Fri, Nov 22 2024
·
Week 13
·
🏟 Bobby Dodd Stadium at Historic Grant Field
Atlanta, GA
·
Turf
·
55,000 cap
NC State✈ 351 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors NC State,
while Game Control favors Georgia Tech.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
NC State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Georgia Tech wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Georgia Tech -7.5
O/U 51.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
NC State 2024 Schedule
NC State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | NC State vs Western Carolina | -32.5W38–21 | 60.5 | W38–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | NC State vs Tennessee | +10.0L10–51 | 60.5 | L10–51 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | NC State vs Louisiana Tech | -20.5W30–20 | 47.5 | W30–20 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | NC State at Clemson | +17.0L35–59 | 44.0 | L35–59 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | NC State vs Northern Illinois | -7.0W24–17 | 46.0 | W24–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | NC State vs Wake Forest | -4.0L30–34 | 52.5 | L30–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | NC State vs Syracuse | +1.0L17–24 | 51.5 | L17–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | NC State at California | +9.5W24–23 | 46.0 | W24–23 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | NC State vs Stanford | -10.0W59–28 | 46.5 | W59–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | NC State vs Duke | -3.5L19–29 | 51.5 | L19–29 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/21 | NC State at Georgia Tech | +7.5L29–30 | 51.5 | L29–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | NC State at North Carolina | +2.5W35–30 | 54.5 | W35–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/28 | NC State vs East Carolina | -7.5L21–26 | 61.5 | L21–26 | U | N |
Georgia Tech 2024 Schedule
Georgia Tech's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/24 | Georgia Tech vs Florida State | +10.0W24–21 | 54.5 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 8/31 | Georgia Tech vs Georgia State | -20.5W35–12 | 57.0 | W35–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Georgia Tech at Syracuse | -2.5L28–31 | 60.5 | L28–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Georgia Tech vs VMI | -42.5W59–7 | 53.5 | W59–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Georgia Tech at Louisville | +9.5L19–31 | 56.0 | L19–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Georgia Tech vs Duke | -10.0W24–14 | 52.5 | W24–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Georgia Tech at North Carolina | -3.5W41–34 | 60.5 | W41–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Georgia Tech vs Notre Dame | +14.0L13–31 | 49.5 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech | +11.0L6–21 | 52.0 | L6–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Georgia Tech vs Miami | +9.5W28–23 | 64.5 | W28–23 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/21 | Georgia Tech vs NC State | -7.5W30–29 | 51.5 | W30–29 | O | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Georgia Tech at Georgia | +17.5L42–44 | 48.5 | L42–44 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/27 | Georgia Tech vs Vanderbilt | -3.0L27–35 | 49.0 | L27–35 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
NC State Edge
NC State +0.89
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Georgia Tech Edge
Georgia Tech +11.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Georgia Tech
57.9 — 17.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Georgia Tech won by 1
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
NC State
Dave Doeren #1
81–58 (58%)
· Yr 12 at school
OC
Robert Anae
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tony Gibson
Yr 3
#1
Georgia Tech
Brent Key #1
11–10 (52%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Buster Faulkner
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tyler Santucci
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓