Matchup Prediction
Miami
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Miami entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Miami wins
Solid
Game Control
49.4%
Miami wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Miami -6.5
O/U 44.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Miami
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Miami 2023 Schedule
Miami's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/1 | Miami vs Miami (OH) | -16.5W38–3 | 45.0 | W38–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Miami vs Texas A&M | +3.0W48–33 | 50.5 | W48–33 | O | Y |
| Thu 9/14 | Miami vs Bethune-Cookman | -54.0W48–7 | 63.5 | W48–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Miami at Temple | -23.0W41–7 | 46.5 | W41–7 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/7 | Miami vs Georgia Tech | -19.0L20–23 | 57.0 | L20–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Miami at North Carolina | +2.5L31–41 | 57.5 | L31–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Miami vs Clemson | +3.0W28–20 | 48.5 | W28–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Miami vs Virginia | -18.5W29–26 | 48.0 | W29–26 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Miami at NC State | -6.5L6–20 | 44.0 | L6–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Miami at Florida State | +14.5L20–27 | 50.5 | L20–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Miami vs Louisville | -1.5L31–38 | 46.5 | L31–38 | O | N |
| Fri 11/24 | Miami at Boston College | -13.5W45–20 | 50.5 | W45–20 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/28 | Miami vs Rutgers | +3.0L24–31 | 41.0 | L24–31 | O | N |
NC State 2023 Schedule
NC State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/31 | NC State at UConn | -14.5W24–14 | 47.5 | W24–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | NC State vs Notre Dame | +7.0L24–45 | 49.5 | L24–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | NC State vs VMI | -42.5W45–7 | 51.0 | W45–7 | O | N |
| Fri 9/22 | NC State at Virginia | -8.5W24–21 | 47.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Fri 9/29 | NC State vs Louisville | +3.5L10–13 | 56.5 | L10–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | NC State vs Marshall | -6.5W48–41 | 44.0 | W48–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | NC State at Duke | +3.5L3–24 | 44.0 | L3–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | NC State vs Clemson | +9.5W24–17 | 44.5 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | NC State vs Miami | +6.5W20–6 | 44.0 | W20–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | NC State at Wake Forest | +0.5W26–6 | 42.5 | W26–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | NC State at Virginia Tech | +2.5W35–28 | 40.5 | W35–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | NC State vs North Carolina | +2.0W39–20 | 55.0 | W39–20 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/28 | NC State vs Kansas State | +3.0L19–28 | 48.5 | L19–28 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Miami
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Miami Edge
Miami +1.29
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Miami Edge
Miami +2.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
NC State
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
NC State
50.1 — 18.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
NC State won by 14
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Miami, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Miami
Mario Cristobal #1
8–7 (53%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Shannon Dawson
Yr 1
#1
DC
Lance Guidry
Yr 1
#1
NC State
Dave Doeren #1
74–55 (58%)
· Yr 11 at school
OC
Robert Anae
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tony Gibson
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

