State vs Virginia Tech | -10.0L21–23 | 57.5 | L21–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | NC State vs Campbell | -42.5W56–10 | 61.5 | W56–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | NC State at Notre Dame | +23.5L7–36 | 59.5 | L7–36 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/25 | NC State at Pittsburgh | +5.5L34–53 | 52.5 | L34–53 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | NC State vs Georgia Tech | +4.5W48–36 | 58.5 | W48–36 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | NC State at Miami | +16.5L7–41 | 54.5 | L7–41 | U | N |
| Fri 11/21 | NC State vs Florida State | +7.0W21–11 | 58.5 | W21–11 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | NC State vs North Carolina | -7.0W42–19 | 48.5 | W42–19 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/19 | NC State vs Memphis | -6.0W31–7 | 56.5 | W31–7 | U | Y |
Pittsburgh 2025 Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Pittsburgh vs Duquesne | -39.5W61–9 | 58.5 | W61–9 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Pittsburgh vs Central Michigan | -21.5W45–17 | 48.5 | W45–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Pittsburgh at West Virginia | -6.5L24–31 | 54.5 | L24–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Pittsburgh vs Louisville | +3.0L27–34 | 53.5 | L27–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Pittsburgh vs Boston College | -6.5W48–7 | 54.5 | W48–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Pittsburgh at Florida State | +10.5W34–31 | 56.5 | W34–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Pittsburgh at Syracuse | -9.5W30–13 | 54.5 | W30–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Pittsburgh vs NC State | -5.5W53–34 | 52.5 | W53–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Pittsburgh at Stanford | -13.5W35–20 | 51.5 | W35–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame | +12.5L15–37 | 55.5 | L15–37 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech | +2.5W42–28 | 61.5 | W42–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Pittsburgh vs Miami | +6.5L7–38 | 49.5 | L7–38 | U | N |
| Sat 12/27 | Pittsburgh vs East Carolina | -13.5L17–23 | 51.5 | L17–23 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Pittsburgh Edge
Pittsburgh +1.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Pittsburgh Edge
Pittsburgh +25.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Pittsburgh
5 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Pittsburgh
86.4 — 6.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Pittsburgh won by 19
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Pittsburgh with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
NC State
Dave Doeren #1
87–64 (58%)
· Yr 13 at school
OC
Kurt Roper
Yr 1
#1
DC
D. J. Eliot
Yr 1
#1
Pittsburgh
Pat Narduzzi #1
72–55 (57%)
· Yr 11 at school
OC
Kade Bell
Yr 2
#1
DC
Randy Bates
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓