Miami at NC State Week 10 College Football Matchup Miami at NC State Matchup - Week 10
Sun, Nov 5 2023 · Week 10 · 🏟 Carter-Finley Stadium Raleigh, NC · Turf · 57,583 cap
Miami✈ 686 miSame TZ
Away
6 20
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Miami
24
NCST +6.5
NC State
23
P&R Line Miami -1
P&R Total O/U 47.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Miami -6.5 · O/U 44.0
Matchup Prediction
Miami has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Miami entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Miami wins
Solid
Game Control
49.4%
Miami wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Miami -6.5
O/U 44.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Miami · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 NC State 2nd straight Home Game
Miami 2023 Schedule
Miami's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1Miami vs Miami (OH)-16.5W38–345.0W38–3UY
Sat 9/9Miami vs Texas A&M+3.0W48–3350.5W48–33OY
Thu 9/14Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-54.0W48–763.5W48–7UN
Sat 9/23Miami at Temple-23.0W41–746.5W41–7OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/7Miami vs Georgia Tech-19.0L20–2357.0L20–23UN
Sat 10/14Miami at North Carolina+2.5L31–4157.5L31–41ON
Sat 10/21Miami vs Clemson+3.0W28–2048.5W28–20UY
Sat 10/28Miami vs Virginia-18.5W29–2648.0W29–26ON
Sat 11/4Miami at NC State-6.5L6–2044.0L6–20UN
Sat 11/11Miami at Florida State+14.5L20–2750.5L20–27UY
Sat 11/18Miami vs Louisville-1.5L31–3846.5L31–38ON
Fri 11/24Miami at Boston College-13.5W45–2050.5W45–20OY
Thu 12/28Miami vs Rutgers+3.0L24–3141.0L24–31ON
NC State 2023 Schedule
NC State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/31NC State at UConn-14.5W24–1447.5W24–14UN
Sat 9/9NC State vs Notre Dame+7.0L24–4549.5L24–45ON
Sat 9/16NC State vs VMI-42.5W45–751.0W45–7ON
Fri 9/22NC State at Virginia-8.5W24–2147.5W24–21UN
Fri 9/29NC State vs Louisville+3.5L10–1356.5L10–13UY
Sat 10/7NC State vs Marshall-6.5W48–4144.0W48–41OY
Sat 10/14NC State at Duke+3.5L3–2444.0L3–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/28NC State vs Clemson+9.5W24–1744.5W24–17UY
Sat 11/4NC State vs Miami+6.5W20–644.0W20–6UY
Sat 11/11NC State at Wake Forest+0.5W26–642.5W26–6UY
Sat 11/18NC State at Virginia Tech+2.5W35–2840.5W35–28OY
Sat 11/25NC State vs North Carolina+2.0W39–2055.0W39–20OY
Thu 12/28NC State vs Kansas State+3.0L19–2848.5L19–28UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Miami PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Miami
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Miami #37
+0.366
NC State #89
+0.292
Miami Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Miami #28
+0.533
NC State #95
+0.423
Miami Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Miami #56
0.167
NC State #22
0.186
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
NC State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Miami #56
+7.760
NC State #47
+8.646
NC State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Miami #52
+0.821
NC State #100
+0.780
Miami Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Miami #65
70.6
NC State #49
69.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
NC State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Miami
24.1
NC State
6.6
Offense Rating
Miami
27.0
NC State
18.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Miami
2.9
NC State
11.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Miami Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Miami #26
1.57
NC State #56
0.29
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami #49
1.00
NC State #30
1.14
Miami +1.29
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Miami Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Miami #1
53.3
NC State #1
50.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami #52
26.9
NC State #26
30.3
Miami +2.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
NC State
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
NC State
50.1 — 18.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
NC State won by 14
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Miami, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Miami
Mario Cristobal #1
8–7 (53%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Shannon Dawson Yr 1 #1
DC Lance Guidry Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
NC State
Dave Doeren #1
74–55 (58%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Robert Anae Yr 1 #1
DC Tony Gibson Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself