East Carolina at NC State Week 1 College Football Matchup East Carolina at NC State Matchup - Week 1
Sat, Dec 28 2024 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium Annapolis, MD · Turf · 34,000 cap
East Carolina✈ 238 miSame TZ NC State✈ 251 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
26 21
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
East Carolina
29
ECU +7.5
NC State
32
P&R Line NC State -2.5
P&R Total O/U 60.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas NC State -7.5 · O/U 61.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors NC State, while Game Control favors East Carolina. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
NC State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
East Carolina wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
NC State -7.5
O/U 61.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → NC State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
East Carolina 2024 Schedule
East Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31East Carolina vs Norfolk State-31.5W42–351.5W42–3UY
Sat 9/7East Carolina at Old Dominion+1.5W20–1453.5W20–14UY
Sat 9/14East Carolina vs App State-0.5L19–2156.5L19–21UN
Sat 9/21East Carolina at Liberty+7.5L24–3555.0L24–35ON
Sat 9/28East Carolina vs UTSA-2.0W30–2053.5W30–20UY
Sat 10/5East Carolina at Charlotte-9.5L24–5547.5L24–55ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19East Carolina at Army+17.5L28–4554.0L28–45OY
Sat 10/26East Carolina vs Temple-8.5W56–3448.5W56–34OY
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/7East Carolina vs Florida Atlantic-5.5W49–1458.5W49–14OY
Thu 11/14East Carolina at Tulsa-16.0W38–3163.5W38–31ON
Sat 11/23East Carolina at North Texas+2.5W40–2873.5W40–28UY
Fri 11/29East Carolina vs Navy-2.5L20–3454.0L20–34UN
Sat 12/28East Carolina vs NC State+7.5W26–2161.5W26–21UY
NC State 2024 Schedule
NC State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29NC State vs Western Carolina-32.5W38–2160.5W38–21UN
Sat 9/7NC State vs Tennessee+10.0L10–5160.5L10–51ON
Sat 9/14NC State vs Louisiana Tech-20.5W30–2047.5W30–20ON
Sat 9/21NC State at Clemson+17.0L35–5944.0L35–59ON
Sat 9/28NC State vs Northern Illinois-7.0W24–1746.0W24–17UN
Sat 10/5NC State vs Wake Forest-4.0L30–3452.5L30–34ON
Sat 10/12NC State vs Syracuse+1.0L17–2451.5L17–24UN
Sat 10/19NC State at California+9.5W24–2346.0W24–23OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2NC State vs Stanford-10.0W59–2846.5W59–28OY
Sat 11/9NC State vs Duke-3.5L19–2951.5L19–29UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/21NC State at Georgia Tech+7.5L29–3051.5L29–30OY
Sat 11/30NC State at North Carolina+2.5W35–3054.5W35–30OY
Sat 12/28NC State vs East Carolina-7.5L21–2661.5L21–26UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ NC State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ NC State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ NC State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
East Carolina #49
+0.412
NC State #26
+0.413
Even
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
East Carolina #54
+0.467
NC State #24
+0.681
NC State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
East Carolina #69
0.159
NC State #16
0.196
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
NC State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
East Carolina #83
+7.572
NC State #61
+7.820
NC State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
East Carolina #62
+0.843
NC State #36
+0.846
NC State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
East Carolina #37
69.6
NC State #73
71.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
East Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
NC State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
East Carolina
1.4
NC State
6.6
Offense Rating
East Carolina
15.8
NC State
18.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
East Carolina
14.3
NC State
11.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? NC State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
East Carolina #34
1.27
NC State #17
1.55
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
East Carolina #92
1.46
NC State #112
1.82
NC State +0.27
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? East Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
East Carolina #1
47.4
NC State #1
32.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
East Carolina #53
35.6
NC State #105
46.9
East Carolina +14.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
East Carolina
1 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
East Carolina
16.1 — 63.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
East Carolina won by 5
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
East Carolina
Mike Houston #1
24–34 (41%) · Yr 6 at school
OC John David Baker Yr 1 #1
DC Blake Harrell Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
NC State
Dave Doeren #1
81–58 (58%) · Yr 12 at school
OC Robert Anae Yr 2 #1
DC Tony Gibson Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself