Sat, Nov 30 2024
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Week 14
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🏟 Kenan Memorial Stadium
Chapel Hill, NC
·
Turf
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62,980 cap
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors NC State,
while Game Control favors North Carolina.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
NC State wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
North Carolina wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
North Carolina -2.5
O/U 54.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → NC State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
NC State 2024 Schedule
NC State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | NC State vs Western Carolina | -32.5W38–21 | 60.5 | W38–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | NC State vs Tennessee | +10.0L10–51 | 60.5 | L10–51 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | NC State vs Louisiana Tech | -20.5W30–20 | 47.5 | W30–20 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | NC State at Clemson | +17.0L35–59 | 44.0 | L35–59 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | NC State vs Northern Illinois | -7.0W24–17 | 46.0 | W24–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | NC State vs Wake Forest | -4.0L30–34 | 52.5 | L30–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | NC State vs Syracuse | +1.0L17–24 | 51.5 | L17–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | NC State at California | +9.5W24–23 | 46.0 | W24–23 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | NC State vs Stanford | -10.0W59–28 | 46.5 | W59–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | NC State vs Duke | -3.5L19–29 | 51.5 | L19–29 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/21 | NC State at Georgia Tech | +7.5L29–30 | 51.5 | L29–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | NC State at North Carolina | +2.5W35–30 | 54.5 | W35–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/28 | NC State vs East Carolina | -7.5L21–26 | 61.5 | L21–26 | U | N |
North Carolina 2024 Schedule
North Carolina's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | North Carolina at Minnesota | -2.0W19–17 | 52.5 | W19–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | North Carolina vs Charlotte | -21.5W38–20 | 47.5 | W38–20 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | North Carolina vs North Carolina Central | -37.5W45–10 | 57.5 | W45–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | North Carolina vs James Madison | -10.0L50–70 | 48.0 | L50–70 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | North Carolina at Duke | -1.0L20–21 | 55.5 | L20–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | North Carolina vs Pittsburgh | +2.5L24–34 | 63.0 | L24–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | North Carolina vs Georgia Tech | +3.5L34–41 | 60.5 | L34–41 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/26 | North Carolina at Virginia | +3.5W41–14 | 58.5 | W41–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | North Carolina at Florida State | -2.5W35–11 | 50.5 | W35–11 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | North Carolina vs Wake Forest | -10.5W31–24 | 64.5 | W31–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | North Carolina at Boston College | -2.0L21–41 | 50.5 | L21–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | North Carolina vs NC State | -2.5L30–35 | 54.5 | L30–35 | O | N |
| Sat 12/28 | North Carolina vs UConn | -2.0L14–27 | 53.5 | L14–27 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ NC State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ NC State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ NC State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
NC State Edge
NC State +0.90
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
North Carolina Edge
North Carolina +12.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
NC State
Dave Doeren #1
81–58 (58%)
· Yr 12 at school
OC
Robert Anae
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tony Gibson
Yr 3
#1
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
38–27 (59%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Chip Lindsey
Yr 2
#1
DC
Geoff Collins
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓